Josh Allen vs Carson Wentz - Rookie Season

[Ronin]

10 minutes ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

For someone who comes across who thinks they know a lot about football, you clearly fall short in understanding the importance of an oline. Allen literally had nothing to work at reciever and had zero run game to speak of. That puts a rookie qb at a huge disadvantage. But sure cherry pick your stats to prove your point. 

 

So please, for me, factor in two things.  

 

First, that Allen often missed wide open receivers, so much so that on replays you could actually see the visible frustrations on the receivers' parts.  This was a frequent occurrence and something admitted to by McD even.  

 

Secondly, please reconcile Allen's league-leading time-to-throw of 3.22 seconds, which is enormous, against the backdrop of what you just said.  

 

I'll  respond to that, nothing else.  

 

Funny how everyone just thinks what they want to think and sucks up all the rainbows and unicorns narratives despite the flaws.  

[eball]

@TaskersGhost are you insane?  The only thing anyone has opined in this thread is that it warrants optimism Allen was able to put up comparable -- and better in some cases -- stats behind a terrible OL and with awful targets to what the Wunderkind Carson Wentz did in his rookie season.

 

Give your crusade a rest.

 

Edited March 27, 2019 by eball

[Ronin]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

LOL.....just LOL

 

So you're on record saying that Jordan Matthews is what, a top-rated impact WR then?  

 

Help me out here.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

Allen had more time-to-throw.  Does that factor in?  

 

Allow me to ask tho, does ANY of this fall onto Allen as you see it?  

 

Based on everything I'm reading here Allen's poop doesn't stink in the overall analysis.  

 

Better mobility, longer times for receivers to open.

We get it, you're not on board with Allen.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, TaskersGhost said:

 

So you're on record saying that Jordan Matthews is what, a top-rated impact WR then?  

 

Help me out here.  

There is a LOOOOOT of room in between "should not be on the field because they hurt you" types and "good but not great types"

 

Last year Jordan Matthews would have been our BEST receiver (barring the time where Foster made his huge turn around in production later in the year.

[Ronin]

Just now, eball said:

@TaskersGhost are you insane?  The only thing anyone has opined in this thread is that it warrants optimism Allen was able to put up comparable -- and better in some cases -- stats behind a terrible OL and with awful targets as the Wunderkind Carson Wentz did in his rookie season.

 

Give your crusade a rest.

 

LOL 

 

And all I did was shed some light on some of the key differences.  All I did was post the numbers.  Otherwise I'm simply reacting to the posts off of that.  Meanwhile, I haven't heard anyone say that Red Zone performance is key and that data is troubling, or that Wentz' far greater consistency, which is obvious except to those blinded with whatever it is they're blinded by that disenables them to see the reality therein.  All I see is excuses, except of course that Allen has anything whatsoever to do with his own passing prowess.  

 

So I get it, you and everyone else seems to think that how a QB performs in the Red Zone is meaningless.  I do get it, I really do.  .  

 

To me that's what's insane.  But hey, everyone's entitled to believe what they want.  

 

Funny thing is that everyone opining as such will likely support the narrative about what a great job McBeane are doing correcting the O in FAcy, without considering that they made quite a few moves last season too that simply didn't work out.  But hey, John Brown's our solution.  

 

So we''re all set then, one or two linemen, Gore and Shady, we're good to go and off to the races.  

 

You really believe that?  

[Hebert19]

Throw goff in here too and then you realize the plan.  Or trubinski.

[Ronin]

5 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Better mobility, longer times for receivers to open.

We get it, you're not on board with Allen.

 

 

 

No, I don't think that you do get it.  I love Allen, he's got quite a few intangible rare assets.  I can't even begin to tell how badly I hope he works out. 

 

Here's where almost everyone else doesn't get it, despite the fact that I've posted this probably 20 times and I know as a fact that most of the people having tantrums related to my direct responses, TO THEIRS, have read it before.  

 

But there isn't a QB in the league in recent history that has become a franchise QB w/o having perfected his short-medium game.  That's a verifiable fact. 

 

Yet, that's Allen's single biggest weakness and in spades.  Getting him "deep threat options" doesn't help that, at all.  If he doesn't learn to find and hit receivers, like Beasley as a case-in-point, as well as RBs that are open, he will never become a franchise QB, ever.  He can run all he wants.  Rushing won't contribute to his franchise status at all, it'll only shorten his career.  

 

As to not being on board, frankly, it doesn't matter who's on board or who isn't.  Myself, you, or anyone else.  Allen's either going to correct himself or he isn't.  I'd love for Allen to work out, but I have yet to see a QB that lacks a short-medium prowess to such an extent correct it in the NFL to the extent that they become a franchise QB.  It's a tall order. 

 

Can you name one?  

 

Everyone here seems to think, based on their own statements, that few if any of Allen's issues fall back onto him.  That's my only point of disagreement.  That's an absurd proposition but the most popular one by a country mile.  

 

I'd love to discuss that.  

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Did you look to find out?  

 

If you'd have bet that you'd have lost.  

 

Ertz, a TE, was his top receiver.  Jordan Matthews was his only other WR worthy of note. All in all Allen had more options.  

Not even close. 

 

Ertz’s backup, Trey Burton would have been 2nd on Buffalo in receptions this year. Plus He had Sproles who was still a weapon out of the backfield.

 

Allen had...McCoy (sometimes) and Zay Jones with rookie Robert Foster sprinkled in. JAG’s outside of that.

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

When he returned  from injury, Josh had 4 games over 70 in passer rating with 2 duds (Jets and NE).  His passer rating in last 6 games averaged 76.  Selective yes, but the Bills offense was different then too with Foster etc.

[billsrul120]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Of course, this data is cherry picked.  Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4; Allen was 52.8.   That's a very important difference.  

 

The result is that their passer ratings were very different:  79.3 vs. 67.9.   A passer rating in the high 70s is pretty good; many good rookies finish there, and some not so good (EJ Manuel, for example).   A rookie passer rating in the high 60s is not good.  

 

Personally, I think Josh will have a completion percentage over 60% this season, because the Bills will stress to him the importance of throwing shorter passes to increase his completion percentage.  But what I think and what actually happens often are two dramatically different things.  

 

Josh needs to be better to be effective.   

 

Josh Allen

first 6 starts average passer rating: 63.42

last 6 starts average passer rating: 77.12

over 20% improvement after coming back from injury

 

Carson Wentz

first 8 starts average passer rating: 87.79 (91.07 over first 6)

last 8 starts average passer rating: 73.1 (72.92 over 2nd 6)

Nearly 17% worse

 

Josh Allen showed significant improvement in his passer rating after the injury.  Right on par with pretty good.  And that's with passer rating not giving much weight to his running skills.

Edited March 27, 2019 by billsrul120

[Stank_Nasty]

50 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Really? 

 

Jones, McCoy, Foster,, Benjamin, Croom, Clay, McKenzie, Ivory, and Holmes.  Almost all of whom underachieved in their receiving games from their annual averages.  

 

Of course that couldn't have had anything to do with the QB play, despite the notion that I've already proven that our secondary receiver like RBs caught more passes on average for more yards without Allen under Center.  But that's irrelevant, right?  

 

Allen had more time-to-throw.  Does that factor in?  

 

Allow me to ask tho, does ANY of this fall onto Allen as you see it?  

 

Based on everything I'm reading here Allen's poop doesn't stink in the overall analysis.  

bro..... holmes and Benjamin were part of our top 3 wr's the first half of the season. holmes got claimed by the broncos and promptly got cut. KB couldn't freaking crack the top 5 in KC by the end of the year. a healthy scratch.... THESE WERE SOME OF ALLENS PRIMARY WEAPONS FOR OVER A HALF A SEASON. they cant even hang on to spots on other teams rosters.

 

you need to stop. its embarrassing.

[freddyjj]

32 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

No, I don't think that you do get it.  I love Allen, he's got quite a few intangible rare assets.  I can't even begin to tell how badly I hope he works out. 

 

Here's where almost everyone else doesn't get it, despite the fact that I've posted this probably 20 times and I know as a fact that most of the people having tantrums related to my direct responses, TO THEIRS, have read it before.  

 

But there isn't a QB in the league in recent history that has become a franchise QB w/o having perfected his short-medium game.  That's a verifiable fact. 

 

Yet, that's Allen's single biggest weakness and in spades.  Getting him "deep threat options" doesn't help that, at all.  If he doesn't learn to find and hit receivers, like Beasley as a case-in-point, as well as RBs that are open, he will never become a franchise QB, ever.  He can run all he wants.  Rushing won't contribute to his franchise status at all, it'll only shorten his career.  

 

As to not being on board, frankly, it doesn't matter who's on board or who isn't.  Myself, you, or anyone else.  Allen's either going to correct himself or he isn't.  I'd love for Allen to work out, but I have yet to see a QB that lacks a short-medium prowess to such an extent correct it in the NFL to the extent that they become a franchise QB.  It's a tall order. 

 

Can you name one?  

 

Everyone here seems to think, based on their own statements, that few if any of Allen's issues fall back onto him.  That's my only point of disagreement.  That's an absurd proposition but the most popular one by a country mile.  

 

I'd love to discuss that.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00/gamelog/2009/  Matthew Stafford

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RyanMa00/gamelog/2008/  Matt Ryan

 

While Ryan started out hotter, both these players were collegiate players with sub 60% accuracy who improved as pros. Ryan had a better rookie year but hovered around 60% and was 58% in year 3.  

 

Stafford took 5-6 years to get to mid 60%.  

 

Not sure these are franchise QBs but they are very close to Allen in college performance and as an early pro - without the mobility upside.

 

Want the Mobility factor added, there's always this guy - Cam Newton - and he was a 67% completion rate QB with a 94 QB rating last year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NewtCa00.htm  Might be why Dorsey was brought in.

Edited March 27, 2019 by freddyjj

[MJS]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Some of us did say at the time Carson's rookie year was way overrated. He was very good for 4 games and then pretty much sucked from there. After week 4 Wentz was:

 

Played: 12

Total TDs: 11

Total Turnovers: 16

1.9% TD % (Pass)

Completion %: 61%

9.6 yards per completion

5.8 yards per attempt

 

Wentz rookie year was a classic case of narrative. He came out hot, played 4 good games and the narrative became "Wentz is fantastic" despite the fact that after that hot start he really struggled.

 

Great point. Allen struggled early and then got better and better as the season went on, capped off with a stellar week 17 game where he put up established franchise QB numbers. I'd take that over a hot start and fizzling out.

[HappyDays]

TaskersGhost recently compared Andre Holmes to Marquise Goodwin. Not worth anyone's time. This thread should be set on fire.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

It's funny, when the narrative fits Foster's on the cusp of being elite, Jones is great but takes a few seasons to develop, and Benjamin, whose career trajectory has been better than Matthews is irrelevant.  

 

 

What did Benjamin do when he went to the Cheifs and got to play with the league MVP? Tell me again how he is not washed up. I don't care what he did in 2013-2014. What did he do last year? Or even the year before?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

But there isn't a QB in the league in recent history that has become a franchise QB w/o having perfected his short-medium game.  That's a verifiable fact. 

 

Yet, that's Allen's single biggest weakness and in spades.  Getting him "deep threat options" doesn't help that, at all.  If he doesn't learn to find and hit receivers, like Beasley as a case-in-point, as well as RBs that are open, he will never become a franchise QB, ever.  He can run all he wants.  Rushing won't contribute to his franchise status at all, it'll only shorten his career.  

 

As to not being on board, frankly, it doesn't matter who's on board or who isn't.  Myself, you, or anyone else.  Allen's either going to correct himself or he isn't.  I'd love for Allen to work out, but I have yet to see a QB that lacks a short-medium prowess to such an extent correct it in the NFL to the extent that they become a franchise QB.  It's a tall order. 

 

Can you name one?  

 

Cam Newton?

[Stank_Nasty]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

What did Benjamin do when he went to the Cheifs and got to play with the league MVP? Tell me again how he is not washed up. I don't care what he did in 2013-2014. What did he do last year? Or even the year before?

i'll say it because he wont...…. HE COULDNT EVEN CRACK THE ACTIVE ROSTER!!!

 

our #1 wr through midseason couldn't even crack a playoff squads top 5 wr's. let that soak in people!!!

[mushypeaches]

But, but, but...... the national narrative is that Josh Allen sucks and will never get better

 

I'm still liking him as early career John Elway

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 

I do not have the same respect for passer rating as you.  Avoid a sack, escape the pocket and throw the ball away?  A good play that hurts passer rating.  Score a TD on a sneak or a 15+ yard scramble where several tackles are broke?  Good/great plays that passer rating does not care about.  Take a sack by holding the ball too long or running out-of-bounds behind the line?  Bad plays that passer rating does not measure.  Failing to secure the ball while being hit and fumble?  Another bad play ignored by passer rating.  Throw and complete a pass for 6 yards on 3rd and 11?  Inconsequential but passer rating loves it and gives it a 92.

 

I do not think Josh will ever max out on passer rating.  He will tend to score more TDs running than most because he is good at it and it's low hanging fruit, avoid sacks, and throw to the sticks on 3rd down.  Thus, passing TD% is lower and completion % is lower.

 

I tend to respect tQBR more because it tries to evaluate every play in it's context but it is a mystery how Allen got a tQBR of 19.4 for the game vs. the Lions (passer rating 89.3) where Stafford got an 83.3(106.7) in a game won by the Bills 14-13.  That is a head scratcher and good counter evidence for those that do not like it.

 

 

I think your reliance on QBR is misplaced.   I think you bought what ESPN was selling, which was that QBR was somehow a better all-round measure of QB performance.   I don't think it is.  

 

I took a look at the 50 best QB seasons based on passer rating and on QBR.   You know which names dominate BOTH lists?  Brady, Manning, Rodgers.  Rodgers is the only one who arguably should get a QBR boost from his running ability.  Guess what?  He has four of the top 50 passer rating seasons, and only three of the top 50 QBR seasons.  How about the most successful running QB, Russell Wilson?  He has exactly two of the top 50 QBR seasons, and he also has exactly two of the top 50 passer rating seasons.  Interestingly, they are different seasons.   

 

How Cam Newton?  Not on either list.   

 

So I looked at the list of best rushing seasons by quarterbacks.   Guess what?   The list is full of exciting names, but not winners.   Russell Wilson is the one exception.   The names are Vick, Cunningham, Culpepper, Newton, RGIII, Tyrod Taylor.  Josh Allen has the 16th best rushing season of all time, but he still was only 25th in QBR.  

 

Running is not the name of game for winning QBs.   Passing is.   And the passer rating is a good measure of passing success, without cluttering it up with a lot of other stuff that doesn't change the fundamental conclusion.   The best QBs rate high in both, and running doesn't have any significant impact on the QBR. 

 

On top of that, Josh Allen's future is passing, not running.   It's true for every QB.    

26 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

But, but, but...... the national narrative is that Josh Allen sucks and will never get better

 

I'm still liking him as early career John Elway

I've thought for a long time that Elway is the guy Allen is most like.