Tight End and Defensive Tackle Draft Depth

[Dkollidas]

I’ve heard Beane bring this up repeatedly. That both these positions are deep, as well as offensive line. Makes me think that they’re going to go for an edge rusher in the 1st Round as there isn’t much depth, plus Hughes & Lawson could both be gone next season and Murphy is always a health question. 

 

Even if they ended up signing a guy like Ansah, I see a defensive end as their main target. They might try to move down and get their guy, but they’ll go for one. 

 

The main three i see them being in the range for are Sweat, Burns & Ferrell.

 

Sweat to me seems like their type. 

1. Senior

2. Has put up solid numbers

3. Prototype body

4. No off-field issues

5. No “motor” questions

[VirginiaMike]

Not sure I am excited about an edge rusher, but I understand your logic.  I'd really like to see the Bills take the OT Taylor if he is available at 9.  I want to see a run stuffer somewhere in the early rounds.  the Bills have not been good against the run the past few years.

[MAJBobby]

Bills have done very well this offseason addressing Immediate Needs. Sets up taking the best available player in every round.  As opposed to needing to address a glaring hole. 

 

Get me the highest graded best football player with every pick. 

 

 

I have to give Beane props. For the first time in a long time the Bills have no glaring holes that can cause a reach to fill a position. 

Edited March 30, 2019 by MAJBobby

[JerseyBills]

Gotta add Lorax to the DE rotation but this could be his last year. He was a top 10 edge defender per PFF. Hughes was top 5. They were the only duo to be in the top 10 . I also could see Shaq much more at DT. I'd be happy with DE

[LSHMEAB]

49 minutes ago, VirginiaMike said:

Not sure I am excited about an edge rusher, but I understand your logic.  I'd really like to see the Bills take the OT Taylor if he is available at 9.  I want to see a run stuffer somewhere in the early rounds.  the Bills have not been good against the run the past few years.

With the Star signing and the drafting of Edmunds, a need for "run stuffers" would be a MASSIVE problem for Beane. 

 

They were middle of the pack against the run, but the only real defensive issue was getting to the QB. Thus the need for edge rushers. 

 

They allocated a TON of resources to Star/Edmunds, so if stopping the run is still a problem, then Beane and McDermott have a problem. I'm not too worried about it.

[1st&ten]

I wonder if Oliver is still there at 9, they might take him & use him both as a DT & a DE----supposedly he's very fast & quick.

 

[formerlyofCtown]

Or they trade up and grab the top guy on their board.

40 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Gotta add Lorax to the DE rotation but this could be his last year. He was a top 10 edge defender per PFF. Hughes was top 5. They were the only duo to be in the top 10 . I also could see Shaq much more at DT. I'd be happy with DE

Which should help ppl realise we need a penetraiting DT and an elite one so that those pressures turn into sacks and fumbles.

[machine gun kelly]

As much as I love Hockinson at TE, as he could be generational, it does make sense to take Taylor at 9, or trade down a few slots, then get Hockinson.  Either way, offense, offense, offense.

 

we can always trade up with 10 picks to get back in the first round to take one of the other two specialties you mentioned.  I read too much about volume, but wouldn’t you rather get 7 picks and move up a couple of better players.  Hardly anyone starts at the 5 th round or later.  Those are depth picks.  I know there are many exceptions so I understand, but the higher the pick, the greater the chance if picked well, we could get four day one starters, and maybe someone else before the end of the draft.

 

we’ve made a lot of solid decisions in free agency, and still have $33 mil after the draft based on SPOTRAC.  We can save some for next year, and make some decisions post draft as there will be talent out there.

[TigerJ]

Personally, I think defensive tackle is the most likely pick for the Bills, but defensive end is an alternate possibility, as is offensive tackle and maybe wide receiver.  I think there are competent starters at every position on the team now.  We couldn't say that in recent years.  Several positions have good depth as well: QB, CB, RB (needs youth), safety and even offensive line.  The two areas where it looks to me are the most lacking in depth are defensive line and linebacker.  McDermott likes to use a rotation on the defensive line.  Buffalo has 3 solid defensive tackles right now: Lotulelei, H. Phillips and J. Phillips.  Despite being the biggest of the bunch, Jordan Phillips is the only 3 tech.  Buffalo needs another solid 3 tech.  Ed Oliver would be a natural.  So would Quinnen Williams, but he'll be gone.  Christian Wilkins is the third 3 tech at the top of the first round.  He might be rated a bit lower than Oliver.  At edge, Buffalo has Jerry Hughes and at left defensive end they have Shaq Lawson, and Trent Murphy.  There are questions with all three of them Murphy - injury, Hughes - age, Lawson - productivity versus cost of a fifth year option.  The rest of the defensive linemen on the roster are place holders, fringe players who can fill in for a play here and there, but are can't be counted on to develop into starters.  I think defensive tackle is a bit more essential at this point because Buffalo has been very vulnerable to runs up the middle.  Wilkins and Oliver haven't wracked up huge sack totals on the inside, but the do get pressure and are disruptive, as well as having been effective run stoppers.  

 

If Buffalo does go with an edge rusher like Sweat, there are some defensive tackles they can get later.  Simmons and Tillery may be available when Buffalo pick inn the second round.  Simmons has the domestic violence issue dating from pre college, and Tillery may have some attitude issues.  Beane will need to do his due diligence on both, but they both have first round talent.

[TigerJ]

On 3/30/2019 at 4:49 PM, 1st&ten said:

I wonder if Oliver is still there at 9, they might take him & use him both as a DT & a DE----supposedly he's very fast & quick.

 

Oliver is defensive end fast with a 4.75 40 at his pro day.  Another player with freaky speed is Rashan Gary, who ran a 4.58 and is almost as heavy as Oliver.   Gary is also 3 inches taller.  Gary didn't have splashy stats at Michigan but there is lots of speculation that may have more to do with the way he was used than anything about his play.

[1st&ten]

15 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Oliver is defensive end fast with a 4.75 40 at his pro day.  Another player with freaky speed is Rashan Gary, who ran a 4.58 and is almost as heavy as Oliver.   Gary is also 3 inches taller.  Gary didn't have splashy stats at Michigan but there is lots of speculation that may have more to do with the way he was used than anything about his play.

 

Thanks for you input Tiger J---I do watch some college football but most of my knowledge is based on articles I read & I haven't had a lot of time to study this years college class. I have seen conflicting opinions on Gary some rating him very high & others labeling him an under achiever. I've seen some buzz about the kid from ND in the 2nd round. Who do you think is better Oliver or Gray ?

[TigerJ]

13 minutes ago, 1st&ten said:

 

Thanks for you input Tiger J---I do watch some college football but most of my knowledge is based on articles I read & I haven't had a lot of time to study this years college class. I have seen conflicting opinions on Gary some rating him very high & others labeling him an under achiever. I've seen some buzz about the kid from ND in the 2nd round. Who do you think is better Oliver or Gray ?

Please don't take me for an expert.  Most of what I know, or think I know is second hand as well.  I read anything I can get my hands on, and I have a good memory.  I would say Neither Oliver nor Gary is a sure thing.  Oliver is underweight, but his natural position is almost certainly defensive tackle.  There was also some question about his attitude stemming from from a sideline shouting match with his head coach.  I don't know that anyone but Oliver and his coach really know what that was about, though I'm sure anyone considering drafting him has done their level best to find out. 

 

You've read the same thing I have about Gary.  He might be one of the top two or three athletes in the draft, but he never showed up on the stat sheet in a big way.   There are different opinions as to why.   The best way to try and answer that question is tons of film work.  That's not something I have the opportunity to do, and I'm probably not qualified anyway.  Buffalo employs scouts who are qualified.  I'm sure if they have any interest in Gary, they have looked very closely.   I think Gary's natural position is probably defensive end, unlike Oliver.  Some suggest he could play outside on early downs and move to tackle as an interior pass rusher on third and long.  That makes some sense to me.  Depending on the coach and the defensive system those "tweener" characteristics can either be a challenge or an opportunity.  I think McDermott probably sees it as an opportunity.   

 

The kid from ND is, I assume, Jerry Tillery.  He's pretty impressive.  I think he's more of a pure defensive tackle, even though he's pretty tall.  He could, I think, also be a 3-4 defensive end, but that's not Buffalo's defensive system.  Actually he has better sack stats than Oliver or Quinnen Williams.  There was some buzz about Tillery's attitude.  Like Oliver, he allegedly had some rough moments with his coach.  If that checks out, I agree, he could be a really high value pick for the Bills in the second round.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I am in favor of BPA which odds seem to suggest will be a defender.  If so, I'd want them to get the guy that can make the biggest impact on 3rd down and red zone situations.  I'd like it if they had a choice between Oliver and Sweat (or some of the other edge players) and then we'd know which they preferred, because I am very curious about what their thinking would be and that's the only way to know.  The more QBs that make it to the top 10 the more likely it would be.  

[SoCal Deek]

Always cracks me up! Best Player Available?  In who’s mind? Do fans think they’re going to pick someone that they don’t think is the best player available?

[Sherlock Holmes]

Hockenson by trade down if not trade up for Bosa 1st which I think should also happen.

[1st&ten]

1 hour ago, TigerJ said:

Please don't take me for an expert.  Most of what I know, or think I know is second hand as well.  I read anything I can get my hands on, and I have a good memory.  I would say Neither Oliver nor Gary is a sure thing.  Oliver is underweight, but his natural position is almost certainly defensive tackle.  There was also some question about his attitude stemming from from a sideline shouting match with his head coach.  I don't know that anyone but Oliver and his coach really know what that was about, though I'm sure anyone considering drafting him has done their level best to find out. 

 

You've read the same thing I have about Gary.  He might be one of the top two or three athletes in the draft, but he never showed up on the stat sheet in a big way.   There are different opinions as to why.   The best way to try and answer that question is tons of film work.  That's not something I have the opportunity to do, and I'm probably not qualified anyway.  Buffalo employs scouts who are qualified.  I'm sure if they have any interest in Gary, they have looked very closely.   I think Gary's natural position is probably defensive end, unlike Oliver.  Some suggest he could play outside on early downs and move to tackle as an interior pass rusher on third and long.  That makes some sense to me.  Depending on the coach and the defensive system those "tweener" characteristics can either be a challenge or an opportunity.  I think McDermott probably sees it as an opportunity.   

 

The kid from ND is, I assume, Jerry Tillery.  He's pretty impressive.  I think he's more of a pure defensive tackle, even though he's pretty tall.  He could, I think, also be a 3-4 defensive end, but that's not Buffalo's defensive system.  Actually he has better sack stats than Oliver or Quinnen Williams.  There was some buzz about Tillery's attitude.  Like Oliver, he allegedly had some rough moments with his coach.  If that checks out, I agree, he could be a really high value pick for the Bills in the second round.

 

Thanks for taking the time to respond to my post----I know your not an expert---but this was good info for me.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

38 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Always cracks me up! Best Player Available?  In who’s mind? Do fans think they’re going to pick someone that they don’t think is the best player available?

 

Best player available vs position of need.  It is conceivable that a team may select a player who is not #1 on their board because a similarly rated player on their board fits a pressing need.  Teams do it all the time for QB’s.

[ColoradoBills]

You know I sometime think if the bills were picking #14 people would want to trade up to get a player at #9,

sometimes.

[GreggTX]

What I know is that a dominant DL hsd a big affect on the entire defense and the win column. If they go DE in round 1, so be it, but we need a stud to replace Kyle.

14 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

Best player available vs position of need.  It is conceivable that a team may select a player who is not #1 on their board because a similarly rated player on their board fits a pressing need.  Teams do it all the time for QB’s.

 

If the difference is small, yes. This is especially true later in the draft where the differences among a group of players is minimal or in higher rounds where the talent is about to take a noticeable drop at a position of need.

[Matt_In_NH]

You have to consider both sides of the ball at #9 because you cant pass on a hall of fame type talent to fill a need.  But Overall, there is pass rush talent on this team and holes elsewhere.  I would consider moving back if the opportunity arises.