Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[Logic]

Your post is well thought out and makes logical sense.

I can't help but wonder if you're in the right church, but the wrong pew. In other words, I wonder if McBeane are thinking along the exact same lines as you, but they plan to select a different tight end in, say, round 2 or 3. Perhaps they like an Irv Smith or a Dawson Knox or a Kahale Warring.

I think a lot of it will come down to whether or not Ed Oliver is on the board at 9. If he is, I think he's the slam dunk pick. If he's NOT, I could absolutely see Buffalo trading back or even just standing pat and taking their tight end of choice.

The key to this whole draft, to me, is Beane's recent comment that "if a position is particularly deep in a draft, it allows you to wait a round or two on your need". That statement could apply to the defensive line OR tight end in this year's draft, as both positions are unusually deep. Do they take a defensive lineman early, knowing that they can still get a talented tight end in round 2 or 3? Or do they take one of the "big three" (Hock, Fant, Smith), knowing that they can still get quality lineman into the 3rd and 4th rounds.

The last thing I'll say is this: if they select Hockenson, I'll be thrilled. Aside from Oliver, Hock is the one player likely to be available at 9 that I think will be an All Pro level talent for the next decade. This early in a rebuild, that's what the Bills should be after with their top 10 pick: an All Pro level talent. I think Hockenson would be an excellent choice.
 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Youre starting to sway me Ill admit.

After years of Gronk eating us alive I would love to have the next Gronk here.

 

Still think its Ed Oliver tho if available. And a trade up for Noah F or Nkeal Harry in later 1st round. 

[Buffalo03]

Except he hasn't been said to be coming in on a pre draft visit and no word from anyone on the Bills meeting with him at the combine or holding private workouts with him. I think it could be because they know they aren't taking a TE that high so they are focusing on other potential top 10 to top 15 prospects. They could also be trying to throw everyone off and make everyone think they aren't going that way and then take him at the draft. I just don't see it however

[NewEra]

While I wouldn’t be upset about it, I think the Jags will take him at 7.

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

I hate the idea of drafting a tight end in the first round.  Excluding the all time greats - Gronk, Tony G, etc -  a really good NFL tight end is not worth a first round pick. 

 

Think about it. Lets assume you draft a really good tight end, by NFL standards.  That TE is the equivalent of the worst blocker on the line and maybe the third best WR on the team.  A really good TE is good for like 600+ yards. Zay got that many yards, and he is only a WR2, but still the board wants to see him cut.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that kind of production. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Will there be a learning curve for a rookie TE?   Of course, but I think McBeane sees the 2019 season as a stepping stone for 2020 (I still think we will be much improved and make the playoffs in 2019).   2019 will be the season that Hockenson learns the pro game, gels with the O-line, and develops a rapport with Allen.  I believe the plan is for this team to be good enough to contend for a Super Bowl in 2020 if Allen continues to develop.  I think Allen having a weapon like T.J. Hockenson around him is more impactful to this team taking that next step than adding another great defensive player this year.

 

 

 

Point A -- the Bills won six games last season, most of their games were snoozefests except maybe when Allen was in, and half of their losses were by 20 or more points.  It's not going to take much to be "much improved" without winning enough games to even sniff the playoffs.

 

Point B -- if the Bills fail to "contend for a Super Bowl in 2020" I'm sure you'll simply see 2020 as another "stepping stone".

 

Point C --I don't care if Hockensen is the best TE in the draft because that may mean nothing -- like Manuel being the best QB in the 2013 draft.  I want the Bills to draft the BPA who's on the board at #9.   The only positions they shouldn't consider at #9 are QB, kicker, and punter.  They could use upgrades everywhere else, including at MLB so they could move Edmunds to the outside which may be a better fit for his skill set.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, KRT88 said:

How many OL are we lining up every game? 

 

Most of the FA OLers the Bills signed would be depth on good NFL offensive teams, so there's plenty of room to upgrade through the draft.

[JaCrispy]

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Most of the FA OLers the Bills signed would be depth on good NFL offensive teams, so there's plenty of room to upgrade through the draft.

Yup, I still is taking OL in one of the top 2 rounds

Edited April 6, 2019 by JaCrispy

[NoSaint]

I refuse to buy the tight ends are as valuable as receivers and offenses are being built around them narrative. 

 

John brown would be a top 5 paid tight end based on his salary. Is anyone talking about building an offense around him?

 

Guys like Kelce are most effective when you have other weapons pulling the premiere coverage guys off them and they get stuck matches up against a LB. that isn’t building your offense around someone, that’s having an elite role player. 

[YodaMan79]

A TE at pick #9 would be steep price to pay.  I think you can find really good TEs after the 1st round, or earliest in the 20s.  In the past 10 years only one TE has been picked lower than 19th (OJ Howard), Eric Ebron at 10 in 2014.  The sweet spot to getting a really good TE is between picks 25-100.  History would point to this being a really poor decision/value, and bring back memories of Donte Whitner.  Hopefully this would be a former Bills FO type of move, and they don't prove to be this stupid.

 

For those who want to think a little:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=TE&type=position

Edited April 6, 2019 by YodaMan79

[TPS]

@Inigo Montoya I certainly like him and would be happy with the pick, but...

if you’re McBean and you believe this is the last top 10 pick you’ll have over the next 5-7 years, would you rather draft an all pro at DL or at TE with this pick? 

I think the answer is DL. 

[Bangarang]

Solid player but I want more than solid with a top 10 pick. 

[papazoid]

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

[YodaMan79]

10 minutes ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

So he's worth being picked as the highest TE over the past 12 + years?

Edited April 6, 2019 by YodaMan79

[Helpmenow]

I can see the patriots moving down and taking a TE.

[Solomon Grundy]

To counter Montoya points

1) Antonio was to bring speed to the outside to keep safeties from playing in the box.

2) Metcalf size is comparable, but faster

3) Cole is gonna be Mr. chain mover

[Dr. Who]

So Tier, so bitter.

 

Personally, I don't pass on Ed Oliver if he is available at nine. If Devin White falls, I'd take him as well.

 

Inigo is a good poster and puts thought into his efforts, but if you go offense at nine, take a shot on Metcalf.

 

[Bangarang]

34 minutes ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

Top 10 pick on a TE is silly.

 

Not wanting a DL at 9 because he would be the 4th or 5th off the board is dumb. The DL class this year is ridiculous. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Bangarang

[WideNine]

 

We have covered this a lot, but why not it is the off-season and the swordmen are missing the playoffs ....again.

 

I don't get the Hock dissing. I can understand folks thinking he is a reach at 9, or he is not "your guy", but "bust" is a bit too much. He will be solid, and maybe even grow to be dominant at the position. Do I think he should go in the top 10,  is what it is. He will go where a team wants to take him and that will be his draft position worth.

 

Anyone that follows the Iowa program knows they can coach up the TE position better than many schools. That is why when the Bills are taking a look at the Ol' Miss prospect they are going to have to factor in more time to coach that kid up - if he has the aptitude.

 

Knox has very good measurables, but when you watch the tape often looks lost, the blocking needs a lot of work, and was an under-utilized feature of their offense. Same for many of the other prospects in this deep class where they may have high ceilings, but you do not see that reflected in their college production.

 

Fant to me is a flex option TE who has the athletism to create a lot of mismatches on the field, just don't expect any blocking from him. If he was willing to do that at Iowa he would not have lost reps to Hockenson. We have that (sort of) with Croom, I don't see them adding another, but who knows.

 

Not sure how good the Bills staff is at developing TEs, Rob Boras has a good looking resume...need to see it produce on the field.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by WideNine

[Peace Frog]

A tight end picked at the 9th spot?  Why, that's inconceivable!