Rotoworld: Bills draft needs & 7 round mock

[Kelly the Dog]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I see where that thought process comes from because they've done that in recent drafts..........but where do they need "immediate starters"?

 

 

 

TE, OG (OT if Dawkins becomes OG), DT, CB and EDGE if Murphy can't stay healthy. Sure we have players that can start but all of those “starters” should be number twos on a playoff team. 

 

Granted, IF, say, Johnson stays healthy AND lives up to his potential AND plays solid in real games for long stretches, he could be off the list but we can't bet on it. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/draft-analysis/nfl-draft-needs-bills

 

Not earth shattering, but worth a look at this slow time. 

I keep seeing the failed first rounder penciled in over our UDFA CB that was lights out.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I see where that thought process comes from because they've done that in recent drafts..........but where do they need "immediate starters"?

 

Maybe they will just use the high volume of picks to draft BPA's who can come in and kick these 2019 "tomato can" UFA's over and win those jobs in the next two seasons.

 

 

I think they absolutely need one at TE. I also think that they could use an elite receiver, an LT better than Dawkins (who isn't that good), and arguably a pass rushing DE (unless you're wedded to a Murphy/Shaq combo).  And of course ... DT, where they're currently relying on three guys who generated low-to-minimal production last season. 

Edited March 20, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Dr. Who]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I am not too flexible in the first round...........my philosophy is you use round 1 to fill the elite positions...........if you don't you end up regretting it.

 

I'm not a big believer in the idea of using "but he's only the second best DE/LT/CB/WR" as a rationale to not draft a player at an elite position............after all Wilkins could be the 4th or 5th best DT in the opinion of some.........each player has to be viewed on their own individual merit.

 

And of course you can find DT's who can play the run in UFA......in the draft......in UDFA........even on the street in-season from time to time.

 

On the DL in round 1 it's all about pass rush.   (Rationalizing a reach based on secondary skills like run D is how the Bills ended up with Shaq.)

 

After QB play the only thing more important to your team is getting to the opposing QB.

 

FWIW I did advocate for the Bills selecting Aaron Donald with their first pick in 2014..........so it's not just a DT bias.........I was just certain he was going to be a great pass rusher and would push for double digit sacks as a rookie.

 

I don't see anywhere near that certainty of pass rush potential with any of these DT's.

 

Who is your preference for the pick at #9? I think Beane has positioned himself to go in numerous directions. I like Oliver, because I think he can be a disruptive DT, but if you think he's too small and will get pushed around, that's a reason to back off. A fella like Dillard who could end up being a quality LT makes sense, especially if you think Dawkins might be a superlative LG. I don't see a WR at #9, mainly because DK seems too risky there. Bosa and Allen will be gone early, so where's the edge that early? I think our cb situation is good enough you don't expend a first there.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I see where that thought process comes from because they've done that in recent drafts..........but where do they need "immediate starters"?

 

Maybe they will just use the high volume of picks to draft BPA's who can come in and kick these 2019 "tomato can" UFA's over and win those jobs in the next two seasons.

 

 

My guess on the 4 “immediate starter types” (not necessarily (immediate starters), a DT, TE, WR (year 1) and an OL/DE/RB (all a year away from needing new starters). 

 

Something like:

- Oliver

- Irv smith

- Kelvin Harmon

- Devin Singletary

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

TE, OG (OT if Dawkins becomes OG), DT, CB and EDGE if Murphy can't stay healthy. Sure we have players that can start but all of those “starters” should be number twos on a playoff team. 

 

Granted, IF, say, Johnson stays healthy AND lives up to his potential AND plays solid in real games for long stretches, he could be off the list but we can't bet on it. 

 

 

Ok yeah.......I just see that as needing better players at those positions though.

 

Drafting for need I see more as Shaq and Ragnuts.......where the team thinks they have nothing really viable at those positions.

 

My hope would be that the high volume of action in UFA can allow the team to draft with a clear head rather than looking for those off-the-bus-starters.

 

Like to see them get that Yannick Ngakoue type when the time is right rather than reaching early for a Shaq.

 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Maybe the guy had a family situation that made him pick Houston, but I’m weary of guys who were 5 star recruits out of high school and don’t challenge themselves against the best competition.  

 

Spot on: Oliver's brother went to Houston, and Oliver followed him. It's a cool story, actually. He turned down some major offers to do so. Says something good about the kid's character, if you ask me. 

[Alphadawg7]

We wont be drafting a DT at 9.  I do think they could target Simmons in the 2nd or possible small trade up from our 2nd to get him.  But they wont take DT at 9 IMO.  

 

Beane is going to first try and trade down.  If not successful, I believe its going to be Edge, DK, or TJ at the 9th pick and I suspect it may become more clear which way as the draft nears.

 

Beane invested a good pick in Harrison to literally to succeed Kyle.  And he resigned Jordan for competition.  Beane is going to add another DT through FA and/or draft without question, but I dont feel like he is as "panicked" about the DT position as some posters seem to think he will be.  When he makes his board, I believe EDGE and a weapon or OL for Allen will have higher favor with the 9th pick.  

 

I have a pretty good track record with these feelings too, check my post history about these kinds of things last year even.  Some examples of what I kept saying all during the CFB season and offseason leading up to the draft where everyone kept saying I was crazy. 

• Baker would be one of first 2 QBs taken and was the best QB prospect in the draft when people kept telling me he wouldn't go higher than the 2nd
• Giants would not take a QB at 2
• Broncos would not take a QB at 5
• We do not need to get into the top 5 to get a QB as only 2 would go there
• Rosen would be the 4th or 5th QB taken

None of that means I am right here!  But I made those opinions last year based on both what I saw from the players, but also what I knew about the GMs in some of those cases above.  I try and pay attention to the GM...not mocks, not rankings, not media, not Kiper, not fan opinion, etc.  

 

For example, I knew Elway was not going to draft a QB after he signed Keenum even though most said no way.  He won a SB with terrible QB play and great D in 2015.  I kept saying he thinks if he can rebuild the D so he can win with Keenum.  So I was confident he was going to take a defensive player at 5.  Same with Giants, they made it know they were going to commit to Eli and wanted to get him some help.  So again I was confident he was going to go after Barkley if Browns didnt take him #1 overall.  

 

This year, I feel in tune with Beane.  While people have been freaking out throughout the year, I (and others as well) kept saying what the plan was and what Beane would do.  And he's literally done everything we kept saying he would do, even explore guys like Hunt and Brown.  And based on what I hear from him and seen from him, I think they are more comfortable overall with the D than some people believe.  I also think he is more optimistic about Harrison and Jordan than people believe.  

 

So he wont feel pressure to go DT unless they truly believe that player will make the biggest impact with the 9th pick.  But I think Beane is going to see an EDGE, a weapon for Josh or more protection for Josh as a player who will have the potential to make a bigger overall impact at the 9th pick.  Oliver and Wilkins are no slam dunks and are getting a bit over exaggerated.  They are not on the same level of prospect grade as Quinnen who will go top 5.  

 

I will be fine if we do draft a DT at 9, no issues with the move.  This is strictly my opinion on what I think Beane will do at the 9th pick ONLY.  Not saying we wont add DT's, just saying I think it wont be with the 9th pick.  

Edited March 20, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think they absolutely need one at TE. I also think that they could use an elite receiver, an LT better than Dawkins (who isn't that good), and arguably a pass rushing DE (unless you're wedded to a Murphy/Shaq combo).  And of course ... DT, where they're currently relying on three guys who generated low-to-minimal production last season. 

 

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My guess on the 4 “immediate starter types” (not necessarily (immediate starters), a DT, TE, WR (year 1) and an OL/DE/RB (all a year away from needing new starters). 

 

Something like:

- Oliver

- Irv smith

- Kelvin Harmon

- Devin Singletary

 

I definitely agree with you guys.........LOTS of room to improve.........that's why it wouldn't surprise me to see them use all of those 10 draft picks.   I could easily squeeze a good dozen rookies into the 53 with no problem.   

 

I'd hope they draft 2 TE in mid rounds..........wouldn't surprise me to see a 4th round TE come in and by midseason be starting ahead of the guys they have now.

 

 

 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

This Oliver v Wilkins debate is boring me now

 

Give me T.J. Hockenson please

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

This Oliver v Wilkins debate is boring me now

 

Give me T.J. Hockenson please

 

Both DTs will be on the board at 9.  Bills will draft neither

[RyanC883]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Both DTs will be on the board at 9.  Bills will draft neither

 

it will be the top CB available. 

[KOKBILLS]

I like Wilkins...I'm not sure I like him at #9...But I like him...

 

I would absolutely HATE that Mock though...It's freaking awful...?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I am not too flexible in the first round...........my philosophy is you use round 1 to fill the elite positions...........if you don't you end up regretting it.

 

I'm not a big believer in the idea of using "but he's only the second best DE/LT/CB/WR" as a rationale to not draft a player at an elite position............after all Wilkins could be the 4th or 5th best DT in the opinion of some.........each player has to be viewed on their own individual merit.

 

And of course you can find DT's who can play the run in UFA......in the draft......in UDFA........even on the street in-season from time to time.

 

On the DL in round 1 it's all about pass rush.   (Rationalizing a reach based on secondary skills like run D is how the Bills ended up with Shaq.)

 

After QB play the only thing more important to your team is getting to the opposing QB.

 

FWIW I did advocate for the Bills selecting Aaron Donald with their first pick in 2014..........so it's not just a DT bias.........I was just certain he was going to be a great pass rusher and would push for double digit sacks as a rookie.

 

I don't see anywhere near that certainty of pass rush potential with any of these DT's.

 

 

I disagree, but your position is perfectly reasonable.  I think that was essentially the Doug Whaley school of thought in fact, and I really liked Doug Whaley.  

 

All the same (and ironically), I see Shaq as the reason that philosophy fails.  Shaq was the top DE on the board, and a lot of it had to do with his pass rushing ability.  I think saying that we drafted him because of his run defense is a little revisionist. But in any event, he is what happens when you reach for that "elite" position.  You end up using a valuable pick on a very run of the mill player.  I'd rather have the best guard than a pass rusher that gets me 7 sacks in the season.  

 

As far as Wilkins, a lot of the reason I like him is need.  And I know, I know, you should never draft for need.  But it's human nature.  

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Maybe the guy had a family situation that made him pick Houston, but I’m weary of guys who were 5 star recruits out of high school and don’t challenge themselves against the best competition.  

He wanted to play on the same team as his older brother.  Houston Cougars it is.

[John from Riverside]

I like the 1st two picks

 

I think when we get to rounds 3 and 4 we need to look at RB and TE......

 

I am in the trade down group but that option is not offered here......Christian WIlkins has all the makings of a stud in the middle of that D Line.......

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I disagree, but your position is perfectly reasonable.  I think that was essentially the Doug Whaley school of thought in fact, and I really liked Doug Whaley.  

 

All the same (and ironically), I see Shaq as the reason that philosophy fails.  Shaq was the top DE on the board, and a lot of it had to do with his pass rushing ability.  I think saying that we drafted him because of his run defense is a little revisionist. But in any event, he is what happens when you reach for that "elite" position.  You end up using a valuable pick on a very run of the mill player.  I'd rather have the best guard than a pass rusher that gets me 7 sacks in the season.  

 

As far as Wilkins, a lot of the reason I like him is need.  And I know, I know, you should never draft for need.  But it's human nature.  

 

 

I caught a lot of heat on here for calling Shaq an uninspired pick and predicting he would struggle rushing the passer due to a dreadful first step and poor use of his arms to control blockers.........he frequently just leaned into OT's and blocked himself.........but that DL at Clemson was stacked and he mastered the art of being fashionably late to the QB and collecting vulture sacks when passers moved to avoid the other Clemson DL who were ALL so much quicker off the ball than Shaq.

 

Honestly I think Whaley just picked the players Rex wanted in that last season.   If you follow Rex career he was not a guy who featured pin-ears-back edge rushers......a guy like Shaq who he thought could set the edge as a 3-4 OLB appealed to him.

 

So far McDermott has selected a CB and QB and a guy I thought would be a very good edge rusher with his first round picks(not as big of a fan of Edmunds as a MLB).

 

 

[DCbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I really don’t think that the Bills are going to make many picks in the later rounds. I feel like they used FA to kind of take care of “depth” guys like you’d get later in the draft. Guys like Johnson, Feliciano, Waddle and even Kroft to a lesser extent. The draft, this year is about finding a handful of players IMO. I fully expect the Bills to pick 4 times by the end of day 2 with the hope of finding 4 “immediate starter” types. They will be targeting guys and going to get them. They’ve upgraded the back of their roster. This will be about upgrading the top and middle.

I tend to agree with you.  I was kind of shocked, in a good way, by the number of free agent signings.  There's not many openings on the 53 man roster assuming all of these recent signings make the team.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Who is your preference for the pick at #9? I think Beane has positioned himself to go in numerous directions. I like Oliver, because I think he can be a disruptive DT, but if you think he's too small and will get pushed around, that's a reason to back off. A fella like Dillard who could end up being a quality LT makes sense, especially if you think Dawkins might be a superlative LG. I don't see a WR at #9, mainly because DK seems too risky there. Bosa and Allen will be gone early, so where's the edge that early? I think our cb situation is good enough you don't expend a first there.

 

My preference is to trade for Julio Jones.......I'm still deciding on my pick at #9.......but aside from a miracle like Bosa falling close to #9 and trading up........ ideally I'd like to move back and take a swing at a high upside guy like Sweat, Metcalf, Dillard or Taylor......or Ed Oliver......and get a little hedge with that extra pick in round 2 or 3.

 

Those guys could all be bust-city but I believe in the "matchup league" and if you aren't getting huge difference makers in round 1 you are just wasting time.

 

 With first round contracts only lasting 4 years until you gotta' commit to a $10M cap hit in year 5 it doesn't make sense to use it to patch holes because you can't stack up first rounders for 6 years like in the good ol'  Jauron/Gailey days.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chicken Boo]

I never thought of Wilkins as an option.  Figured he'd be gone by #9.

 

I'm good with this draft.