Do you think all these signings point to the Bills trading back into the bottom of the first round?

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Beans wasn't here for the Jones and Dawkins trades, but neither of those required a major sacrifice. I don't doubt they'd trade up. I doubt they trade up and give up high round picks. 

 

And as I said above, Beane's trades last year had been engineered to bring in a QB. That's the exception for the generaly rule about trading away high picks. You can do it to get a QB if your team doesn't have a franchise guy. It's a desperate move, but your team has a desperate need. And yeah they traded up for Edmunds too but they seem to have done that in deep surprise that he was available that late and because they still had two thirds and were willing to give up one of them.  

 

This year if they give up a third, it won't be an "extra" third. They only have one.

 

We'll see, but this administration has built through smart, smart methods. They've made mistakes, but they've used smart methods, and the smart teams don't trade up and give away higher pick, except if trading for a QB. 

 

The Thaler and Massey study (and many more) explain why, in long and painful detail.

 

 

Tbh it’s great you look in studies but Beane has never once said he looks at that stuff. I do think analytics drive them Moreso than previous regimes. 

 

Yes the Bills only have 1 3rd, but they have 2 4th and 2 5th and an extra 7th. So in your theories, would it be okay if the Bills traded 40, the higher 4th, and the higher 5th because they have extras?

[SoTier]

17 hours ago, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

 

My view is that the Bills are signing so many FAs this off season because the current team is virtually devoid of offensive talent and needs immediate upgrading if Allen is going to have any chance to develop into a good NFL QB.   If Allen busts, McDermott and Beane are history, so they have to do everything they can to put significantly better pieces around him ASAP so they can't afford to wait 2 or 3 years for rookies to develop.   Most of the Bills extra draft picks are Day 3 picks IIRC which are far more likely to not make the team anyway.  More importantly, I expect that several of the Bills current players, including possibly some who are currently penciled in as starters, won't make the 2019 final roster.  It's also possible that not all of the FA signees stick.  I think that another poster in a thread last week described the Bills' FA signings as Beane throwing crap at a wall and seeing what sticks, which may be a good analogy.

 

Since this regime has shown a propensity to trade up for certain players, I would not be surprised if they did so again but I think that's not because they signed a bunch of FAs to fill their needs but because they decide they have to have Player X whatever the cost.

Edited March 23, 2019 by SoTier

[Dr. Who]

50 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

My view is that the Bills are signing so many FAs this off season because the current team is virtually devoid of offensive talent and needs immediate upgrading if Allen is going to have any chance to develop into a good NFL QB.   If Allen busts, McDermott and Beane are history, so they have to do everything they can to put significantly better pieces around him ASAP so they can't afford to wait 2 or 3 years for rookies to develop.   Most of the Bills extra draft picks are Day 3 picks IIRC which are far more likely to not make the team anyway.  More importantly, I expect that several of the Bills current players, including possibly some who are currently penciled in as starters, won't make the 2019 final roster.  It's also possible that not all of the FA signees stick.  I think that another poster in a thread last week described the Bills' FA signings as Beane throwing crap at a wall and seeing what sticks, which may be a good analogy.

 

Since this regime has shown a propensity to trade up for certain players, I would not be surprised if they did so again but I think that's not because they signed a bunch of FAs to fill their needs but because they decide they have to have Player X whatever the cost.

This is more or less the "they have no plan and are panicking" narrative. I think the team has somewhat more talent than you credit. I also think that while one can certainly disagree with individual decisions or even the basic strategy, it's disingenuous to claim Beane and McDermott are not proceeding along what they perceive as a rational plan.

[SoTier]

5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

This is more or less the "they have no plan and are panicking" narrative. I think the team has somewhat more talent than you credit. I also think that while one can certainly disagree with individual decisions or even the basic strategy, it's disingenuous to claim Beane and McDermott are not proceeding along what they perceive as a rational plan.

 

How rational is it to attempt to field an offense without a single WR without enough speed to stretch the field, which was the Bills WR corps in both 2017 and most of 2018 until Robert Foster got a chance to play?

How rational is it to replace a better than average center, a Pro Bowl left guard, and a better than average left tackle with bottom feeder centers and guards and an inexperienced left tackle and expect to get decent offensive performance from them?

How rational is it to draft a blue chip QB prospect and expect him to perform without decent protection and decent WRs?

How rational is it to keep Nathan Peterman on the roster as even a backup QB when it had to be clear that he simply couldn't do the job?  How rational is it to have waited around for a month waiting for Derek Anderson to finish his golf tourney while keeping Peterman as Allen's backup?

 

At best McDermott and Beane spent two seasons doing OTJ training.   Maybe they've learned enough to have success but I'll believe that when they actually have success.

[OldTimer1960]

10 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

 

i don't think shaq will ever be an all around end especially that of a 19th picky

 

 

Michael Griffin, Jeff Otah, Jeremy Maclin, Sean Weatherspoon, Prince Amukamara, Shea McLellin, Justin Pugh, Ja’Wuan James, Cameron Erving, Shaq Lawson.

 

Those are the last 10 19th overall picks through 2016 (long enough ago for those picks to give a feel for their career) - Shaq Lawson fits in that list well.  Griffin, Maclin, Pugh and James have been good multi-year starters with Griffin likely the best.  Otah, Weatherspoon haven’t had success, McLellin has been ok, but no better than Lawson. 

 

My my point is that we all get enamored with the draft prospects of the current year and it is easy to think that all top round picks should be dominant players, but that is simply waaay overestimating the impacts that you can really expect from first round picks.  Be happy if you can find a good long-term starter.

[billsredneck1]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 

Michael Griffin, Jeff Otah, Jeremy Maclin, Sean Weatherspoon, Prince Amukamara, Shea McLellin, Justin Pugh, Ja’Wuan James, Cameron Erving, Shaq Lawson.

 

Those are the last 10 19th overall picks through 2016 (long enough ago for those picks to give a feel for their career) - Shaq Lawson fits in that list well.  Griffin, Maclin, Pugh and James have been good multi-year starters with Griffin likely the best.  Otah, Weatherspoon haven’t had success, McLellin has been ok, but no better than Lawson. 

 

My my point is that we all get enamored with the draft prospects of the current year and it is easy to think that all top round picks should be dominant players, but that is simply waaay overestimating the impacts that you can really expect from first round picks.  Be happy if you can find a good long-term starter.

different positions/different eras...point?  mine is that he is expendable at this point in time because he is not the end we need or should be looking for. if we can draft good at that spot and possibly get something for him now, i think that bear's consideration.

 

btw, i'm not anti shaq,  but we need a gordon/bosa combo.  i'd rather they went with oliver and trade shaq to maybe get a couple of edges for the future...

or go edges high this draft and kick shaq inside for this year. they can rotate murphy and lorax or play both at the same time, all while introducing sweat and ximines behind hughes and murphy.

Edited March 24, 2019 by billsredneck1

[RPbillsfan]

On 3/22/2019 at 2:15 PM, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

I think trade back into the bottom of the first round it would require either

 

2019 2nd and 2020 1st, could get Maybe as high as Minnesota, Tennessee or Seattle

 

or

 

trade both 4th round picks for a 3rd, then trade higher 3rd and 2nd to get back to late 1st possibly Oakland, Philadelphia or KC.

 

If the Bills do trade up I could see them taking TJ Hockenson at 9 and get the Notre Dame DT Tillery at the back end of the 1st and get a future RB in round 3.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

9 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

different positions/different eras...point?  mine is that he is expendable at this point in time because he is not the end we need or should be looking for. if we can draft good at that spot and possibly get something for him now, i think that bear's consideration.

 

btw, i'm not anti shaq,  but we need a gordon/bosa combo.  i'd rather they went with oliver and trade shaq to maybe get a couple of edges for the future...

or go edges high this draft and kick shaq inside for this year. they can rotate murphy and lorax or play both at the same time, all while introducing sweat and ximines behind hughes and murphy.

My point was that 19th pick in the first round should not be expected to be a star.  Sure, you *hope* to get a great player there, but finding a good long term starter should be the goal and that isn't guaranteed, either as the list of players picked there shows.

I am not saying that Lawson is great, but I thought that he played pretty well last year in the opportunities that he had.  If he develops into a strong run defender who can produce 6-8 sacks per year, then I believe that would not be a disappointment based on his draft position.

[Jslach]

I could see them taking Oliver or Taylor and trading back into the first and grabbing byron murphy(cb),

Clelin ferrell(edge) or Josh jacobs(rb)

[KRT88]

On 3/22/2019 at 5:18 PM, The Bills Blog said:

Why would we trade back? Wouldn't these signings more likely suggest a trade up?

Why is the world go we want to trade up again and give away more picks? 

 

10 picks creates flexibility but create more competition at key positions. 

[Dr. Who]

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

How rational is it to attempt to field an offense without a single WR without enough speed to stretch the field, which was the Bills WR corps in both 2017 and most of 2018 until Robert Foster got a chance to play?

How rational is it to replace a better than average center, a Pro Bowl left guard, and a better than average left tackle with bottom feeder centers and guards and an inexperienced left tackle and expect to get decent offensive performance from them?

How rational is it to draft a blue chip QB prospect and expect him to perform without decent protection and decent WRs?

How rational is it to keep Nathan Peterman on the roster as even a backup QB when it had to be clear that he simply couldn't do the job?  How rational is it to have waited around for a month waiting for Derek Anderson to finish his golf tourney while keeping Peterman as Allen's backup?

 

At best McDermott and Beane spent two seasons doing OTJ training.   Maybe they've learned enough to have success but I'll believe that when they actually have success.

C'mon. I don't think a single person defends the quality of personnel that was on the team last year, especially on offense. It was a tear down, necessary or not. Nearly every complaint you just lodged above has been echoed by many. I have made the same charges, so stop with the vehemence as if claiming Beane and McDermott have a plan is equivalent to justifying all their past actions. One can disagree with much and still recognize that a decision to radically alter cap management and infuse talent this year does not amount to throwing excrement against the wall and haphazardly hoping for the best.

Edited March 24, 2019 by Dr. Who

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

C'mon. I don't think a single person defends the quality of personnel that was on the team last year, especially on offense. It was a tear down, necessary or not. Nearly every complaint you just lodged above has been echoed by many. I have made the same charges, so stop with the vehemence as if claiming Beane and McDermott have a plan is equivalent to justifying all their past actions. One can disagree with much and still recognize that a decision to radically alter cap management and infuse talent this year does not amount to throwing excrement against the wall and haphazardly hoping for the best.

the strategy  is in place and has been.

 This is McBeanes first draft together.
I think they are already much improved and executing the plan. Focusing on offense so hard i awesome to me ! 

They do not have to bring in elite players yet. and they are cycling through enough via FA on smart deals they might well find a viable starter or 5-6

 and have filled in mightily as depth in key offensive positions.

and they got Morse : )

[Dr. Who]

32 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

the strategy  is in place and has been.

 This is McBeanes first draft together.
I think they are already much improved and executing the plan. Focusing on offense so hard i awesome to me ! 

They do not have to bring in elite players yet. and they are cycling through enough via FA on smart deals they might well find a viable starter or 5-6

 and have filled in mightily as depth in key offensive positions.

and they got Morse : )

I think they bumbled Josh Allen's rollout. I don't think they imagined he would start that early. A vet like Anderson (McCarron isn't that) should have been there from the get go. In the end, however, Allen may be better for having faced that adversity. It might seem almost unreal to have a credible line in front of him and wrs who are NFL caliber and capable of making plays for their qb. I am certainly encouraged by where the team is now, so I don't agree with the view that Beane is incompetent.

[Tcali]

On 3/22/2019 at 2:15 PM, njbuff said:

The Bills are signing FA's at a record pace for this franchise.

 

Who would be the target trading back into the bottom of the first round?

 

Plus these signings mean they really can't keep all 10 picks.

 

What do you think?

makes sense to me

[Just Joshin']

I would now to select a TE before NE can do so.

 

 

[Doc]

21 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

I would now to select a TE before NE can do so.

 

LOL!  I was just saying this to my son early.  That is, that the Bills should trade back into the first right before the Cheaters and take the best remaining TE.

[Magnum Force]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

LOL!  I was just saying this to my son early.  That is, that the Bills should trade back into the first right before the Cheaters and take the best remaining TE.

This is such a tough draft....I mean there are so many appealing options.  I would love Hockenson and if the mock draft experts are right, he will be a top 15 pick maybe top 10.  Oliver would be a great pick also as would Devin White, Jawaan Taylor Jonah Williams,, DK Metcalfe etc ….this is going to be an exciting draft...but so was last years.  Can't wait.  

Edited March 25, 2019 by Magnum Force

[3rdand12]

13 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think they bumbled Josh Allen's rollout. I don't think they imagined he would start that early. A vet like Anderson (McCarron isn't that) should have been there from the get go. In the end, however, Allen may be better for having faced that adversity. It might seem almost unreal to have a credible line in front of him and wrs who are NFL caliber and capable of making plays for their qb. I am certainly encouraged by where the team is now, so I don't agree with the view that Beane is incompetent.

agreed about the QB situation last year

[Thurman#1]

On 3/23/2019 at 6:25 AM, gonzo1105 said:

I could see something like the Bills take BPA at 9 no matter what position it is, and then try to trade up to like 27-31 to grab another need position while only sacrificing a pick or two. If they move up any higher then that range its gonna start to cost a lot more.

 

 

My guess is they stay at #9 and then stay at #40, maybe moving up 4 or 5 spots to #35 or #36 if they see a major bargain.

 

If they move back from #9 and pick up a third or so, that would make it far more likely that they could move up for a second 1st-rounder by giving away the pick they just acquired, since they'd still have picks in all rounds.

 

There's no reason they couldn't use all 10 picks if they want. No problem for money or roster space. What they could also do is if they want to get rid of one of their 4ths, they could trade it away for a 3rd next year or a 4th next year and another lower-round pick this year or next.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/23/2019 at 11:53 PM, gonzo1105 said:

 

Tbh it’s great you look in studies but Beane has never once said he looks at that stuff. I do think analytics drive them Moreso than previous regimes. 

 

Yes the Bills only have 1 3rd, but they have 2 4th and 2 5th and an extra 7th. So in your theories, would it be okay if the Bills traded 40, the higher 4th, and the higher 5th because they have extras?

 

 

He hasn't had to say he has looked at those studies. He's operated by the rules the studies suggest, both here and in his previous job in Carolina. I think it's fair to say that every single personnel guy in the league reads those ... maybe not every word, but they know all about this Doesn't mean everyone goes by them of course. In fact, pllenty of folks ignore them, especially if they're on the hot seat or if they let their emotions run their picks and fall in love with somebody. It happens an awful lot.

 

Beans didn't have to acquire a ton of draft capital to trade up for QB. Could've traded away 2019's first and second or something like it. Instead he suffered the immediate pain of trading away a lot of guys for picks so he wouldn't have to do what the studies say you shouldn't.

 

As for your question, are you asking if they would trade the higher 4th and the 5th to move up from #40 to the first? Is that right? If that is what you're asking, they would be unlikely to be able to make that trade. Assuming they were trading up from #40 to #30, that deal would give the Bills a 20% advantage on the trade, roughly, 120 points versus 100. If it's the Bills calling, to move up, they're more likely to have to give up extra than to get a bargain.

 

More, if they get that deal, I personally wouldn't do it anyway. What the studies say is that GMs think they're smarter than they are. Meaning the best way to maximize your draft capital, especially over the long run is to maximize draft picks any way you can and take more shots rather than trust your judgment and give away picks to try to  move up. And that doing so doesn't produce a small advantage, it makes you much more likely to be a successful drafter. I said it somewhere just above, but think about Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller and Matt Milano. Those are three of our fourth and fifth rounders the last couple of years. 

 

Again, I doubt they could make that trade up giving up that little. But if they did, and could leave themselves a pick in every round, they might well not worry about giving up those "extra" picks.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Thurman#1