Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

It comes down to the criteria set forth

 

Is every pass thrown within 5 yards counted as a "non catch" even if it is a throw away?    

Is any ball thrown 2 yards out (1 yard in within arms reach) uncatchable?

Is any ball thrown thrown at their feet uncatchable?

 

That's my point. If they do it like that it's stupid, and if they don't do it like that, it's, well, stupid.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Just now, DCOrange said:

 

Oh, the uncatchable was brutal in 2017 lol. So in 2018, 76.5% of Zay's targets were catchable. In 2017, it was 63.5%. But that doesn't change the fact that Zay was pathetic on the catchable ones.

 

That's what I suspected.   Tyrod Taylor had some part of it.  

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That's my point. If they do it like that it's stupid, and if they don't do it like that, it's, well, stupid.

it comes down to the Eye Test   

[DCOrange]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

That's what I suspected.   Tyrod Taylor had some part of it.  

 

That has nothing to do with the the true catch rate though. The true catch rate is only considering the percentage of those 76.5% and the percentage of those 63.5% of passes that he caught. So for example, he had 74 targets in 2017. 27 were deemed uncatchable, leaving 47 that were catchable. He caught 27 of those 47, for a pathetic percentage of 57.4%. That improved to 71.8% this year (which is still bad, but at least not ungodly terrible).

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, eball said:

 

While part of me is laughing my ass off, the other part does think you’re being a bit harsh. I don’t have anything tangible upon which to base this statement, but perhaps Zay is one of those guys who just needs a couple of years in the league before he “gets it.” He certainly caught everything thrown at him in college so I don’t think it’s a lack of skill. 

 

As far as college goes, its a lot easier to get open cleanly in college which makes it a lot easier to catch passes.

 

Also, some guys just don't step up to the pressures or cant shake off mistakes well.  So if their confidence gets a little rattled its hard to come back from and really affects them on the field.  

 

I have said in other threads before that I think the biggest factor in Zays struggles might be his week 2 game as a rookie against the Panthers where we lost because of the game ending dropped pass.  The biggest failure on the play was his route, not the drop.  He ran a sloppy route where he stumbled without interference and was then in bad position to make the game ending catch.  He would get his hands on it still but still didnt come down with the ball.  

 

I think that got to him and he clearly struggled heavy with drops from that point on despite looking impressive in the preseason with less pressure.  Then add in the off field stuff after that bad rookie year, and I think he is just a guy who struggles with mistakes and getting his mind fully past them.  

 

Thats not a good trait, because no WR catches 100% of the passes.  If he can shake off a drop, he will have a career long issue with confidence and never take that step forward.  

 

9 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

there you go getting all Alpha again.

 

Didn't I see you asking why a new Bob Kraft thread was created?   

 

 

Nope.  I said I was surprised a rub and tug incident reached 50 pages.  I asked what could possibly still be getting discussed 50 pages in about a guy getting a handy.  

 

All I did was call you out for jumping into THIS thread then when engaging with you was told to go SEARCH for your comments in other parts of the board.  Thats a pretty silly thing to do, and was just being honest, I see you say that a lot to a lot of people.  Dont really know why you would participate here then object to participating here if someone engages in discussion with you.  

Edited February 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloHokie13]

58 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I like those analytics sites and stats because they provide a different angle to look at the game with, like an extra camera for a TV broadcast. But certain stats, like drops and catchable balls, are very, very suspect to me because they are so very subjective. What one person sees as a bad pass by a QB is a drop by a WR way too many times. You see it in there threads here and elsewhere all the time. I don't put much stock, personally, is drops and uncatchable target stats. A lot of those throws are throwaways, too.   

Zay's rookie year was plagued with bad/incorrect routes, which are being factored into uncatchable targets. But that's not something many around here want to acknowledge.

Edited February 28, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[CLTbills]

Unless we sign 2-3 better WR's this offseason, why would he go anywhere? If we had a bunch of talent there I'd be with you, but we very clearly don't

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Zay's rookie year was plagued with bad/incorrect routes. But that's not something many around here want to acknowledge.

 

And his 2nd year was an improvement, but it was still an issue.    

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

For a guy who doesn't run crisp routes, doesn't get off the line well, doesn't usually know where the first down marker is or adjust his route on third down, doesn't break tackles, doesn't get much YAC, doesn't have the best feet on the sidelines, doesn't often make clutch catches, doesn't fight and win 50-50 battles, doesn't track the ball well at all, doesn't go deep and often drops the ball, he sure gets a lot of love around here.

 

But he knew where to tell KB To line up, so there was some value.....

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

And his 2nd year was an improvement, but it was still an issue.    

Absolutely. Routes and contested catches are my biggest gripes.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

But he knew where to tell KB To line up, so there was some value.....

That's true. He did know all the plays, he just couldn't run any of them.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

Unless we sign 2-3 better WR's this offseason, why would he go anywhere? If we had a bunch of talent there I'd be with you, but we very clearly don't

 

Thats just it, I said I think he will be traded at some point because I do think we will bring in at least 2, and possibly 3 new WRs between FA, draft, and maybe trades (like maybe Ross, not expecting a big trade for Brown or anyone).  

 

If we ONLY bring in ONE more WR the rest the offseason (and I mean a relevant WR, not depth guys) then I absolutely think Zay will be on this team week 1.  

But I think its more plausible we add 2 more at least.  Plus, we did add one earlier in Duke who should not be over looked either.  There are only so many WR spots open, and then there is a pecking order.  Foster passed Zay, Duke will at the very least compete.  Now we add a quality FA WR and then draft one in first 2 rounds...all of a sudden, there are 3 guys (FA, Rookie, and Foster) already challenging to be top 3 on the depth chart along with Duke who I expect to challenge too.  Wont be hard for Zay to fall to 4th or 5th if he cant do something better than the other guys.  And thats not factoring in if we add 3 more guys which is not out of the question.  

Edited February 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[MrEpsYtown]

Whether you hate or love Zay, he has been a massive disappointment. I think there is a chance he could get moved, and I think there is a chance that he could break out. But no one can really deny how terrible he's been. Sure we saw flashes here or there. For a high second round pick, it's simply not good enough. I hope he is better, or moved for an offensive lineman. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Absolutely. Routes and contested catches are my biggest gripes.

 

Ditto.  Zay got a lot of production on the broken plays where Allen had to use his legs to escape or buy time.  If our WR's were winning their routes, our QB would have a place to go with the ball quicker and wont have to run around so much.  Once a QB takes off out of the pocket, its hard for DB's to keep holding coverage when WR's start improvising to the scrambling QB.  So Zay getting free then is not a big deal to me, I want to see him beat his guy off the line and run a clean route where Allen can hit him.  

 

He has not done that well yet.  First season was atrocious.  Second season was better but still below average.  Worse yet, he is awful at beating press coverage.  

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Whether you hate or love Zay, he has been a massive disappointment. I think there is a chance he could get moved, and I think there is a chance that he could break out. But no one can really deny how terrible he's been. Sure we saw flashes here or there. For a high second round pick, it's simply not good enough. I hope he is better, or moved for an offensive lineman. 

 

Agree, and this is why while I have my gut feeling I also do not take any offense with people who disagree.  I have quite enjoyed the dialogue here, lots of great discussion on both sides.  

 

I think we can all agree that all of us would want nothing more than Zay to prove to be a very good WR.  

[NewEraBills]

I think the other issue you have to consider here as well is that both Jones and Foster know the offense.  We don't know if Duke is picking it up quickly or not.  In addition, rookies (if we go that route) might need someone to help them pick up the offense.  So I don't see Jones as an automatic get the boot guy.  Knowing the offense is important.  Both Jones and Foster can help guys that are unfamiliar.

20 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Whether you hate or love Zay, he has been a massive disappointment. I think there is a chance he could get moved, and I think there is a chance that he could break out. But no one can really deny how terrible he's been. Sure we saw flashes here or there. For a high second round pick, it's simply not good enough. I hope he is better, or moved for an offensive lineman. 

 

Everyone on offense has.  So do we say the OL and the QB and a lack of running game held the WR's back or did the WR's hold the other parts back?  In any case, we do know the line needs serious upgrades.  We do need at least one other player at WR.  More importantly, we need bodies at TE.

Edited February 28, 2019 by NewEraBills

[MrEpsYtown]

8 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Everyone on offense has.  So do we say the OL and the QB and a lack of running game held the WR's back or did the WR's hold the other parts back?  In any case, we do know the line needs serious upgrades.  We do need at least one other player at WR.  More importantly, we need bodies at TE.

 

Zay blew a lot of opportunities. He should have had more, and that is on the rest of the offense. But he blew a lot of the ones he had, and that's why he is so disappointing in my eye. You can't be a playmaker if you can't make plays. A receiver who can't catch is worthless. If he is on the team this year, I hope he breaks out. 

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I think the other issue you have to consider here as well is that both Jones and Foster know the offense.  We don't know if Duke is picking it up quickly or not.  In addition, rookies (if we go that route) might need someone to help them pick up the offense.  So I don't see Jones as an automatic get the boot guy.  Knowing the offense is important.  Both Jones and Foster can help guys that are unfamiliar.

 

Thats a fair point, and we wont know that until later in the year.  Couple of things people keep missing from what I said (not saying you did, just in general in this thread).  

• I never said he would be cut, in my OP I said traded.  I said I think he will be traded, as he will have value.
• I said I thought the trade would happen during the preseaosn, perhaps just before final roster cuts.  
• I based this gut feeling on the notion we will add at least 2 more WR's in FA/Draft/Trades that would be relevant players (not depth WR's).  And could add 3, but I expect 2 more since we already added Duke too.  And I expect those guys to do some things better than Zay like catching and running routes.

The last one being the one that most applies to your comment.  My feeling is that we will add 2 guys expected to either start or compete to start.  I also believe Duke will be in the mix as well, another gut feeling. 

 

So with 3 guys vying to start (Foster and 2 new ones) plus Duke being a wildcard who could push to start, where does Zay come and do something better than the other 3 to 4 relevant guys?  So, you bring up a good point, it very well could be understanding the offense where Zay is ahead of some of them and that helps him stay higher on the depth chart, at least early in the season.  Thats actually the best point I have read in response to my thread so far.  

[NewEraBills]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Zay blew a lot of opportunities. He should have had more, and that is on the rest of the offense. But he blew a lot of the ones he had, and that's why he is so disappointing in my eye. You can't be a playmaker if you can't make plays. A receiver who can't catch is worthless. If he is on the team this year, I hope he breaks out. 

 

No argument there.  But let's not forget, a great deal of our WR's and TE's blew a lot of opportunities even Foster, who I always thought would make the roster, but early on he blew a lot of catches he should have made.  So I'm not disagreeing.  Just looking at the entire picture, Jones was no worse than anyone else we had last year and he was more consistent than his first season.  Last year, Allen was just getting into things and the OL was one of the worst in the league.  I think you have to let the process work itself out and see how things look with Allen with a year under his belt and a better OL; and Zay Jones where he needs to be, namely in the slot.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Zay blew a lot of opportunities. He should have had more, and that is on the rest of the offense. But he blew a lot of the ones he had, and that's why he is so disappointing in my eye. You can't be a playmaker if you can't make plays. A receiver who can't catch is worthless. If he is on the team this year, I hope he breaks out. 

 

This is my whole thing with him...the tape doesn't lie, stats lie in the NFL, but the tape doesn't.  He left a LOT of plays on the field, way more than you want to see from a starting WR.   

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is my whole thing with him...the tape doesn't lie, stats lie in the NFL, but the tape doesn't.  He left a LOT of plays on the field, way more than you want to see from a starting WR.   

My problem with Zay is he doesnt seem to make his stat plays when the GAME IS ON THE LINE

 

When the moment is big......I just dont hear his name a lot....this is strictly my opinion.

 

And he still drops balls he should catch which is maddening......he did not look like bust material last year though......that is how I expected him to look in his first year.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

My problem with Zay is he doesnt seem to make his stat plays when the GAME IS ON THE LINE

 

When the moment is big......I just dont hear his name a lot....this is strictly my opinion.

 

And he still drops balls he should catch which is maddening......he did not look like bust material last year though......that is how I expected him to look in his first year.

 

I think there is more fact than opinion in what you just said given he's come up short a lot in key moments or just been utterly invisible too often.  

 

And this thread is not about declaring him a bust, its always been about the belief I have they will find a better WR.  Doesnt mean Zay cant be a contributor or doesnt deserve to be on a roster.  I don't even think he's a bust.  I just think he could be an odd man out on this roster if we add the expected talent to the WR this offseason that I believe we will.  And not through a cut, but by trading him to get value while he has it.  If he is on the bench a lot in 2019, he will have much less trade value later.  So I think Beane would move him while he can get the most for him if 3 other WR's end up higher than him on the depth chart. 

Edited February 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7