How Much Did The Bills Actually Improve the OL? PFF Rankings 2018 vs. 2019 Comparison

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Because neither of them have the all around games you'd like to see from a number one guy. It can't just be about running verticals. You need guys out there who can get open underneath or on intermediate routes, receivers who are effective blockers for WR screens or pick plays, etc. If you just do the same things over and over again the defense will sit on what you do well and take it away. Having said that, it's possible we do start both though I feel like that will say more about what we don't have in Duke, Zay, etc., than anything else. 

 

Agree about Beasley and Shady being good outlets. Haven't seen much of Kroft yet so I'll reserve judgement. Let's hope Josh comes into camp having fixed his issues with short throws.

 

Both Brown and Foster aren't just vertical threats and can get open short and intermediate.

[DCbillsfan]

If you watch videos of the new signees, (Feliciano, Morse, Long, and Ty) you notice that they are more athletic linemen.  Their movement skills, physicality, and sheer strength is an improvement over what we had.  

[SoTier]

19 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

I'm not really too familiar with some of the new lineman that the Bills signed this past week, so I looked up their rankings in PFF.  Here's how the 2018 group compares to the current linemen for 2019.  If the PFF rankings mean anything to you - it appears that the Bills shuffled around the chairs on the deck of the Titanic.  Based on the numbers here, there's a marginal improvement at Right Tackle and Center.  Everyone else appear to be a substitution of average to below average depth players....

 

New signees like Waddle, Felciano, and Spencer long are ranked just as low 2018 underperforming class of Vlad and Ryan Groy.  Spencer Long was actually worse than Ryan Groy!!!

 

Many say that these PFF rankings are pure BS...let's hope they are right.

 

2018 Bills Offensive LIne

 

2019 Bills Offensive Line

 

 

 

I have never been a fan of PFF and their rating of OLers.   However PFF compute their "rank" numbers, they consistently seem to discount blatantly bad plays like whiffs while penalizing OLers who struggle to make up for their linemates' poor play.  It seems that their film "experts" watch and rate the play of each OLer totally out of context to the entire play, so they don't catch the bad plays by 1 OLer that forces his linemate to try to make up for his failure -- and may fail.  Maybe they just don't know squat about OL play.  Whatever, their ranking system seems pretty meaningless.

 

The measure of any unit is how effective it is in protecting the QB and opening holes for the running game, no matter what kind of stats individuals produce.  An OL which supposedly has 4 of 5 members "average" or "above average" should have protected the QBs better and opened more holes for the RBs than the 2018 Bills OL did.  They were easily the most ineffective OL the Bills have fielded since about 2009 or 2010.  

 

The real "proof of the pudding" about whether this OL is an improvement over 2018's version will be revealed only during the regular season by how well they protect Allen and open holes for the RBs.  Until then, I'll reserve judgement on the OL -- and on the success or failure of the 2019 FA signings. 

 

 

[BillyWhiteShows]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

PFF's grading begs the question: what are the qualifications of PFF's staff?  Are they ex-coaches, much less ex-NFL coaches?

 

And the biggest reason for the struggles of the OL, besides Juan Castillo, are losing Wood and Incognito and replacing them with far inferior players.  Sure having a rookie QB didn't help, but having those guys and a run game would have taken enormous pressure off Josh.

 

As for the run game, having Brown and Foster outside will prevent CB's and S's from crowding the LOS, allowing more room for the RB's.

 

I’ll agree with you there but when I try to use the same logic when questioning qualifications of  a blog Cover 1, I’m met with a lot of criticism and push back.  

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

I’ll agree with you there but when I try to use the same logic when questioning qualifications of  a blog Cover 1, I’m met with a lot of criticism and push back.  

 

Speaking only for myself, you got criticized because you claimed Cover 1's lack of credentials meant that the statistics listed in one of the site's articles didn't apply, which was patently absurd.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Agreed. And with that combination a big play TE makes this offense, Josh and Shady quite dangerous. 

 

 

Lot's of *potential* playmaking TE's from round 2-4 in this draft.

 

I tend to agree with Bandit that taking a TE in round one is lunacy, though.

 

Hasn't been a good TE emerge from the first round in forever.

 

Might be a harder position to evaluate and project than QB..........and not uncoincidentally the Bills are traditionally almost as scared of drafting TE's as they have been QB's........they've liked them CB's and RB's........the easy evals.

[BillyWhiteShows]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Speaking only for myself, you got criticized because you claimed Cover 1's lack of credentials meant that the statistics listed in one of the site's articles didn't apply, which was patently absurd.

 

No it’s the same thing.  I’m calling into question the credentials of a non-football subjectively person evaluating football players.  Same as PFF

[TroutDog]

I admittedly haven’t read the entire thread but a line is a sum of all parts, not a measure of one individual. Just my opinion. 

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

No it’s the same thing.  I’m calling into question the credentials of a non-football subjectively person evaluating football players.  Same as PFF

 

Not in our discussion you weren't.

 

I linked to a Cover 1 post that cited statistics (not Cover 1 analytics mind you, just stats) for cornerbacks, and you claimed that the numbers weren't valid because Cover 1 lacked credentials.

 

That's not the same thing.

[BillyWhiteShows]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Not in our discussion you weren't.

 

I linked to a Cover 1 post that cited statistics (not Cover 1 analytics mind you, just stats) for cornerbacks, and you claimed that the numbers weren't valid because Cover 1 lacked credentials.

 

That's not the same thing.

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I see it differently

[Saxum]

42 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

No it’s the same thing.  I’m calling into question the credentials of a non-football subjectively person evaluating football players.  Same as PFF

 

Actually same thing applies to you. Someone with even less credentials right?

[Just Joshin']

17 hours ago, Peter said:

 

According to the PFF ranking, we made the 13th ranked center the highest paid center in the NFL.  

 

I hope Mitch Morse plays up to his contract . . . otherwise McCoach are overpaying guys just as they thought the prior regime had done.

 

I will wait to see how Morse performs on the field, but it is interesting nonetheless.

How is the13th ranked center above average?

4 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

PFF rankings should be taken with a quarry of salt. 

I am confused - they have Dawkins as above average and many here believe he is a poor tackle, maybe a good guard.

 

 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.  I see it differently

 

So, let's suppose I say something like "last year, Zay Jones lead the Bills in receiving TDs with 7".

 

To your knowledge, I've never played in the NFL and couldn't possibly be an expert. Does that make the statistic that I've just stated false?

 

Because that was basically what you said about Cover 1.

 

 

[B Fan in LA]

I think we were all in agreement at the end of last season that the OLine needed to be overhauled, and improved.

I'm not sure what to think about our recent additions, but I like the change.

 

The Bills are in the business of selling season tickets, and they had to do something to get the fan base excited.

I think they succeeded. I can't wait to see a dramatic improvement.

 

Go Bills !

 

[Shaw66]

On 3/17/2019 at 1:54 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Their willingness to admit mistakes is maybe the most encouraging thing about them.    They botched the Peterman thing twice but they've otherwise been more responsive to their bad decisions.

 

Extending Wood in summer 2017 was a Buddy-Nix-esque move.    Wood was going nowhere after the season they were just trying to schmooze/bribe a perceived leader into saying the right things and got burned.   Hopefully lesson learned. 

 

My concern with the past two UFA classes is that it's been a high volume of "oh really?" guys and contracts.     The 2018 last class was awfully unproductive and the "we didn't have any cap room" excuse doesn't really mesh with the $30M or so they spent.

 

Hopefully this class is A LOT better.

 

Obviously the hope is that not having that feeling of desperate "need" at positions leads to sounder, more effective drafting and that in the near future they won't need to sign 9-10 UFA's.   If this class leads to a tremendously successful draft then it will have been money well spent.

 

 

As Buffalo said, I think extending Wood was about having veteran leadership.  He was the only dependable veteran on the line, Richie being a perpetual questionmark.

 

I think you are right about the "oh really" thing, except for this.  I've been saying for more than a year that McD is a closet Belichick disciple, and Belichick has made a living on the "oh really" free agents.  He wanted Beasley.  He took Hogan.  He took that one-year-wonder backup running back from the Bills.  He took the Bills' tight end.  He takes guys like that all the time.  Once in a while he will pay really big for a Gilmore or a Welker, but most his free agent signings are "oh really" "guys.  The reality of those signings is that some are good for a year or two and some bust in the first year.  You keep taking them, keeping some and cutting some.  

 

You called it admitting mistakes.  But the reality is that using that philosophy, you know you will have mistakes.  What you're counting on is a decent yield.  Of 50-60% of them work out, you're doing okay.  

 

Frankly, it's the same thing with draft picks.  You want 100% yield in the first three rounds, but after that it's about yield.

[Doc]

5 hours ago, B Fan in LA said:

I think we were all in agreement at the end of last season that the OLine needed to be overhauled, and improved.

I'm not sure what to think about our recent additions, but I like the change.

 

The Bills are in the business of selling season tickets, and they had to do something to get the fan base excited.

I think they succeeded. I can't wait to see a dramatic improvement.

 

Go Bills !

 

Teams don't care about selling tickets.  They're a drop in the bucket compared to the other revenue they get, namely TV.  The moves were made to try to improve the team.

 

 

[nucci]

considering how bad it was last season.....almost anyone would be an improvement....but getting a top C is huge

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As Buffalo said, I think extending Wood was about having veteran leadership.  He was the only dependable veteran on the line, Richie being a perpetual questionmark.

 

I think you are right about the "oh really" thing, except for this.  I've been saying for more than a year that McD is a closet Belichick disciple, and Belichick has made a living on the "oh really" free agents.  He wanted Beasley.  He took Hogan.  He took that one-year-wonder backup running back from the Bills.  He took the Bills' tight end.  He takes guys like that all the time.  Once in a while he will pay really big for a Gilmore or a Welker, but most his free agent signings are "oh really" "guys.  The reality of those signings is that some are good for a year or two and some bust in the first year.  You keep taking them, keeping some and cutting some.  

 

You called it admitting mistakes.  But the reality is that using that philosophy, you know you will have mistakes.  What you're counting on is a decent yield.  Of 50-60% of them work out, you're doing okay.  

 

Frankly, it's the same thing with draft picks.  You want 100% yield in the first three rounds, but after that it's about yield.

 

- the lesson is you don't give unnecessary money out to a player for being a leader.    They lead or they do not.   It's a mistake made by weaker Bills regimes in the past.   In the Wood case it set them up to lose cap room.   But it also irritates others who are leaders in their rooms who then don't get the benefit of the doubt with an early extension.   Gotta' know when to leave well enough alone.   There is a right time to apply the dime.

 

-50%-60% ain't happening.   Their 9 man UFA class last year was almost entirely failures.  If you are signing 10 guys in UFA you are almost inevitably getting a bunch of junk and *maybe* 2-3 players who are worth it.   I don't really agree with the Belichick comp........they handle their personnel in a much more sophisticated manner.......more selectively and with comp picks in mind......they have a different roster situation and are almost the opposite of how Beane has been doing business.   ANY GM who could hit on 50%-60% with 10 UFA's is executive of the year material.    And Beane isn't close to that.   That award goes to the guy who signs like 4 targeted UFA's and 3 of them turn out very good in addition to success in the draft/UDFA/trades/coaching hires etc..  Right now Beane is just playing with the owners money and throwing it against the wall because he has tons of spots to improve and more money than time.  Hopefully the day comes in the future when he doesn't need to be so active in UFA to fill out the roster and we get a better idea about his ability to efficiently manage a roster. 

[TigerJ]

On 3/16/2019 at 11:50 PM, SCBills said:

Spencer Long was also injured, playing Center.  We have him playing back at Guard. 

Yeah.  Hopefully that terrible PFF ranking includes his efforts at playing center with a broken hand.  Trying to do that would not seem to lend itself to a great deal of efficiency.

[eball]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

-50%-60% ain't happening.   Their 9 man UFA class last year was almost entirely failures.  If you are signing 10 guys in UFA you are almost inevitably getting a bunch of junk and *maybe* 2-3 players who are worth it.   I don't really agree with the Belichick comp........they handle their personnel in a much more sophisticated manner.......more selectively and with comp picks in mind......they have a different roster situation and are almost the opposite of how Beane has been doing business.   ANY GM who could hit on 50%-60% with 10 UFA's is executive of the year material.    And Beane isn't close to that.   That award goes to the guy who signs like 4 targeted UFA's and 3 of them turn out very good in addition to success in the draft/UDFA/trades/coaching hires etc..  Right now Beane is just playing with the owners money and throwing it against the wall because he has tons of spots to improve and more money than time.  Hopefully the day comes in the future when he doesn't need to be so active in UFA to fill out the roster and we get a better idea about his ability to efficiently manage a roster. 

 

I'm sure it's no surprise that I disagree with much of this post.  The Bills did not intend for last year's UFA class to lead them into the future -- they were stopgap signings in a year they knew would be painful.  The difference between the type of signings Beane has made this year and last year is night and day, and they are ALL team- and cap-friendly.  The signings this year could represent 5-6 starters (Morse, Brown, Beasley, Kroft, Nsekhe, Long) and have completely changed the narrative about the WR room and competition on the OL.

 

Of course Beane shouldn't have to be so active in FA -- that's what happens when the team lacks talent.  I know you think Beane should have come in and run with what was here -- that it was possible to make a few moves and not re-set the entire organization.  That's fine -- you're entitled to your opinion -- but we'll never know if that would have worked.  What we do know is that he did a pretty masterful job of following his plan and cleaning up the books so he and McD could go after the players they wanted.

 

If these UFAs don't perform Beane will be subject to justifiable criticism -- but it doesn't make sense to predict that already, and he built in protections for the team in the way these deals have been structured if they don't pan out.