Is Buffalo's Philosophy: FA is for Contributors & Draft is for Difference-Makers?

[Midwest1981]

First of all, FA is rarely replete with stars; very rarely are you able to add a Drew Brees (2006), Julius Peppers (2010), or even a Mario Williams (2012).  So anyone expecting that the Bills would've been able to load up on top-tier talent in FA were deluding themselves.  That said, we didn't- we added 8-9 guys who will serve a role and contribute, some more than others, and should collectively improve this team bur arguably don't move the needle in a seismic way.  Because they're contributors- they're not needle-movers.  Which is fine.  Which is FA.  Other than the Jets, no other team added more than one player in FA who are in the top-10 at their respective positions.  But doesn't that compel the Bills to desire difference-making, special talent in the draft?  Isn't that what we're still clearly missing?

 

I know that's obvious- every team's looking for special talent in the draft.  But what I'm saying is, arguably having started last year with high ceiling/low to medium floors type of prospects in Allen & Edmunds, doesn't Buffalo need more unique talent to take a MAJOR step, if not this year but soon?

 

If you compare rosters league-wide, while I disagree with it and know the Bills' roster is decidedly under-valued, the Vegas perception that the Bills are about a 6-win team is in part because there isn't a lot of high-end talent on this roster.  High-end talent- shoot, even abundant talent itself- doesn't guarantee winning (see the Steelers).  But excluding teams led by HOF-caliber QB's (like Brady), most teams have more- need more- high-end talent than we still possess to play well.  Quality coaching helps, which we have, but isn't enough.

 

If I had any influence over this draft, I would place upside at a premium, especially after this FA haul.  The realistic ability to reach that upside, too, but believing what still separates the Bills from most teams being difference-making & high-end talent... I would eschew "safe/high floor/ground-rule double" prospects for prospects potentially riskier but with higher ceilings.

 

To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not off the board at 9.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Midwest1981

[Forward Progress]

I would say that Beane is all about building the best 53-man roster than he can without ruining our salary cap position for any year in the future.  He values all eleven players on the field and wants quality depth to drive a competitive environment to get the best out of every player.

 

Whaley's strategy was to have a few elite superstars on the roster (Mario Williams, Watkins, McCoy) with the remaining spots filled with whatever money was left.

 

I believe that Beane's approach to building a full roster will win out in the end, as rosters with holes get exploited.  The defense is as good as the weakest player, who will be exploited by the opponents offensive game plan.  Offences that can't run, get receivers in double-coverage.  Offences that can't pass, face eight men in the box.  

 

This offseason has been about shoring up the weakest parts of our roster, where we had back-up caliber players in starting positions.  We didn't add superstars to our roster, but we have replaced back-ups with starters and it will show on the field.

 

In the draft, Beane will stick to his word and take the best player available early in the draft and then draft more for need later in the draft when the spread from player to player is less.

 

I am going into this draft, felling relaxed and trusting the process.  If I'm surprised by the first pick, I will assume the pick is good and that the media doesn't know as much as our scouts.  

[chris heff]

I think that is how it seems to be playing out this year, remember this is the first year that Beane and McDermott are not in salary cap hell. I believe the philosophy is if an opportunity to get better arises, they are going to pursue it. Remember, they took a pretty good run at Antonio Brown.

[Haplo848]

43 minutes ago, Midwest1981 said:

First of all, FA is rarely replete with stars; very rarely are you able to add a Drew Brees (2006), Julius Peppers (2010), or even a Mario Williams (2012).  So anyone expecting that the Bills would've been able to load up on top-tier talent in FA were deluding themselves.  That said, we didn't- we added 8-9 guys who will serve a role and contribute, some more than others, and should collectively improve this team bur arguably don't move the needle in a seismic way.  Because they're contributors- they're not needle-movers.  Which is fine.  Which is FA.  Other than the Jets, no other team added more than one player in FA who are in the top-10 at their respective positions.  But doesn't that compel the Bills to desire difference-making, special talent in the draft?  Isn't that what we're still clearly missing?

 

I know that's obvious- every team's looking for special talent in the draft.  But what I'm saying is, arguably having started last year with high ceiling/low to medium floors type of prospects in Allen & Edmunds, doesn't Buffalo need more unique talent to take a MAJOR step, if not this year but soon?

 

If you compare rosters league-wide, while I disagree with it and know the Bills' roster is decidedly under-valued, the Vegas perception that the Bills are about a 6-win team is in part because there isn't a lot of high-end talent on this roster.  High-end talent- shoot, even abundant talent itself- doesn't guarantee winning (see the Steelers).  But excluding teams led by HOF-caliber QB's (like Brady), most teams have more- need more- high-end talent than we still possess to play well.  Quality coaching helps, which we have, but isn't enough.

 

If I had any influence over this draft, I would place upside at a premium, especially after this FA haul.  The realistic ability to reach that upside, too, but believing what still separates the Bills from most teams being difference-making & high-end talent... I would eschew "safe/high floor/ground-rule double" prospects for prospects potentially riskier but with higher ceilings.

 

To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not on the board at 9.

 

Doesn't this statement just contradict everything you said previously?  Because Ed Oliver's upside is Aaron Donald level production.  That doesn't mean he will actually deliver Aaron Donald level production, but that is where his upside is.  Ed Oliver is NOT a "safe/high floor/ ground-rule double" prospect.  He's an undersized DT who shows remarkable penetration, but was used horribly in college as a 2 gap DT instead of a 1 gap penetrating type DT, and so was not used to his best ability most of the time.  His upside is that he is used correctly in the NFL, penetrates Olines on a regular basis, and becomes just as disruptive as Aaron Donald.  His floor is that he's out of the league in two years after he gets pushed around by superior competition because he's undersized.  

 

I was with you 100% until that last line.  But yes, the draft is where you obtain (and perhaps more importantly, RETAIN) your stars.  FA is used to fill in around them.  Which is why it's never made sense to me that FA comes BEFORE the draft...

[Midwest1981]

2 minutes ago, Haplo848 said:

 

Doesn't this statement just contradict everything you said previously?  Because Ed Oliver's upside is Aaron Donald level production.  That doesn't mean he will actually deliver Aaron Donald level production, but that is where his upside is.  Ed Oliver is NOT a "safe/high floor/ ground-rule double" prospect.  He's an undersized DT who shows remarkable penetration, but was used horribly in college as a 2 gap DT instead of a 1 gap penetrating type DT, and so was not used to his best ability most of the time.  His upside is that he is used correctly in the NFL, penetrates Olines on a regular basis, and becomes just as disruptive as Aaron Donald.  His floor is that he's out of the league in two years after he gets pushed around by superior competition because he's undersized.  

 

I was with you 100% until that last line.  But yes, the draft is where you obtain (and perhaps more importantly, RETAIN) your stars.  FA is used to fill in around them.  Which is why it's never made sense to me that FA comes BEFORE the draft...

VERY sorry & I've edited.  I really like Oliver, as the first part of the sentence shows, & I've amended the last part.  I meant to type this:

 

"To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not OFF the board at 9."

Edited April 2, 2019 by Midwest1981

[ducej11]

28 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

I would say that Beane is all about building the best 53-man roster than he can without ruining our salary cap position for any year in the future.  He values all eleven players on the field and wants quality depth to drive a competitive environment to get the best out of every player.

 

Whaley's strategy was to have a few elite superstars on the roster (Mario Williams, Watkins, McCoy) with the remaining spots filled with whatever money was left.

 

I believe that Beane's approach to building a full roster will win out in the end, as rosters with holes get exploited.  The defense is as good as the weakest player, who will be exploited by the opponents offensive game plan.  Offences that can't run, get receivers in double-coverage.  Offences that can't pass, face eight men in the box.  

 

This offseason has been about shoring up the weakest parts of our roster, where we had back-up caliber players in starting positions.  We didn't add superstars to our roster, but we have replaced back-ups with starters and it will show on the field.

 

In the draft, Beane will stick to his word and take the best player available early in the draft and then draft more for need later in the draft when the spread from player to player is less.

 

I am going into this draft, felling relaxed and trusting the process.  If I'm surprised by the first pick, I will assume the pick is good and that the media doesn't know as much as our scouts.  

I agree with what you said here. Whaley took a more NBA approach to building the roster. He was looking for a few stars and would just fill in gaps with whatever money was available. That works in the NBA because it's a stars driven game and one player makes a bigger impact in each game. It doesn't work in the NFL and as we have seen with the Pats, it's about the collective 53. The Pats haven't had many true stars over the years besides maybe Brady and a handful of others.

[BillsFan1988]

The way i would do it is target difference maker talents that can't be found via trades or free agency.  

 

Other then QB

TE is the #1 position for this type of philosophy.  So let's start by drafting TJ Hock. He's the best all round TE since Gronk . 

 

This is the supply and demand method of building .

 

TE

DE

OT

CB

DT3

 

These are the differences maker positions other then the obvious QB

 

 

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

The way i would do it is target difference maker talents that can't be found via trades or free agency.  

 

Other then QB

TE is the #1 position for this type of philosophy.  So let's start by drafting TJ Hock. He's the best all round TE since Gronk . 

 

This is the supply and demand method of building .

 

TE

DE

OT

CB

DT3

 

These are the differences maker positions other then the obvious QB

 

 

I guess the question becomes....is the TE position a difference maker?

 

(and I am not saying that it is not...just that it is open for debate)

 

We KNOW that difference makers are.......

 

Quarterback (we have one)

Guys that rush the passer (we need one)

Guys that can stop the other teams pass rusher (we need one)

[Midwest1981]

16 hours ago, ducej11 said:

I agree with what you said here. Whaley took a more NBA approach to building the roster. He was looking for a few stars and would just fill in gaps with whatever money was available. That works in the NBA because it's a stars driven game and one player makes a bigger impact in each game. It doesn't work in the NFL and as we have seen with the Pats, it's about the collective 53. The Pats haven't had many true stars over the years besides maybe Brady and a handful of others.

It's mistaken to believe that the NFL is not largely predicated on stars.  Chemistry is vital, too; not everything is about how star-laden & studded teams' rosters are relative to their counterparts.  But look at how many Rams & Chiefs comprised both the All Pro & Pro Bowl rosters.  Or how many members of the Bears' defense were represented.  Even just look at who makes the Playoffs and who gets to their conference championship games.  Doesn't have to be this year- it can be any year.  But take this year.  You don't think the Chiefs, Rams, Saints, & Patriots have special talent?  I'll grant you that- Brady aside- the Patriots don't have top-quarter of the league talent.  But Kansas City, Los Angeles, & New Orleans clearly do.  And with New England, you have more leeway & liberty to construct a roster not so star-driven when you have a generational & the most accomplished QB of all time in Brady.  And the best coach of all time.

 

I am a supporter & believer in Allen but if he ascends to a level where the Bills don't need more high-end talent than they have right now, which is near the bottom of the league with perhaps only one really special unit (our secondary), it likely won't be for a while.  I think the Bills need more needle-moving, difference-making talent to really contend.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Midwest1981

[MAJBobby]

More like what most good teams do.

 

UFA is to fill IMMEDIATE holes, which opens up Best Football Player available come Draft time.

[Steve Billieve]

Team culture is the difference maker.

All of our good, established, players were free agents or we traded for them.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Midwest1981 said:

First of all, FA is rarely replete with stars; very rarely are you able to add a Drew Brees (2006), Julius Peppers (2010), or even a Mario Williams (2012).  So anyone expecting that the Bills would've been able to load up on top-tier talent in FA were deluding themselves.  That said, we didn't- we added 8-9 guys who will serve a role and contribute, some more than others, and should collectively improve this team bur arguably don't move the needle in a seismic way.  Because they're contributors- they're not needle-movers.  Which is fine.  Which is FA.  Other than the Jets, no other team added more than one player in FA who are in the top-10 at their respective positions.  But doesn't that compel the Bills to desire difference-making, special talent in the draft?  Isn't that what we're still clearly missing?

 

I know that's obvious- every team's looking for special talent in the draft.  But what I'm saying is, arguably having started last year with high ceiling/low to medium floors type of prospects in Allen & Edmunds, doesn't Buffalo need more unique talent to take a MAJOR step, if not this year but soon?

 

If you compare rosters league-wide, while I disagree with it and know the Bills' roster is decidedly under-valued, the Vegas perception that the Bills are about a 6-win team is in part because there isn't a lot of high-end talent on this roster.  High-end talent- shoot, even abundant talent itself- doesn't guarantee winning (see the Steelers).  But excluding teams led by HOF-caliber QB's (like Brady), most teams have more- need more- high-end talent than we still possess to play well.  Quality coaching helps, which we have, but isn't enough.

 

If I had any influence over this draft, I would place upside at a premium, especially after this FA haul.  The realistic ability to reach that upside, too, but believing what still separates the Bills from most teams being difference-making & high-end talent... I would eschew "safe/high floor/ground-rule double" prospects for prospects potentially riskier but with higher ceilings.

 

To illustrate this, let's hope Ed Oliver's sizzling Combine & Pro Day means he's not off the board at 9.

 

If you build a roster that is "top-heavy" with highly paid stars, then you aren't going to have the cap space for strong depth. 

Would you rather have three solid guys at $4 million per year or one Top 10-15 guy for $12 million? 

 

To me, the NFL's best teams seem to be those with a franchise QB, a small handful of stars and strong depth throughout the entire 53-man roster.

Not the teams who are relying on 5-6 guys to do everything (and hope they don't get hurt).

 

Personally, I was most impressed with Beane's ability to avoid long-term cap commitments. 

Listening to him speak, he definitely understands that long-term success comes through the draft.  Not through free agency.

He knows that free agency is necessary right now to help fill-in the weak points.  But long-term, he wants to build this roster with guys he selects in April.  Not March.

 

 

[Midwest1981]

20 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

More like what most good teams do.

 

UFA is to fill IMMEDIATE holes, which opens up Best Football Player available come Draft time.

I agree with this- FA is a supplementary roster tool to both improve your roster and to open up options in the draft and not to pigeonhole picks according to need.  That's how it's used for most teams in the league.  We just so happen to presently find ourselves with a decently well-rounded but largely star-absent roster.  Any team could use more elite talent but I feel we need special talent more than most.  And we unsurprisingly didn't find it in FA.

 

I would just be willing to take more risks than others might be, believing what we need/lack is 'special' rather than solid.

Edited April 2, 2019 by Midwest1981

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Midwest1981 said:

I agree with this- FA is a supplementary roster tool to both improve your roster and to open up options in the draft and not to pigeonhole picks according to need.  That's how it's used for most teams in the league.  We just so happen to presently find ourselves with a decently well-rounded but not very largely star-absent roster.  Any team could use more elite talent but I feel we need special talent more than most.  And we unsurprisingly didn't find it in FA.

 

I would just be willing to take more risks than others might be, believing what we need/lack is 'special' rather than solid.

I get it, and the Bills think that way as well.  Look at the Edmonds pick.  I just do not see a big separation in the top talent thru about 15 that needs to be moved up for.  Some have the dropoff a little sooner (around the 12 mark)

[Rc2catch]

Beane is clearly building a core group of 10-15 young talented franchise cornerstones. Who will be here a long time. Free agency is just to put some talent around those guys. Moving pieces if you will. Every successful NFL franchise has roughly 10 players everyone can identify and those players stay for 5-10 years. That’s your window. 

Those 10 players are 99% of the time drafted and retained when the rookie deal expires. You’ll find some exceptions of course but Beanes goal has clearly always been to build his own core group of young players to lead this team into the future 

[Toesy]

What you are missing is that Beane already stated publicly that his goal is not to assemble the most talented roster possible-his goal is to win the Super Bowl, which is something different. There isn't anybody in this draft with more natural ability to play NFL football than Marcell Dareus and Beane moved him out.  

[Midwest1981]

2 minutes ago, Toesy said:

What you are missing is that Beane already stated publicly that his goal is not to assemble the most talented roster possible-his goal is to win the Super Bowl, which is something different. There isn't anybody in this draft with more natural ability to play NFL football than Marcell Dareus and Beane moved him out.  

Those aren't mutually exclusive goals- isn't Beane attempting to infuse this roster with more talent?  If he isn't then the job shouldn't be his.  

 

Talent alone doesn't win but it is still a critical component. Perhaps most of this is moot since Allen/Edmunds, like I wrote in the initial post, seem to demonstrate that the Bills do pursue high upside guys, even if they bring a bit of risk.  My only point is that the Bills are still missing high-end, needle-moving talent relative to most teams in the league, teams that have mostly had more success than us in large part to more difference-makers on their rosters.  I hope we continue to pursue that high-end talent because it remains a significant part, though not the entire part, of developing a consistent winner.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Forward Progress said:

I would say that Beane is all about building the best 53-man roster than he can without ruining our salary cap position for any year in the future.  He values all eleven players on the field and wants quality depth to drive a competitive environment to get the best out of every player.

 

Whaley's strategy was to have a few elite superstars on the roster (Mario Williams, Watkins, McCoy) with the remaining spots filled with whatever money was left.

 

I believe that Beane's approach to building a full roster will win out in the end, as rosters with holes get exploited.  The defense is as good as the weakest player, who will be exploited by the opponents offensive game plan.  Offences that can't run, get receivers in double-coverage.  Offences that can't pass, face eight men in the box.  

 

This offseason has been about shoring up the weakest parts of our roster, where we had back-up caliber players in starting positions.  We didn't add superstars to our roster, but we have replaced back-ups with starters and it will show on the field.

 

In the draft, Beane will stick to his word and take the best player available early in the draft and then draft more for need later in the draft when the spread from player to player is less.

 

I am going into this draft, felling relaxed and trusting the process.  If I'm surprised by the first pick, I will assume the pick is good and that the media doesn't know as much as our scouts.  

 

 

...pretty darn good assessment bud...I see McBeane (FWIW, probably nothing) as a diabolical, methodical long term planner.....I'd bet he is formulating his 2019 Big Board BUT has already started sketching 2020 as to what collegians may be available as well as possible UFA's, factoring in an estimated cap number......could even see a 3 or 4 year matrix charting all contracts, so he knows effects of 2019 FA spendings, eventual player(s) option years as well as financial impacts of 2019 draft picks longer term depending on round/contracts, including long term cap implications....."Bo knows" and "McBeane knows"....think the "F Troop" that ran the show post Polian did this?.....um, okay............

Edited April 2, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[GreggTX]

Beane just said "Free Agency is about needs and the draft is about BPA." He has done a pretty good job of making a rough patch for nearly all the holes on this roster. This sets him up well for going BPA on days 1 and 2. After that, players' grades won't differ much anyways, so he can fill more holes or double down on a hole if he thinks he needs to. Day 3 is also a good day to add rookies with ST experience.

[TigerJ]

Beane has essentially stated that free agency is all about plugging holes so that when you get to the draft you can take to best players available.  He does not want to find himself in a position of having to draft for need.  First round picks get a four year contract with a fifth year option.  You at least like to have that player contribute for four years.  If it is longer, that's the cherry on the sundae.  Your second round players get a four year deal and later picks get three year deals.  If your scouting department is competent, you'll have a better than average number of rookie draft picks play out their contracts and get an offer for an extension.  (Buffalo has been far worse than average just about forever.)  You're combining competence with continuity.  That is the recipe for success in the NFL long term.  The better you draft, the less dependent you'll be on free agency to fill holes because you won't have as many.  

 

Looking back and when McDermott and Beane arrived on the scene, the Bills were in a bad place cap wise.  Beane signed mostly low level, cheap free agents because cap space wouldn't allow him to spend more.  As a result, holes weren't filled with good players.  This year, the cap situation has been much better.  Beane still; refrained from doing many big splash signings.   The biggest signing was a center.  Mostly what he got were second tier guys willing to sign shorter contracts for less money in hopes of having a big year and getting a much bigger contract the next time around.  Obviously, many of them aren't going to be around that long.  A few might get contract extensions.