Bing Bong Posted March 27, 2019 Posted March 27, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: The onside kick has a success rate of 25%. You mention the Saints surprise onside kick. Yet we are talking about an option of intend taking a 4th and 15 as a rule change----which obviously has nothing at all to do with the Saint decision to open a half with an onside kick. What on Earth is your point?? That your onside kick success rates includes surprise kicks. Which are 60% successful. If we are talking about a known onside kick situation, it's not 25%. It's much less. That 25% is weighted by surprise kicks.. such as Colts Saints SB. That kick is.. guess what.. an onside kick, just one of many surprise onside kicks factored into your number. Please remove them. We want to compare known onside kick situations with 4th and 15 situations. Because.. and here's the catch.. you know the other team has to get a first down. Just like you know the other team needs an onside kick. Known onside kicks aren't 25%. Most of the successful onside kicks are surprise onside kicks! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onside_kick http://www.slate.com/id/2280272/pagenum/all "An onside kick is considered successful if the kicking team regains the ball. Between 2001 and 2010, surprise onside kicks were successful 60% of the time, while expected onside kicks were successful less than 20% of the time." it's historically far less than 25%. It's 6% since kickoff rule changes. Now remember: this number has surprise onside kicks removed! Edited March 27, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
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