Hockenson at #9 Change My Mind

[Logic]

1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

You can trade back and get him

I doubt you can trade back all that far and still be assured of getting Hock.

[dubs]

My truly limited opinion on this is a:

 

That’s a no for me Dawg. 

 

Just seems like way too early for a TE especially when it seems there are a few very good TEs in this draft. 

[bkep32]

Fant is the more althetic player that doesnt block well.  TJ is the blocker, good hands just not as athletic.  So pick ur poison, if u want just a strictly pass catcher go with fant, if u want all around TE go with hock.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Honestly trade down maybe like 15 i'd get him. But if it is a top defensive talent or top talent at 9 take him. 

[SouthNYfan]

15 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Really cause there are a lot of analysts that think he may go 7 to Jax or 8 to Detroit....

 

We have Shady under contract for 1 more year, Gore for 1 year.  Josh Jacobs May be BPA for many reasons. #1 RB, knows the system, 5’11” 220lbs, great hands, quick, physical, low wear and tear, Look how Barkley and Kamara have helped those teams the last 2 years. Can we trust Shady and Gore to stay healthy?

 

Right now, I’m thinking TJ, Jacobs, OT, DE..... Oliver would be hard to pass up as well.

 

Exactly what I've been saying

Everybody keeps saying trade back for him... But I'm not even sure he'll be there at #9...

If he is I think you have to take him

[Logic]

Hock looks like he'll be an elite tight end for a long time.

The thing that puts him over the top, in my opinion, is his insane blocking ability. Everyone knows he can attack the seam, catch the ball, and be a star in that regard. But the way that he absolutely BURIES people in the run game or as a pass blocker is insane. Not sure I've ever seen a TIGHT END pancake as many people as Hockeson has. Not only that, he LOVES to block. Loves it. 

So if you draft Hockenson, you're not only getting a great, young target for your quarterback, you're also getting a next-level blocker in the run and pass game.

As for the notion of "When was the last time an elite NFL tight end was drafted in the 1st round?", I'd say this: If Gronkowski and Kelce and Ertz in their primes were all available in this year's draft, does anyone have any doubt that they'd all be picked in the 1st round? Look at the value that Gronk has added to NE, Kelce has added to KC, and Ertz has added to Philly. Is anyone REALLY going to say that those contributions aren't worth a 1st round pick?

 

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, suorangefan4 said:

 

Not sure about that. One of the mock draft analysts (I think Daniel Jeremiah) has him as the #5 prospect now.

 

Seen mocks where he goes to Lions at #12.  So I agree. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but you are severely under estimating the value of some of those guys to their teams.  Its not really fair to put the teams situation on the back of the TE and say the TE isnt important because their teams didnt win more.

 

No way Mahomes has remotely as good a year without Kelce, and it was an EDGE rusher bone head play for KC that cost them a SB birth, not Kelce.  Ertz was a HUGE reason the Eagles had a great year and went on to win the SB still even after losing their starting QB.  Pats have managed to win SB's with Gronk being their most talented receiving weapon.  

 

I can name a bunch of talented pass rushes on bad teams too, doesn't devalue the pass rusher.  I can name elite corners on bad teams.  I can name elite QBs on bad teams.  I can name elite OL on bad teams.  I can name elite RB's on bad teams.  And so on and so on.  None of that devalues what a given player can be to a team though.  

 

Ravens do not win the SB with Trent Dilfer without having Shannon Sharp for instance.  Does that mean every team would win the SB with Shannon Sharp on its roster...not at all.  Means he was an incredibly valuable piece to that team and how it was built.  Chiefs do not get within one play of the SB had Kelce not been on that roster.  He is was almost unguardable and opened up the passing game for Mahomes, the other receivers, and even the RBs.  You cant cover everyone.  Eagles offense would be below average without Ertz, yet they won the SB with a journeyman QB a little over a year ago.  

 

TE can be a young QB's best friend, especially if they are a receiving weapon and a quality blocker.  Especially in todays NFL.  The TE position is one that has become much more valuable over the last 5 years and its not going away anytime soon.  

 

FWIW I was speaking strictly about offensive production vis a vis TEs impact, not the whole team or their record. There isn't one position responsible for how 'good' a team is, even quarterback isn't THAT important.

 

Your examples are reasonable...but so are mine. So tight end in the first/top10; meh, I don't see it tbh. I'm not saying it's a position of zero importance, just not first-round importance. I view TE the same way I do RB...value isn't in the first round. 

[DJB]

9 minutes ago, KauaiBuffaloSports said:

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

 

Hockenson had risen BEFORE the combine and in fact some are knocking him for only an average combine. So hes more likely to have dropped based off his combine than risen

[BillsFan1988]

9 minutes ago, KauaiBuffaloSports said:

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

TJ Hockenson did played great last yr he's not just a combine workout warrior. He's a balanced TE that can pancake a DE on one play and the next stretch the seem and score a TD . Not only that there's huge value in his blocking after one of our wrs make a catch he can be the difference between them getting a first down by an inch or a TD. There's a ton of value in today's NFL for a TE like Hock.

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, 947 said:

 

I do like Hockenson, but chances are, we won't be drafting in the top-10 again anytime soon. If we pass on an OT prospect, we may not have the chance at a top one for a long time. There'll always be top TEs in the mid-late 1st.

Good point!   Completely agree.   Keeping Josh out of the hospital is mission critical.   You can never have enough quality offensive lineman. 

[Chuck Wagon]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Honestly trade down maybe like 15 i'd get him. But if it is a top defensive talent or top talent at 9 take him. 

 

 

How i view it.  At 9 we are right on the edge of two different clusters.  Basically if Murray / Haskins and one or two surprise picks go top 8 we are getting one of the top tier prospects, but if everyone is off the board we are picking one of the first out of the next cluster and a similar talent is likely available at 15.

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

Hockenson had risen BEFORE the combine and in fact some are knocking him for only an average combine. So hes more likely to have dropped based off his combine than risen

 

It's almost as if these people just make things up, right?

 

He had an average combine and great season.

 

Glad you actually pay attention djb

[dubs]

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

It's almost as if these people just make things up, right?

 

He had an average combine and great season.

 

Glad you actually pay attention djb

 

Ha. Was going to say the same thing. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

 

FWIW I was speaking strictly about offensive production vis a vis TEs impact, not the whole team or their record. There isn't one position responsible for how 'good' a team is, even quarterback isn't THAT important.

 

Your examples are reasonable...but so are mine. So tight end in the first/top10; meh, I don't see it tbh. I'm not saying it's a position of zero importance, just not first-round importance. I view TE the same way I do RB...value isn't in the first round. 

 

All good and I get it man.  I am not sure they take a TE top 10 either.  I just do think its a position of much higher value today and been an instrumental one to recent SB winners, some of the better offenses in the NFL, and to young QB's. 

 

Personally, I much rather trade down if we go TE and pick up an extra 2nd.  Or grab someone like Jamie Oliver in the 3rd or 4th rounds would be great if we dont go TE earlier. 

[Logic]

As much as I like Hockenson, and I really do like him....picking him at 9 doesn't feel very "Beane/McDermott Bills".

Picking a defensive or offensive lineman, on the other hand, does.

Luckily, this is one of the deeper tight end drafts in years, and it seems likely they can get a quality tight end in round 2 or even 3.

Irv Smith, for instance, seems like a perfect 2nd round target. Speed, athleticism, championship pedigree, and experience with our offensive coordinator.

I'm fine with it either way. To come out of this draft with either Hockenson or Smith would be awesome.

[WideNine]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

True, the point being that TE is a position of relative unimportance to your team's offensive production overall, so whereas a QB or DE impacts the game in such a way that missing on those positions in the first round is worth the risk, TE does not and is not. For example- best TE in the game by far was Kittle: he played in an average offense. Kelce is a great TE in a great offense, but Jared Cook was a good TE in a bad one. Ertz is a good TE in a mediocre offense. Gerald Everett is a below average TE in a great offense. Watson is an average/below average TE in a very good offense. Evan Engram and Jordan Reed, two guys I like and think are above average/good TEs, played in middling to bad offenses respectively (although both had injury issues this season). 

 

I see no correlation between the quality of your tight end and the quality of your offense, so unlike other positions where the risk of missing on your pick is outweighed by the value they bring to their unit (QB, DE, CB, DT, maaaybe LB/OT) the value is not there in the first round for tight ends imo. Certainly not with a top 10 pick.

 

I have seen a lot of discussions about the minimal "impact" of the TE position, and I find them a bit confusing.

 

Clearly for some it means just number of receiving yards, but that is not the only thing I would want from my TE, nor is it the best means of evaluating the impact of a good TE.

 

Receiving yards (that move the chains - in critical short yardage situations or dump offs where a QB is in trouble), blocking that improves the running game, contributions in pass pro that buy your QB more time.

 

Certainly understand the argument about where other "impact" TE's have been taken, but when evaluating the offensive impact and BPA of the position we should evaluate all the aspects of the TE role not just the number of receiving yards.

 

Stress, this is not to say that you cannot find good TE value in later rounds, just that there is more to the positional analysis than finding TEs who are 1000 yd receivers.

 

Also consider that teams often carry a TE they can slot as their flex receiving option who cannot block worth a crap, and another TE who primarily blocks and is not a great receiving option.

 

Finding a TE that can do both can save you a roster spot and allows you to do more and be more creative using the same personnel sets.

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good and I get it man.  I am not sure they take a TE top 10 either.  I just do think its a position of much higher value today and been an instrumental one to recent SB winners, some of the better offenses in the NFL, and to young QB's. 

 

Personally, I much rather trade down if we go TE and pick up an extra 2nd.  Or grab someone like Jamie Oliver in the 3rd or 4th rounds would be great if we dont go TE earlier. 

Yup this

[gonzo1105]

30 minutes ago, KauaiBuffaloSports said:

 

I would not be upset if we went with Hock at 9 but I am weary. TJ rose up the boards after the combine because of his workout times which always scares me. Fant is the player that I would prefer because he has proven himself on the field. If DK and TJ are both examples of guys who shoot up the board because of their athleticism, not their production on the field. Give me a DL at 9

 

Wow this is so off base. Hockenson didn’t rise because of his combine, Fant is the one rising because of his combine. 

 

Hockenson was the starting TE over Fant(they play a lot of two TE tho) at a traditionally rich TE school. Hockenson had better production on the field despite the higher athleticism of Fant. Hockenson is a way better blocker and has better hands then Fant. 

 

I think you have your analysis backwards 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I have seen a lot of discussions about the minimal "impact" of the TE position, and I find them a bit confusing.

 

Clearly for some it means just number of receiving yards, but that is not the only thing I would want from my TE, nor is it the best means of evaluating the impact of a good TE.

 

Receiving yards (that move the chains - in critical short yardage situations or dump offs where a QB is in trouble), blocking that improves the running game, contributions in pass pro that buy your QB more time.

 

Certainly understand the argument about where other "impact" TE's have been taken, but when evaluating the offensive impact and BPA of the position we should evaluate all the aspects of the TE role not just the number of receiving yards.

 

Stress, this is not to say that you cannot find good TE value in later rounds, just that there is more to the positional analysis than finding TEs who are 1000 yd receivers.

 

Also consider that teams often carry a TE they can slot as their flex receiving option who cannot block worth a crap, and another TE who primarily blocks and is not a great receiving option.

 

Finding a TE that can do both can save you a roster spot and allows you to do more and be more creative using the same personnel sets.

 

 

 

Ertz was used as an example- he caught the most passes for over 1000 yards in 2018. Had a monster year in that offense, which itself was overall pretty average. You look at Ertz and think 'man, the Eagles wouldn't have done anything w/out him'

 

Then you look at Goedert and realize that he, while catching fewer passes for fewer yards (obviously), had the exact same YPC and performed overall almost EXACTLY as did Ertz, production-wise. And I'd argue he's a better blocker than is Ertz. So how important is Ertz to that offense overall, considering Goedert was as productive and just caught fewer passes overall? The Eagles (rightly) run their Tiger package a lot w/2 TEs to take advantage of their talent at the position, but it didn't translate to a terrific offense even with Ertz setting NFL reception records for TE...primarily (imo) because there are only so many passes to go around and throwing to TEs is generally less productive than throwing to WRs in a yards/reception sense.