billsbackto81 Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 Trade down for Hock or Fant, then trade back up for Jacobs. Problem solved! Yes I'm aware it takes 2, or in this case 4 to Tango. That's what's so much fun this time of year.
Rico Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 Field. Don’t want Fant before Day 2, don’t want a RB before day 3, don’t want Hock.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 I could be wrong, but I get the sense TE have one of the highest bust rates. I just hate the idea of using a first round pick on a guy that would be the worst blocker on the line and one of the worst WRs on the team. I mean, a good year for a tight end is 600+ yards. That is like a bad WR2, average WR3. Why use a first round pick for that production?
Rico Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: I could be wrong, but I get the sense TE have one of the highest bust rates. I just hate the idea of using a first round pick on a guy that would be the worst blocker on the line and one of the worst WRs on the team. I mean, a good year for a tight end is 600+ yards. That is like a bad WR2, average WR3. Why use a first round pick for that production? He could turn into a great whipping boy if he sucks.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 Just now, Rico said: He could turn into a great whipping boy if he sucks. With Peterman gone we have no one to hate. I mean, I guess there is Trent and Zay, but its just not the same.
racketmaster Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 With the depth and the history of the tight end position a team would be wiser to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to grab a tight end. The numbers show that more quality and elite tight ends are found in rounds 2 and 3 than they are in round 1. Especially with the depth this year there will be a few quality tight ends found in 2-3. We have a desperate need for a pass rusher and you can get that in round 1 and still get a tight end in round 3 if you want. Plus, we signed Croft who is an underrated tight end prospect and should be an upgrade for us.
Rico Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: With Peterman gone we have no one to hate. I mean, I guess there is Trent and Zay, but its just not the same. “Friggin’ T.J. Thanks, Beane.”
Thurman#1 Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Cripple Creek said: Based on the parameters presented I'm shocked it isn't 100% field. Yup. Any position vs. the field should be field. Including the ones that might get five or six guys drafted. Edited April 6, 2019 by Thurman#1
Rubes Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 Just thinking back to the last time we took a TE in the first round...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 6, 2019 Author Posted April 6, 2019 6 hours ago, Cripple Creek said: Based on the parameters presented I'm shocked it isn't 100% field. I'll explain why. Tight End is by far the weakest and thinnest position on our team right now. If you listened to McDermott speak at the owners meeting and were paying attention, you'd realize that despite the fact that the Buffalo Bills have never really valued the Tight End position, McDermott does. He established talked glowingly about Gronk, Greg Olsen, and some guy that was in Philadelphia I don't remember. He talked about the importance of a Tight End for a young QB. We have a young QB. We have 3 Tight Ends on our roster right now with less than 90 career NFL catches between them... and one of those guys is going to be brand new to the position. Hockenson has been pretty consistently ranked and mocked as high as 6 and no lower than in the 20s, so the theory that Beane will draft BPA could still put Hockenson (or Jacobs, who's also been in that same range) in a Bills uniform next year. Trading down is always an option, and I just said "1st pick" in the OP, not "at 9," which is part of the reason I put Fant there because I could see us trading back for our 1st pick and then trading back into the 1st round with all those picks we've acquired to get an edge rusher/DL in a very defense-heavy draft. Still shocked? 1 hour ago, Rubes said: Just thinking back to the last time we took a TE in the first round... Now think about the impact Tight Ends have had on the game over the last decade or so and the front row seat the Bills have had to witness, but not be a part of that impact.
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Remember it's just our 1st pick... could be trade down... could be trade UP... and I think some are really underestimating our need at RB and the increasing value of the RB over the last few years. I don't think people are under valuing the RB position. I think people particularly in NFL front offices are recognizing that you can easily find great RB's in the 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th round. To me RB is a throw away position. Of all the positions on a football field (excluding the punter and kicker) it appears to be easiest for a RB to come in as a rookie and excel on the field. On the other hand they seem to have a shorter shelf life and you may be best once their first or at most second contract is done, letting them go and go get another rookie to take his place. Could be a very interesting year for L Bell to watch how he does!
LSHMEAB Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Not quite sure how that squares when they just rated him as the third best tight end in THIS draft behind Fant and Wilson. I know the production is a major factor, but it's somewhat odd. I suppose the ranking that has him third is strictly combine based. Also curious as to which TE was rated number 1 in that 10 year span.
Rochesterfan Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: This draft just seems to be setting things up so that it's obvious we'll be picking a tight end in the first or, at the latest, second round. Maybe less talked about is our pretty obvious need at running back weather aging backfield, probably in need of wheelchairs. Teams carry 3 running backs. We have 2 capable RBs (but for how long?) and then a buncha JAGs. I get the BPA thing, but there are also different measures out there that have Jacobs, Hockenson and even Fant as top 10 talents in this draft. And for the "you don't take RBs in the top 10 or TEs in the 1st crowd", maybe Beane wants to trade back and get one of those guys, though I think they're still in play at 9. I don't really care what position we draft. I trust Beane. But we've pretty close to covered our OL in FA. No more desperate need. With the 2 Phillips monsters and Star our DL has at least 3 guys who Beane personally chose. Edge rusher is obviously a need, but I don't think it's a desperate one with Hughes and Lorax in there... and I think there's some faith in Lawson, too. We are devoid of clearly starting talent at TE. Maybe the guys we have can be successful, but it's certainly not clear they can be. That's why I really think we're drafting a TE in the 1st, through whatever means that happens. But our backfield, to me, is the elephant in the room that Beane really hasn't addressed, yet. We're clearly going to draft one. I just won't be shocked if it's in the 1st. I take the field and it’s not close - I think Dline will be the pick many times over before TE. I do not think most teams value RB enough to consider one at 9 right now - that would be a major mistake. Just look at the crap Gettleman is getting drafting the offensive rookie of the year last year - that was a transcendent talent that actually had a great season and most NFL pundits think it was a huge mistake - especially as there was an undrafted RB in the ProBowl.
Chandler#81 Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Rubes said: Just thinking back to the last time we took a TE in the first round... @ #12, Tony Hunter. He was OK, but not worthy of that high a pick. We had another 1st Rounder that year, @14. He didn’t do squat for the Bills his 1st 3 seasons.. 1 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: I take the field and it’s not close - I think Dline will be the pick many times over before TE. I do not think most teams value RB enough to consider one at 9 right now - that would be a major mistake. Just look at the crap Gettleman is getting drafting the offensive rookie of the year last year - that was a transcendent talent that actually had a great season and most NFL pundits think it was a huge mistake - especially as there was an undrafted RB in the ProBowl. ..great assessment RB....maybe I'm WAAAAY off, but McBeane gives me the impression as a master planner.....hell it wouldn't surprise me if he already has a preliminary 2020 landscape drawn up including potential draftees, scenarios where Bflo may pick as well as possible UFA's......agree with addressing DL but think he moves down to grab an extra 2nd.....bet his list has 1, 1-A, 1-B, 1-C, etc , all with fairly close grades as players are selected...OR...maybe the same for OL, but FA signings may indicate differently.....he could always move back into the late 1st with a pick package if he felt it was necessary....think this guy and his staff of 17+ know their stuff......light years ahead of the post Polian "F Troop" runnin' the clown show.....
transplantbillsfan Posted April 6, 2019 Author Posted April 6, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: I take the field and it’s not close - I think Dline will be the pick many times over before TE. I do not think most teams value RB enough to consider one at 9 right now - that would be a major mistake. Just look at the crap Gettleman is getting drafting the offensive rookie of the year last year - that was a transcendent talent that actually had a great season and most NFL pundits think it was a huge mistake - especially as there was an undrafted RB in the ProBowl. That's also largely because of the clear lack of talent on the OL and an over-the-hill QB. Part of the RB in the equation for me is that we just went OL heavy in FA and we (hopefully) have a QB. If the Giants had those things, the Barkley pick was practically a no-brainer and wouldn't be questioned. I don't think anyone has called drafting Zeke Elliott a mistake. Fournette has been questioned largely due to availability. Jacobs is more my dark horse, but a real possibility. Edited April 6, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
Rochesterfan Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: That's also largely because of the clear lack of talent on the OL and an over-the-hill QB. Part of the RB in the equation for me is that we just went OL heavy in FA and we (hopefully) have a QB. If the Giants had those things, the Barkley pick was practically a no-brainer and wouldn't be questioned. I don't think anyone has called drafting Zeke Elliott a mistake. Fournette has been questioned largely due to availability. Jacobs is more my dark horse, but a real possibility. I disagree - the biggest issue that I heard was by drafting a RB that high - his annual salary outpaces the rate of most other RBs and almost eliminates the 5th year option. You are overpaying right out of the gate if you draft a RB in the top 10. Barkley on his rookie contract is top 8 for RBs even after this off season and it will continue to rise. Whereas a position like DE/DL - Miles Garret is 36th ranked. QBs like Goff, Wentz, Mayfield - are all in the 20’s for positional pay. WR - rookie contracts are in the 40’s, tackles late 30’s, LBs are in the 40’s, and CBs are in the 40’s. Drafting a RB in the first round early - especially top 10 is a huge waste especially for the rookie contract. More and more teams are realizing you are wasting rookie deals with the RB and then the wear and tear is an additional problem because of the 5th year option and 2nd contracts. Teams are better off drafting a mid to late round RB every couple of years or picking up a FA as needed.
#34fan Posted April 6, 2019 Posted April 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: We had another 1st Rounder that year, @14. He didn’t do squat for the Bills his 1st 3 seasons.. Still wound up working out OK. 1
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