Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[maryland-bills-fan]

Here is another angle.  I say, NEVER draft a player in the first round IF his teammate at the same position is also a "sure first round pick".

 

If a college team has two good players at the same position, especially if they are often playing at the same time, what happens is that they dominate the opponent.    Two good defensive tackles will dominate the oppoent's offensive line because they don't see double teams and there are not enough chip blocks and help-outs to keep them both under control.   A DE playing with two great DT's is in a good place-  the QB gets pushed out of the pocket and the OT gets no help.       Two good linebackers, each look better because colleges can not get a hat on both of them.   With two good wide receivers, the #1 CB on the other team can cover one of them but the other is going up against a poorer CB.  

 

Clemson's defensive line has Williams, Ferrel and Lawrence pegged for the first round. Would they look as good if they were all playing on a weaker college team and they were the only stud on the d-line? . https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/21/clemson-defensive-line-2019-draft-close-friends-top-prospects   

 

Somehow Iowa has two first round tight ends this year.   What are the odds?  

 

Do you remember when the Bills drafted Cousinou and Nelson at LB?  How did that work out?

 

Just a caution.

[GreggTX]

Because we want to reach for a player at a position of need with a top 10 pick?

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Seems like Hockenson won't even be available by the time we pick. It's not a lock but Lions seem 'HOT' for him.

[racketmaster]

I don't believe Hockenson will be drafted at 9 but if he is selected the Bills could certanly do worse. Hockenson is one of the safest players in the draft and he should have a long and productive career, barring injury. But I just don't see the value in picking Hockenson at 9 for the following reasons:

 

1. People are sleeping on Tyler Croft. The Bills signed him quickly in free agency and he appeared to be high on their target list. He got a decent contract and when he got the starting spot in 2017 he was a productive tight end for the Bengals. I believe Croft is still only 25 years old and we may not have seen his best football yet. I do believe the Bills need to draft a tight end this year, but I don't think it is as big a need as some would have us believe.

 

2. The tight end class this year is very deep. It begins with Hockenson and his teammate Fant but there are at least 10-12 interesting prospects at this position. A player like Trevon Wesco can be had in the 5th and if you watch his blocking ability (excellent) and how nimble he is with the ball in his hands he has some potential. There are a lot of interesting tight end prospects in the middle rounds from Jayce Sternberger to Kaden Smith. Many of these players show excellent potential and have had excellent college production. If the Bills wait, they can still find a good prospect in the middle rounds.

 

3. If you examine the quality and elite tight ends playing in the league right now, you will notice that the majority of them come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, when I looked at the numbers more came from the 2nd (30%) and 3rd (30%) than the 1st round (20%). And with the depth this year at the position I see no reason to think this trend won't continue. Hockenson may be the safest tight end pick, but can anyone really say that he will be better than a player like Jayce Sternberger. To me it is too close and for that reason I would wait at the position and draft for value beginning in the second round. And with the depth this year, I think there will be a productive player or two found in the 4th and 5th rounds.

[whorlnut]

5 hours ago, Dopey said:

Apples to oranges. Come on, man! You start with naming already established te's who were drafted after the 1st round, then when confronted with the fact the good dl have been drafted after the 1st round, you somehow want to change the narrative to players not even drafted yet?!  I am Dopey, but even I can see how illogical that argument is. Can't you?

I’m convinced Cornette is an older gentleman who is stuck in the 60’s and 70’s.  Back in the day when defense was more important than anything else. Well...now you have to have a top offense if you want to keep up with other great teams. We need a top TE. Period. We can find a solid defensive player later on, we could even trade back into the first for Lawrence or Wilkins if he starts to slip. But we aren’t going anywhere if we don’t improve our offense. 

5 hours ago, OJ Tom said:

While I like the idea of having a good TE, I wonder if that is the type pf receiver that will most benefit Allen at this point in his career. Allen is a home run hitter. A home run hitter needs guys that are fast, and can get deep....not a big guy that catches passes 10 yards downfield. In fact, the short passing game is the weakness in Allen's game.

 

I'm not sure a TE will be the "safety blanket" that  most people here seem to think it will be for Allen.

 

 

And maybe, just maybe, the biggest douchebag to ever play the position. Well, besides his son....

Is Allen a home run hitter?  Yes. But there comes times in every game where you need 7 yards to move the chains. That’s where your TE comes into play. McD himself said that. I think it’s more of a possibility than any of us realize. 

[MrEpsYtown]

56 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

 

Is Allen a home run hitter?  Yes. But there comes times in every game where you need 7 yards to move the chains. That’s where your TE comes into play. McD himself said that. I think it’s more of a possibility than any of us realize. 

 

I agree with this. And honestly he threw the ball a good amount to his tight end Jacob Hollister during his junior year. Having all of that speed on the outside with Brown and Foster should open things up underneath for the tight end and Beasley. Defenses cant cover everything and spy Josh Allen. 

Edited April 19, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[JM57]

2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Here is another angle.  I say, NEVER draft a player in the first round IF his teammate at the same position is also a "sure first round pick".

 

If a college team has two good players at the same position, especially if they are often playing at the same time, what happens is that they dominate the opponent.    Two good defensive tackles will dominate the oppoent's offensive line because they don't see double teams and there are not enough chip blocks and help-outs to keep them both under control.   A DE playing with two great DT's is in a good place-  the QB gets pushed out of the pocket and the OT gets no help.       Two good linebackers, each look better because colleges can not get a hat on both of them.   With two good wide receivers, the #1 CB on the other team can cover one of them but the other is going up against a poorer CB.  

 

Clemson's defensive line has Williams, Ferrel and Lawrence pegged for the first round. Would they look as good if they were all playing on a weaker college team and they were the only stud on the d-line? . https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/21/clemson-defensive-line-2019-draft-close-friends-top-prospects   

 

Somehow Iowa has two first round tight ends this year.   What are the odds?  

 

Do you remember when the Bills drafted Cousinou and Nelson at LB?  How did that work out?

 

Just a caution.

I understand your logic but could you tell me who played running back, wide receiver or even quarterback for Iowa? 

 

That offense was Hockenson and Fant. If they were wide receivers you wouldn't be saying the same thing. LSU had Jarvis Landry and OBJ on offense at the same time. Guess no one should have drafted them early either, eh?

[maryland-bills-fan]

39 minutes ago, JM57 said:

I understand your logic but could you tell me who played running back, wide receiver or even quarterback for Iowa? 

 

That offense was Hockenson and Fant. If they were wide receivers you wouldn't be saying the same thing. LSU had Jarvis Landry and OBJ on offense at the same time. Guess no one should have drafted them early either, eh?

I don't follow college football very closely, so without looking it up I don't have clue as to who plays those positions for Iowa.   I imagine that Iowa played with at least two wide receivers and if you send one of them out on deep patterns every play, the defense would have to have a safety on top. So 3 defensive backs are 15-30 yards downfield.    If they play two tight ends, then at worst one is covered by a smaller safety and the other is covered by a usually slower linebacker.  If the tight ends are both pretty good, you have some mismatches to exploit.

 

Iowa was 8-5 and 4-5 in the Big Ten.  I don't think that they are introducing a new offensive concept that everybody is going to be moving towards.   The top 2 TE's caught 88 passes and the top 2 WR caught 54 passes.  (looked that up).   Are they the lucky benefactors of a gimmic offense?   Are they Bills going to use a two TE passing package?    I am still leary of drafting either one of them in the first round.     We will see how the NFL views it in a week.

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by maryland-bills-fan

[Rob's House]

My preference would be an elite prospect on the DL ap 9, but there's a decent chance all the blue chippers will be gone by then.

 

If Hockenson is as good as advertised he'd be a great pick. Sure, a lot of good TEs come from the mid rounds, but that's true of most positions, and plenty of mediocre TEs come in those rounds too - we've had a few of them.

 

Guys like Gronk & Kelce went later, but if teams redrafted knowing how their careers would go neither would have made it out of the top 10.

 

A smart, shifty, athletic TE with good hands and superior blocking ability helps the offense in a lot of ways. I'll be happy if he's the pick.

[PIZ]

 

 

 

[Nihilarian]

If you look at some of the top tight ends in the league and if teams could have a do-over to draft with guys like 49ers TE George Kittle, who was a 5th round pick from Iowa in 2017. Last year, 136 targets 88 receptions for 1377 yards, 5 TDs. Anyone think he would last until round 5 if redrafted now? The thing is Kittle played injured for 797 of those yards with a rib injury and he wore two rib protectors and still played.

 

The way teams are now utilizing the TE in the passing game like Zach Ertz 116 receptions in 2018, Travis Kelce 103 receptions in 2018, George Kittle 88 receptions in 2018. I think teams are now putting more importance on the position. 

 

I think Hock, Irv Smith and Noah Fant will be drafted a lot earlier then people think as I see all three as first round picks. Times are a changing.

[Alphadawg7]

15 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Name for me, please, the DL available in rounds 2-4 of this year's Draft that Beane can take, that are as good as Oliver, Sweat, Gary and Christian Wilkins.

 

Jerffery Simmons.  TOP 5 OVERALL prospect before the injury in the offseason. Higher ranked than any of the guys you just listed before the recent injury. 

 

Tillery is a very good prospect too.  

[Rocket94]

On 4/7/2019 at 2:17 AM, Buffalo716 said:

I think he is a freak and I don’t say that often.

 

i think he is going top 15 all day. His upside is unreal and he can already ball

 

Although neither him or Milano are prototypical SLBrs a group of Edmunds, Milano and White would instantly be very good with the potential to be elite 

 

He plays like pat willis but with 4.4 speed.. But Willis was much bigger... which shows you how hard White plays 

I totally agree. Either one of the Devins!

[skibum]

There is no way he is the best player available at #9.

[Rocket94]

4 minutes ago, skibum said:

There is no way he is the best player available at #9.

Devin White? If the Bills are thinking defense and he is on their board...why not? 

[Cornette's Commentary]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Jerffery Simmons.  TOP 5 OVERALL prospect before the injury in the offseason. Higher ranked than any of the guys you just listed before the recent injury. 

 

Tillery is a very good prospect too.  

"Unfortunately for Simmons, he suffered a devastating blow during combine preparation, tearing an ACL. That injury could cost him some of, if not all of, his rookie season in the NFL."

"Teams have red flagged Tillery's draft report with serious character concerns. Every source with a handful of teams who went through Notre Dame heard about significant character issues with Tillery. It was so renowned that even during TV broadcasts, there were mentions of Tillery being a bad teammate and that he was trying to change that. Team sources say not only are they concerned about Tillery in the locker room, they also are worried about him failing tests and getting suspensions in the NFL. Tillery is a known partier, so it hurt him to miss out on the Senior Bowl interviews to address those concerns and work on convincing teams that he has grown out of those past behaviors."

- Walter Football

[JM57]

15 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

"Unfortunately for Simmons, he suffered a devastating blow during combine preparation, tearing an ACL. That injury could cost him some of, if not all of, his rookie season in the NFL."

"Teams have red flagged Tillery's draft report with serious character concerns. Every source with a handful of teams who went through Notre Dame heard about significant character issues with Tillery. It was so renowned that even during TV broadcasts, there were mentions of Tillery being a bad teammate and that he was trying to change that. Team sources say not only are they concerned about Tillery in the locker room, they also are worried about him failing tests and getting suspensions in the NFL. Tillery is a known partier, so it hurt him to miss out on the Senior Bowl interviews to address those concerns and work on convincing teams that he has grown out of those past behaviors."

- Walter Football

Walter Football is not a good source. Try again.

27 minutes ago, skibum said:

There is no way he is the best player available at #9.

You'd be surprised. Please forgive me as I post from my phone and often lose messages as I type them if I switch between tabs to research information, so I'll be editing this over the next few minutes. That will allow me to not lose it completely...

 

TJ Hockenson rankings on big boards:

Gil Brandt: 6th

Mel Kiper: 7th

Todd Mcshay: 7th

Dane Brugler: 6th

Josh Norris: 13th

Daniel Jeremiah: 5th

Matt Miller: 5th

Edited April 19, 2019 by JM57

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

"Unfortunately for Simmons, he suffered a devastating blow during combine preparation, tearing an ACL. That injury could cost him some of, if not all of, his rookie season in the NFL."

"Teams have red flagged Tillery's draft report with serious character concerns. Every source with a handful of teams who went through Notre Dame heard about significant character issues with Tillery. It was so renowned that even during TV broadcasts, there were mentions of Tillery being a bad teammate and that he was trying to change that. Team sources say not only are they concerned about Tillery in the locker room, they also are worried about him failing tests and getting suspensions in the NFL. Tillery is a known partier, so it hurt him to miss out on the Senior Bowl interviews to address those concerns and work on convincing teams that he has grown out of those past behaviors."

- Walter Football

 

Water football sucks.  It’s terribly inaccurate every year in its pre draft rankings.

 

So what you are telling me is that you don’t actually know anything about any of the players in the draft.  All you do is copy and paste other posters comments or random things on the internet.  Wake me up when you have your own thoughts, watch these players play, or know anything about drafting.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I figured i’d Bump this thread since a similar Hock at 9 thread just popped up.  Lots of good reaction in here.  I am not hoping for him at 9 but I wouldn’t be mad at it either.

[Peace Frog]

We could take him at 9 and still find great value at 40 and 74 for OT and IDL.