Is Buffalo's Philosophy: FA is for Contributors & Draft is for Difference-Makers?

[Thurman#1]

 

 

I don't think they're using ceiling and floors as crucial measures. People overthink this, IMO. It's just BPA, with some position value and needs involved. And they try to limit how much position matters by doing a good job filling obvious holes in FA. They did a good job of that in FA this year. 

 

Just BPA, but not at QB or safety or centers without position flexibility  early or, I would argue, MLB, though some disagree with me there. And if they can get a pass-rushing DE or DT or further shore up OT or TE earlyish by picking the BPA, all the better, and that may mean moving around a bit.

 

I agree with the OP that Oliver looks like if he's still available he could be BPA at a position of need, and thus could easily be the pick at #9. 

 

I'd also bet they try to get some of the guys they liked at the Senior Bowl, as Beane did last year, guys like Risner, Bradbury if they think he can play guard, Deebo Samuel, and probably a few others we're not so aware of. Dillard, maybe. McLaurin?

Edited April 3, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

Team culture is the difference maker.

All of our good, established, players were free agents or we traded for them.

 

 

Kyle Williams. Eric Wood if he'd stayed healthy. Milano. Draftees who were among our good, established players.

 

Is Tre established? If not, he will be soon. Same with Edmunds, IMO.

 

I agree that team culture is crucial to this FO and generally. But if you use "established" as guys who've been around a while, of course you're not going to have many when your team has so often switched coaches and schemes and then on top of that you rebuilt two years ago.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Steve Billieve]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Kyle Williams. Eric Wood if he'd stayed healthy. Milano. Draftees who were among our good, established players.

 

Is Tre established? If not, he will be soon. Same with Edmunds, IMO.

 

I agree that team culture is crucial to this FO and generally. But if you use "established" as guys who've been around a while, of course you're not going to have many when your team has so often switched coaches and schemes and then on top of that you rebuilt two years ago.

 

Kyle and Eric aren't on our team. Your not going to convince me that Edmunds or Milano are established difference makers, and I'm having trouble believing that you think this is actually the situation at this time.  While I agree Tre is one of our best players, at best he takes away a favored target on account of the position he plays.

 

If I had to name the three most impactful players that are still on our team over the past two or three years I'd probably go with Shady, Hughes, and Lorenzo all of whom were traded for or signed as free agents.  Even the next set of players that come to mind are Poyer and Hyde, both signed as free agents.

 

To me it seems like management is reluctant to invest a lot in what any player may do in the future, especially when they haven't worked with that player before.  The only exception I see to this is maybe all the trading that went into getting Allen.  I don't think that has anything to do with them looking for "star" players in any particular way.  They just don't want to be screwed if it doesn't work out.  I'm sure they were hoping Benjamin would be a difference maker, but the fact that he wasn't hasn't set them back.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Steve Billieve said:

 

Kyle and Eric aren't on our team. Your not going to convince me that Edmunds or Milano are established difference makers, and I'm having trouble believing that you think this is actually the situation at this time.  While I agree Tre is one of our best players, at best he takes away a favored target on account of the position he plays.

 

If I had to name the three most impactful players that are still on our team over the past two or three years I'd probably go with Shady, Hughes, and Lorenzo all of whom were traded for or signed as free agents.  Even the next set of players that come to mind are Poyer and Hyde, both signed as free agents.

 

To me it seems like management is reluctant to invest a lot in what any player may do in the future, especially when they haven't worked with that player before.  The only exception I see to this is maybe all the trading that went into getting Allen.  I don't think that has anything to do with them looking for "star" players in any particular way.  They just don't want to be screwed if it doesn't work out.  I'm sure they were hoping Benjamin would be a difference maker, but the fact that he wasn't hasn't set them back.

 

 

Yeah, I'm aware they aren't on our team. But you're the one who said "All of our good, established, players were free agents or we traded for them." That sentence is in the past tense, so it sure looks like you were talking about last year. And Wood absolutely would've been here if he hadn't had the career-ending injury. They gave him an extension just before.

 

"Shady, Hughes and Lorenzo" you say, again talking about "the past two or three years," were more impactful than Kyle Williams, Tre, Matt Milano? First, nobody is talking about three years ago. That was pre-McDermott and has nothing to do with what is happening now. And second, not so much. While Shady might've been up there in 2017, last year he wasn't in our top fifteen. There's an argument with Hughes, but as good as Lorenzo was, he wasn't better than Tre or Kyle.

 

And again, they do have a lot of young draftees who look very good. But they're young. For an FO that's only had two drafts, they have a lot of young promising guys from those drafts. The odds look very good that in a year or two we'll have a lot of established young guys from those drafts. Tre, Dawkins (had a down year, apologized for a sophomore slump where he says he wasn't serious enough, and he still was pretty good), Milano, and last year Teller, Taron Johnson, Harrison Phillips, Edmunds and Allen all have a solid shot at establishing themselves, though they have a lot to prove. But that's because they're young.

 

And that's what happens when you constantly switch schemes as the Bills have done over and over through recent years and then on top of that increase the problem of keeping few draftees by rebuilding. You're gonna have few guys from previous regimes in a situation like that, especially if you're looking at the end of the second season or at the third season. It's the way things go when you rebuild, and especially so when you do a significant scheme switch like the on from a Ryan defense to a McDermott version.

 

I didn't address whether they are looking for stars, but if you wanna talk about it in a reply to my post, OK, I guess. I think they're going BPA. I think they hope they get a guy who wins his one-on-ones consistently in the first and hopefully in the second. They have made it very clear that their core will be built through the draft. But a guy like Morse could hopefully turn out to be on Wood's level, maybe even a bit above

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

 

He signed who he wanted to sign last year with absolutely nothing to do with cap space.... they had around $50 mill entering FA last offseason.  most of his FA signings trash. Hopefully this years turn out a lot better. 

 

 

That's just not so, Scott.

 

They were in a crappy situation with the cap and that had a huge impact on their personnel decisions.

 

The Bills went into last year's offseason in the later twenties in cap space rankings, with somewhere around $28 mill. To be precise, $29.3 million on February 12th.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/02/12/salary-cap-bills-have-more-space-but-too-much-dead-money/

 

But at that point, Wood had already retired, but his dead money hadn't yet officially hit the cap, because his resignation was not official. His $10 mill bonus money was finally at the end of May all put against the 2018 salary cap, which lost the Bills about $5.5 mill, as his salary had only been $4.8 mill. So in February, the Bills knew they effectively had about $23 mill. Which would have put them in the lower quarter of the rankings.

 

Yeah, they cut a few guys and got it up into the thirties but those cuts - Tyrod and a few others - left holes and were motivated partly if not largely by the need to make some money available. And that was before they re-signed Kyle for 2018.

 

Already in bad shape, they knew they had to make it worse by absorbing so much extra cap space into the 2018 salary cap figure to clear the space that they are now finally enjoying in the 2019 season.

 

And on March 14th, after dumping Tyrod, going into the FA period, they had about $37 million. Not $50. And again, the $5.5 mill they knew Wood would cost hadn't yet hit the official cap figures. So practically it was $31.5 mill.

 

https://apnews.com/b46c18d8192d4ef8a14d916488e317fc

 

More, this was after the Cordy Glenn trade to free up cap space and bring in draft capital. And yet going into FA they were still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay below their final dead money total. On March 13th, after the Glenn trade, they had only $36 mill in dead cap. As they ended up at around $70 mill, things clearly got a lot worse.

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/5_thoughts_and_a_grade_for_buffalo_bills_trading_cordy_glenn.html

 

Their lack of cap space was a huge factor on signings last year, especially with their intention, announced to the Pegulas, of cleaning up the cap situation by this year, which they did an excellent job of. Huge.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Thurman#1

[billsfan1959]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

That's just not so, Scott.

This should be incorporated into one of the optional emoji responses - just to keep from having to type it so often.

[Rochesterfan]

13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

More like what most good teams do.

 

UFA is to fill IMMEDIATE holes, which opens up Best Football Player available come Draft time.

 

 

I believe this is the approach they are taking and Beane has mentioned it before.

 

Use FA to fill immediate holes with short term people to see how they fit and Draft BPA to build competition and long term roster stability.

 

The next part is to identify who on your roster is a long term fit and start to retain more and more; all while identifying those that you can let go or trade to help the build cycle.

 

The other avenue that becomes available is the trade market and that seems to be where Beane is looking at acquiring potential talent for more limited costs.  I think he was in on AB because there was potential for real talent at minimal cost.  I also believe that he was not really interested in OBJ because although the talent is there the cost was more significant and therefore you are more likely “stuck” longer term - even if he does not work out.

 

Beane is the first GM in a while that I believe has a holistic approach to roster building with a longer term vision on the team.  He will acquire talent in many ways and is not afraid to step back and admit a mistake and cut a sunk cost guy that is not working out.  Whaley I think had that ability, but he was always forced to acquire talent for different coaches and different schemes - and he way overpaid for talent.  We will see how Beane does as his rookies begin to need new contracts.

[BarleyNY]

Difference makers are rarely available in free agency - and they’re usually extremely expensive when they do.  That’s why most are acquired via the draft.  Trading for them can be a good avenue as well.

 

So, yeah, the Bills will probably try to draft most of their difference makers.  If they think they can score one in a trade - Antonio Brown for example - then they’ll probably try to do that.  If a team can be built that way then it might make sense to overpay a difference maker in free agency, but no way do you try to build a team that way. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's just not so, Scott.

 

They were in a crappy situation with the cap and that had a huge impact on their personnel decisions.

 

The Bills went into last year's offseason in the later twenties in cap space rankings, with somewhere around $28 mill. To be precise, $29.3 million on February 12th.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/02/12/salary-cap-bills-have-more-space-but-too-much-dead-money/

 

But at that point, Wood had already retired, but his dead money hadn't yet officially hit the cap, because his resignation was not official. His $10 mill bonus money was finally at the end of May all put against the 2018 salary cap, which lost the Bills about $5.5 mill, as his salary had only been $4.8 mill. So in February, the Bills knew they effectively had about $23 mill. Which would have put them in the lower quarter of the rankings.

 

Yeah, they cut a few guys and got it up into the thirties but those cuts - Tyrod and a few others - left holes and were motivated partly if not largely by the need to make some money available. And that was before they re-signed Kyle for 2018.

 

Already in bad shape, they knew they had to make it worse by absorbing so much extra cap space into the 2018 salary cap figure to clear the space that they are now finally enjoying in the 2019 season.

 

And on March 14th, after dumping Tyrod, going into the FA period, they had about $37 million. Not $50. And again, the $5.5 mill they knew Wood would cost hadn't yet hit the official cap figures. So practically it was $31.5 mill.

 

https://apnews.com/b46c18d8192d4ef8a14d916488e317fc

 

More, this was after the Cordy Glenn trade to free up cap space and bring in draft capital. And yet going into FA they were still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay below their final dead money total. On March 13th, after the Glenn trade, they had only $36 mill in dead cap. As they ended up at around $70 mill, things clearly got a lot worse.

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/5_thoughts_and_a_grade_for_buffalo_bills_trading_cordy_glenn.html

 

Their lack of cap space was a huge factor on signings last year, especially with their intention, announced to the Pegulas, of cleaning up the cap situation by this year, which they did an excellent job of. Huge.

 

 

 

 

 

The star signing is atrocious 

[formerlyofCtown]

15 hours ago, Haplo848 said:

 

Doesn't this statement just contradict everything you said previously?  Because Ed Oliver's upside is Aaron Donald level production.  That doesn't mean he will actually deliver Aaron Donald level production, but that is where his upside is.  Ed Oliver is NOT a "safe/high floor/ ground-rule double" prospect.  He's an undersized DT who shows remarkable penetration, but was used horribly in college as a 2 gap DT instead of a 1 gap penetrating type DT, and so was not used to his best ability most of the time.  His upside is that he is used correctly in the NFL, penetrates Olines on a regular basis, and becomes just as disruptive as Aaron Donald.  His floor is that he's out of the league in two years after he gets pushed around by superior competition because he's undersized.  

 

I was with you 100% until that last line.  But yes, the draft is where you obtain (and perhaps more importantly, RETAIN) your stars.  FA is used to fill in around them.  Which is why it's never made sense to me that FA comes BEFORE the draft...

Rex would have been drueling over the possibility of dropping Oliver into coverage.

[formerlyofCtown]

17 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

The star signing is atrocious 

Another one that thinks Aaron Donald makes 10 mil a year huh.?

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

Team culture is the difference maker.

All of our good, established, players were free agents or we traded for them.

 

"Team culture" is almost always an excuse to mask an organization/HC's inability to identify/acquire/retain an effective blend of talent on the field/sidelines to win games with regularity.  The only NFL team that seems to really have a "team culture" is the Patriots but even their success seems to be dependent upon Brady's ability to adapt to continual changes in his offensive personnel and Belichick's genius in creating defenses that maximize the effectiveness of whatever defensive talent he has.  All the other teams that have been regular playoff teams over the last 20 years have been much more successful when they've fielded teams filled with talent and much less successful when their talent has been limited.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Philadelphia, KC, New Orleans, and Seattle are all examples of this.  Just having a franchise QB isn't enough as San Diego and Detroit have repeatedly demonstrated.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

16 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Another one that thinks Aaron Donald makes 10 mil a year huh.?

 

What?

[Toesy]

Re talent, NE has always had the QB, OL, DL and TE. If you win the battle at the line of scrimmage and you have a top QB you are going to be fine-NE has shown you can win with top WR talent or without it.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

30 million* 

 

Doesn't excuse how they spent it.... which was terribly.

 

Davis, the often injured Murphy, the wasted trade for Coleman, Bodine, Neuhaus, even an overpaid Star who was an average to below average lineman.

 

They aren't excused for how they used the resources they had just because it wasn't $80 million like this year. 

 

Kerley as well (though I don't think he was expensive). Ivory who some fans he liked more than he was due because he didn't dance before gaining his customary 3 yards.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

The star signing is atrocious 

 

2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Another one that thinks Aaron Donald makes 10 mil a year huh.?

 

The Star signing was terrible.  He’s useless on passing downs so you’re looking at run defender who eats up double teams. Yip. If you think that’s a $10M per year job, then you’re pretty out of touch with the value of players yourself.  And we haven’t even gotten into how front loaded the deal is.  We’d be on the hook for $26M if we cut him after 2 seasons and $33.5M if we cut him after 3. We have to keep him for all 5 seasons to get the $10M per season rate. How is that a defensible contract?

Edited April 3, 2019 by BarleyNY

[buffaloboyinATL]

17 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

More like what most good teams do.

 

UFA is to fill IMMEDIATE holes, which opens up Best Football Player available come Draft time.

My thought exactly. This allows him to draft the best players available, regardless of position, rather than having to fill glaring holes in the line up.

[Rufridr101]

17 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

VERY sorry & I've edited.  I really like Oliver, as the first part of the sentence shows, & I've amended the last part.  I meant to type this:

 

"To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not OFF the board at 9."

Oliver doesn't have the arm length the bills covet.  The bills will not spend first round capital on a player who doesn't check all the boxes.  Quinnen Williams arms are a full 2 inches longer and is taller.  I'm expecting more moves before the draft.  Player trades coming. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

They made Morse the highest paid center in the league. I hope he is top tier talent.

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's just not so, Scott.

 

They were in a crappy situation with the cap and that had a huge impact on their personnel decisions.

 

The Bills went into last year's offseason in the later twenties in cap space rankings, with somewhere around $28 mill. To be precise, $29.3 million on February 12th.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/02/12/salary-cap-bills-have-more-space-but-too-much-dead-money/

 

But at that point, Wood had already retired, but his dead money hadn't yet officially hit the cap, because his resignation was not official. His $10 mill bonus money was finally at the end of May all put against the 2018 salary cap, which lost the Bills about $5.5 mill, as his salary had only been $4.8 mill. So in February, the Bills knew they effectively had about $23 mill. Which would have put them in the lower quarter of the rankings.

 

Yeah, they cut a few guys and got it up into the thirties but those cuts - Tyrod and a few others - left holes and were motivated partly if not largely by the need to make some money available. And that was before they re-signed Kyle for 2018.

 

Already in bad shape, they knew they had to make it worse by absorbing so much extra cap space into the 2018 salary cap figure to clear the space that they are now finally enjoying in the 2019 season.

 

And on March 14th, after dumping Tyrod, going into the FA period, they had about $37 million. Not $50. And again, the $5.5 mill they knew Wood would cost hadn't yet hit the official cap figures. So practically it was $31.5 mill.

 

https://apnews.com/b46c18d8192d4ef8a14d916488e317fc

 

More, this was after the Cordy Glenn trade to free up cap space and bring in draft capital. And yet going into FA they were still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay below their final dead money total. On March 13th, after the Glenn trade, they had only $36 mill in dead cap. As they ended up at around $70 mill, things clearly got a lot worse.

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/03/5_thoughts_and_a_grade_for_buffalo_bills_trading_cordy_glenn.html

 

Their lack of cap space was a huge factor on signings last year, especially with their intention, announced to the Pegulas, of cleaning up the cap situation by this year, which they did an excellent job of. Huge.

 

 

 

 

Everything you wrote is accurate. But it does not explain paying Murphy and Ivory or even Star as much as Beane did. Star was adequate the rest of the signings were awful.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

8 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

My thought exactly. This allows him to draft the best players available, regardless of position, rather than having to fill glaring holes in the line up.

Agree as long as the BPA is a DT, OLB, or TE.