VABills Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Considering that JP would have been the 1st QB picked if he came out in thisyears draft ahead of Rogers and Smith, I think a #9 slot is pretty good. Also remember, JP has now had 1year of NFL experience under his belt. 291808[/snapback] One person said that, and you believe that to be gospel?
bobblehead Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Is JP worth a #9 pick in a draft? What draft? Last year? probably not, this year, probably, based on player rankings.
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 One person said that, and you believe that to be gospel? 291810[/snapback] Which is more likely true: 1. Mort said that because of his vast film study as a draftnik and on his board has Losman rated higher than the other two. 2. Mort is on the phone all day talking to GMs and coaches and pro scouts and real NFL insiders who give their opinions on players. By the way, again, I have never said Losman was going to be great, I hope he is. In fact, I personally DON'T think he is a better prospect than Alex Smith, who I watched play and like a lot. If I were the GM picking I would pick Smith over Losman. I was just posting about what some guys like TD and do this for a living in the NFL seem to think. Contrary to some people's opinions on this board, I do not think I am smarter or more informed that Donohoe and I am glad (for you guys) that he has that job and not me.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Look, there actually is a simple answer to this question. Would JP have gone before the #9 pick in THIS draft? If the answer is "Yes" (I think it is), then it was worth it, definitely (b/c the #2 pick is worth more than the #9 pick). Factor in the cheaper contract b/c we got him at 21, and it's a no-brainer.
VABills Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Contrary to some people's opinions on this board, I do not think I am smarter or more informed that Donohoe and I am glad (for you guys) that he has that job and not me. 291818[/snapback] I have seen a little of Smith and Rodgers, just because they were on National TV. I liked what I saw out of both. I too honestly do not know from a QB standpoint what to evaluate. I can a little from an Online and runningback standpoint, because I played Rb and know what the line was supposed to do in front of me. That said, I do have a friend who is in a front office scout and has fed me some info and given me evaluations on occassion. A lot of what he says is true or something simlar happens. But I do respect his opinion when he gives it regarding players as he knows more then I do.
joesz Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 You are missing one important factor when you assign value to the position in the draft - the price expected for waiting a year to get the 1st round pick back. I have followed the draft for years and have seen teams pay a stiff price for a deffered draft picks. In the 1980s, when Bobby Beatheard was the GM for the Washington Redskins, he would trade a 1st round pick in next year's draft for a 2nd round pick in the current year's draft. In a sense, he established the value for deferred draft picks. If you look at it from that point of view, Donohoe got good value, paying only a 2nd and 5th round pick for getting a 1st round pick a year early.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 You are missing one important factor when you assign value to the position in the draft - the price expected for waiting a year to get the 1st round pick back. I have followed the draft for years and have seen teams pay a stiff price for a deffered draft picks. In the 1980s, when Bobby Beatheard was the GM for the Washington Redskins, he would trade a 1st round pick in next year's draft for a 2nd round pick in the current year's draft. In a sense, he established the value for deferred draft picks. If you look at it from that point of view, Donohoe got good value, paying only a 2nd and 5th round pick for getting a 1st round pick a year early. 291851[/snapback] That was before the salary cap though - don't forget. First round picks are expensive risks now, and they don't always justify their contracts (Mike Williams, anyone?). Look at teams nowadays that have picked poorly in round 1 and you'll see a different kind of problem than the one you describe (Cleveland comes to mind).
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 I have seen a little of Smith and Rodgers, just because they were on National TV. I liked what I saw out of both. I too honestly do not know from a QB standpoint what to evaluate. I can a little from an Online and runningback standpoint, because I played Rb and know what the line was supposed to do in front of me. That said, I do have a friend who is in a front office scout and has fed me some info and given me evaluations on occassion. A lot of what he says is true or something simlar happens. But I do respect his opinion when he gives it regarding players as he knows more then I do. 291846[/snapback] I honestly was not referring to you at all (or I should say you anymore than anyone else) when I wrote "some people on this board". We rag at each other a lot but I like it and like you as a poster. You're (usually, ha) well-informed, opinionated, watch a lot of football, have a few contacts, do your own research, etc. And outside of implying things I never implied, and linking antiquated articles and quotes to prove your since-disproved points, you're probably a good guy.
Tipster19 Posted March 31, 2005 Author Posted March 31, 2005 Look, correct me if I'm wrong but I think Dallas landed up drafting Julius Jones with our 2nd rd pick and TE Sean Ryan (who I posted on wanting him last year) with our 5th rd pick. It is not yet determined who they will pick this year at the #20 slot, but already Dallas made themselves one heck of a deal. Now it's time for Buffalo to see some residual out of JP. In hindsight I can fully understand why TD & CO let Bledsoe go. Between the money and draft pick that they spent on Bledsoe and the past/current draft picks that they spent on JP, it's more than time to see what kind of return they are going to get with Losman. PS congratulations to you Coach Tuesday, I see that you made it on the Cards message board. They were talking about your question that you sent in pretty good yesterday.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 PS congratulations to you Coach Tuesday, I see that you made it on the Cards message board. They were talking about your question that you sent in pretty good yesterday. 291859[/snapback] Ubiquitous, I tell you!
Kelly the Dog Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 That was before the salary cap though - don't forget. First round picks are expensive risks now, and they don't always justify their contracts (Mike Williams, anyone?). Look at teams nowadays that have picked poorly in round 1 and you'll see a different kind of problem than the one you describe (Cleveland comes to mind). 291854[/snapback] There is quite a difference in what you pay for a #1 pick at 20-25 and a #1 pick in the top 5 or even the top 10. We got Losman in the 20s which are nice contracts but the signing bonuses and salaries are not crippling to a team if the player tanks.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 There is quite a difference in what you pay for a #1 pick at 20-25 and a #1 pick in the top 5 or even the top 10. We got Losman in the 20s which are nice contracts but the signing bonuses and salaries are not crippling to a team if the player tanks. 291865[/snapback] That was basically my first answer - which is the simple answer to the question this thread posits - if JP would theoretically have gone higher than #9 this year, then we got a good deal, and factoring in his relative contract price, we got a steal.
MadBuffaloDisease Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 That said, I do have a friend who is in a front office scout and has fed me some info and given me evaluations on occassion. A lot of what he says is true or something simlar happens. But I do respect his opinion when he gives it regarding players as he knows more then I do. As I've said before, "insiders" are mostly useful for providing information about goings-on. When it comes to evaluation, they're no better than anyone else because the draft and player development are crap-shoots, especially when there's little film on a player in real games. I'm sure your friend has whiffed on more than a few players in his time, but you probably haven't heard too much about that from him, or chose not to remember them. The best anyone can say here is "we'll see." He certainly came a HELL of a lot cheaper than the 9th overall pick, already has a year under his belt, and probably would have been picked higher than 9th overall, DEFINITELY higher than 22nd overall, this year.
stuckincincy Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Reviewing the draft pick value chart's point system, that's about roughly the cost in points for JP. We gave up last year's 2nd rd pick(#43) that's valued at 470 points, 5th rd pick(#144) that's valued at 34 points, and this year's 1st rd pick that's the #20 overall that's valued at 850 points. That's a value of 1354 points. The #9 pick overall in a draft is worth 1350 points. Am I looking at this the right way? If I am, is this too high or too low for JP? I'm not sure, but I do know that the value in points that Dallas gave up at the #22 pick overall last year was worth 780 points. Looking at it like this I think Dallas made out pretty good. I would have done it if I were them, wouldn't you. 291635[/snapback] I know zip about the draft point system, but it seems that when you tote up the Bill's "lost" points (1354), shouldn't they be crdited with 780 points that they received from Dallas? (-1354) + 780 = 574, net "cost". Dunno.
ganesh Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Look, there actually is a simple answer to this question. Would JP have gone before the #9 pick in THIS draft? If the answer is "Yes" (I think it is), then it was worth it, definitely (b/c the #2 pick is worth more than the #9 pick). Factor in the cheaper contract b/c we got him at 21, and it's a no-brainer. 291837[/snapback] Yes. I forgout the contract part too.. 1. The guy has 1 year of NFL experience now 2. His contract is placed at the #21 position of the draft. 3. His teammates are more likely to accept a 1year experienced in the system guy than a new rookie QB starting for the team.
2003Contenders Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Like so many of you have said, we simply won't know who got the better end of the bargain for years to come. It also isn't fair to compare the players that were ultimatley selected by each team either. For example, it is doubtful that the Cowboys would have used their original pick on Loseman, since they had just acquired Henson -- just like it is doubtful that we would have selected J Jones. I recall a couple of years ago that Jimmy Johnson, who was one of the first to use a points-based value ranking system, indicated that he always viewed the value of a pick in THIS year's draft to be worth that of a round EARLIER in the following year's draft. That is to say, that a mid-round 2nd rounder in 2005 would be worth (on his points board) what a mid round 1st rounder is worth in 2006. Johnson's reasoning has been echoed by many on the board already: a year of development, knowing with assurance which player you are taking at a given point in time, etc. Also, last year was unique in the sense that the draft class was a very deep one -- while this year's class is much weaker at most positions. Credit TD and the scouting department with having done their homework. So while, the points associated with the #20 pick are set at a certain value NOW, to truly compare apples to apples, you would almost have to look at the points values associated with the #20 pick of the second round to fairly judge the value at the TIME of the trade last year. That is, are two second rounders and a 5th rounder worthy of a mid-to-late 1st rounder? All in all, I really think you can make the argument that it was a win-win trade with both sides coming away with what they wanted -- and both sides having to give up something to do it. Dallas will maintain that they had Julius Jones ranked right there with Steven Jackson -- and that they considered taking him with the the #22 pick. The Bills have argued that they had JP ranked right up there with Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger. We'll see.
FTW_BillsFan Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Can someone post a link to the draft pick cost list please? Thanks..
Tipster19 Posted March 31, 2005 Author Posted March 31, 2005 Valid point stuckincincy. If you noticed, I did ask if I was looking at this the right way. Thanks for the input. 2003Contender, I'm not sure, but if you keep on looking at the future projection of a draft pick then wouldn't it be perpetual?
Adam Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Reviewing the draft pick value chart's point system, that's about roughly the cost in points for JP. We gave up last year's 2nd rd pick(#43) that's valued at 470 points, 5th rd pick(#144) that's valued at 34 points, and this year's 1st rd pick that's the #20 overall that's valued at 850 points. That's a value of 1354 points. The #9 pick overall in a draft is worth 1350 points. Am I looking at this the right way? If I am, is this too high or too low for JP? I'm not sure, but I do know that the value in points that Dallas gave up at the #22 pick overall last year was worth 780 points. Looking at it like this I think Dallas made out pretty good. I would have done it if I were them, wouldn't you. 291635[/snapback] I'd give him about 5 years before making any type of judgement
slothrop Posted March 31, 2005 Posted March 31, 2005 Look, there actually is a simple answer to this question. Would JP have gone before the #9 pick in THIS draft? If the answer is "Yes" (I think it is), then it was worth it, definitely (b/c the #2 pick is worth more than the #9 pick). Factor in the cheaper contract b/c we got him at 21, and it's a no-brainer. 291837[/snapback] exactly! Donahoe showed great forsight by trading up for Losman because this year's draft sucks! The value of a first round pick this year is devalued due to the weakest draft class in 30 years (according to Dr. Z). So think of it this way, we got a first round QB in one of the strongest QB classes since '83 -or, we drafted the best QB in the draft with our first round pick this year.
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