Draft Strategy: McBeane Absolutely Must Draft Around the Offense this Year

[TBBills Fan]

I disagree

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

42 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Yes. For those who are unaware of Taskers Ghost, he is one of the more consistently derisive posters on the Board. More importantly, his accuracy level is in the low teens %. Take him with a few grains of salt, or better yet, don’t.

 

...any news on his Wonderlic??.........

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

 

30th in Points Scored, ahead of only Jacksonville and Arizona;

30th in Yardage Offense ahead of only Miami and Arizona;

31^st in Yards-per-Play ahead of only Arizona;

30^th in Red Zone production;

30^th in Team Turnovers lost ahead of only Tampa and San Fran and which included a rate of turnovers by Allen of over 1/game; 

27^th in 1^st-down generation;

31^st in Net Yards-per-Attempt ahead of only Arizona;

25^th in Rushing Yards-per-Carry, Dead Last by a statistical country mile w/o Allen’s rushing contribution; 

29^th in Turnover %;

30^th in Offensive Drives Resulting in Offensive Scores;

31^st in Passing Yards ahead of only Arizona;

32^nd in Passing TDs;

31^st in Passing 1^st-Downs ahead of only Arizona.

 

These things all rest in the fact that the team was ranked perfectly average in Time-of-Possession and Plays run from Scrimmage, which bodes poorly.  In short, they had the ball for an average amount of time and for an average number of possessions, but as can be seen, produced all but bottom-dwelling results. 

 

McBeane are not in a position to be able to play-for-one-season only, they must build for the future.  The defense has a number of players that should be an integral part of the future, Edmunds, Milano, White, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, and Neal.  While secondary-heavy there is talent there. 

 

Where there is no talent despite a narrative that blares out “winning the offseason” again, the fact is that there is no known RB on the roster for the future.  There is no proven dominant WR on the team for the future.  There are hopefuls in Foster, Brown, Beasley, and for some in clinging to Jones, but hardly anything proven.  Of those four, Cinderella hopeful Foster is arguably the best prospect for attaining such a status.  He will be faced with tougher coverages this season however as such given that he may be considered the team’s #1 WR.  Either way he has much to prove.  Allen favored him upon his return from injury when Foster produced at a 16-game rate of 58 catches for 1,084 Yards and 8 TDs on a YPR of 18.5 and a Catch% of a solid 71.0%.  If he can produce that this coming season it would be quite good.  He was approximately a third of Allen's passing yardage and TDs in those last 8 games. 

 

McCoy did far less on average than he has in the past under Allen.  His biggest and only notable receiving game was with Anderson under center.  Croom played approximately the same all season despite who was under center.  Benjamin averaged 2.5 catches and 39 yards w/o Allen and 1.3 catches for 20 yards under Allen.  Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 YPG w/o Allen and 3 catches for 38 YPG w/ Allen.  Ivory averaged 2.3 catches for 18 yards w/o Allen and 1/2 a catch for 12 yards with Allen.  

 

Given that Foster and his 18.5 YPR were Allen's favorite target, there is no debate that Allen's preference is the deep ball and it fits the narrative as well.  

 

Otherwise, of the four primary WRs, in 15 combined seasons of play the best single-season receiving yardage totals are 1,003 by Brown and 833 by Beasley.  Next best 715 and otherwise no seasons over 700 yards. 

 

Of the same four the average per-player TD production per-season is 3.8.  By player it is Brown 4.4;    Beasley 3.3,     Foster 3,      Jones 4.5.   None of those rise to the status of average for starting WRs much less above-average.  62 players last season had 5 or more receiving TDs last season.  21 had more than 1,003 receiving yards, Brown's best season and 32 had more than 833 yards, Beasley's best season.  51 had over 700 receiving yards.  Perfectly average among the 64 (2/team) leading receivers was approximately 68 catches for 780 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

Among them in 216 games they have a mere combined 11 100-Yard games;  Brown (6 in 5 seasons), Foster (3 last season), Beasley (2 in 7 seasons), Jones (0 in 2 seasons). 

 

There is no TE for the future on the roster. 

 

The outlook on the Offensive Line depends upon whether one is of the rainbows, unicorns, & lollipops persuasion or whether one considers the realities that the OL-men signed are very much of the on-or-about average variety and frankly, not significantly better than what was in inventory.  The one that figures to make the greatest impact, yet not without significant risks, is Morse at C. 

 

Morse is known for his pass-blocking but equally known for not being a good run-blocker, so there’s that.  Otherwise the biggest risk associated with him is that he’s played in just over half of his games the past two seasons due to injury.  The Bills could not afford to lose him during the season.  In another point-of-note, offensive linemen free agents that have gone on from KC have a reputation for underachievement subsequent to that. 

 

Otherwise, Feliciano has largely been a backup on a bad Oakland team; 

 

With 16 starts in 5 seasons Nsecke has largely been a depth player also on a poor offensive team;

 

Waddle was a depth OL-man for the Patriots; 

 

Long, the only lineman signed with significant experience gets a “below-average” rating from Pro Football Focus, which I’ll defer to since no doubt unlike other forum members I haven’t spent much time watching Long play in Washington, a poor offensive team, in order to confirm his future greatness in Buffalo. 

 

Apparently Ryan Groy is apparently no longer for the team, a lineman that received comparable fanfare as the above mentioned upon his arrival in Buffalo. 

 

Since it does not appear to be obvious what their plan is other than having put all of their eggs in Allen’s basket, and for whatever their plan is notwithstanding, their top priority should be seeing to it to ensure that Allen’s play rises to at least an average level as NFL starters go this forthcoming season.  If they cannot do that then the cries of “project” (at best) will appropriately arise, thereby not doing them any favors going forward.  No fan wants to see that.  

 

In addressing that the questions at hand are to what extent the offensive problems were related to Allen and to what extent were they related to the rest of the offense, ranging from talent on offense otherwise, play-calling, etc.  It is beyond clear however that the play of the offense can essentially only improve. 

 

The rainbows, unicorns, and lollipop contingent will insist that few if any of the offensive problems are on Allen and that Allen with even average talent, which is the best that he’ll have this season if all goes as planned at this point in time, he will arise to the aforementioned status and even more, presumably to franchise status. 

 

Others realize that a good chunk of the offense’s woes are in fact attributable to Allen.  There is no need to belabor that although that’s what will happen in this thread.  It is one or the other, there is no debate.  It should be obvious to a blind man that the biggest gains in terms of rendering this team competitive at the ultimate levels will come from improving the offense, not the defense at this point in time. 

 

But again, if McBeane fail to make those strides on offense and starting with Allen, which is where it will have to begin, and for whatever the reasons actually are and being irrelevant for purposes of their status, then they will not be long for this team.  If that happens then the team enters the lease-extensions years in a state that would only lead to despair.   Allen is arguably the team's biggest draftee since Kelly.  

 

Having said that, the priority must be getting Allen up to the status of above-average immediately, and thereafter to franchise status.  That will not happen if the team expends day 1 & 2 draft resources on defense. 

 

Without getting into details, it can strongly be suggested that a good chunk of the offense’s problems fall back onto Allen’s passing game, more specifically the mental part of the game, which is tremendously difficult to coach up.  This was tried for one simple issue in Bledsoe, namely his getting rid of the ball quickly, using timers, buzzers, etc., and yet it failed miserably, and Bledsoe was a very seasoned and experienced QB by then with a much more impressive collegiate resume and comparably strong-arm.  

 

It stands to reason that the team, McBeane, would go out of their way to protect Allen to every extent possible even if it were possible to install “over-protection” in order to give Allen all the time that he can possibly get in order to process information, aka read the D both pre and post snap. 

 

Adding deep-threat WRs is not going to help the problem, it merely feeds it.  Allen looks deep primarily.  His issues lie within the short-medium game.  This explains Allen’s 8^th ranking in Yards-per-Completion contrasted with his 32^nd (of 33) ranking in Adj. Yards-per-Attempt, Net Yards-per-Attempt, and Adj Net Yards-per-Attempt.  It is the only explanation.  It also explains perhaps in a cart/horse manner his low completion percentage or visa versa. 

 

While perhaps room for improvement, Allen’s deep game is hardly the thing that needs the greatest improvement.  Everyone knows that he can heave the ball from OBD to Cleveland.  The fact that Foster excelled under Allen with an 18.5 YPR avg. with the other receivers underperforming not only their career/season averages but also putting up better numbers without Allen is evidence of that.  The greatest improvement needs to come from finding the open man regardless of where he is on the field.  Allen is young, but the problem for him is that he has never had to resort to good reading of defenses in order to excel.  His physical prowess has allowed him to be a men among boys in high school football and to a certain extent in a non-Power-5 conference in college.  Case in point, he could not even come close to doing so in the three collegiate games he had against Power-5 competition, to the extent that in those games he played worse than undrafted QBs did against Power-5 competition.  He had the worst record of performance against Power-5 competition of any draft eligible QB in 2018 with 1 TD, 8 INTs and several more lost fumbles in those three games averaging 142 passing yards and posting a pathetic 23 rushes for 22 yards rushing in those three games, evidence of precisely that.  That’s saying something, something which should not be ignored if progress is to be made.  He took the league by surprise last season, he will not have that element of surprise this season.  

 

Athleticism, scrambling, rushing, and heaving deep have not been enormous issues for him, although one could argue that they were for the team overall given that what have been issues for him have been efficient and consistent passing from the pocket, where he has never excelled.  The problem therein is that this is a team sport, not a one-man wrecking crew sport.  Efficiency, competence, and particularly consistency involve using all aspects and elements of an offense.  This was not done by Allen last season which is where the work lies.  

 

How to correct this?  How to correct it indeed.  The things that will not correct it insofar as the Draft is concerned are drafting defense, obviously, or drafting deep WRs since those will not address correction of the problem.  Besides, if John Brown is all that, despite having caught only three TD passes in his career of 5 seasons of longer than 33 yards, which is the existing narrative, then Allen has all the deep threat he needs between Foster and Brown. 

 

Allen will need time.  Time to correct and improve his defense reading skills and ability to find the open receivers wherever they may be on the field.  The only thing that is going to help that is protection.  For the rainbows, unicorns, and lollipop contingent that problem has been solved.  For everyone else rooted in reality much work can still be done and must be done if Allen is to take those critical steps.  He already faces an uphill battle in terms of correcting those as few if any QBs having come into the league without the ability to effectively read a defense have gone on to amount to much, much less to franchise status. 

 

If McBeane do not draft to that strategy then they are toying with and risking their own careers and therefore the health and welfare of the team.  Regardless of what this team does this and next season, if Allen pans then McBeane cannot be long for the team given the resources they gave up for, remember, “their guy.”  This is a marriage, he is “their guy,” they have insisted it be so.  As such they will ultimately be graded upon whether or not “their guy” works out.  Drafting to not do their best to ensure that this happens is foolish. 

 

Here’s to hoping that it works out, but make no mistake, it is hardly a shoe-in and they can ill afford to diminish the chances of Allen working out by drafting defense in round 1.  If they do not want to be looking for work after the 2020 season  then they absolutely have to focus on correcting Allen’s mentals of the game.  This cannot wait. 

 

That will not be done by feeding the problem by giving him even more deep-options.  That merely enables him to continue to play in a manner that will never foster franchise status.  It will be done by forcing him to look short first except on plays specifically designed to go deep, what are called “high percentage plays” for a reason, which often involve recognizing a flaw in coverage on pre-snap reads coupled with that development in post-snap reads.  It is Allen's inability or unwillingness, as we will soon find out which, to utilize those "high-percentage passes" that are contributing to his low completion percentage.  Unwillingness would be more easily correctable despite the fact that old habits are hard to break.  The more that Allen scrambles, runs, or looks deep first without concern for what else is open, is the more that this will not happen.  If it doesn’t happen, there will be no significant progress.  If there's no significant progress then the team will be without the franchise QB that they so desperately need.  

 

Most QBs drafted in round 1 do not come into the league with this handicap.  The few that do have not succeeded.  McD and the team will simply have to work harder at QB than most other teams if the requisite improvements are to be made.  Can they be made?  Sure, of course.  Will they be made?  Depends upon the methodology employed and the success that they can achieve therein.  The only certain thing is that if they do not directly attempt to correct terminal errors in Allen’s play,

@TaskersGhostany chance I could get the Spark Notes edition. Im not going to read the book

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...any news on his Wonderlic??.........

 

I hope you understand my post in the other thread now

[WhoTom]

1 hour ago, rayray808 said:

someone post cliff notes please

 

Last year's defensive stats were good-to-average.

Last year's offensive stats were ... offensive, to say the least.

 

Conclusion: Draft offense.

 

 

[WhoTom]

58 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Yes. For those who are unaware of Taskers Ghost, he is one of the more consistently derisive posters on the Board. More importantly, his accuracy level is in the low teens %. Take him with a few grains of salt, or better yet, don’t.

 

TBD should draft some weapons so he can improve his accuracy. ?

 

 

[hemma]

I can't imagine anyone taking the time to type all of this crap.

Might be 200 previously written random posts separated by carriage returns.

[racketmaster]

Bills already focused on the offensive side of the ball with free agency. At this point I'd be absolutely shocked if the first pick were not on a defensive player (specifically a defensive lineman). There is a significant need for defensive line help, especially pass rushers. After round 1 all bets are off and I think they go best available player. That may be a wr that falls or it could be another defensive lineman. In the middle rounds we could draft a tight end (very deep class) and a rb.

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

2 hours ago, rayray808 said:

someone post cliff notes please

 

I saw unicorns and lollipops somewhere in the read...

[bmur66]

I read the entire post and think it all makes sense. Giving Allen time to throw and good coaching is priority one. I fully expect them to draft an OT at 9. Most of last years O line are bums and need to be upgraded. They have thrown a lot of darts and have to hit on some of them. They must put a good NFL offense on the field this year or things will go downhill fast. Get Duke Johnson and draft a good TE.

[stinky finger]

2 hours ago, Haplo848 said:

Yeah, I disagree with this post wholeheartedly.  I actually read most of it.  I'm kinda disappointed I did. 

The main jist of the argument is that we should NOT draft BPA, because that would land us superstar talent, but not at the positions HE thinks are most important, and should instead draft inferior talent for need, perpetuating the problems that have plagued this franchise for decades, instead of drafting superstars that will be with us for a decade or more.  

Here's what he did wrong:

 

He took the entire season as a whole, without looking at the progress made.  He ignored that Allen got better as the season went on, as he got more experience and the game started to slow down for him.  He ignored that QBs generally make a jump from year one to year two just because they have had more time to experience the NFL game and adjust to its speed and complexity.  Despite teams realizing that Foster was our #1 WR by the end of the season, and rolling coverage his way, practically ignoring other receiving options, he somehow thinks that adding more talented WRs to the roster means that Foster will receive MORE attention, rather than less.  He ignores that as the season went on, Allen got better at the underneath game, essentially showcasing how much better he had gotten in that aspect of his game in Week 17, with announcers noting that Daboll might have done so specifically to give coordinators next year more stuff to worry about and added wrinkles to consider when preparing for facing the Bills.  He ignores the fact that Allen has played QB at a competitive level for a relatively short time, even shorter than other prospects, that he's been shown to be a quick study and also a hard worker at getting rid of negative aspects of his game, while also comparing him to an old, set-in-his-ways Bledsoe to try to assert that QBs can't be taught anything.  

 

And that's just Allen.  He ignores that Beasely is a much better short range target than anyone we had on our roster last year.  He ignores that though Nsekhe was a back-up swing tackle, when he did play, there was literally no drop off, despite replacing a pro bowl LT at times.  He says that Feliciano was a back-up on a bad Raiders team, ignoring that the two G in front of him were pro bowlers.  

 

The stats were interesting.  The assumptions and assertions made were bad, and so any claims made are bound to be false and spurious.  

 

Nope - a bit shorter, but not reading this one either.

[mcdamit]

i may be in the minority but i think the defense needs a couple of more above average players to stay in the top 5.  Kyle may have lost a little but still was on the field for 65 percent of the snaps.  They have not addressed this .   I bet they take defense 2 of the first three picks.   

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Feeling better now, @TaskersGhost?

[Troll Toll]

I do think they should focus on drafting offense, other than that I basically disagree. Focus on big intermediate/deep threat receivers. Getting those players will maximize Allen’s potential. Turning Allen into a dink and dunk passer would be an abomination. There were tons of great deep throws he made last year that fell incomplete due to our receivers’ inability to track the ball, lack of that “extra gear” to accelerate to the ball and lack of ability to complete catches on passes that hit both hands.

[billsredneck1]

3 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Absolutely Must?? As in, you’ll fire him if he doesn’t? Oh, the horror!

 

No, I didn’t bother to read your epic. I just got a new eyeglass prescription and have no desire to speed up the next one. Take it back to the typewriter, proofread it and subtract 2/3rds if you want anybody to bother reading it.

....and change your username to jerrysullivan'sghost

33 minutes ago, mcdamit said:

i may be in the minority but i think the defense needs a couple of more above average players to stay in the top 5.  Kyle may have lost a little but still was on the field for 65 percent of the snaps.  They have not addressed this .   I bet they take defense 2 of the first three picks.   

heard shaq on one bills live saying he has worked on strength and is much stronger than this time last year. if they think they can move him inside on passing downs, maybe they think they can go edge high and dt a little later. 22 more days.........

[billsredneck1]

43 minutes ago, mcdamit said:

i may be in the minority but i think the defense needs a couple of more above average players to stay in the top 5.  Kyle may have lost a little but still was on the field for 65 percent of the snaps.  They have not addressed this .   I bet they take defense 2 of the first three picks.   

ok, i gotta chuckle out of your username.

[SouthNYfan]

Taskersghost making a long-winded post (coming from me that's saying something...) which can be summarized into the following sentence:

 

"I, taskersghost, hate Josh Allen at QB, and will continue to do so, even if he wins an MVP, goes to the Superbowl, walks on water, and turns water into premium craft beer with the snap of his fingers. I also am Josh Rosen's mom."

 

This summary can be applied to all his posts.

44 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Feeling better now, @TaskersGhost?

 

He never will.

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, aristocrat said:

I read war and peace and it was shorter

Can someone contact AG Barr for a 4 sentence letter?

[Boca BIlls]

I heard there would be punch and pie?

Edited April 3, 2019 by Boca BIlls

[GETTOTHE50]

anybody else see the similarities between this and the puppy who lost his way argument?