This data suggests waiting until 2nd and 3rd rounds on WR and TE

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

a 4th DT to get 40% of snaps is a good use of a top 10 pick? What about our highest paid player (Star)? Or our 3rd round pick from a season ago that everyone said was Kyle's replacement? Or a 2nd rounder we picked up during the season form a division rival who only left for personal reasons?

 

We had the worst WRs in the league last year. We signed a 30 and 29 year old with a combined one 1,000 yard season. That position will be improved but I'd be shocked if they're better than average as it stands. I'm excited about Foster's potential, but let's not assume he's a sure fire starter after a few good games.

 

It's important to keep in mind what our coaches are trying to do.  They are building a puzzle (which is going to be different than other teams), and we need strong pieces that fit into their scheme and system.

 

Don't worry so much about snap percentage.  Sean McDermott's defense is built on a heavy rotation of defensive linemen.  He doesn't send a lot of blitzes, so he likes to have front rushers fresh.  And he likes to adjust personnel depending on how the offense is attacking.  Last year, we had a 4-man rotation at DT between Star Lotulelei, Kyle Williams, Harrison Phillips and Jordan Phillips.  We lost Williams and don't have anyone on the roster who is a pure 3-Tech.  It's a huge need.  And to my knowledge, there haven't even been rumors of us showing interest in a DT replacement on the free agent market.

 

On the offense side, our coordinator Brian Daboll seems to be heavily influenced by the Patriots.  He doesn't want our quarterback zeroing in a primary target, like you may see in Cincinnati with AJ Green.  He wants his quarterback to identify the matchups, and utilize all of his targets on the field.  Based on comments from both McDermott and Brandon Beane, I think they have the same philosophy on offense.  We may not have a single #1 guy who will get you 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns.  But Cole Beasley is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL.  John Brown is one of the better deep threats.  When you add up everyone's skills, you should have enough talent to be dangerous on offense (assuming Josh Allen develops into the QB we need him to be). 

 

With that said, I definitely could see us targeting a tight end high in this draft. 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Could it be that fewer total TEs get drafted early (as compared to QB, WR, OT, DE, DT, CB, etc.), therefore spreading out the numbers (of productive/elite players) based simply on greater quantities going later in the draft? 

 

 

This is what I was thinking as well. Teams and GM's in general do not value TE's, Guards and RB's in the 1st round like they do CB's, OT, WR's and DE's. By that fact alone, we can conclude that drafting a TE in the first round would be overvaluing the position just based on the traditional line of thinking of GM's. But of course that is not to say an elite TE is not worth the pick in the first round if there happens to be one.

9 hours ago, Mat68 said:

But some NFL execs,  the one's who have the final, that are not football fans or lifers fall for it.  See Ej Manuel 14th overall.  Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel.  

 

Hindsight is 20/20 but we should have seen the Manuel bust coming. I can't think of another time in NFL draft history that a team traded BACK too get their franchise QB. That definitely should have been a warning sign.

[Virgil]

In this case, as with RB’s, I don’t think historical data can be applied as much because neither position is prioritized by the league recently.  

 

For whatever reason, RB by committee or Spread formation trends, these positions are not looked at as positions needed in the first few days.  

 

I’m not saying it doesn’t happen and I do think RB’s are starting to come around again, but I think it’s overall hard to make the comparison the way you did.  

 

But good work honestly 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

weakest starter on team.....TE

 

Hockenson will be a pro bowl TE

 

whoever else  gets picked at #9 will not make pro bowl 

 

 

I'm thinking he's the best choice if the top D players are gone. I'm still going defense if one falls. 

[BillsMafia13]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

It's not just the top 20. Trading up, say, from #40 where we are to #27, the sort of thing being constantly talked about on here these days, will cost you a 3rd.

 

Don't trade away higher round picks. If you can work something out, like a same-round switch or something, great. But don't give up 2nds or 3rds. Even 4ths and 5ths are valuable (Taron Johnson in the 4th and Teller in the 5th last year and Milano in the 5th the year before). Smaller tradeups outside the first can make a lot of sense, but the further up you trade the more you give up valuable picks.

But when you have filled most of your spots in FA and have an excess of draft picks it affords you the luxury of going quality over quantity.  Ill take trades and 6 great draft picks over standing and 10 good picks.  But thats just me

[BillsMafia13]

2 hours ago, papazoid said:

weakest starter on team.....TE

 

Hockenson will be a pro bowl TE

 

whoever else  gets picked at #9 will not make pro bowl 

 

 

People hating on a TE at 9, including me honestly.  If he's all everyones making him out to be he could be a great weapon.  Its like Fantasy, value at WR can be found all over the place but a truly great TE is rare. He'll never be Jay  Riemersma though.

[BillsMafia13]

2 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

This is just a difference of opinion. Right now we have zero elite WR. I would prefer we have 3. Was KC ok with having Tyreek? No they shelled out big money for Sammy. Aside from what you think of him/his contract they weren’t satisfied with an all-pro WR and TE as their weapons. 

 

As for DT, you can absolutely get a 3 tech from a non top 10 pick, free agency (Richardson 1 year 9mil), or trade (Dareus). Gerald McCoy is still out there as a trade possibility and Jerry Tillery graded out better as a pass rusher than Oliver. 

 

Even if we add a “starter” at DT odds are he won’t be playing more than 60% of snaps. McDermott runs a rotation on the D line. I’ve seen many poster cite a stat where all DT from last year played around 40% of snaps. 

JJ, Hopkins, Evans, Hill/Watkins, Adams, Hilton, JuJu, OBJ, Thielen/Diggs (2 elites), Green,. How many of these teams have even gotten close to the superbowl the last 5 years.  Patriots win one every other year with toll booth operators, elite wrs are much more about show than substance.  No great WR has ever carried a team, even with a great qb.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Never trade up, unless it is to get a QB near the top of the draft.

 

 

 

 

If you can move up to get a guy you really like for your team, provided its good valuation there no reason not to. 

 

I like that our GM seems to treat picks as a commodity to trade around for the best group of players rather than a fixed immovable number collected in line at the deli counter 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[BigBuff423]

2 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Oliver was also in a far worse scheme as laid out recently by PFF. Also

Oliver-32 GP 13.5 sacks 53 TFL 122 solo tackles

Tillery- 42 GP 12.5 sacks 23 TFL 70 solo tackles 

So, you can try an convince your self Tillery brings more to the table, but clearly he doesnt.

 

As far as rotation, that would be predicated on context, would it not? Not some sort of fixated number.

-What down is it? What package/formation is the offense using? How fresh are the bodies? Etc...

 

As far as Star, the guy is a limited at best zero tech and is the perfect example of your argument... doing something stupid and rash because you have a need and not assessing the value. Buffalo has just given up 18 rushing TDs the year prior. They made a knee jerk reaction trying to address a desperate need.

 

Moreover, loving a third rounder, at a position that features more than one of them at a time on the field, and more than likely a rotation of some nature, doesnt mean you cant improve there

 

You said yourself, you really like Foster and how he played at the end of the year, and you still want to improve at the position, all the while Foster showing a lot more than Phillips did.

 

All-in-all there just isnt a WR in this class that has the same grade/value at nine as DL does.

If anything, the original post shows that the third and fourth rounds are probably the worst rounds for WR

 

 

Well, the 3rd / 4th round was more in reference to TE, but the way WRs are now valued in the NFL they become more about how they fit within the Offense then a truly dominant WR taken in the 1st round. Antonio Brown was a 6th, Doug Baldwin was a 5th, Edelman 7th round, Michael Thomas 2nd round, Jordy Nelson 2nd round, etc. with my only point being it doesn't need to be a 1st round WR. The league is littered with good to great WRs taken in the middle rounds. Of course there is Julio Jones, OBJ, AJ Green, but except for Julio, those great WRs don't translate to more wins. Pats, Seahawks, get average WRs to play extremely well within their system and don't spend high picks on WRs (typically) in the last seven to 10 years. That's the new NFL, IMHO.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

43 minutes ago, BillsMafia13 said:

JJ, Hopkins, Evans, Hill/Watkins, Adams, Hilton, JuJu, OBJ, Thielen/Diggs (2 elites), Green,. How many of these teams have even gotten close to the superbowl the last 5 years.  Patriots win one every other year with toll booth operators, elite wrs are much more about show than substance.  No great WR has ever carried a team, even with a great qb.  

 

Patriots have the best QB and best coach of all time. They’re an anomaly. 

 

Atlanta and Julio lost in OT in Super Bowl to them. Watkins had what would have been the game winning catch at the 1 yard line if Dee Ford hadn’t gone Offside in AFC championship. He’s better than any of our WRs. 

 

You’re telling me the Pats wouldn’t rather have any of those WRs?  They tried to upgrade with Gordon last year. They smashed records with moss. You’re basically saying elite wide receivers don’t make your offense better. It’s an insane argument. 

[BillsFan17]

7 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Well, the 3rd / 4th round was more in reference to TE, but the way WRs are now valued in the NFL they become more about how they fit within the Offense then a truly dominant WR taken in the 1st round. Antonio Brown was a 6th, Doug Baldwin was a 5th, Edelman 7th round, Michael Thomas 2nd round, Jordy Nelson 2nd round, etc. with my only point being it doesn't need to be a 1st round WR. The league is littered with good to great WRs taken in the middle rounds. Of course there is Julio Jones, OBJ, AJ Green, but except for Julio, those great WRs don't translate to more wins. Pats, Seahawks, get average WRs to play extremely well within their system and don't spend high picks on WRs (typically) in the last seven to 10 years. That's the new NFL, IMHO.

The data proves exactly what you are saying tho. Yes, there are players at almost every position that happen to get selected all over the draft, but the highest probability of hitting a stud comes earlier in the draft.

 

Sure, you can win a lot of money playin the lottery, or you can make a lot of money putting your head down and busting your arse. Which one has the higher probability for success/results? Doesnt stop people from playing the lottery, and some even win, but I'll take my chances with hard work.

 

As far as those teams you have mentioned, one of them happened to have a first ballot (IMO) Hall Of Fame TE. Also had the likes of Randy Moss at one point. They traded for Josh Gordon and have at points tried to target better WRs than just fodder. Also happen to have arguably the best QB of all time.

 

I do get the point you are making, however trying to emulate those organizations goes well beyond the personnel they incorporate, is vastly unfair. There is a lot more at play than just the players.

[Mat68]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

All of the signs are pointing to us going D-Line in the first round.  I just don't see us taking a WR that early anymore.

Based on free agency, this is starting to become a numbers game with the roster.

 

The majority of NFL teams only keep 6 wide receivers.  We may make an exception and go with 7 because of Andre Roberts being a returner.  Either way... out of that group you are only going to see 3-4 guys get significant snaps on offense (barring injury). 

-  They haven't been pursuing John Brown for two offseasons, just so he can sit the bench. 

-  You can guarantee Cole Beasley is going to be our top slot receiver and will get a bunch of targets.

-  Robert Foster earned his way into a good chunk of playing time last year.

-  Zay Jones has shown progress, and will certainly get one more season to prove himself. 

 

Drafting a WR high pushes one of these other guys down the lineup, and gets them virtually no snaps.  So either you signed guys in free agency for no reason, or you give young/developing guys no chance.  Nobody sitting in the #5 slot is going to see more than 15-20 targets on the season. 

Now, I know that some people are hugely critical of Zay Jones and have already given up on him, but I don't think the coaching staff is there yet.  Maybe he loses playing time by mid-season if he fails to get better.  But if you draft a rookie at #9, then you are basically signaling Jone's  time in Buffalo is already over.

 

 

Beasley is guaranteed slot.  Brown is guaranteed to be a vertical threat when he is on the field.  Jones, Foster, McKenzie will have to improve to get on the feild and roster.  Adding a Wr imo happens day 1 or 2 of the draft.

[BillsMafia13]

12 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Patriots have the best QB and best coach of all time. They’re an anomaly. 

 

Atlanta and Julio lost in OT in Super Bowl to them. Watkins had what would have been the game winning catch at the 1 yard line if Dee Ford hadn’t gone Offside in AFC championship. He’s better than any of our WRs. 

 

You’re telling me the Pats wouldn’t rather have any of those WRs?  They tried to upgrade with Gordon last year. They smashed records with moss. You’re basically saying elite wide receivers don’t make your offense better. It’s an insane argument. 

Basically not saying that, Julio is accurate but hes the best in the game, Megatron is the only other. Using one play that almost happened doesnt support an elite WR being that valuable, ESPECIALLY not Sammy.  Are you telling me the Pats couldnt have signed a better WR than Chris Hogan, since maybe Moss?  Me thinks they could have but realized that isnt what will put them over the top

[gordong]

10 hours ago, rayray808 said:

we are taking a WR first... maybe not at 9, but first

 

 

 I'll take that bet.... it' going to be  DT or DE.  98% sure its where they are slotted to go and we need both BADLY

[DallasMac]

2 hours ago, BillsMafia13 said:

Basically not saying that, Julio is accurate but hes the best in the game, Megatron is the only other. Using one play that almost happened doesnt support an elite WR being that valuable, ESPECIALLY not Sammy.  Are you telling me the Pats couldnt have signed a better WR than Chris Hogan, since maybe Moss?  Me thinks they could have but realized that isnt what will put them over the top

They traded for Brandin Cooks, picked up Josh Gordon hoping he would return to form.  They are making attempts to improve their wide receivers but when you have Brady and Bill that wins you a lot of games.  

Edited March 25, 2019 by DallasMac

[Bills Survivor]

Interesting stat on the tight ends.  Although as people have said, it seems like many more are selected in the second and third rounds than in the first.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Trade down and get DL, TE, edge, OT in any order you want in the first three rounds.  

[BillsMafia13]

On 3/25/2019 at 2:25 PM, DallasMac said:

They traded for Brandin Cooks, picked up Josh Gordon hoping he would return to form.  They are making attempts to improve their wide receivers but when you have Brady and Bill that wins you a lot of games.  

Which supports my original point.  Cooks was there for a year before they used him as bait for another 1st rounder.  Gordon was negligible. Does anybody think the Raiders are going to be contenders next year because they traded for AB?  Hard no

Edited March 28, 2019 by BillsMafia13

[Mr. WEO]

On ‎3‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 2:03 AM, Doc Brown said:

That pry took a lot of time.  It broke down as I'd expect although I don't agree with your conclusion when it comes to WR.  It actually shows taking a WR in the 1st round gives you the best chance of success at that position.  I'm guessing if TE was as valued a position then a lot of those 2nd and 3rd round successes would've been drafted in the 1st round.

 

If you look at the TE's taken in round 1 the last 10 years it shows that's not a position you should reach for.  Unless he's the next Travis Kelce take a similar draft grade at a different position and take your chances in round 2 and 3.

 

-Brandin Pettigrew

-Jermaine Gresham

-Tyler Eifert

-Eric Ebron

-O.J. Howard

-Evan Engram

-David Njoku

-Hayden Hurst

 

Well, every team uses the TE differently.

 

Ebron is a very good TE.  Worth a 1st. 

 

Njoku as well--look for an even better year this season. 

 

OJ Howard has 1000 yards, 11 TDs in his first 2 seasons in Tampa. 

 

Engram, on an awful Giants team, had 722 yards 64 catches and 6 TDS his rookie year.  He already has 1300 yards in 2 seasons.  That's excellent production.

 

Saying you can't ever spend a 1st  on  TE unless you know he's going to be 'the Next Travis Kelce" is really not a strong argument.  If you are going to spend a pick on an "O-lineman", it should be on a TE ready to produce an impact, like the ones listed (and dismissed by you) above.

[racketmaster]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Well, every team uses the TE differently.

 

Ebron is a very good TE.  Worth a 1st. 

 

Njoku as well--look for an even better year this season. 

 

OJ Howard has 1000 yards, 11 TDs in his first 2 seasons in Tampa. 

 

Engram, on an awful Giants team, had 722 yards 64 catches and 6 TDS his rookie year.  He already has 1300 yards in 2 seasons.  That's excellent production.

 

Saying you can't ever spend a 1st  on  TE unless you know he's going to be 'the Next Travis Kelce" is really not a strong argument.  If you are going to spend a pick on an "O-lineman", it should be on a TE ready to produce an impact, like the ones listed (and dismissed by you) above.

I agree with you that many of the recent 1st round TEs have been productive players and probably worth taking in the first round. But look at some of the TEs taken in rounds after the first:

Rob Gronkowski (2nd)

Travis Kelce (3rd)

Zach Ertz (2nd)

George Kittle (5th)

Jared Cook (3rd)

Austin Hooper (3rd)

Jimmy Graham (3rd)

Kyle Rudolph (2nd)

Vance McDonald (2nd)

Jordan Reed (3rd)

Jason Witten (3rd)

Hunter Henry (2nd)

Delanie Walker (6th)

Cameron Brate (UDFA)

Charles Clay (6th)

Jesse James (5th)

Trey Burton (UDFA)

Chris Herndon (4th)

Mark Andrews (4th)

CJ Uzomah (5th)

Ian Thomas (4th)

Antonio Gates (UDFA)

*Tyler Kroft (3rd)

 

These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top tight, unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office and their ability to locate a talented player in the middle rounds.