Fake-Fat Sunny Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 I think this trade was a win/win (as trades should be for both sides to make the deal). Plusses for the 'Boys: 1. Gained a 04 2nd rounder- This became Jones (800+ yards in 8 games and 7TDs) with a draft value at this position on the chart at 470 points. 2. Gained a 04 5th rounder- This became Sean Ryan (no passes caught atTE last year and appeared in a relative handful of games and is in development) with a draft value of 34 points on the chart- 3. Gained a 05 1st rounder- Has a value of 850 points on the chart as the Bills 04 finish put the pick at #20. Plusses for the Bills: 1. Gained an '04 1st rounder- This became JP Losman (4 games with a QB rating of 39.2 which does not reflect that all of these appearances were in not record important mop-up times and his development saw a steady improvement from being overwhelmed when thrown into the NE game, being nonplussed leading to a delay of game penalty but allowing him to hand-off several times for a TD by WM. and him still lacking total control having to call a TO to avoid a penalty but leading the Bills to a TD with a couple of passes and a 3rd down conversion with his running for a 1st down on his way to a score. The #22 pick has an assigned value of 780 points. The big plus for the Bills is that the 06 QB class is generally judged as weak and while JP will get a shot at starting, it is doubtful that any QB acquired by the Bills in this draft would even be able to be more than a #3 QB in 05. The attempt will at least be made to have Losman ready to go this year as our QB of the future was acquired with the pick with a year to train and with a #22 slotted contract. In essence, the Bills got their QB of the future who will start this year at a cost of 850 points (the #20 pick traded to Dallas) with a kicker of trading 504 points to Dallas to move our pick from 05 to 04. I simply see no way that we could have acquired a QB we would visualize as starting this year in this year's draft. The move was effective for us. Even if we found a RoboQB in this year's draft (none are seen remotely as being that good) the likely cost of having to trade a player to move up from #20 (a position achieved regardless of the trade for Losman) would likely have been a cost much greater than trading a #2 and #5. Dallas will still need to work to achieve development of Ryan, pick a good one with #20 and to get a full season out of Jones. However, the latter seems quite doable and the other two are possible though not yet likely. The Bills will have to work to achieve development of Losman, but we reasonably feel off to a good start. Our prospects would be a lot bleaker if we had not made this trade as I suspect we would have needed to give up a lot more to get our QB of the future and a credible answer for this year.
Rubes Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 I know zip about the draft point system, but it seems that when you tote up the Bill's "lost" points (1354), shouldn't they be crdited with 780 points that they received from Dallas? (-1354) + 780 = 574, net "cost". Dunno. 291927[/snapback] It's about time somebody pointed that out. J.P. isn't "worth" a #9 pick in the draft because we spent 1300 points or whatever to make the trade. He was worth 574 points, because that's how much we spent to be able to get the #22 pick in return, which is worth some 700-odd points.
Fla Bills Fan Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Reviewing the draft pick value chart's point system, that's about roughly the cost in points for JP. We gave up last year's 2nd rd pick(#43) that's valued at 470 points, 5th rd pick(#144) that's valued at 34 points, and this year's 1st rd pick that's the #20 overall that's valued at 850 points. That's a value of 1354 points. The #9 pick overall in a draft is worth 1350 points. Am I looking at this the right way? If I am, is this too high or too low for JP? I'm not sure, but I do know that the value in points that Dallas gave up at the #22 pick overall last year was worth 780 points. Looking at it like this I think Dallas made out pretty good. I would have done it if I were them, wouldn't you. 291635[/snapback] If you want to go by points, then you should have subtracted the 780 points which we got back from Dallas 1354 - 780 = 574 the amount we gave up to Draft J.P. I do not like that system myself. Statistics can usually be used to defend both sides of an arguement.
Shameless Homer Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 If you want to go by points, then you should have subtracted the 780 points which we got back from Dallas 1354 - 780 = 574 the amount we gave up to Draft J.P. I do not like that system myself. Statistics can usually be used to defend both sides of an arguement. 292374[/snapback] Points, schmoints. Where the hell have you people been? JP watched the Patton movie! He's really, really cute. Nuff said!
stuckincincy Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 It's about time somebody pointed that out. J.P. isn't "worth" a #9 pick in the draft because we spent 1300 points or whatever to make the trade. He was worth 574 points, because that's how much we spent to be able to get the #22 pick in return, which is worth some 700-odd points. 292356[/snapback] I just KNEW my 3rd Grade math would come in handy, some day... BTW, Rubes...who is that in your avatar? I'm afraid I'm not up to snuff on today's notables...
Rubes Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 I just KNEW my 3rd Grade math would come in handy, some day... BTW, Rubes...who is that in your avatar? I'm afraid I'm not up to snuff on today's notables... 292469[/snapback] It's Gee-Dubya's best buddy...
R. Rich Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 There's no need to give up JoeSixPack, not for a first round pick or anything else. I like the guy.
Snorom Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Reviewing the draft pick value chart's point system, that's about roughly the cost in points for JP. We gave up last year's 2nd rd pick(#43) that's valued at 470 points, 5th rd pick(#144) that's valued at 34 points, and this year's 1st rd pick that's the #20 overall that's valued at 850 points. That's a value of 1354 points. The #9 pick overall in a draft is worth 1350 points. Am I looking at this the right way? If I am, is this too high or too low for JP? I'm not sure, but I do know that the value in points that Dallas gave up at the #22 pick overall last year was worth 780 points. Looking at it like this I think Dallas made out pretty good. I would have done it if I were them, wouldn't you. 291635[/snapback] We didn't give up this years 1st rd pick we swapped this years 1st rd for Dallas's last years 1st rd so in my calculations the value for the trade was only 504 pts
stuckincincy Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 It's Gee-Dubya's best buddy... 292533[/snapback] Thanks! I'd like to see him prostrate in the side of a desert road as I pull up with my GM vehicle..."Roger, and out" is what I'd say as I motor off...
alg Posted April 1, 2005 Posted April 1, 2005 Reviewing the draft pick value chart's point system, that's about roughly the cost in points for JP. We gave up last year's 2nd rd pick(#43) that's valued at 470 points, 5th rd pick(#144) that's valued at 34 points, and this year's 1st rd pick that's the #20 overall that's valued at 850 points. That's a value of 1354 points. The #9 pick overall in a draft is worth 1350 points. Am I looking at this the right way? If I am, is this too high or too low for JP? I'm not sure, but I do know that the value in points that Dallas gave up at the #22 pick overall last year was worth 780 points. Looking at it like this I think Dallas made out pretty good. I would have done it if I were them, wouldn't you. 291635[/snapback] It has already been mentioned that JP would be the top QB in this draft (and drafted between 1 and 5) which suggests the Bils made out very well. He also got a full year of study in the pro system. All in all, another brilliant TD move. As to the value of points, you failed to make one HUGE adjustment with your calculations. This years first was traded last year, meaning it is discounted to approx 2nd round value. You would not use the 850, but more like 470 used on last years 2nd. Dallas ended up with more points, but if you consider JPs relative value this year, and the fact that we got the 1st in an extremely deep and valuable draft, I would say that we made out like bandits. On paper of course - we need to see how all these guys play first.
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