Josh Allen vs Carson Wentz - Rookie Season

[SoTier]

Arguing over which stats, especially rookie stats, are "important" indicators of future performance is simply silly.  All that really matters is whether Allen improves his passing game, both his mechanics and his decision making, as he gains experience.  As a rookie, he wasn't very good as an NFL QB.  Neither was Wentz.  Wentz significantly improved in his second year.  He had more modest improvement in his third year as a starter, but whether that means he's reached his plateau -- as all QBs do at some point -- remains to be seen.  

 

If Allen improves his game as a sophomore, then he's still on a trajectory to be a franchise QB.  If he only improves somewhat but then stalls, that will be cause for serious concern.   Sometimes, as Wentz shows, injuries and team issues may limit a QB's development, but it usually takes a young QB two or three seasons (including being the #1 QB in training camp) to realize his potential.

 

Allen's rookie stats are largely irrelevant now that he's coming into his second year.  He's not competing against only the other 2018 QBs or just against other recently drafted first round QBs.  He's competing against all the QBs in the NFL, including Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Wilson et al, and the reason why those QBs are considered "great" is how important they've been -- and are -- to their teams' ability to win lots of football games.   How Allen's play translates into Bills' wins in the future is what will determine if he's considered a bust, a disappointment or a success, not arguing over rookie stats or the relevance of this particular stat over that one as some kind of predictor of future success. 

[Ronin]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with much of this, but disagree with where you come out on Allen.   

 

You're absolutely right about the short and medium range game.  And when you asked people to name one franchise QB who isn't good at it, someone said Cam Newton.   Cam Newton is, in my opinion, a failure.   He hasn't won anything, and he accomplishes very little in the passing game.  You're right about Allen running - he can run all day, but his team will win consistently only if he becomes a successful thrower.  

 

Where I disagree is where you say or imply that Allen has some major problems to solve.  I don't think he does; I just think he has to change the way he plays.   He wasn't bad at throwing short balls (yes, he had some misses, more than he should); he was bad at deciding to throw short.   He regularly took the deep option.   That's why he led the league in air yards, and by a lot.   11 yards per throw, average, 50% higher than the league average.  The Bills have been clear that they want him to take the shorter, easier throws.  That's not a mechanical problem to fix; that's just getting him to understand what succeeds in the league.  I don't think that's a tall order, as you call it.   I think it's about getting him focused.   He's smart, he's coachable, he wants to win.   I think we will see a big change in him this season.  

 

I also agree with you that it's about Allen, not about what's around him.  I mean, I'm definitely in the camp that he needs a better offensive line, but success for players in the NFL is about the player plays, not about the guys around him. 

 

Good post Shaw, thanks for some intelligent discussion.  

 

I didn't read most of the other posts, most offer absolutely no evidence of anything except for conjecture, exceptions, and view the entire matter as none of any of the current passing set-up falling onto Allen himself, so I can't comment on those.  

 

As to Newton, for sure he's not a franchise QB.  After that, whether he's a "failure" or not is in the eyes of the beholder.  As a franchise QB he's a failure.  Is he a failure otherwise?  I guess that  would  depend upon the definition of failure.  But what you said about him is true.  Implied is that he's an average passer at best.  Fact is that he's posted one above-average passing season, the rest are mediocre, tops collectively.  In 7 other seasons he's posted an average number of passing TDs about half the time and a below-average number half the time.  For some reason Allen supporters love to cite Newton in comparison, presumably because of his rushing production, which if anything should be a clear indicator that rushing production from a QB has a limited value.    

 

If you want rushing get a RB.  I mean isn't that what RBs are for?  If you have a good RB then why the need or benefit of having your QB rush to the tune of 700 +/- yards/season.  Makes no sense.  Rushing wasn't a problem for us in '17.

 

Either way, as you say, and despite all of that rushing production, "he hasn't won anything" and "he accomplishes very little in the passing game," which is obviously where things are in the NFL these days, the passing game.  Defense no longer wins championships, passing does particularly and offense generally.  ... except in a drone exception of a game in which a novice QB choked and an aging QB wasn't as good as he's been.  

 

The fact remains however that in college Newton was a much more polished passer than Allen's ever been.  He’ll likely never become a successful thrower at this point tho.  He may post another above-averge season or two, but there's no reason to expect much else than what he's done.  So however that translates ... 

 

As to the OL that you brought up, many here likes to arbitrarily blame everything but Allen, tops among which is the pass-pro OL, but the reality is that we did not have the worst pass-pro OL last season.  As has been pointed out, Allen had more time-to-throw according to NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats than any other QB, and by a statistical country mile.  Granted, some of that hinged on his ability as a scrambler, but we also can not then turn around and suggest that on average he bought himself the kind of time that’s the difference between being first and last in that ranking.  Any rational person would agree with that. 

 

Also, while the OL was far from good, and I’m one of its biggest critics, according to PFF at the end of the season they ranked 27^th with the following teams behind them: 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17

 

Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, the Chargers, Miami, & Minnesota. 

 

Yet, every one of those QBs played better on average passing than Allen did with the exception of Rosen who played similarly in the passing department.  Everyone’s all over him BTW already pre-annointing him a bust as one of the highly touted pre-Draft rookies last season, FWIW. 

 

Even Carr, Tannehill, and Driskel, a former 6^th-round pick who hadn’t played a single snap played better on average.  Cousins, despite taking heat pitched 30 TDs to half as many INTs and put up above-average numbers.  We’d expect Rivers and Dalton to play much better despite the fact that Dalton’s no franchise QB either. 

 

So while yes, he does need a better OL, given his scrambling ability, the fact that lesser mobile QBs that aren’t very good otherwise, Tannehill & Driskel in particular the latter, played better behind worse (or at least comparable) OLs, is definitely something that’s worthy of consideration in a full assessment of the situation. 

 

The thing that I really found interesting and want to discuss is what you said here;

 

Where I disagree is where you say or imply that Allen has some major problems to solve.  I don't think he does; I just think he has to change the way he plays.   He wasn't bad at throwing short balls (yes, he had some misses, more than he should); he was bad at deciding to throw short.   He regularly took the deep option.   That's why he led the league in air yards, and by a lot.   11 yards per throw, average, 50% higher than the league average.  The Bills have been clear that they want him to take the shorter, easier throws.  That's not a mechanical problem to fix; that's just getting him to understand what succeeds in the league.  I don't think that's a tall order, as you call it.   I think it's about getting him focused.   He's smart, he's coachable, he wants to win.   I think we will see a big change in him this season.  

 

You’re right, he wasn’t “bad” at throwing short balls.  He was bad at choosing to throw short.  But that’s been the knock on him since at Wyoming.  In fact, here’s what Derrik Klassen of Football Outsiders said pre-Draft about Allen, which IMO is spot-on;

 

The conundrum with Allen is that these flashes -- the moments of pure brilliance -- come so few and far between. Allen dazzles once or twice a game with a play that feels impossible, only to look like a late-round pick for the remainder of his appearance.

 

It’s a great piece and the best I read on Allen.  But that's a huge part of his problem, he constantly look to make those types of plays, which is tantamount to trying to sprint to victory in a marathon when the obvious strategy is a consistent steady pace, the QB equivalent of a great short-medium game.  

 

I think that it’s a taller order than you suggest, which appears to be the crux of our disagreement here.  As you said, it’s not necessarily the mechanics of Allen’s short throws that are problematic, at least not to that extent given that he could definitely polish those.  What the core problem is, is recognizing that there is a receiver, RB, TE, WR being irrelevant, open in the flats, on the wings, OTM short, etc., whereby if he passed to them the play might gain 15, 20, or 30 yards, … hell, even 7 is typically great.  This is why the Beasley signing will be mitigated in terms of potential effectiveness.  

 

But while we’re staring at the TV seeing it, he clearly doesn’t, and if you follow his head, he locks onto his primary target and typically goes with that throw, hence his low completion % and high number of INT rate, 2^nd in the league and second only to Fitzpatrick, but wit Fitz having well over twice the TD rate. 

 

So the issue is this, and you brought up a fantastic point particularly, that they need to get into his head and convince him to do what he has not been doing, ever.  Years of patterned/programmed behavior must be altered.  As a case-in-point, we tried that with Bledsoe, remember?  Remember the timers and buzzers and all that nonsense to attempt to get him to throw more quickly?  Did it work?  No, not even remotely.  Bledsoe was a seasoned passer who also wasn’t good at reading Ds, but he was substantially better than Allen at it. 

 

So whether or not that’s easy to correct is debatable I suppose, it’s difficult if not impossible to find data on such things, but the reality is that coaching can only do so much.   But for a QB that’s used to doing that and relying on his athleticism and arm-strength, surely McBeane knew what they were up against when the drafted him.  This is why many, including myself, stated that if he was to become a franchise QB it was going to be  project.  Unfortunately, McBeane's careers hinge upon Allen's success, directly and likely exclusively.  They won't have five or six seasons to see the project thru.  

 

I posted this in another post to someone criticizing on that merit but who didn’t bother to answer the question, but I’ll pose it again, verbatim as I had it. 

 

Allen's either going to correct himself or he isn't.  I'd love for Allen to work out, but I have yet to see a QB that lacks a short-medium prowess to such an extent correct it in the NFL to the extent that they become a franchise QB.  It's a tall order. 

 

Can you name one?  

 

That question is open for anyone to answer.  Problem is that there is no answer.  I’m not a fan, at all, of having to forge historically “new territory” in order for stated goals to occur.  Why there isn't an answer is telling.  

 

Also, consider what you said about him preferring to go deep, which is no secret.  He did that, and with reasonable success as you implied.  Yet, what did it net us?  Not much in terms of wins.  I point this out because any seasoned football analyst fully understands that deep-balls are a very minor aspect of a franchise QB’s game, a nicety but hardly a requisite.  There are so few deep ball TDs on any given team that they aren’t significant in terms of winning regularly enough to qualify a team as being playoff competitive on that merit alone.  Not even close. 

 

We won all of our games on the merits of defense, and against teams none of which were playoff teams and all teams ranking 19th or worse, most much worse, than 19th in scoring.  We held five of those six teams to 17 or fewer, the other, Jax, to 21, all below-average scoring.  The only game in which it could be reasonably argued that Allen contributed with his "deep game" was Jax and that long throw to Foster where the FS botched the coverage leaving Foster open.  Otherwise the deepest in those five other wins, and besides the fact that three of the six total were in the two Miami games, was 26 yards.  

 

Case in point, pick any franchise QB and look at their TD pass distances.  Let’s take a historically prolific one from this past season, Mahomes.  He’s got arm strength too, maybe not as good as Allen’s, but very good.  How many of his TDs were deep?  

 

He had probably more than any QB, percentage-wise, yet he only had 9 of 50, 18%, more than 30 yards.  And that includes YAC rendering that number notably lower, particularly given that they had Hill.  I didn’t look at the spot of catch for all 9 but obviously all weren't deep throws.  

 

Here’s the thing tho, of his 50, 35, 70%, were from within the Red Zone.  The rest were total yards in the 20’s.  Franchise QBs absolutely have to be proficient in the Red Zone, and Allen was bottom-dwelling in the RZ last season.  We cannot blame that on him “looking deep,” right, since “deep” doesn’t exist in the RZ, or frankly, even much into opponent territory, let’s say within the 30 anyway.  Right? 

 

Here’s another data point that the forum isn’t going to like, … they don’t like data that conflicts with the sunshine/unicorns/lollipops narratives and superficial data that starts threads, but Kizer last season was more efficient in the Red Zone than Allen was this season, both as rookies, both on teams that no one can say Cleveland had more weapons/tools for Kizer. 

 

I won’t dwell on the fact that of Allen’s 4 RZ TDs, three were against Miami, two of the four being in that last game essentially doubling his RZ “efficiency” in that single game alone. 

 

Allen had 4 RZ TDs and 5 1^st-downs in 26 passes.  Rates of 15.4%, 19.2%, and 34.5% total between the two. 

Kizer had 8 RZ TDs and 8 1^st-downs in 40 passes.  Rates of 20.0%, 20.0%, and 40.0% total. 

 

Kizer also only took 2 sacks in 42 dropbacks (4.8%) contrasted with Allen’s 3 in 29.  (10.3%)  Those are indicative of something.  What it is can be discussed, but it is relevant, particularly when connected to all the other stuff. 

 

Kizer had a “big arm” too, one that “could make all the throws.”  Here’s his weaknesses from his draft profile tho, ask yourself how many of the same flaws Allen possesses, I’ll highlight the ones that I see. 

 

WEAKNESSES

 Gets stuck on primary read missing out on early openers around field. May not have eyes or compact release to spot and hit flashing targets. Can be too reliant upon arm strength over mechanics. Wants open throwing window rather than operating with early anticipation. Can improve in leading receivers and throwing stationary targets open. Too hesitant. Gets caught in pump fake vortex at times. Quick to drop his eyes and halt progressions when pocket warms up. Inconsistent decision-maker. Showed dreadful lapses in judgement that lead to interceptions. Too willing to make off-balanced heaves. Benched against Stanford. Had at least one interception in 15 of his 23 starts. Will take a sack despite having ample time to read and throw.

 

As a secondary point-of-note, Allen’s INT% was not significantly lower than Kizer’s.  Kizer’s was at 4.6%, DFL last season. 

Allen’s was 3.8% this season, 2^nd-to-DFL behind only the aforementioned Fitzpatrick. 

In 2017 only two other qualifying QBs had a rate of 3.8% or worse;  Brett Hundley and Trevor Simean, former 5^th and 7^th round picks. 

 

That’s all very relevant, particularly when we note that Allen nearly had a bunch more INTs that were dropped by defenders.  

 

So, to sum up, this has almost nothing to do with whether Allen’s capable of throwing a 9 yard-pass to a RB or a 14-yard in-the-air pass to another player in the flat, rather, it has everything to do with reading Ds, seeing where the yards on a given play are going to come from, denying the instinct to “go deep” or scramble while attempting to make the big play deep.  Again, we've seen him make those short throws, what we haven't seen him do is scan the entire field looking for where he's going to get the most yards, not even close.  

 

It’s all about discipline and settling down and doing what Allen’s never done before.  That’s a tall order.  Is it possible?  Sure, it’s also possible that Kizer or Rosen revive their careers and become franchise QBs.  Lots of things are possible.  It’s possible that Gore and Shady both rush for 1,000 yards on 5.0 ypc this season.  None of that is likely, including Allen changing all of that quickly.  Again, remember Bledsoe and how they couldn’t get him to correct one simple little thing, namely getting rid of the ball. 

 

So we’ll see.  I’m not optimistic.  Of course like everyone else I’d love for it to happen, believe me.  It’s a whole lotta things to correct.  But here’s the thing, is getting deep-WRs like Brown going to help?  … apart from the fact that IMO Brown’s massively overrated.  What I see is the staff catering to Allen’s deep-arm.  Is that the solution? 

 

Seems to me that the solution would be to immerse him in what the problem is and force him to correct it.  It’s like an addict, which is what he is, he’s addicted to the deep ball, as long as that temptation is there, I don’t see him significantly changing his ways.  If they're smart they'll grab a couple of OTs in rounds 1 & 2 of the draft in order to give Allen every opportunity to have plenty of time to think a little bit, which he's going to need, more so than any other QB, if he's going to improve in that way.  

 

Either way, if it is going to be corrected they’re going to have to get into his head and try to do similar things that the then coaching staff attempted to do with Bledsoe yet were unable to do.  In terms of identifying the odds of it happening, I will continue to defer to the historical fact, at least in the modern realm of the NFL’s passing era, that no QB that came into the NFL with significant flaws and shortcomings in the short-medium game as such ever went on to become a franchise QB.  If Allen does that he’ll be the first.  If the staff can correct that, they’ll be the first. 

 

You think that’s likely?  I don’t.  Whether or not we’d like for it to happen doesn’t make one bit of difference.  Of course we all would. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

I want to reply to Logic, SoTier and Ghost.  I won't quote you, but I thank you each for your thoughtful posts about Allen (seems we've left Wentz by the wayside, which is fine with me).

 

Tier, I think you miss the point about stats.  What you say is correct - the bottom line is that Allen has to be better than he was last season or the Bills haven't solved their fundamental problem. Absolutely true.  The point you miss is that the stats are a measure of how much he has to improve.   In terms of the passer rating, he has to go from the high 60s to the mid 90s.  If his passer rating goes to 85 and stalls, we have Ryan Fitzpatrick.   All the best QBs are regularly in the mid 90s or above.   

 

Your point, I guess, is that the stats in and of themselves are irrelevant.  That's true, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful measures of how a QB is doing.  

 

Logic - I like what you say until you get to your belief that Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy.   And this dovetails with what Ghost says about whether it's a tall order for Allen to change.  I don't think Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy.   I think he will learn this year to play the short, high percentage passing game, and he will play it.   In short, he will learn to make the right decisions.  I think he will learn it easily, and that's why I think Ghost's pessimism is misplaced.   

 

Why do I think that?   Because I believe in the process.   "Oh, no," you say.   "Here he goes with this process crap."  Well, folks, the process is real.   McBeane didn't take Allen because he has a cannon.  They didn't take him because he can run.   They took him because he satisfies, in spades, their culture and character models.   He is an intense competitor.   He is a team guy.  He is willing to work at his craft 365 days a year.  And he has the minimum physical requirements - he meets their MINIMUM requirements for size, speed, arm strength and intelligence.   Now, in fact, he's way, way OVER the minimum in those categories, but that's not why they took him.  They took him because he has the right character traits. 

 

My point is that Allen is not a stubborn "I'm doing it my way" guy.   He's a guy who when the coaches tell him that the way to win is to have a high completion percentage, he says "Okay, tell me how to get a high completion percentage."   I think he's already gotten the message, he's working on it, and I think we're going to see him throwing a lot more short balls this season.   I don't think it's a tall order. 

 

I'll give you one example of why I think this will be easy for him.  It's an example where he made, in football terms, the wrong decision, but it's an example of how much his brain is engaged when he's on the field.  The play I have in mind is his completion to Kyle Williams in the flat against Miami.   After the game, someone asked him if he realized the Dolphins had some coverage breakdown and our tight end was running straight up the field, uncovered.  Allen said something like "there was no way on that play I was throwing the ball to anyone else but Kyle."   Now, before you jump on that saying, "see, he locked onto one receiver," wait.  I think it's evidence of how much Allen plays in the moment.   ON THE FIELD, he was thinking about what he had to do.   He was in control of himself.   This is the guy who supposedly likes to bomb away deep every chance he gets; he had the perfect chance, and he ignored it, because he knew there was something more important than what he'd LIKE to do.  

 

Allen wants to win, he's a team guy, and he's smart.  When his coaches tell him that the way to win is to throw passes based on how likely it is they'll be completed instead of how many yards might be gained, he'll say "okay, I can do that.   I can give it to Shady in the flat all day.  I can find Beasley open where's he's supposed to be.  I can do that."   I think we all will see that change this year.  

 

Frankly, I think the coaches will show him film of the Patriots.  They will show him the decisions Brady makes - they will show him that Brady takes the deeper throws only when he has a guy, like a Hogan, who's wide open.   (One exception is Brady will throw to Gronk when he's covered.)  They will tell Allen that Brady WINS by doing this.  Allen will say, "okay, but if my deep guy is open, can I thought it there?"   His coaches will say "certainly, unless it's third down and you have a guy open short for the first down, because if both receivers are open, the short ball is easier, and the first down is more important than the bomb."

 

Allen is smart and competitive.  That stuff isn't going to be hard for him to learn and incorporate into his game.  

[BringBackFlutie]

13 hours ago, Logic said:

The main thing is that I don't think he'll ever be a Brees or a Brady, slowly matriculating the ball down the field on a regular basis. Even if/when he learns to take the gimmes and checkdowns, I think he'll always be a "No no no.........YES!!!" guy. To some extent, I think we'll always have to live with the extreme highs and the head scratching lows with Allen. I think watching him will be a lot like watching Brett Favre: Amazing plays that only he could make and memorable moments galore, but also a bunch of frustrating interceptions and questionable decisions. Me, personally? I'll take the tradeoff. No risk it, no biscuit.

 

Eh... I think he's always gonna have a bit of a gunslinger mentality- perhaps closer to Favre's than most, but I think Allen is smarter and can become more refined.  I don't think he'll throw as many picks as Favre, and I think he'll use his mobility a lot to find more open guys and make less questionable throws.  I'd say, from a playing style (not necessarily success) standpoint, Allen will be like Aaron Rodgers/Steve Young, in mobility and making opportunities, with a high tendency towards Favre, in aggression.  Basically, I think calling him a Favre or a Brady/Brees, is too one dimensional.  I think he'll have a very diverse style of play, due to his diverse skill set and intelligence. And the aforementioned comparisons are only what we can see about him today.  I don't think we've seen half of what he can/will be.  I think he's still got a LOT of molding to do.  He's very young and inexperienced.  A coach can, essentially, take his skill set and make him whatever they want.

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah... I'm overly positive about him.

Edited March 28, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Also, while the OL was far from good, and I’m one of its biggest critics, according to PFF at the end of the season they ranked 27^th with the following teams behind them: 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17

 

Cincinnati, Oakland, Minnesota, the Chargers, Miami, & Minnesota. 

 

Yet, every one of those QBs played better on average passing than Allen did with the exception of Rosen who played similarly in the passing department.  Everyone’s all over him BTW already pre-annointing him a bust as one of the highly touted pre-Draft rookies last season, FWIW. 

 

 

 

Any list of offensive lines that doesn't have Buffalo, Arizona, and Houston in the bottom 3 is a questionable one imo.

[JESSEFEFFER]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Any list of offensive lines that doesn't have Buffalo, Arizona, and Houston in the bottom 3 is a questionable one imo.

 

I don't know what methodology any of them utilize but if they think that  "average time to throw" is a metric of o-line blocking efficiency (and some do) then they did not actually watch any 2018 Bills games.

[BringBackFlutie]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I want to reply to Logic, SoTier and Ghost.  I won't quote you, but I thank you each for your thoughtful posts about Allen (seems we've left Wentz by the wayside, which is fine with me).

 

Tier, I think you miss the point about stats.  What you say is correct - the bottom line is that Allen has to be better than he was last season or the Bills haven't solved their fundamental problem. Absolutely true.  The point you miss is that the stats are a measure of how much he has to improve.   In terms of the passer rating, he has to go from the high 60s to the mid 90s.  If his passer rating goes to 85 and stalls, we have Ryan Fitzpatrick.   All the best QBs are regularly in the mid 90s or above.   

 

Your point, I guess, is that the stats in and of themselves are irrelevant.  That's true, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful measures of how a QB is doing.  

 

Logic - I like what you say until you get to your belief that Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy.   And this dovetails with what Ghost says about whether it's a tall order for Allen to change.  I don't think Allen will always be a "no, no, no - YES!!!" guy.   I think he will learn this year to play the short, high percentage passing game, and he will play it.   In short, he will learn to make the right decisions.  I think he will learn it easily, and that's why I think Ghost's pessimism is misplaced.   

 

Why do I think that?   Because I believe in the process.   "Oh, no," you say.   "Here he goes with this process crap."  Well, folks, the process is real.   McBeane didn't take Allen because he has a cannon.  They didn't take him because he can run.   They took him because he satisfies, in spades, their culture and character models.   He is an intense competitor.   He is a team guy.  He is willing to work at his craft 365 days a year.  And he has the minimum physical requirements - he meets their MINIMUM requirements for size, speed, arm strength and intelligence.   Now, in fact, he's way, way OVER the minimum in those categories, but that's not why they took him.  They took him because he has the right character traits. 

 

My point is that Allen is not a stubborn "I'm doing it my way" guy.   He's a guy who when the coaches tell him that the way to win is to have a high completion percentage, he says "Okay, tell me how to get a high completion percentage."   I think he's already gotten the message, he's working on it, and I think we're going to see him throwing a lot more short balls this season.   I don't think it's a tall order. 

 

I'll give you one example of why I think this will be easy for him.  It's an example where he made, in football terms, the wrong decision, but it's an example of how much his brain is engaged when he's on the field.  The play I have in mind is his completion to Kyle Williams in the flat against Miami.   After the game, someone asked him if he realized the Dolphins had some coverage breakdown and our tight end was running straight up the field, uncovered.  Allen said something like "there was no way on that play I was throwing the ball to anyone else but Kyle."   Now, before you jump on that saying, "see, he locked onto one receiver," wait.  I think it's evidence of how much Allen plays in the moment.   ON THE FIELD, he was thinking about what he had to do.   He was in control of himself.   This is the guy who supposedly likes to bomb away deep every chance he gets; he had the perfect chance, and he ignored it, because he knew there was something more important than what he'd LIKE to do.  

 

Allen wants to win, he's a team guy, and he's smart.  When his coaches tell him that the way to win is to throw passes based on how likely it is they'll be completed instead of how many yards might be gained, he'll say "okay, I can do that.   I can give it to Shady in the flat all day.  I can find Beasley open where's he's supposed to be.  I can do that."   I think we all will see that change this year.  

 

Frankly, I think the coaches will show him film of the Patriots.  They will show him the decisions Brady makes - they will show him that Brady takes the deeper throws only when he has a guy, like a Hogan, who's wide open.   (One exception is Brady will throw to Gronk when he's covered.)  They will tell Allen that Brady WINS by doing this.  Allen will say, "okay, but if my deep guy is open, can I thought it there?"   His coaches will say "certainly, unless it's third down and you have a guy open short for the first down, because if both receivers are open, the short ball is easier, and the first down is more important than the bomb."

 

Allen is smart and competitive.  That stuff isn't going to be hard for him to learn and incorporate into his game.  

I agree with all of this, Shaw.  It's the same as my feelings- it's a lot harder to take a guy who can make all the throws and refuses to make the easy ones take them, than to get a guy who can only make the easy throws and hope he'll learn how to take the harder ones.  Your narration of the situation is a good example of that difference in difficulty.

 

...But I think the the difference in skill sets between Brady and Allen should be reconciled in Allen's play.  While Allen can probably say, "yeah, I can take those throws, why not?" he also has the ability to make 30 yard frozen rope throws that thread the needle on a deep crosser and/or can open a receiver.  While you don't want him always doing this, he has skills that you want him to utilize at the right times. 

 

Brady is a great QB and it's silly to think Allen could "easily" do what he does- I get it.  But for sake of argument, let's assume he can.  Now, in that context, would you take the guy that does all the things Brady does, or would you take a guy that does all those things, and then, on the play Brady has to throw it away, this guy completes a 30 yard pass that's open because he has the arm strength to make it so?

Edited March 28, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[Ronin]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Any list of offensive lines that doesn't have Buffalo, Arizona, and Houston in the bottom 3 is a questionable one imo.

 

Take it up with PFF.  

 

I'm sure that you'll have no difficulty accepting what they say that's positive about us without exception tho, right.  Just sayin' .  

 

Otherwise, OK, Watson seems to have done well then, and his rookie numbers last season, presumably with a similar OL, were head-and-shoulders above Allen. 

 

Your point was?  What, simply to argue PFF's OL rankings?  Again, take it up with them.  You can find ones you like and run the same comparison.  The point remains unchanged.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Take it up with PFF.  

 

I'm sure that you'll have no difficulty accepting what they say that's positive about us without exception tho, right.  Just sayin' .  

 

Otherwise, OK, Watson seems to have done well then, and his rookie numbers last season, presumably with a similar OL, were head-and-shoulders above Allen. 

 

Your point was?  What, simply to argue PFF's OL rankings?  Again, take it up with them.  You can find ones you like and run the same comparison.  The point remains unchanged.  

 

I'm saying you're using questionable methodology to back up your argument.

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

I'm saying you're using questionable methodology to back up your argument.

 

Be more specific?  You're only citing the source for OL evaluation?  

 

You clearly stated that houston's was among the few worst.  I used your standard to make the same point.  

 

So what's the problem now?  Do you want to keep picking teams until you find one for which the argument can't be made?  ...  or what?  That'd be a tough one too.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Be more specific?  You're only citing the source for OL evaluation?  

 

You clearly stated that houston's was among the few worst.  I used your standard to make the same point.  

 

So what's the problem now?  Do you want to keep picking teams until you find one for which the argument can't be made?  ...  or what?  That'd be a tough one too.  

 

No. YOU are the one trying to use offensive line quality as some predictor of quarterback performance. I simply pointed out that your ranking of offensive lines was flawed.

 

The whole point of every post I've made in this thread, if you go back and read them, is that you can't use any one specific statistic as a reliable indicator of how 'good' your quarterback is. Houston, to take your example, has a very poor offensive line and probably the best 1/2 wideout tandem in the league. Do those factors, as well as a myriad of others, contribute to Watson's ability to perform at QB...of course they do. 

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

I agree with all of this, Shaw.  It's the same as my feelings- it's a lot harder to take a guy who can make all the throws and refuses to make the easy ones take them, than to get a guy who can only make the easy throws and hope he'll learn how to take the harder ones.  Your narration of the situation is a good example of that difference in difficulty.

 

...But I think the the difference in skill sets between Brady and Allen should be reconciled in Allen's play.  While Allen can probably say, "yeah, I can take those throws, why not?" he also has the ability to make 30 yard frozen rope throws that thread the needle on a deep crosser and/or can open a receiver.  While you don't want him always doing this, he has skills that you want him to utilize at the right times. 

 

Brady is a great QB and it's silly to think Allen could "easily" do what he does- I get it.  But for sake of argument, let's assume he can.  Now, in that context, would you take the guy that does all the things Brady does, or would you take a guy that does all those things, and then, on the play Brady has to throw it away, this guy completes a 30 yard pass that's open because he has the arm strength to make it so?

This is exactly why I'm so excited about Allen.   I think it's possible, and I don't think it's a stretch, that five years from now Allen could be a "thinking" quarterback on a par with Brady, Peyton, Brees and have pure physical skills that surpass all of them.   He has a better arm, he moves better in the pocket, he runs better.  Allen could be in the top five quarterbacks of all time.  

 

Okay, don't come screaming back at me.  I'm not PREDICTING that he WILL be top 5 all time.  But after watching one season, there is no question that he is one of the extraordinary physical talents ever to play QB in the NFL.   He simply is.  Vick was faster, for sure, and a better runner.   Vick had a great arm, but he never became an excellent thrower and decision maker.  None of the current or recently retired greats can throw with Allen.  Physically, Allen has a very high ceiling.  The question is the extent to which he will master the mental game.  The good news is that we have not yet seen anything to suggest that the ceiling on is mental game is low.   2019 will give us a much better idea.  

[JESSEFEFFER]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is exactly why I'm so excited about Allen.   I think it's possible, and I don't think it's a stretch, that five years from now Allen could be a "thinking" quarterback on a par with Brady, Peyton, Brees and have pure physical skills that surpass all of them.   He has a better arm, he moves better in the pocket, he runs better.  Allen could be in the top five quarterbacks of all time.  

 

Okay, don't come screaming back at me.  I'm not PREDICTING that he WILL be top 5 all time.  But after watching one season, there is no question that he is one of the extraordinary physical talents ever to play QB in the NFL.   He simply is.  Vick was faster, for sure, and a better runner.   Vick had a great arm, but he never became an excellent thrower and decision maker.  None of the current or recently retired greats can throw with Allen.  Physically, Allen has a very high ceiling.  The question is the extent to which he will master the mental game.  The good news is that we have not yet seen anything to suggest that the ceiling on is mental game is low.   2019 will give us a much better idea.  

 

I can agree with most all of that.  It would be fun to watch that happen.  I am not sure about Vick being a better runner aside from speed.  Josh is tougher to bring down including a nasty stiff arm (don't do that with your right hand Josh!) and I always thought of Vick as fumbler.  When at Philly, I said that he was a combination of indecisive and unaware and often trapped and blindsided in the pocket.  I don't know what his actual ball security numbers are for his career but I think it to be extreme toward the negative.

[Ronin]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

No. YOU are the one trying to use offensive line quality as some predictor of quarterback performance. I simply pointed out that your ranking of offensive lines was flawed.

 

The whole point of every post I've made in this thread, if you go back and read them, is that you can't use any one specific statistic as a reliable indicator of how 'good' your quarterback is. Houston, to take your example, has a very poor offensive line and probably the best 1/2 wideout tandem in the league. Do those factors, as well as a myriad of others, contribute to Watson's ability to perform at QB...of course they do. 

 

I cited Driskel too.  Unfortunate that you seem to think, inherently, that he's good or had a good situation.  

 

Not sure how to respond to that.  

[oldmanfan]

As many here have already gone over, making these kinds of comparisons between the two guys, or any two guys, is difficult because of all the variables that can affect QB play other than just the individual.  Suffice it to say that you have two young Qbs that show pretty good potential.

 

To me, the one common denominator among young QBs that dictates their ultimate success is whether they can get the game to slow down such that they make the right decisions.  Which is a very hard thing to quantitate.  I think most guys that start in the NFL have the minimum physical ability to succeed; if they didn't they would have been screened out long before they got the opportunity to try their hand at QBing an NFL team.  Some have better arms than others, some are more precise than others, etc.  But all have to be able to make the correct decisions, and that involves getting the game to slow down so you make the correct pre-snap reads, get the ball out on a quick decision to your hot receiver and so on.  I think the league is littered with guys that had the physical ability but not the mental capacity to make it.  We had one in Losman, all the physical talents in the world but never got the game to slow down. 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I cited Driskel too.  Unfortunate that you seem to think, inherently, that he's good or had a good situation.  

 

Not sure how to respond to that.  

 

I don't really have an opinion on Driskel. And probably for the best you don't respond, since I never intimated I thought he was good or had a 'good situation'. I've probably never said or typed the name Jeff Driskel before just now. You're all over the place on this one.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As many here have already gone over, making these kinds of comparisons between the two guys, or any two guys, is difficult because of all the variables that can affect QB play other than just the individual.  Suffice it to say that you have two young Qbs that show pretty good potential.

 

To me, the one common denominator among young QBs that dictates their ultimate success is whether they can get the game to slow down such that they make the right decisions.  Which is a very hard thing to quantitate.  I think most guys that start in the NFL have the minimum physical ability to succeed; if they didn't they would have been screened out long before they got the opportunity to try their hand at QBing an NFL team.  Some have better arms than others, some are more precise than others, etc.  But all have to be able to make the correct decisions, and that involves getting the game to slow down so you make the correct pre-snap reads, get the ball out on a quick decision to your hot receiver and so on.  I think the league is littered with guys that had the physical ability but not the mental capacity to make it.  We had one in Losman, all the physical talents in the world but never got the game to slow down. 

Quantitate?  Is he Golden Tate's brother?

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

I don't really have an opinion on Driskel. And probably for the best you don't respond, since I never intimated I thought he was good or had a 'good situation'. I've probably never said or typed the name Jeff Driskel before just now. You're all over the place on this one.

 

I said it, you ignored it in comp to Allen.  Funny how that works. 

 

If you don't want me to respond, here's a thought, don't respond to me.  Better yet, just put me on ignore.  

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I can agree with most all of that.  It would be fun to watch that happen.  I am not sure about Vick being a better runner aside from speed.  Josh is tougher to bring down including a nasty stiff arm (don't do that with your right hand Josh!) and I always thought of Vick as fumbler.  When at Philly, I said that he was a combination of indecisive and unaware and often trapped and blindsided in the pocket.  I don't know what his actual ball security numbers are for his career but I think it to be extreme toward the negative.

Fair enough.

 

Since I wrote what I did, I've been asking myself who are the most physically gifted QBs in the history of the league.   I'm concluding that Allen is WAY up on the list.   

 

There's Vick, even with your qualifications.  Newton can run and has a big arm.  Elway is up on my list, but he didn't run Allen or the other two.  Randall Cunningham and Daunte Culpepper (it's interesting that they played for the same team within a few year of each other) were physically dominant runners and throwers.  In his younger days Peyton was a big thrower but never a running threat.  Maybe Steve Young has to be on the list.   Steve McNair.  Allen compares favorably with just about all of them.   

 

The open question about Allen is how good can he get as a field general.    

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

To the point of Cam Newton. He absolutely is a franchise QB. You can be inconsistent and fail to live up to your full expectations and still be a franchise QB. Perhaps that is the category that Cam fits into. I understand there is not a rock solid definition of a franchise QB, but I have a hard time seeing how Cam would not fit most or nearly all definitions of one. The fact that he has been the starting QB for the same team for 8 consecutive seasons is in itself the most simplistic measure that tells us he is a franchise QB. Regardless of how he has played. Throw in an MVP season, playoff success, regular season success. The guy is without a doubt a franchise QB. Inconsistent? Yes. Playoffs in three out of his eight seasons tells us that. Not ideal, but also not terrible considering the Super Bowl run and the fact that he's played in a division with two other super bowl contending teams in Atlanta and New Orleans over those eight seasons. This is not a case of the Colts under Manning beating up on poor AFC South teams or the Patriots beating up on poor AFC East teams over the last 18 years.

 

We can debate if Cam's run as a franchise QB is coming to an end. That is a fair discussion. Flacco was a franchise guy at one point too and is obviously not anymore. Some QB's stay at that level longer than other. Some ridiculously long like Brady. But based on his last season, I certainly would not right Cam off yet. We can also debate if his use as a runner will lead to a shorter peak as a franchise QB. Probably, not much of a debate. It likely will. And Allen may be on the same trajectory. We did see Newton put up some of his best passing numbers of his career in his eighth season though so perhaps his game is evolving in a good way as he ages. The same could happen for Allen down the road.

 

I am also not a fan of Cam's attitude, leadership, and perhaps work ethic and film study. But, IMO, Allen does not share those traits with Newton. Because Allen on the surface appears to be a better leader and have a better work ethic I think he has a chance to be even better than Newton. They certainly share similar physical traits and athletic ability.