This data suggests waiting until 2nd and 3rd rounds on WR and TE

[BuffAlone]

15 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

 

Yes I would like the better/elite player and a better chance at hitting on that. (WR is also our biggest need) 

 

This is the second thread this month trying to show why we don't need an elite WR. Both times the OP has used an experiment set up to prove their point.

 

While I genuinely appreciate the effort, neither has swayed my opinion that an elite WR would help this offense, and Allen's development, more than anything else.

WR is not our biggest need. Daboll's offense is based in match ups. Think NE. Not seen very many elite WR's on the field with Brady over the years. Its all about match ups.We have 2 legit burners to keep the D honest, a very good slot, and an improved O-line. There is room for upgrades at every position, but WR is not the glaring hole it was 2 weeks ago. 

DT is our biggest need. We only have 3 under contract. And none are even on par with KW, let alone elite. The need/value/BPA at pick 9 is set up perfectly for us to replace Kyle. I honestly will be shocked if WR is addressed prior to round 3 with the depth on D-line available this year early on this year

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

1 minute ago, BuffAlone said:

WR is not our biggest need. Daboll's offense is based in match ups. Think NE. Not seen very many elite WR's on the field with Brady over the years. Its all about match ups.We have 2 legit burners to keep the D honest, a very good slot, and an improved O-line. There is room for upgrades at every position, but WR is not the glaring hole it was 2 weeks ago. 

DT is our biggest need. We only have 3 under contract. And none are even on par with KW, let alone elite. The need/value/BPA at pick 9 is set up perfectly for us to replace Kyle. I honestly will be shocked if WR is addressed prior to round 3 with the depth on D-line available this year early on this year

 

a 4th DT to get 40% of snaps is a good use of a top 10 pick? What about our highest paid player (Star)? Or our 3rd round pick from a season ago that everyone said was Kyle's replacement? Or a 2nd rounder we picked up during the season form a division rival who only left for personal reasons?

 

We had the worst WRs in the league last year. We signed a 30 and 29 year old with a combined one 1,000 yard season. That position will be improved but I'd be shocked if they're better than average as it stands. I'm excited about Foster's potential, but let's not assume he's a sure fire starter after a few good games.

 

 

[racketmaster]

22 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

 

Yes I would like the better/elite player and a better chance at hitting on that. (WR is also our biggest need) 

 

This is the second thread this month trying to show why we don't need an elite WR. Both times the OP has used an experiment set up to prove their point.

 

While I genuinely appreciate the effort, neither has swayed my opinion that an elite WR would help this offense, and Allen's development, more than anything else.

I understand where you are coming from and if the Bills did go WR in round 1, I would not necessarily be upset if they traded back and got extra picks. As far as running the numbers, I was probably thinking more of the TE position rather than the WR. A few weeks back there was a poster who started bringing up all the 1st round TEs and there production or lack thereof. It got me thinking about whether it would be a good idea to spend a 1st round pick on a TE. I added the WR spot in because that has been a hot topic as well. I was not trying to prove one thing or another.

 

In reality, this data is limited in that it only has 2 positions. It was very time consuming to run 2 positions and could not imagine doing every position. Running backs and quarterbacks would be fairly easy in terms of evaluating their worth (similar to evaluating the worth of receiving TEs and WRs). But evaluating top 30 or more guards, tackles, centers, DL, LBs, DBs would be more challenging. I've seen some of these things done before and some have used number of starts and others have used pro bowls for elite players. But there are flaws in using those measures and I was not sure I would even be capturing the top players unless I found a statistic or two for each position that seemed to accurately measure a player's worth.

 

If someone were able to accurately capture a player's worth for each and every position and then match their draft position, it would be much more useful. NFL teams do this because they have every player in the league graded by their scouts based on their film. With this type of information, you could see what positions would require more urgency at the top of the draft and what positions were worth waiting on. That would be really helpful as the WRs and TEs info just gives us a small glimpse but still found interesting enough to share.

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

WR is not our biggest need. Daboll's offense is based in match ups. Think NE. Not seen very many elite WR's on the field with Brady over the years. Its all about match ups.We have 2 legit burners to keep the D honest, a very good slot, and an improved O-line. There is room for upgrades at every position, but WR is not the glaring hole it was 2 weeks ago. 

DT is our biggest need. We only have 3 under contract. And none are even on par with KW, let alone elite. The need/value/BPA at pick 9 is set up perfectly for us to replace Kyle. I honestly will be shocked if WR is addressed prior to round 3 with the depth on D-line available this year early on this year

I tend to agree with you about Daboll's offense and the comparison to NE. Ultimately, I think he and the Bills regime would be just fine having a collection of solid WRs with varying skill sets to use in matchups rather than relying on an elite talent that ends up being the focus of the offense. I'm not saying the Bills would run away from elite talent at the WR position (they obviously were in the mix for Brown) but I think it would have to come without using a lot of draft and financial capital.  That's probably why the Brown deal fell apart (the trade price was low) but the amount of $ and cap dollars he required in a new deal probably turned the Bills off.

 

I totally agree with the DL, and for me edge rusher is a priority. The Bills focused heavily on the offensive side of the ball in free agency. We have an entire new offensive line and have added 2 quality WRs as well as another interesting CFL player that had been a top level WR prospect just a few years ago. We also added a quality receiving TE. We don't have a pass catching speed back but that can be added in the middle rounds. So I fully expect the Bills to go DL (best player at edge or interior) and then they may come back to offense in either the 2nd or 3rd.

[BuffAlone]

15 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

a 4th DT to get 40% of snaps is a good use of a top 10 pick? What about our highest paid player (Star)? Or our 3rd round pick from a season ago that everyone said was Kyle's replacement? Or a 2nd rounder we picked up during the season form a division rival who only left for personal reasons?

 

We had the worst WRs in the league last year. We signed a 30 and 29 year old with a combined one 1,000 yard season. That position will be improved but I'd be shocked if they're better than average as it stands. I'm excited about Foster's potential, but let's not assume he's a sure fire starter after a few good games.

 

 

Listen, what Im suggesting is drafting DT at 9. Not a guy to play 40% of snaps. We have our reserves already under contract. I'm saying we will get our starter with that pick. And let the reserves be reserves. Star is doing his job occupying blockers. What we DONT have, is a penetrating 3tech to go along with Star. Enter the draft. Very top heavy for that position early on. The value will meet the need. Perfectly.

 I'm very encouraged about Foster, but I'm not ready to say he is elite. Between him and Brown, the speed factor is there. Beasley in the slot, Zay lined up all over the place. Opens up the run game. Its all that you really need to run Daboll's scheme. Can we upgrade any of the WR's? Sure. Is there a hole there? No, there's not. Does a WR in the 1st round meet our needs compared to the value of the pick, for the overall betterment of the team? No, I don't believe so. Upgrades are great, but if you don't have a huge hole there, that's all it is..an upgrade.

We have a Hole at DT. We Need one. We could go with one outside the 1st round, but we will most likely grab a reserve worthy player, and that may not meet the value either. So, in a D-line class for the ages, with an obvious need at 3tech, we should be focusing on finding a potentially elite player at a spot of need meets value meets BPA, other than just upgrading a position that has no glaring holes. 

At the end of the day, how many WR's are worth the #9 overall pick, compared to how many D-linemen? 

 

[papazoid]

weakest starter on team.....TE

 

Hockenson will be a pro bowl TE

 

whoever else  gets picked at #9 will not make pro bowl 

 

 

[mjt328]

All of the signs are pointing to us going D-Line in the first round.  I just don't see us taking a WR that early anymore.

Based on free agency, this is starting to become a numbers game with the roster.

 

The majority of NFL teams only keep 6 wide receivers.  We may make an exception and go with 7 because of Andre Roberts being a returner.  Either way... out of that group you are only going to see 3-4 guys get significant snaps on offense (barring injury). 

-  They haven't been pursuing John Brown for two offseasons, just so he can sit the bench. 

-  You can guarantee Cole Beasley is going to be our top slot receiver and will get a bunch of targets.

-  Robert Foster earned his way into a good chunk of playing time last year.

-  Zay Jones has shown progress, and will certainly get one more season to prove himself. 

 

Drafting a WR high pushes one of these other guys down the lineup, and gets them virtually no snaps.  So either you signed guys in free agency for no reason, or you give young/developing guys no chance.  Nobody sitting in the #5 slot is going to see more than 15-20 targets on the season. 

Now, I know that some people are hugely critical of Zay Jones and have already given up on him, but I don't think the coaching staff is there yet.  Maybe he loses playing time by mid-season if he fails to get better.  But if you draft a rookie at #9, then you are basically signaling Jone's  time in Buffalo is already over.

 

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

6 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

Listen, what Im suggesting is drafting DT at 9. Not a guy to play 40% of snaps. We have our reserves already under contract. I'm saying we will get our starter with that pick. And let the reserves be reserves. Star is doing his job occupying blockers. What we DONT have, is a penetrating 3tech to go along with Star. Enter the draft. Very top heavy for that position early on. The value will meet the need. Perfectly.

 I'm very encouraged about Foster, but I'm not ready to say he is elite. Between him and Brown, the speed factor is there. Beasley in the slot, Zay lined up all over the place. Opens up the run game. Its all that you really need to run Daboll's scheme. Can we upgrade any of the WR's? Sure. Is there a hole there? No, there's not. Does a WR in the 1st round meet our needs compared to the value of the pick, for the overall betterment of the team? No, I don't believe so. Upgrades are great, but if you don't have a huge hole there, that's all it is..an upgrade.

We have a Hole at DT. We Need one. We could go with one outside the 1st round, but we will most likely grab a reserve worthy player, and that may not meet the value either. So, in a D-line class for the ages, with an obvious need at 3tech, we should be focusing on finding a potentially elite player at a spot of need meets value meets BPA, other than just upgrading a position that has no glaring holes. 

At the end of the day, how many WR's are worth the #9 overall pick, compared to how many D-linemen? 

 

 

This is just a difference of opinion. Right now we have zero elite WR. I would prefer we have 3. Was KC ok with having Tyreek? No they shelled out big money for Sammy. Aside from what you think of him/his contract they weren’t satisfied with an all-pro WR and TE as their weapons. 

 

As for DT, you can absolutely get a 3 tech from a non top 10 pick, free agency (Richardson 1 year 9mil), or trade (Dareus). Gerald McCoy is still out there as a trade possibility and Jerry Tillery graded out better as a pass rusher than Oliver. 

 

Even if we add a “starter” at DT odds are he won’t be playing more than 60% of snaps. McDermott runs a rotation on the D line. I’ve seen many poster cite a stat where all DT from last year played around 40% of snaps. 

[BuffAlone]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

All of the signs are pointing to us going D-Line in the first round.  I just don't see us taking a WR that early anymore.

Based on free agency, this is starting to become a numbers game with the roster.

 

The majority of NFL teams only keep 6 wide receivers.  We may make an exception and go with 7 because of Andre Roberts being a returner.  Either way... out of that group you are only going to see 3-4 guys get significant snaps on offense (barring injury). 

-  They haven't been pursuing John Brown for two offseasons, just so he can sit the bench. 

-  You can guarantee Cole Beasley is going to be our top slot receiver and will get a bunch of targets.

-  Robert Foster earned his way into a good chunk of playing time last year.

-  Zay Jones has shown progress, and will certainly get one more season to prove himself. 

 

Drafting a WR high pushes one of these other guys down the lineup, and gets them virtually no snaps.  So either you signed guys in free agency for no reason, or you give young/developing guys no chance.  Nobody sitting in the #5 slot is going to see more than 15-20 targets on the season. 

Now, I know that some people are hugely critical of Zay Jones and have already given up on him, but I don't think the coaching staff is there yet.  Maybe he loses playing time by mid-season if he fails to get better.  But if you draft a rookie at #9, then you are basically signaling Jone's  time in Buffalo is already over.

 

 

Not to mention, very few rookie WR's step onto the field and make immediate impacts. 

[BillsFan17]

34 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

a 4th DT to get 40% of snaps is a good use of a top 10 pick? What about our highest paid player (Star)? Or our 3rd round pick from a season ago that everyone said was Kyle's replacement? Or a 2nd rounder we picked up during the season form a division rival who only left for personal reasons?

 

We had the worst WRs in the league last year. We signed a 30 and 29 year old with a combined one 1,000 yard season. That position will be improved but I'd be shocked if they're better than average as it stands. I'm excited about Foster's potential, but let's not assume he's a sure fire starter after a few good games.

 

 

Why are you assuming that player only plays 40% of the snaps? Also we have two DTs on in the field usually, and players like Oliver can move around and be utilized in different fashions. Pigeon holing a position Buffalo still needs to improve on...

 

Buffalo was 16th in yards against on the ground, and tied for 25th in TDs against on the ground. 

 

Buffalo was also middle of the pack in sacks. All while having the same three guys you mentioned.

 

Star- overpaid and sucks

Phillips- a nice mid season pickup, but certainly not someone who stops us from drafting a superior talent.

Dirty Harry- A third rounder who really didnt do much of anything. A day three pick for a reason.

 

No one there stops me from taking a highly rated DT like Oliver.

[BuffAlone]

7 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

This is just a difference of opinion. Right now we have zero elite WR. I would prefer we have 3. Was KC ok with having Tyreek? No they shelled out big money for Sammy. Aside from what you think of him/his contract they weren’t satisfied with an all-pro WR and TE as their weapons. 

 

As for DT, you can absolutely get a 3 tech from a non top 10 pick, free agency (Richardson 1 year 9mil), or trade (Dareus). Gerald McCoy is still out there as a trade possibility and Jerry Tillery graded out better as a pass rusher than Oliver. 

 

Even if we add a “starter” at DT odds are he won’t be playing more than 60% of snaps. McDermott runs a rotation on the D line. I’ve seen many poster cite a stat where all DT from last year played around 40% of snaps. 

Kyle played 65% of snaps last year. Why? He was as close to an elite player as we had. We no longer have that production. It needs replaced. Nobody on our roster is replacing that. Nobody on our roster is CAPABLE of replacing that. Its a need. More so than WR. JMO

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Just now, BillsFan17 said:

Why are you assuming that player only plays 40% of the snaps? Also we have two DTs on in the field usually, and players like Oliver can move around and be utilized in different fashions. Pigeon holing a position Buffalo still needs to improve on...

 

Buffalo was 16th in yards against on the ground, and tied for 25th in TDs against on the ground. 

 

Buffalo was also middle of the pack in sacks. All while having the same three guys you mentioned.

 

Star- overpaid and sucks

Phillips- a nice mid season pickup, but certainly not someone who stops us from drafting a superior talent.

Dirty Harry- A third rounder who really didnt do much of anything. A day three pick for a reason.

 

No one there stops me from taking a highly rated DT like Oliver.

 

Oliver was rated worse at pass rushing than Tillery on both 0 tech and 3 tech snaps. 

 

Star has the worst non-QB contract in the league. We can’t really even cut him for two more years after this. That’s why he’s going to get snaps. He’s the highest paid player on the team. 

 

McDermott runs a rotation Dline and all DTs last year got 40% of snaps or so I’ve heard from other posters here. 

 

Harrison Phillips is Kyle Williams replacement. Everyone loved the pick now they’re ready to draft a DT at 9 one year later?

[FeelingOnYouboty]

KAHALE WARRING

KAHALE WARRING
KAHALE WARRING
KAHALE WARRING
KAHALE WARRING

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

Kyle played 65% of snaps last year. Why? He was as close to an elite player as we had. We no longer have that production. It needs replaced. Nobody on our roster is replacing that. Nobody on our roster is CAPABLE of replacing that. Its a need. More so than WR. JMO

 

This is news to me. I was going by other posters who said all DTs last year played around 40%, my mistake.

 

Although those posters were trying to make the case FOR drafting a DT at 9. 

[BigBuff423]

I've been banging the table for years for this exact philosophy and for many of the reasons already stated. WR and TE are not "move the needle" type of positions and some of the best long-term WRs and TEs are those in the middle rounds: 3rd / 4th - especially TE! Bills need to build the lines, and then go skill positions. I think Beane and McD are doing that and working it to their advantage - since they got their QB last year. 

[papazoid]

WR has the highest first round bust rate of any position by far.

 

the last 3 years has been horrible

 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/where-have-the-wideouts-gone-explaining-the-recent-bust-rate-for-first-round-wrs/

 

 

[BuffAlone]

1 minute ago, Chemical said:

 

This is news to me. I was going by other posters who said all DTs last year played around 40%, my mistake.

 

Although those posters were trying to make the case FOR drafting a DT at 9. 

That is according to pff. He played 64.69 % of last years snaps

[nucci]

or you could just pick the players you think are the best that will help your team win.

[Simon Says]

All your numbers are giving me a headache, but I'll ask a question. Did you note  how many WRs and TEs were PICKED  in each round? Since MORE TEs are likely drafted in the  3rd than the first, why are you so  surprised that more of the "top"  or "elite" TEs came from the 3rd? Did you calculate the % of ERs or TEs drafted in a particular  round are consider "top" or "elite"? i.e.you numbers  indicate which round a 'top" or "elite" ERE/;TE is picked in....take into consideration something like ";what % or WR's  taken in the 2nd round will eome "top"or 'elite"

[BillsFan17]

Just now, Chemical said:

 

Oliver was rated worse at pass rushing than Tillery on both 0 tech and 3 tech snaps. 

 

Star has the worst non-QB contract in the league. We can’t really even cut him for two more years after this. That’s why he’s going to get snaps. He’s the highest paid player on the team. 

 

McDermott runs a rotation Dline and all DTs last year got 40% of snaps or so I’ve heard from other posters here. 

 

Harrison Phillips is Kyle Williams replacement. Everyone loved the pick now they’re ready to draft a DT at 9 one year later?

Oliver was also in a far worse scheme as laid out recently by PFF. Also

Oliver-32 GP 13.5 sacks 53 TFL 122 solo tackles

Tillery- 42 GP 12.5 sacks 23 TFL 70 solo tackles 

So, you can try an convince your self Tillery brings more to the table, but clearly he doesnt.

 

As far as rotation, that would be predicated on context, would it not? Not some sort of fixated number.

-What down is it? What package/formation is the offense using? How fresh are the bodies? Etc...

 

As far as Star, the guy is a limited at best zero tech and is the perfect example of your argument... doing something stupid and rash because you have a need and not assessing the value. Buffalo has just given up 18 rushing TDs the year prior. They made a knee jerk reaction trying to address a desperate need.

 

Moreover, loving a third rounder, at a position that features more than one of them at a time on the field, and more than likely a rotation of some nature, doesnt mean you cant improve there

 

You said yourself, you really like Foster and how he played at the end of the year, and you still want to improve at the position, all the while Foster showing a lot more than Phillips did.

 

All-in-all there just isnt a WR in this class that has the same grade/value at nine as DL does.

12 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

I've been banging the table for years for this exact philosophy and for many of the reasons already stated. WR and TE are not "move the needle" type of positions and some of the best long-term WRs and TEs are those in the middle rounds: 3rd / 4th - especially TE! Bills need to build the lines, and then go skill positions. I think Beane and McD are doing that and working it to their advantage - since they got their QB last year. 

If anything, the original post shows that the third and fourth rounds are probably the worst rounds for WR