SouthNYfan Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: Yes I'm suggesting the Bills put a rumor out about NYG wanting to trade up after they take a DL at #6 The points add up for the Seattle trade as I suggested. Maybe add a 6th or 7th to sweeten the deal a little. Jimmy Johnson value #21 (sea) = 800 #41 (den) = 490 #71 (den) = 235 That's 725 vs 800 Seattle isn't giving up the #21 pick for that.
buffaloboyinATL Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 So I just watched the 2017 TD highlight reel and out of all of his touchdowns, only 1 or 2 were really contested. He gets crazy separation and has soft hands, but that kind of separation is hard to find in the NFL.
MAJBobby Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said: Denver #10 and #71 Bills #9 and #158 Denver takes Lock Bills take Oliver at #10 Then they trade #40 and #71 to Seattle for # 20 and draft Fant Denver wants a QB and needs to stay ahead of Miami and NYG who will want Lock at #9 Seattle needs to trade out of the first round The points add up and still leaves the Bills with their 3rd round pick to use on a WR or Edge (doubt much value at OT in 3rd round) OR NYG #17 and #37 Bills #9 NYG takes Lock at #9 Bills take Fant at 17 then BPA 37 and 40 Ok first Trade I see. And like that idea to grab another top 100 pick and still get an elite talent Second I don’t.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 13, 2019 Author Posted April 13, 2019 7 hours ago, SouthNYfan said: Jimmy Johnson value #21 (sea) = 800 #41 (den) = 490 #71 (den) = 235 That's 725 vs 800 Seattle isn't giving up the #21 pick for that. Seattle moved down 9 spots in 2018 and picked up a 3rd and swapped 6th and 7thr round picks. For dropping 20 spots in my scenario they pick up a second and a third that is 6 spots higher than the 2018 third round pick from the Packers. You are probably correct the Bills would need to throw in a 6th this year or maybe a 4th in 2020.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 13, 2019 Author Posted April 13, 2019 6 hours ago, MAJBobby said: Ok first Trade I see. And like that idea to grab another top 100 pick and still get an elite talent Second I don’t. I wonder if anyone accurately predicts trades. So many variables based on players already gone. It takes two and probably a special circumstance for Bills to pass on an elite DL at #9. But Denver, Miami, Washington, and NYG all have QB needs. Could make it interesting. If Murray doesn't go #1, the top 10 will be nuts with possible trade down scenarios for every team with the depth at DL this year.
SouthNYfan Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said: Seattle moved down 9 spots in 2018 and picked up a 3rd and swapped 6th and 7thr round picks. For dropping 20 spots in my scenario they pick up a second and a third that is 6 spots higher than the 2018 third round pick from the Packers. You are probably correct the Bills would need to throw in a 6th this year or maybe a 4th in 2020. It's not about how many spots they moved, it's about the tier that they moved to Picks "value points" aren't linear The gap from pick to pick widens the closer to the top of the draft you are Anyway these are guidelines It's like (making up numbers) they aren't going to take a 4th, 5th, and two 6th for a late first even if the "points" align
#34fan Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 I ike Fant, but he's been known to drop 'em from time to time.... Can't have that in the first... 2nd... Maybe even 3rd round. TJ Hockenson: - 2 drops on 75 catchable passes. - 7 contested catches. - 8 broken tackles. Noah Fant: - 13 drops on 91 catchable passes. - 4 contested catches. - 3 broken tackles. 1
Cripple Creek Posted April 13, 2019 Posted April 13, 2019 On 3/29/2019 at 11:45 AM, Ethan in Portland said: I don't believe the Bills have ever had an athletically superior tight end. I would see Fant as great complement to Kroft (who I don't think much of at all) and Fisher(assuming he even makes the roster). Bills TE play has been so underwhelming for decades if not the entire history of the franchise. Hockenson is probably a better talent than Kroft but the skill set is too similar and the explosiveness is not the same as Fant. I would like to see Beane drop down a few spots maybe even with more than one trade and take Fant around 15 -18. I think he could create mismatches all over the field. For the record, I think the best chance to trade down is if there is an early run on QBs and Miami or Denver gets nervous they will be shut out. That said, if there is an early run on QBs I see the Bills staying at 9 and taking an elite defender. If he is so much a difference maker why must he be traded down for? It's apparent that you have nowledge that NFL teams do not and I'm interested in finding out more about it. 1
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 14, 2019 Author Posted April 14, 2019 6 hours ago, SouthNYfan said: It's not about how many spots they moved, it's about the tier that they moved to Picks "value points" aren't linear The gap from pick to pick widens the closer to the top of the draft you are Anyway these are guidelines It's like (making up numbers) they aren't going to take a 4th, 5th, and two 6th for a late first even if the "points" align Agree. But it is also multiple picks for one late first rounder. The success rate between pick 20 and pick 40 can not be much if any.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 14, 2019 Author Posted April 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Cripple Creek said: If he is so much a difference maker why must he be traded down for? It's apparent that you have nowledge that NFL teams do not and I'm interested in finding out more about it. He doesn’t but historically TEs just aren't taken that high. And in this draft the better value will be DL at 9. Now that could change if some crazy stuff happens like the Cards passing on Murray and Tampa not taking a LB. There could be a huge run on DL/edge players in the first 8 picks. If that happens Fant, Metcalf, or an OT may be BPA that is not a QB. That is when you put the 9th pick up for auction and see what happens. If no-one bites take Fant and pencil in 7 TDs
SouthNYfan Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said: Agree. But it is also multiple picks for one late first rounder. The success rate between pick 20 and pick 40 can not be much if any. Not sure I'd have to try and look into that success rate #20 is probably higher by a bit though
NewEra Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 16 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said: I wonder if anyone accurately predicts trades. So many variables based on players already gone. It takes two and probably a special circumstance for Bills to pass on an elite DL at #9. But Denver, Miami, Washington, and NYG all have QB needs. Could make it interesting. If Murray doesn't go #1, the top 10 will be nuts with possible trade down scenarios for every team with the depth at DL this year. Which “elite pass rusher” would we be passing on? Ed Oliver? He’s the only guy other than Bosa, Allen’s and Q Williams that I’d regard as (potentially) elite. Montez Sweat? I dunno if I’d call him elite. Gary? Hell no. Burns? Possibly, I’m just not sure if he’ll hold up at DE. Wilkins? Not elite imo. The elite guys will be gone by the time we pick, unless Oliver is there. While his explosion is elite, he hasn’t shown that he’s elite on the football field. If the right offer comes around im confidant that Beane would pull the trigger
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