SouthNYfan Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: When I grade I watch the tape evaluate and assign a number. I plot those numbers onto a board with some objective barometers that don't change year to year. So on my board you need to be a 7.1 or better to be a true first round grade. A 7.0 or a 6.9 is my borderline category. I don't give every player a grade and then draw the line after the 32nd player and say "anyone above the line is a first round grade." Indeed I don't know anyone who does it like that. Because it doesn't work like that. Some drafts are stronger than others. One draft a few years ago (2016) I only had 19 true 1st round grades. So you're saying that, in your system, if somebody isn't at least a 7.1 out of 10 they aren't worth a first round pick, and that usually doesn't extend to the top32? Still, you have been touting hock as bottom first/early second and yet he's #10 on your draft. I really don't see how that makes sense, even with your grading system
GunnerBill Posted March 31, 2019 Author Posted March 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: So you're saying that, in your system, if somebody isn't at least a 7.1 out of 10 they aren't worth a first round pick, and that usually doesn't extend to the top32? Still, you have been touting hock as bottom first/early second and yet he's #10 on your draft. I really don't see how that makes sense, even with your grading system My grade on Hock is a low 1st yes. And it isn't quite 7.1 out of 10 but basically yes that is what I constitute a 1st round grade and I have never had a draft where I have had 32 of them. As I have already explained above... grading and mocking are totally different. I think Hock is in play for the Broncos at #10 based on a full consideration of the state of that franchise. I wouldn't take him there but there are reasons to believe Denver might. My big board and my mock draft are not much alike.
NewEra Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: So you're saying that, in your system, if somebody isn't at least a 7.1 out of 10 they aren't worth a first round pick, and that usually doesn't extend to the top32? Still, you have been touting hock as bottom first/early second and yet he's #10 on your draft. I really don't see how that makes sense, even with your grading system You apparently missed the Barboza -Gaethje fight. You should go watch it right now
#34fan Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 (edited) Excellent work... However, these are some things I can see happening. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 1. Cardinals - Kyler Murray - Quarterback - Oklahoma The Cardinals seem set on moving on from Josh Rosen after just one season, which feels very premature. Kyler Murray is a talented Quarterback but he is also a big risk. A one year college starter, who committed to playing football very late, with less than ideal size, going to a team with very few pieces in place around him. F what the Cards are hinting to the media outlets, this pick is for sale... If Kyler has been sold as the #1 player in this draft, -expect someone desperate for a change at QB to come up and get him. -Cards score a king's ransom with this ruse. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 4. Raiders - Devin White - Linebacker - LSU The Raiders defense was a mess last season particularly a linebacker where they lacked speed and athleticism. They have signed Brandon Marshall and Vontaze Burfict as free agents but both are 1 year prove it type deals and neither has the capacity to be a sideline to sideline difference maker which is what they would get with Devin White. I hope Gruden knows Better... The #1 Pick anyone in his position makes is Rashaan Gary... A collapsing presence on the inside, and an overpowering force on the edge. Too athletic and versatile for a talented coach like Gruden to pass up. Your absolute best shot at replacing Khalil Mack. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 6. Giants - Rashan Gary - Defensive Line - Michigan Most people agree that the Giants need a Quarterback. That said Dave Gettleman ignored those cries last season and there are whispers that New York doesn’t have Dwayne Haskins at the top of their board. Therefore, with a second 1st rounder to come, I suspect the Giants will take the versatile Rashan Gary to replenish a defensive line that has lost Jason Pierre-Paul, Damon Harrison and Olivier Vernon over the past 12 months. I think NYG returns to the long-armed, lean, pure edge rushers of the past here.. Gary is long gone to OAK, so Montez Sweat goes to Big Blue. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 13. Dolphins - Cody Ford - Offensive Line - Oklahoma Miami is currently slated to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at Quarterback. It is hard to not think that the tank is on as the Dolphins look ahead to the 2020 Quarterback class. Therefore an offensive lineman to protect that eventual franchise signal caller makes sense and Cody Ford could either replace Ju’Wuan James at right tackle or start inside Laremy Tunsil as a left guard. Dumping Tan-man cleared the way. This years 1st, plus two more picks and a 1st next year. -Shocker of the draft! 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 20. Steelers - Greedy Williams - Cornerback - LSU Greedy Williams seems to have slipped down draft boards since the season ended but his tape still puts him in the conversation to be a top 10 pick. The only reason I can see him sliding is the number of teams ahead of this spot who will likely target offensive tackles and edge rushers. The Steelers have needed a #1 corner for a number of years. They drafted Artie Burns in the 1st round of the 2016 draft but he has been benched multiple times since the start of last season and they look ready to move on. PIT just needs too much to keep this pick... SELL!... They trade back, add picks, and wait for Rock Ya-Sin, a bigger more physical presence in that secondary. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 28. Chargers - Dalton Risner - Offensive Tackle - Kansas State The Los Angeles Chargers have a deep and strong roster in a number of areas but they need help on the offensive line. With a number of offensive linemen already off the board they could go in a different direction at this spot but Risner is also a nice fit here. He might be a little leaden footed to ever be more than a right tackle at the NFL level but he could start immediately on the right side. The past two drafts have found the Chargers loading up on offensive talent. Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney Scott Quessenbery… The move to acquire Tyrod was a sign. Everyone knows Rivers salty attitude in General. -Never mind towards rookies.... TT is an ideal groomer... He takes the edge off, and make it possible for Telesco to take Drew Lock as River's eventual replacement. Again, -great work Bill! Pardon the gratuitous speculation. Edited March 31, 2019 by #34fan
formerlyofCtown Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 Better than the so-called experts IMO. Not sure Broncos can get Lock at 32. NE may grab him themselves if he falls to 32. 1
GunnerBill Posted March 31, 2019 Author Posted March 31, 2019 1 minute ago, #34fan said: Excellent work... However, these are some things I can see happening. F what the Cards are hinting to the media outlets, this pick is for sale... If Kyler has been sold as the #1 player in this draft, -expect someone desperate for a change at QB to come up and get him. -Cards score a king's ransom with this ruse. I hope Gruden knows Better... The #1 Pick anyone in his position makes is Rashaan Gary... A collapsing presence on the inside, and an overpowering force on the edge. Too athletic and versatile for a talented coach like Gruden to pass up. Your absolute best shot at replacing Khalil Mack. I think NYG returns to the long-armed, lean, pure edge rushers of the past here.. Gary is long gone to OAK, so Montez Sweat goes to Big Blue. Dumping Tan-man cleared the way. This years 1st, plus two more picks and a 1st next year. -Shocker of the draft! PIT just needs too much to keep this pick... SELL!... They trade back, add picks, and wait for Rock Ya-Sin, a bigger more physical presence in that secondary. The past two drafts have found the Chargers loading up on offensive talent. Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney Scott Quessenbery… The move to acquire Tyrod was a sign. Everyone knows Rivers salty attitude in General. -Never mind towards rookies.... TT is an ideal groomer... He takes the edge off, and make it possible for Telesco to take Drew Lock As River's eventual replacement. Again, -great work Bill! Pardon the gratuitous speculation. Always enjoy your takes 34. Never afraid to stand out from the crowd. I like the Gary to Oakland logic. That certainly makes sense to me and I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. I just get the sense they love White (and he feels like such a Mike Mayock player). There will definitely be more trades than the two I predicted. People move around much more these days. I don't see Murray to the Dolphins though. I really think they are waiting for next year.
RyanC883 Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 Wow. Awesome work. A few thoughts: 1. I think the Cardinals have more around the QB then the media lets on. The QB still has Fitzgerald and Kirk at WR, along with Johnson at RB. Rosen simply couldn't get it done, and the "he has no talent around him" narrative was bizarrely created. 2. I think the Giants take a QB with one of the 1st two picks. I could see them skipping QB first, but with the 2nd 1st rounder I think they take Lock, or trade up to get the QB they want. 3. I do not see the Steelers taking a CB. In fact, I see the Steelers trading up to get one of the Devin LB's. They are in dire need of a MLB. If they can't get a Devin, then I see them trading back and taking Sing as another poster suggested. I love the idea of Oliver falling to the Bills. I hate the idea of Bosa or WIlliams ending up on the Jets!
GunnerBill Posted March 31, 2019 Author Posted March 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: Wow. Awesome work. A few thoughts: 1. I think the Cardinals have more around the QB then the media lets on. The QB still has Fitzgerald and Kirk at WR, along with Johnson at RB. Rosen simply couldn't get it done, and the "he has no talent around him" narrative was bizarrely created. 2. I think the Giants take a QB with one of the 1st two picks. I could see them skipping QB first, but with the 2nd 1st rounder I think they take Lock, or trade up to get the QB they want. 3. I do not see the Steelers taking a CB. In fact, I see the Steelers trading up to get one of the Devin LB's. They are in dire need of a MLB. If they can't get a Devin, then I see them trading back and taking Sing as another poster suggested. I love the idea of Oliver falling to the Bills. I hate the idea of Bosa or WIlliams ending up on the Jets! We don't agree on the Cards. Fitz is done. Kirk is very raw and they had no line at all to speak of. The Giants should take a QB but they should have last year too. I am starting to think Beane was always the brains behind the operation in Carolina because Gettleman's moves don't make sense. The Steelers 100% have a dire need at MLB. If either Devin is there they pick them but looking historically at the way they operate under Colbert they do not trade up in the first. They let the board come to them. It would just be out of character for them to trade up.
YoloinOhio Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, #34fan said: Excellent work... However, these are some things I can see happening. F what the Cards are hinting to the media outlets, this pick is for sale... If Kyler has been sold as the #1 player in this draft, -expect someone desperate for a change at QB to come up and get him. -Cards score a king's ransom with this ruse. I hope Gruden knows Better... The #1 Pick anyone in his position makes is Rashaan Gary... A collapsing presence on the inside, and an overpowering force on the edge. Too athletic and versatile for a talented coach like Gruden to pass up. Your absolute best shot at replacing Khalil Mack. I think NYG returns to the long-armed, lean, pure edge rushers of the past here.. Gary is long gone to OAK, so Montez Sweat goes to Big Blue. Dumping Tan-man cleared the way. This years 1st, plus two more picks and a 1st next year. -Shocker of the draft! PIT just needs too much to keep this pick... SELL!... They trade back, add picks, and wait for Rock Ya-Sin, a bigger more physical presence in that secondary. The past two drafts have found the Chargers loading up on offensive talent. Forrest Lamp, Dan Feeney Scott Quessenbery… The move to acquire Tyrod was a sign. Everyone knows Rivers salty attitude in General. -Never mind towards rookies.... TT is an ideal groomer... He takes the edge off, and make it possible for Telesco to take Drew Lock as River's eventual replacement. Again, -great work Bill! Pardon the gratuitous speculation. LAC is definitely taking a QB. Or trading for one. Not sure about the 1st though.
Sherlock Holmes Posted March 31, 2019 Posted March 31, 2019 How do you not trade up for Bosa if he's going to he Jets!!! Also Hock needs tp be traded up for by us... I'll be adamant between and draft for Bosa, Hockenson and Isabella
Patrick Duffy Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: How do you not trade up for Bosa if he's going to he Jets!!! Also Hock needs tp be traded up for by us... I'll be adamant between and draft for Bosa, Hockenson and Isabella Would be crazy if the Bills somehow managed to land Bosa/and or Allen, and also get Hock somehow. Of course one can dream. But Still think they probably end up with Oliver and who knows what happens after that. Edited April 1, 2019 by Patrick_Duffy 1 1
Codyny13 Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 I don’t see the Raiders not taking a pass rusher. They were inept last season in that department.
YoloinOhio Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) I think the Raiders will trade up for Bosa SF will take DK at 4 (Shanny Jr gets his Julio) Edited April 1, 2019 by YoloinOhio 1
billspro Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I think Hock at #10 is a bit of a reach. Mocks are about where I think players will be picked not where I would pick them or think they should be picked. I would be surprised if Oliver wasn’t drafted before us but it is definitely possible for the draft to play out that way. The Lions taking Sweat over Oliver seems like a bit of a stretch to me. If I had to guess I think the Bills are hoping for Oliver, Metcalf, or Taylor (in that order). Hockenson probably doesn’t have the elite athleticism of a top ten pick, but he checks every other box. Edited April 1, 2019 by billspro 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said: We don't agree on the Cards. Fitz is done. Kirk is very raw and they had no line at all to speak of. The Giants should take a QB but they should have last year too. I am starting to think Beane was always the brains behind the operation in Carolina because Gettleman's moves don't make sense. The Steelers 100% have a dire need at MLB. If either Devin is there they pick them but looking historically at the way they operate under Colbert they do not trade up in the first. They let the board come to them. It would just be out of character for them to trade up. Agree on all this Gunner. Fitz looks toast. He's a sure-handed #2/#3 at best now. Their line was a travesty last year. I also don't think david johnson is that great. Giants are a disaster. I really think Beane was the brains, I was talking about that with my NYG fan friend. He agrees completely. He's completely at a loss for what on Earth Gettleman is doing. They are a complete dumpster fire. Steelers definitely need a MLB. I agree with them trading up/lack of trading up. It's just not something they do.
LABILLBACKER Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 5 hours ago, TigerJ said: Oliver looks to me like the most likely pick of the Bills at this point as well. As we get closer this pick makes the most sense. Great player and probably BPA @ 9. Immediately replaces Kyle. Next year I can see our 1st round pick being a dynamic LB to replace Lorenzo.
SouthNYfan Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Patrick_Duffy said: Would be crazy if the Bills somehow managed to land Bosa/and or Allen, and also get Hock somehow. Of course one can dream. But Still think they probably end up with Oliver and who knows what happens after that. Who's gonna start digging up old tweets of Bosa/Allen/Hock on draft night? Not even sure that would help, even with some bombshells. ?? 1 1
MakeBuffaloGreatAgain Posted April 1, 2019 Posted April 1, 2019 Oliver, Hockensen, Ford, or Wilkins would be great with me at that piint
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