Josh Allen vs Carson Wentz - Rookie Season

[corta765]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

 

One of the best posts in here in a while. A big part of the shorter passes is taking what the defense gives you. Allen can make every throw and wants to attack seemingly always. But sometimes the better play for the offense is the 4 or 5 yard slant or short pass. Not as sexy but helps move the chains. It's part of the growth as a QB. Mahomes lit it up with tons of big plays, but a big part of his success was his ability to the simple things perfect which allowed the more complex plays to happen.

Edited March 27, 2019 by corta765

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

No, I don't think that you do get it.  I love Allen, he's got quite a few intangible rare assets.  I can't even begin to tell how badly I hope he works out. 

 

Here's where almost everyone else doesn't get it, despite the fact that I've posted this probably 20 times and I know as a fact that most of the people having tantrums related to my direct responses, TO THEIRS, have read it before.  

 

But there isn't a QB in the league in recent history that has become a franchise QB w/o having perfected his short-medium game.  That's a verifiable fact. 

 

Yet, that's Allen's single biggest weakness and in spades.  Getting him "deep threat options" doesn't help that, at all.  If he doesn't learn to find and hit receivers, like Beasley as a case-in-point, as well as RBs that are open, he will never become a franchise QB, ever.  He can run all he wants.  Rushing won't contribute to his franchise status at all, it'll only shorten his career.  

 

As to not being on board, frankly, it doesn't matter who's on board or who isn't.  Myself, you, or anyone else.  Allen's either going to correct himself or he isn't.  I'd love for Allen to work out, but I have yet to see a QB that lacks a short-medium prowess to such an extent correct it in the NFL to the extent that they become a franchise QB.  It's a tall order. 

 

Can you name one?  

 

Everyone here seems to think, based on their own statements, that few if any of Allen's issues fall back onto him.  That's my only point of disagreement.  That's an absurd proposition but the most popular one by a country mile.  

 

I'd love to discuss that.  

I agree with much of this, but disagree with where you come out on Allen.   

 

You're absolutely right about the short and medium range game.  And when you asked people to name one franchise QB who isn't good at it, someone said Cam Newton.   Cam Newton is, in my opinion, a failure.   He hasn't won anything, and he accomplishes very little in the passing game.  You're right about Allen running - he can run all day, but his team will win consistently only if he becomes a successful thrower.  

 

Where I disagree is where you say or imply that Allen has some major problems to solve.  I don't think he does; I just think he has to change the way he plays.   He wasn't bad at throwing short balls (yes, he had some misses, more than he should); he was bad at deciding to throw short.   He regularly took the deep option.   That's why he led the league in air yards, and by a lot.   11 yards per throw, average, 50% higher than the league average.  The Bills have been clear that they want him to take the shorter, easier throws.  That's not a mechanical problem to fix; that's just getting him to understand what succeeds in the league.  I don't think that's a tall order, as you call it.   I think it's about getting him focused.   He's smart, he's coachable, he wants to win.   I think we will see a big change in him this season.  

 

I also agree with you that it's about Allen, not about what's around him.  I mean, I'm definitely in the camp that he needs a better offensive line, but success for players in the NFL is about the player plays, not about the guys around him. 

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

One of the best posts in here in a while. A big part of the shorter passes is taking what the defense gives you. Allen can make every throw and wants to attack seemingly always. But sometimes the better play for the offense is the 4 or 5 yard slant or short pass. Not as sexy but helps move the chains. It's part of the growth as a QB. Mahomes lit it up with tons of big plays, but a big part of his success was his ability to the simple things perfect which allowed the more complex plays to happen.

Thanks.

 

I haven't seen this anywhere, but I think that coaches are teaching their QBs that the two most important statistics in football are (1) highest possible percentage of successful plays and (2) lowest possible percentage of negative plays (lost yards or turnovers).    That is, you want every play to be positive and no play to be negative.  That's the objective.

 

If anyone is actually keeping these stats, they don't value a 15-yard completion any more than a 5-yard completion.   Each is a +1.  A high percentage of positive plays means you keep drives alive.   A low percentage of negative plays means you keep drives alive.   Keeping drives alive leads to (1) scores for you and (fewer scores for the opponent).   

 

So coaches tell QBs to throw for the 15-yard or 25-yard completion only when the guy is wide open.  If he isn't wide open, take the sure 5-yard completion, because the chances are much greater you'll have a positive play on the short throw than on the longer one.   Sure, you'd like the yards, but keeping the ball moving positively on every play is more important than hitting a big throw.  

 

I've developed this view watching Brady.   It seems like every ball he throws is to someone wide open.   Now, his receivers aren't all either blanketed or wide open; some of them are sort of open, but Brady won't throw to them.   He throws where he has a high probability to get the completion, regardless of the distance.   He also gives up on plays and throws the ball away a lot.  Why?  Because negative plays are bad, and the risk of a turnover or a sack isn't worth the 15 or 20 yards you MIGHT get if you wait a second longer.   He gives up and moves on.  He'd rather lower his positive play percentage a bit in exchange for not risking a negative play. 

 

Now, sure, there are times when you can't follow that rule, late in the game third down, you need a score.   Then you have take the risk of negative plays.  But those are relatively few.  

 

That's the lesson that I think they're teaching Allen, and that's why I think we're going to see a different, and more successful, quarterback this season.   I think we'll see his completion percentage go up, a lot, and his air yards go down.  He'll still throw medium and deep, but he'll only throw those when they look like high percentage throws.  He'll take the sure check downs more often.   On top of that, Beasley is going to be his security blank, like Edelman is for Brady.  Beasley's going to run precise routes and Allen will always know where to find him.  

[GoBills808]

Tough to call Newton a failure without throwing guys like Matt Ryan in there, who had far superior wideouts and hasn't 'won' anything. Andrew Luck similarly, Dalton etc...winning is a bad metric for QBs, or any position really. For that matter Rivers has never won and he's a borderline top 10 all time guy for me. Romo too.

 

This 'golden age' of QBs has really skewed fans' perspectives relative to QB statistics and how they relate to performance imo. For example there are only 14 LIFETIME quarterbacks who have a career passer rating over 90, and eight of them are playing in the league currently. There's a ton of context regarding how 'good' a quarterback is and trying to quantify it with a formula like passer rating or QBR is really misguided...they're rubrics that do not accurately depict the value of the position. You can't just say 'go look at the career passer rating list, it's full of the top guys'...I mean yeah, of course it is. So is the all time completions list, or all time yards list, or all time touchdowns list, or all time attempts- they're all the best QBs who have compiled these statistics at the top over the course of their careers. None of them alone should be argued as a means of measuring overall performance, and passer rating should be treated similarly. Especially, again, owing as much as it does to completion% which is very much a function of the modern game and in and of itself not a great predictor of quality either.

 

[ProcessYaDigg]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Some of us did say at the time Carson's rookie year was way overrated. He was very good for 4 games and then pretty much sucked from there. After week 4 Wentz was:

 

Played: 12

Total TDs: 11

Total Turnovers: 16

1.9% TD % (Pass)

Completion %: 61%

9.6 yards per completion

5.8 yards per attempt

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

Wentz is overrated.  Philly made a mistake letting Foles go.  Wentz is like an amazing one night stand that you thought was gonna be perfect.  Then you wake up the next morning scratching your crotch.  Tannehill/Romo 2.0

[Beast]

While stat comparisons are fun they rarely accurate, no matter what the numbers show.

 

Players on each team surrounding these QB’s are different. The opposition is different. Weather factors, different. Game situations, different. So many things.

 

1 hour ago, mushypeaches said:

But, but, but...... the national narrative is that Josh Allen sucks and will never get better

 

I'm still liking him as early career John Elway

 

Yep. Elway was my comparison from the beginning.

[transplantbillsfan]

Just as far as accuracy is concerned, I watched and broke down each and every pass by both guy:

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways

Allen -78.1% (2019)

Wentz - 77% (2016)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

Allen - 7.1% (2018)

Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

Wentz - 6.9% (2016)
Allen - 8.7% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

 

Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
Allen - 78.6% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Uncatchable passes: 104

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41
 

 

Wentz in his rookie year threw significantly more than any of the other rookies this year, and if you throw out Wentz's first 4 games in his rookie year where he had one of the hottest starts you'll probably ever see out of a rookie, just look at the insane difference between his first 4 games vs. his last 12:

 

1st 4 games

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 85.4%

Last 12 games

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6%

 

1st 4 games

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3%

Last 12 games

Throwaway/Spike %: 3%

 

1st 4 games

Interceptable Pass %: 6.6%

Last 12 games

Interceptable Pass %: 6%

 

1st 4 games

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 90.2%

Last 12 games

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 78.9%

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

Wentz is overrated.  Philly made a mistake letting Foles go.  Wentz is like an amazing one night stand that you thought was gonna be perfect.  Then you wake up the next morning scratching your crotch.  Tannehill/Romo 2.0

 

I think Wentz is a tad overrated. I disagree on Foles though. I think he is overrated too. People forget he started the first couple of games last season and was awful. Foles is going to fall hard in Jax. 

[rayray808]

Wentz had all preseason to work with the #1's, Allen didn't... this year will be huge for BOTH of them 

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

Wentz had all preseason to work with the #1's, Allen didn't... this year will be huge for BOTH of them 

That isn't correct. Bradford was the starter in Philly and was traded in September.  He got the majority of work with the #1s until he was traded.  Wentz was the backup until then. 

[GimmeSomeProcess]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Cam Newton?

Not even just Cam. Mike Vike was a franchise qb and I’ve been saying since December we just need to use him like that. Get some speed, have him throw it deep and run when the lanes are there. Vike was a nightmare to defend.

 

Another guy similar is Cunningham. Big arm and tested defenses but would run like hell. Hell Bledsoe is identicle to Allen in terms of passing. Inaccurate short but would challenge the defense on all levels. 

[WideNine]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I have this discussion all the time.  The passer rating is by far the best single data point to evaluate quarterbacks.   ALL the good quarterbacks have high passer ratings, and practically no QB with a high passer rating is not a good QB.    

 

Tyrod Taylor ran just as well as Josh and had a high QBR.   Doesn't matter.   Russell Wilson runs well AND he has a high passer rating.  That makes all the difference.

 

I don't care how well Josh Allen runs.   If he doesn't get his passer rating up by 30 points, he is NOT going to be the guy we hope.   

I think he will be improved, but for a better reason than the change in receivers.   He will improve because of coaching and because of the experience he gained last season. 

 

In particular, his completion percentage, and thus his passer rating, will go up in 2019 because he will throw more short passes, including check downs.   That's what his coaches want, and he's a coachable guy.   

 

Better receivers will help, but it's Josh's decision making that will make the real difference. 

 

I think he improves because he won't be asked to be most all of our offense as he was as a rookie last year.

 

Throw in an o-line that can actually block so he is not pressured on close to 40% of his drops as he was last year and a running game to share the load, and yes receivers that can get open AND hang onto the ball.

 

I have less demand on Allen getting better, than I do the rest of the offense needing to improve around him.

 

With a cleaner pocket and some reliable underneath targets in Beasley, Gore, and Kroft he will learn to take the yards he can...especially if he does not feel he has to play hero-ball. Daboll and staff will drill that into him as well.

 

I for one do not want him to not take those long shots with Foster and Brown on the outside. Completion % be damned

 

It is not a bad thing that defenses have to respect that Josh can hit those speed guys 60-70 yards downfield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by WideNine

[njbuff]

Allen is a unique talent and if he is successful, there will be countless QB's compared to him.

[Shaw66]

42 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I think he improves because he won't be asked to be most all of our offense as he was as a rookie last year.

 

Throw in an o-line that can actually block so he is not pressured on close to 40% of his drops as he was last year.

 

A running game to share the load, and yes receivers that can get open AND hang onto the ball.

 

I have less demand on Allen getting better, than I do the rest of the offense needing to improve around him.

 

With a cleaner pocket and some reliable underneath targets in Beasley, Gore, and Kroft he will learn to take the yards he can...especially if he does not feel he has to play hero-ball. Daboll and staff will drill that into him as well.

 

And I for one do not want him to not take those long shots with Foster and Brown on the outside. Completion % be damned

 

It is not a bad thing that defenses have to respect that Josh can hit those speed guys 60-70 yards downfield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All true.  But I think his improvement is key.

 

And the Bills definitely will go deep.  They will throw all over the field.  It's just that they will want to be smart about when he goes where. 

[LSHMEAB]

14 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Allen is a unique talent and if he is successful, there will be countless QB's compared to him.

I tend to respectfully disagree. I think he has such a unique skill set and career trajectory that if succeeds, it will be an outlier. QB's with that kind of talent just don't come around often. QB's with accuracy issues don't GENERALLY succeed. He's not going to make it all if he can't improve his efficiency, but I view him as an anomalous QB without a peer. Cam Newton is without a doubt the closest in terms of raw talent.

[Logic]

Interestingly, Bills fans are now in a familiar position watching their QB as they have been in recent years, but we're now on the opposite side of it. Let me explain what I mean:

For years we watched the likes of Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick get off to hot starts, but then defensive coordinators would just learn to have their defenses squat on all the short and underneath stuff, daring the Bills QBs to beat them deep. The Bills' QBs couldn't do that, so it was game over for the Bills offense.

Now we're on the flip side with Allen: defensive coordinators are going to take away the deep stuff, knowing that that's Allen's bread and butter. They'll want to force him to dink and dunk and beat them underneath. He has yet to show that he can do that consistently in the NFL. We already KNOW he can make the long bomb, the "wow" play, the improvisatory "how did he do that?!" play. We just haven't seen him consistently make the routine plays, the gimmes, the 4 yard gains on 1st and 2nd down. THIS is where Allen needs to improve in order to be a complete QB.

Of course, I'd rather have the guy that pushes the ball down the field that you have to yell at to check down than the guy who only checks down and you have to yell at him to take chances. We've had enough Checkdown Charlies over the past 20 years in Buffalo. We finally have a gunslinger. He just needs to learn that you never go broke making a profit. And I think he WILL learn it. And the other nice thing about the defenses taking away the deep stuff is that it should open things up for the Bills' ground game considerably -- assuming the o-line can start holding its own.

At the end of the day, the most informative comment I've yet heard about who Allen IS as a quarterback comes form Allen himself: When asked in college why he threw a low percentage but successful long bomb TD instead of a pass to the primary target who was running a shorter route on the play, Allen told his coach "Favre says always go for the touchdown". That stuck with me. That's Allen, and I think it always will be, for better or worse.

[Dr. Who]

57 minutes ago, Logic said:

At the end of the day, the most informative comment I've yet heard about who Allen IS as a quarterback comes form Allen himself: When asked in college why he threw a low percentage but successful long bomb TD instead of a pass to the primary target who was running a shorter route on the play, Allen told his coach "Favre says always go for the touchdown". That stuck with me. That's Allen, and I think it always will be, for better or worse.

Well written, as always, yet isn't the point of your overall comment that it can't always be Allen, for better or worse? No doubt, Allen will retain the gunslinger streak. That's exciting and he has the arm to deliver.  But Allen needs to take the short throw and allow for the boring, drive sustaining play if he's to become the best qb possible. I think he's smart enough and humble enough to figure it out.

[Scott7975]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Some of us did say at the time Carson's rookie year was way overrated. He was very good for 4 games and then pretty much sucked from there. After week 4 Wentz was:

 

Played: 12

Total TDs: 11

Total Turnovers: 16

1.9% TD % (Pass)

Completion %: 61%

9.6 yards per completion

5.8 yards per attempt

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

This... and on the flipside I felt like Josh came out not so good and improved as the season went on.

[Logic]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well written, as always, yet isn't the point of your overall comment that it can't always be Allen, for better or worse? No doubt, Allen will retain the gunslinger streak. That's exciting and he has the arm to deliver.  But Allen needs to take the short throw and allow for the boring, drive sustaining play if he's to become the best qb possible. I think he's smart enough and humble enough to figure it out.

The main thing is that I don't think he'll ever be a Brees or a Brady, slowly matriculating the ball down the field on a regular basis. Even if/when he learns to take the gimmes and checkdowns, I think he'll always be a "No no no.........YES!!!" guy. To some extent, I think we'll always have to live with the extreme highs and the head scratching lows with Allen. I think watching him will be a lot like watching Brett Favre: Amazing plays that only he could make and memorable moments galore, but also a bunch of frustrating interceptions and questionable decisions. Me, personally? I'll take the tradeoff. No risk it, no biscuit.

 

[rayray808]

31 minutes ago, Logic said:

The main thing is that I don't think he'll ever be a Brees or a Brady, slowly matriculating the ball down the field on a regular basis. Even if/when he learns to take the gimmes and checkdowns, I think he'll always be a "No no no.........YES!!!" guy. To some extent, I think we'll always have to live with the extreme highs and the head scratching lows with Allen. I think watching him will be a lot like watching Brett Favre: Amazing plays that only he could make and memorable moments galore, but also a bunch of frustrating interceptions and questionable decisions. Me, personally? I'll take the tradeoff. No risk it, no biscuit.

 

 

THIS!

 

I think comparing QB's to previous players at the position is good to a certain extent, but at what point can we just say Josh Allen is Josh Allen.. pro's and con's like every other QB but one thing he has that few have had in the past? He loves Buffalo, and wants to be the leader of this team.