Gunner's 2019 1st Round Mock (UPDATE - Final Version now published)

[Just Joshin']

3 hours ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

How do you not trade up for Bosa if he's going to he Jets!!! Also Hock needs tp be traded up  for by us... I'll be adamant between and draft for Bosa, Hockenson and Isabella

OK - I will bite.  How is this done realistically?

[wppete]

Great job ?. Fingers crossed we end up with Ed Oliver at #9. I can’t wait for the draft!

[BillsFan1988]

Good work Gunner , I would love Oliver at 9 I just don't see him making it there.  Some team will take him before us. To much potential to pass up. 

[Sherlock Holmes]

4 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Who's gonna start digging up old tweets of Bosa/Allen/Hock on draft night?

Not even sure that would help, even with some bombshells.

??

I once heard that they would all accept the D suckage I would be giving out... Boom, let the slides begin!!!!

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

OK - I will bite.  How is this done realistically?

Dunno, if Bosa slides to 3 or 4 maybe slip a 2nd next year and both 4ths this year along with our 1st. 

 

Hock: Slips to 2nd because Fant goes before... Trade both our 5th round picks if necessary.

 

Isabella: Maybe he slips to 3rd round with new info out

[yungmack]

Much appreciate the solid work you did. Seems plausible to.

[DCOrange]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My grade on Hock is a low 1st yes. And it isn't quite 7.1 out of 10 but basically yes that is what I constitute a 1st round grade and I have never had a draft where I have had 32 of them. 

 

As I have already explained above... grading and mocking are totally different. I think Hock is in play for the Broncos at #10 based on a full consideration of the state of that franchise. I wouldn't take him there but there are reasons to believe Denver might. 

 

My big board and my mock draft are not much alike. 

 

This isn't a shot at you, just always something I've found interesting. Literally every draft analyst seems to say the same thing; that they've never had 32 first round grades in a draft.

 

I feel like by that logic, the definition of a 1st round grade is too strict. For the concept of a first round grade to work, there should be some draft in the history of scouting that had 32 first round grades.

 

If that has never actually occurred, then I don't think that is really a first round grade; it's something with a higher threshold than that.

 

Again, not a shot at you and I don't mean that every draft should have 32 of them; I just think we're mislabeling the grades if there's never been a draft with 32 first round grades (or 30 or however many teams there were when people first began doing this).

 

Anywho, good work on the mock. I'd love the Oliver pick. I won't bother nitpicking until we get closer to the draft

Edited April 1, 2019 by DCOrange

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

This isn't a shot at you, just always something I've found interesting. Literally every draft analyst seems to say the same thing; that they've never had 32 first round grades in a draft.

 

I feel like by that logic, the definition of a 1st round grade is too strict. For the concept of a first round grade to work, there should be some draft in the history of scouting that had 32 first round grades.

 

Closest I have had (I started in 2014) is 26 proper "first round grades".

 

I am not so sure I agree with your logic though. Because I think the reality of most drafts is there is a group of players who are slam dunk first rounders. That is never 32 players. To me that is what a first round grade is. There is then in most drafts a batch of players who are at a pretty similar level and could go in the first or the 2nd..... normally what I judge to be the best of those get a "borderline" grade and the rest get a high 2nd round grade. Now I am not saying that is perfect but to me that is better than saying "anyone who is in the top 32 on my big board is a first round grade" because I think that way you lose the objective measure of what a first round grade actually is.

[DCOrange]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Closest I have had (I started in 2014) is 26 proper "first round grades".

 

I am not so sure I agree with your logic though. Because I think the reality of most drafts is there is a group of players who are slam dunk first rounders. That is never 32 players. To me that is what a first round grade is. There is then in most drafts a batch of players who are at a pretty similar level and could go in the first or the 2nd..... normally what I judge to be the best of those get a "borderline" grade and the rest get a high 2nd round grade. Now I am not saying that is perfect but to me that is better than saying "anyone who is in the top 32 on my big board is a first round grade" because I think that way you lose the objective measure of what a first round grade actually is.

 

It's really just semantics, but I would argue that a slam dunk 1st rounder =/= a first round grade; it's something more than that IMO.

 

And I agree that "anyone who is in the top 32 on my big board is a first round grade" is wrong. That shouldn't be the case every season.

 

But just logically speaking, if the idea of a first round grade is truly based on being a first round caliber pick, then in the very least, the original year that that grade was introduced should have had the same number of first round grades as there were first round picks since you were literally creating the idea of a first round caliber prospect around that year's draft.

 

Anyways, it doesn't really mean anything; I just always get sort of a chuckle out of everyone saying there's only roughly 20 first caliber players in the draft every single year.

[BringBackOrton]

42 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

It's really just semantics, but I would argue that a slam dunk 1st rounder =/= a first round grade; it's something more than that IMO.

 

And I agree that "anyone who is in the top 32 on my big board is a first round grade" is wrong. That shouldn't be the case every season.

 

But just logically speaking, if the idea of a first round grade is truly based on being a first round caliber pick, then in the very least, the original year that that grade was introduced should have had the same number of first round grades as there were first round picks since you were literally creating the idea of a first round caliber prospect around that year's draft.

 

Anyways, it doesn't really mean anything; I just always get sort of a chuckle out of everyone saying there's only roughly 20 first caliber players in the draft every single year.

But not all first round picks are equal.  #1 and #32 are much different.

 

There's guys you'd run to the podium if they were available at #32 that you wouldn't even consider at #1.  That's just the nature of the draft and scouting process.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Good stuff Gunner! I haven't projected any trades at this point, but we have 9 identical picks (for now).

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

But not all first round picks are equal.  #1 and #32 are much different.

 

There's guys you'd run to the podium if they were available at #32 that you wouldn't even consider at #1.  That's just the nature of the draft and scouting process.

Of course, there's different tiers of prospects within each round.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Good stuff Gunner! I haven't projected any trades at this point, but we have 9 identical picks (for now).

 

I would take 9 correct on draft night that would beat my personal best of 7! 

[DrDawkinstein]

Nice work, Gunner. Thanks for posting.

 

My favorite thing about this mock is that the Pats dont take a 1st round pick!

 

And I like the Oliver-to-Bills pick.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

good stuff, but if Drew Lock is sitting at #32, no way NE trades out, unless they pick up Rosen.

[GunnerBill]

Here it is - v2.0 and final is up:

 

1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray - Quarterback - Oklahoma    Pick unchanged

I don’t buy the “going in another direction” chat. The Cardinals are taking Kyler Murray - a talented Quarterback but he is also a big risk. A one year college starter, who committed to playing football very late, with less than ideal size, going to a team with very few pieces in place around him.

 

2. 49ers - Nick Bosa - Defensive End - Ohio State        (Previously Quinnen Williams)

I have been on the Quinnen Williams bus at #2 but as the draft gets closer I am increasingly of the view that the more obvious approach for a regime entering year 3 needing to win is the guy who can bring pressure and force turnovers. The 49ers defense managed just 7 takeaways all last season.  

 

3. Jets - Quinnen Williams - Defensive Tackle - Alabama    (Previously Nick Bosa)

I am still of the view that the Jets would take Bosa if he made it to this spot but there has been a lot of talk about them taking a defensive tackle - whether that be Williams or Oliver as the draft approaches and Gregg Williams seems to feel that is required to make his defense operate at full capacity.

 

4. Raiders - Devin White - Linebacker - LSU            Pick unchanged

The Raiders could still decide to go Quarterback here but their defense was a mess last season particularly a linebacker where they lacked speed and athleticism. They have signed Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict as free agents but both are 1 year prove it type deals and neither has the capacity to be a sideline to sideline difference maker which is what they would get with Devin White. White just feels like a guy Mike Mayock the analyst would have loved. Will Mike Mayock the GM?

 

5. Buccaneers - Josh Allen - Outside Linebacker - Kentucky    Pick unchanged

Tampa’s defense needs plenty of help but the change from Mike Smith to Todd Bowles at Defensive Coordinator is a significant upgrade. The next task is to find a dominant pass rusher and Allen is a good scheme fit as an outside linebacker in the type of 3-4 defense that Bowles likes to run.

 

6. Giants - Ed Oliver - Defensive Tackle - Houston        (Previously Rashan Gary)

Most people agree that the Giants need a Quarterback. That said Dave Gettleman ignored those cries last season and there are whispers that New York doesn’t have Dwayne Haskins at the top of their board. Therefore, with a second 1st rounder to come, I suspect the Giants will take a defensive player to replenish a defensive line that has lost Jason Pierre-Paul, Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon over the past 12 months. In version 1 I had Rashan Gary here but with his shoulder issue I have slotted Ed Oliver in to the G Men.

 

7. Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor - Offensive Tackle - Florida    Pick unchanged

The Jaguars are another team who could look at a Quarterback but their commitment to Nick Foles is for at least two, and likely three, seasons. Foles’ best form in the NFL came behind an Eagles offensive line with bookend tackles in the shape of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson. Cam Robinson has been a little up and down in his two years as Jacksonville’s starting left tackle but has shown some encouraging signs and plugging in Jawaan Taylor on the right hand side would help keep Foles clean in the pocket.

 

8. TRADE! Texans - Andre Dillard - Offensive Tackle - Washington     (Previously Montez Sweat to Detroit)  

Houston gets #8; Detroit gets #23, #54 and #55

From what has been reported out there the Texans absolutely love Andre Dillard and they have a clear need at tackle to keep DeShaun Watson cleaner in the pocket. Bandit had the Texans making this trade with the Bills but I don’t know that Houston would totally rule Buffalo out of the tackle market themselves and therefore they jump up to #8 and a Lions team still rebuilding is happy to slide back.

 

9. Bills - Brian Burns - Defensive End - Florida State         (Previously Ed Oliver)

Based on the track record of the regime in Buffalo so far you can all but rule out those who haven’t made visits to the facility. When you look at those who have and what is left on the board it could well come down to Burns vs DK Metcalf at this spot. But given what Brandon Beane has said previously about not subscribing to the #1 receiver theory and the fact that we know the Bills have tried to upgrade at defensive end enquiring about trades for Jadaveon Clowney and Frank Clark and working out Free Agent Ziggy Ansah I think they might just edge towards the pass rusher at this spot.

 

10. Broncos - TJ Hockenson - Tight End - Iowa            Pick unchanged

Denver will ultimately need to find a long term answer at Quarterback but the decisions to hire a veteran coach (though first time Head Coach) in Vic Fangio and trade for Joe Flacco suggest that the Broncos are going to have one more go at winning now before embarking on a rebuild of sorts. Flacco has always loved utilising tight ends in the passing game and there is nobody to speak of in that regard on the Denver roster at the moment. Hockenson would change that and contribute as a blocker at the same time.

 

11. Bengals - Devin Bush - Linebacker - Michigan    (Previously Jonah Williams)

Cincinnati has multiple needs but Bush is about best player available without a major injury red flag at this stage and he would be a mar upgrade to a linebacking corps that is distinctly lacking in speed and playmaking ability. .

 

12. Packers - Jonah Williams - Offensive Line - Alabama  (Previously Dwayne Haskins to Washington)

A lot of people have linked Green Bay with offensive weapons but maybe a sneaky area of need is their offensive line which has been in decline over the past couple of years which has contributed to the injuries Aaron Rodgers has suffered. I understand that Green Bay likes Dillard but left tackle David Bakhtiari is the best player on their line so maybe someone more versatile like Williams is a better fit.  

 

13. Dolphins - Rashan Gary - Defensive End - Michigan     (Previously Cody Ford)

So Rashan Gary probably needs shoulder surgery and won’t be ready for week 1 of the season if he has it done straight after the draft. That means maybe half or even a full redshirt season for the former Wolverine but if any team can afford to sit a genuine talent like Gary and wait for 2020 it is the team who seem destined to tank the season as they tear down the roster and start from scratch.

 

14. Falcons - Christian Wilkins - Defensive Tackle - Clemson     Pick unchanged

Atlanta had a bottom 5 run defense in 2018 and their on viable starter on the interior of the defensive line - Grady Jarrett - is slated at this stage to play on the franchise tag. Christian Wilkins was a leader and a playmaker on the national championship winning Clemson defense and while he lacks some wow factor is one of the safest selections in the 2019 draft.

 

15. Redskins - Dwayne Haskins - Quarterback - Ohio State      (Previously Devin Bush to Green Bay)

The reality is maybe Washington will have to move up to secure Haskins who I still believe is the second best Quarterback in this draft and with rumours that Mr Snyder has taken over the draft room that seems very plausible. That said as it falls in this mock the Redskins can sit at #15 and get their signal caller of the future and the acquisition of Case Keenum means they don’t need to rush Haskins out here early if he isn’t quite ready to start week 1.  

 

16. Panthers - Clelin Ferrell - Defensive End - Clemson        Pick unchanged

Carolina are well positioned at #16 to address their critical need at defensive end. I considered changing this pick but I still think Clelin Ferrell fits this scheme better than most as he has the profile of that big end that the Panthers have generally utilised under Ron Rivera and various defensive coordinators. He has been into Carolina on a pre-draft visit too so I am sticking with the Clemson Tiger coming off the board at this spot.

 

17. Giants - Daniel Jones - Quarterback - Duke    (Previously DK Metcalf)

First things first - I still am not 100% convinced that Dave Gettleman believes he needs a Quaterback or wants to take one out of this class. Secondly, I do not think Daniel Jones is a first round talent. That said maybe his link to the Manning family through Duke Head Coach David Cutcliffe means that this could be the Giants’ best shot of a seamless transition from Eli to his successor without creating animosity and hurt feelings. That counts for something, right?

 

18. Vikings - Cody Ford - Offensive Line - Oklahoma     (Previously Andre Dillard)

Minnesota are committed to Kirk Cousins so they need to make sure that they give him the best possible chance to succeed. Due to injury, retirement and losses in free agency the 2018 offensive line was messy at best. With Taylor, Dillard and Williams off the board the ice is getting a little thin as far as top end offensive line options are concerned and so the Vikings snag the versatile Cody Ford who could start at guard, right tackle or even replace Riley Rieff on the left hand side and allow him to revert to his preferred right tackle spot.

 

19. TRADE! Detroit - Byron Murphy - Cornerback - Washington (Previously Brian Burns to Tennessee)

Detroit gets #19; Tennessee gets #23 and #88

Detroit has been heavily scouting Quarterbacks this spring and with some draft capital in their back pocket from their earlier trade back they jump back up to get in front of the Steelers and the Seahawks as the run on corners begins. Murphy is a lot of people’s idea of the best corner in this class. I’ve sided with him here over Greedy Williams because he feels a better fit for Matt Patricia’s defense where the corners are expected to come up and tackle in run support. Critically Murphy has been into the Lions facility on an official visit too.

 

20. Steelers - Greedy Williams - Cornerback - LSU        Pick unchanged

Greedy Williams seems to have slipped down draft boards since the season ended but his tape still puts him in the conversation to be a top 10 pick. The only reason I can see him sliding is the number of teams ahead of this spot who will likely target offensive tackles and edge rushers. The Steelers have needed a #1 corner for a number of years. They drafted Artie Burns in the 1st round of the 2016 draft but he has been benched multiple times since the start of last season and they look ready to move on.

 

21. Seahawks - Johnathan Abram - Safety - Mississippi State     (Previously Deionte Thompson)

The success of the Seattle defense since Pete Carroll arrived has been its simplicity. Critical to that has been versatile safeties who can tackle, cover, anticipate and communicate. Kam Chancellor is now pretty much retired and Earl Thomas left in free agency. It is time to build Legion of Boom version 2.0 and while I had Deionte Thompson here in my first mock I now feel Abram is more likely to be the first safety off the board.

 

22. TRADE! Broncos - Drew Lock - Quarterback - Missouri   (Previously Garrett Bradbury to Baltimore)

Denver gets #22; Baltimore gets #41, #71 & 2020 3rd round pick

There is only one of the four potential first round Quarterbacks left on the boardand the two Raiders picks are approaching. Therefore, for the second time in two years a team with Joe Flacco as its starting Quarterback trades back up into the 1st round to select the guy who will ultimately replace him. Denver is sad to be high on Lock but I am sceptical that means high enough to take him 10th overall. This way he can sit for a year refine his game, work on his inconsistent accuracy and compete for the starting job in 2020.

 

23. Titans - Montez Sweat - Defensive End - Mississippi State         (Previously Greg Little to Houston)

Brian Orakpo hit the wall quickly last season and his deterioration and subsequent retirement, coupled with Derrick Morgan’s decline left the Titans with very little pass rush threat from the outside. I expect Jon Robinson and Mike Vrabel to seek to address that at #19 given the strength of this class of edge rushers. Montez Sweat was a top 10 pick until news about his heart situation leaked out. He is off some boards but given their need at the position maybe Tennessee is willing to take a chance on him.

 

24. TRADE! Bills - DK Metcalf - Wide Receiver - Mississippi    (Previously Daniel Jones to Oakland)

Buffalo gets #24; Oakland gets #40, #112 and 2020 2nd rounder

If Metcalf gets past the Bills at #9the slide could well be on as until you get to the likes of Seattle and Baltimore in the early 20s there are not too many teams likely to be targeting a receiver early in this class. If he gets past those teams maybe the Buffalo Bills jump up to land a physical freak with a 2nd first round pick… very much as they did last year when snagging Tremaine Edmunds.  

 

25. Eagles - Dexter Lawrence - Defensive Tackle - Clemson     (Previously Byron Murphy)

While defensive tackle might not be the most obvious need on the Eagles’ roster Lawrence feels like a perfect fit for Jim Schwartz’s defense. Big enough and powerful to be a disruptive force inside against the run and athletic enough to take advantage of 1 on 1 opportunities afforded to him in the pass game to allow him to get to the Quarterback.

 

26. Colts - Rock Ya-Sin - Cornerback - Temple            (Previously Jachai Polite)

Chris Ballard has done a terrific job rebuilding the Indianapolis Colts since taking over as General Manager. They do need pass rush but they also need a true #1 corner. Ya-Sin has risen quickly up draft boards and I remain unconvinced about his readiness to step in and play day 1 in the NFL. That said he is the kind of high ceiling kid that you can absolutely see Ballard liking and being willing to bring along slowly.

 

27. Raiders - Noah Fant - Tight End - Iowa        Pick unchanged

With Jared Cook gone the Raiders have a desperate need for a receiving tight end. The number one tight end on their depth chart currently is Lee Smith who is strictly a blocking specialist. Fant needs to work on his all round game to become a top tight end in the league but he is already a dangerous offensive weapon with good hands and better than average speed for the position.

 

28. Chargers - Dalton Risner - Offensive Tackle - Kansas State      Pick unchanged

The Los Angeles Chargers have a deep and strong roster in a number of areas but they need help on the offensive line. With a number of offensive linemen already off the board they could go in a different direction at this spot but Risner is also a nice fit here. He might be a little ledden footed to ever be more than a right tackle at the NFL level but he could start immediately on the right side.

 

29. Seahawks - Jaylon Ferguson - Defensive End - Louisiana Tech    (Previously Jaylon Ferguson to Kansas City)

I don’t think this has ever happened before where a team has traded a pick between versions of my mock and I have left the same player in the same spot going to the new holders of the pick - so this is a first! I am a huge fan of Jaylon Ferguson and he had an outstanding 2018 season. I understand the questions about the competition he has played against but put on the Mississippi State tape and watch him stand out even against good opposition. Trading Frank Clark to the Chiefs created a need for pass rush help in Seattle.

 

30. Packers - AJ Brown - Wide Receiver - Mississippi        Pick unchanged

It has been a tough couple of years for Aaron Rodgers watching his trusted targets Jordy Nelson and now Randall Cobb walk out of the door. However, there is a player in this draft who reminds me of Cobb in many ways and it is Mississippi’s AJ Brown. I think he can be a physical presence in the slot or a smooth intermediate route runner with safe hands on the outside. Slot him in opposite Davante Adams and prepare to watch Green Bay make another run. Since my first version AJ Brown has made an official pre-draft visit to the Packers.

 

31. Rams - Jeffery Simmons - Defensive Tackle - Mississippi State     (Previously Dexter Lawrence)

Los Angeles never really seemed to best out of Ndamukong Suh last season until the playoffs. He has now departed leaving a space for a disruptive tackle to slot in next to Aaron Donald. They might have to wait a year for Simmons but this is a top 10 type talent at the end of the first round.

 

32. Patriots - JoeJuan Williams - Cornerback - Vanderbilt        (Previously Drew Lock to Denver)

JoeJuan Williams is a corner I am higher on than most and he seems like a perfect fit for  Patriots scheme and pencilled in opposite Stephon Gilmore would give them one of the best corner duos in the whole of the NFL. There is a lot of smoke around this on as well. The Patriots have met with Williams three times in the run up to the draft and their interest seems to be very real.

 

[TOboy]

I don’t love Burns at 9, but I love DK as a second 1st round pick.

 

Definitely a high ceiling draft.

[DrDawkinstein]

14 minutes ago, TOboy said:

I don’t love Burns at 9, but I love DK as a second 1st round pick.

 

Definitely a high ceiling draft.

 

Agreed, Burns alone is disappointing at 9, but with Oliver gone and adding in Metcalf, makes for a decent overall 1st round haul. I also like keeping our 1st next year in this trade scenario.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed, Burns alone is disappointing at 9, but with Oliver gone and adding in Metcalf, makes for a decent overall 1st round haul. I also like keeping our 1st next year in this trade scenario.

 

Yea whether what it would cost us quite works I am not sure. It does on the chart but in reality might be a bit cheap. 

[dave mcbride]

I think that the chances of a LB going in the top 5 are VERY slim. I suspect that Devin White is not going to go nearly as high as people think - non-pass rushing LBs are the defensive equivalents of RBs - lots of 'em and easily replaceable. 

 

Anyway, I think White is being placed too high in far too many mocks.