Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/9/2019 at 11:14 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Thoughts?

 

Great work MrEps.  Not gonna quote the whole post, so much info in there and it’s a great breakdown.  I quoted this one because someone kept insisting NE was a good game for Zay while I kept insisting he was terrible if you watched the game.  

 

This post here illustrates why a stat box total is fools gold for conclusive and accurate information.  While Zays stat box looked like it was a good game, the actual context of the stats and game situation shows why it was really not a good game and he got some stats (all of his stats) when game was out of reach and the defensive pressure changed from shutting each play down to clock management and getting as much time off the clock.

 

On a good note for Zay, your analysis did show some other nice plays not easily identified by average or unimpressive stat box totals.  Like his TD in the Houston game which was a pretty big play and a great play by him.  That being said, it was also a great throw by Peterman, and Peterman still beyond sucks.  So a handful of good plays doesn’t erase all the concerns, but it is nice to see where Zay has had some good moments even when the stat box total may not have made it obvious.

 

In the end, Bills will be a better team if our WRs step up.  So not rooting against the kid, really hope he erases the concerns and excels this year.  I remain skeptical he can hold off the competition and will slip on depth chart a little for that.  That’s my only reason I think Beane trades him, to get value before a lesser role diminishes his trade value.

 

One thing people are grossly over looking on the Zay defense.  The 2020 WR draft is looking monstrous.  So it’s one more reason Beane may not want to hold onto a WR he doesn’t feel will be a long term player here and instead trade him for a draft asset that gives him more ammo to move around the draft to get one of these beasts coming out next year to pair with Allen the next 10 years.

 

That being said, it still is predicated by the other WRs stepping up like Duke, Sills, McKenzie, etc.  If they don’t, Zay will likely be safe for obvious reasons.

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The fair question would be, if Beasley's production dropped commensurate with the production Cooper added?  If so, the OP would be correct that Beasley stopped being a factor.  I looked, and the answer is "no".  Beasley's production dropped on average only about 1 reception for 7-ish yards.  Meanwhile Cooper added an average of 6 receptions for 80 ypg.

Clearly Beasley continued to be a factor, Cooper was also a factor, and as a consequence the 'Boys offensive production went up.  A lot.

 

It was actually 1 fewer catch and 14 fewer yards.  Cooper played the last 9 games with them.  But that's not a major change.  And he'll be the outlet receiver.

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.  

 

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

 

AJ Green's production dropped from 84 yards/game with Dalton to 65 with McCarron.  The QB does matter.

 

And again, Brown's role is to use his speed to get CBs and Ss away from the LOS.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

It was actually 1 fewer catch and 14 fewer yards.  Cooper played the last 9 games with them.  But that's not a major change.  And he'll be the outlet receiver.

 

 

AJ Green's production dropped from 84 yards/game with Dalton to 65 with McCarron.  The QB does matter.

 

And again, Brown's role is to use his speed to get CBs and Ss away from the LOS.

Right, and Dalton threw more than AJ.  

 

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

In the end, Bills will be a better team if our WRs step up.  So not rooting against the kid, really hope he erases the concerns and excels this year.  I remain skeptical he can hold off the competition and will slip on depth chart a little for that.  That’s my only reason I think Beane trades him, to get value before a lesser role diminishes his trade value.

 

One thing people are grossly over looking on the Zay defense.  The 2020 WR draft is looking monstrous.  So it’s one more reason Beane may not want to hold onto a WR he doesn’t feel will be a long term player here and instead trade him for a draft asset that gives him more ammo to move around the draft to get one of these beasts coming out next year to pair with Allen the next 10 years.

 

That being said, it still is predicated by the other WRs stepping up like Duke, Sills, McKenzie, etc.  If they don’t, Zay will likely be safe for obvious reasons.

 

So it seems to me that before Beane would trade Zay he would have to evaluate the play of the lower tier WRs.

When do you think that window in time would be?

 

Another question would be what "trade value" would you put on him?

Trading a WR at the dawn of a new season (unless a team had a horrible summer injury wise) is not going to get the value you may think.

In a perfect world a team would want that WR to spend the summer working with their offense.

If there was a couple of teams scrambling for a WR at the end of preseason wouldn't there also be teams looking to get value for WRs

that do not fit their long term plans too? 

 

I guess the point I'm making is that Zay Jones should be evaluated by Beane and McDermott on what he brings to the team this year and

the idea of dealing him off in some "strategic move" probably is a secondary consideration at best.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

People discount the Lamar stats because Lamar never attempted more than 25 passes in a game, and never completed more than 14. Pretty standard to assume that lower attempts would lower production. We're talking about a QB that had 170 pass attempts and 147 rush attempts. The entire format of their offense changed.

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right, and Dalton threw more than AJ.  

 

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

 

I see both Foster and Brown taking CBs and Ss away from the LOS.  And yes, he's a piece of the puzzle.  I don't think anyone is saying he's an AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I see both Foster and Brown taking CBs and Ss away from the LOS.  And yes, he's a piece of the puzzle.  I don't think anyone is saying he's an AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.

I think the point is exactly that he isn't AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.   If he isn't any of those, he isn't a guaranteed starter.  If he isn't a legit number one, he's in competition with every other receiver to be the number two, and some of those guys are better route runners and some of them have better hands.   That's EXACTLY the point.   

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And FOSTER's role can be to get CBs and Ss away from the line of scrimmage.  I'm not dissing Brown, but everything points to him being, at most, a piece of a larger puzzle.  He isn't likely to be the answer at #1.  

 

There's nothing wrong with Foster and Brown offering the same skill set. It's a very important skill set and there's no such thing as too much speed on the outside. Personally I am hoping they just build a vertical offense. Obviously Allen needs to get better at choosing his shots, the check down to the RB or TE or Beasley will sometimes be the better choice. But I don't want to see us try to build a dink and dunk offense. I want our receivers 15+ yards down the field more often than not. Why not play around what Allen does well?

 

I don't expect us to have a true #1 this year but I think Brown and Foster will essentially double as our #1.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This post here illustrates why a stat box total is fools gold for conclusive and accurate information.  While Zays stat box looked like it was a good game, the actual context of the stats and game situation shows why it was really not a good game and he got some stats (all of his stats) when game was out of reach and the defensive pressure changed from shutting each play down to clock management and getting as much time off the clock.

 

Well enough, but here's the question: when looking at comparable non-star WR around the league, does one do a similar "deep dive" to exclude their "good games"?

 

I take the point that stats alone can mislead one as to a player's impact, but it seems to me dissecting his play minutely without context can be equally misleading in a different way.

 

As a broad brush, if a game is a blowout, it means the play of the whole team sucks, the OL sucks, the QB has no time to throw and/or sucks, none of the WR may be getting much in the way of chances.  Likewise if we're blowing them out, everyone's stats are "padded".  Over a season, it seems to me, both those situations pretty much even out for all players.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.

 

Interesting example.  I've watched all McCarron's games when Dalton went down and I have two comments:

1) it's clear the Bills picked up McCarron because of what they saw there.  He had protection, and he was able to execute the Bengal's offense capably for the most part.

He missed some throws Dalton would have taken and threw more uncatchable balls because of being slow with the read, but that comes with time.  He looked as though he could play.  The play of two raw rookies (even rookies with far higher ceiling) like Jackson and Allen is not comparable.  Especially Jackson.  So I got to disagree with your take.

2) AJ Green was, maybe still is, a true star-of-stars at WR.  He has been the making of the not-overly-accurate Dalton since they were both drafted.  With a good QB all his career, he'd be walking into Canton.  What AJ Green can accomplish with a lesser QB, and what ordinary mortal decent NFL WR can accomplish with a lesser QB, are probably not comparable.

So I got to disagree with your take there too.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

 

On the other hand, this is a fair take - neither of these guys are Larry Fitzgerald or AJ Green, true #1s who can adjust and raise their game to compensate for a limited QB.

 

But there's still the point that if the ball isn't being thrown, or not thrown where a human can catch it, or not thrown to the correct route dictated by the coverage the WR sees, no WR can compensate.  So less able QB still hinder any WR's ability to produce.

[Doc]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the point is exactly that he isn't AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Jones.   If he isn't any of those, he isn't a guaranteed starter.  If he isn't a legit number one, he's in competition with every other receiver to be the number two, and some of those guys are better route runners and some of them have better hands.   That's EXACTLY the point.   

 

We'll agree to disagree.  This has little to do with him not being those guys and more about him being the highest-paid and most accomplished WR currently on the roster.

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

There's nothing wrong with Foster and Brown offering the same skill set. It's a very important skill set and there's no such thing as too much speed on the outside. Personally I am hoping they just build a vertical offense. Obviously Allen needs to get better at choosing his shots, the check down to the RB or TE or Beasley will sometimes be the better choice. But I don't want to see us try to build a dink and dunk offense. I want our receivers 15+ yards down the field more often than not. Why not play around what Allen does well?

 

I don't expect us to have a true #1 this year but I think Brown and Foster will essentially double as our #1.

 

I agree with the whole premise.  Being that Foster had limited college play (35 receptions in 4 years) and only 27 last year why can't

they use Brown and Foster "together" sharing 1 WR spot to start the season.

They could each spell each other while they push down field on a large number of plays throughout the game.

 

So in my mind it's OK for Foster to spell Brown and also line up opposite Brown SOMETIMES but this way you break in Foster

slowly until he gains more experience which he lacks right now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

People discount the Lamar stats because Lamar never attempted more than 25 passes in a game, and never completed more than 14. Pretty standard to assume that lower attempts would lower production. We're talking about a QB that had 170 pass attempts and 147 rush attempts. The entire format of their offense changed.

 

A fair point, but to it: Josh Allen had 7 of 12 games where he attempted 26 or fewer passes - 4 of 'em less than 20 attempts. 

He never completed more than 20 passes per game (only once that high).  He had 6 games where he completed 15 or less.

He had 320 pass attempts, and 89 rushing attempts - between 1/4 and 1/3.

So that's not quite LJax territory, but you can see it from there.  That would also kind of impact what a WR can do, no?

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

We'll agree to disagree.  This has little to do with him not being those guys and more about him being the highest-paid and most accomplished WR currently on the roster.

 

So, when McDermott says something like "everything is earned, nothing is given", you feel he's not talking about earning playing time by competition?

He's lying through his teeth whilst actually writing the depth chart by contract size?

 

Quality FA always get overpaid.  At this point, we have to pay a premium to get offensive skill players to sign here, 'cuz unproven QB and offense.

I choose to believe McDermott means what he says and says what he means about earning it.  Re accomplished, I think it's fair to go back 2 years, maybe 3,

It's chill, we can disagree.

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A fair point, but to it: Josh Allen had 7 of 12 games where he attempted 26 or fewer passes - 4 of 'em less than 20 attempts. 

He never completed more than 20 passes per game (only once that high).  He had 6 games where he completed 15 or less.

He had 320 pass attempts, and 89 rushing attempts - between 1/4 and 1/3.

So that's not quite LJax territory, but you can see it from there.  That would also kind of impact what a WR can do, no?

 

 

That seems like a taboo subject.

 

My eyeballs tell me that Allen has far more potential as a passer, but I really don't get the LJAX hate. He's a guy with a unique skill set. Not a prototypical NFL QB so he's going to need a distinct gameplan. Roman is probably a great get for them. I think he'll be far more effective than people on this board seem to think.

 

And just like Mayfield, it has NOTHING to do with Josh.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...somebody here did some great analytical research into breking down Zay's stats, which I believed showed some garbage time enhancements...Cliff Notes Version IMO says it is a brand new year and put up or pack.....

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So, when McDermott says something like "everything is earned, nothing is given", you feel he's not talking about earning playing time by competition?

He's lying through his teeth whilst actually writing the depth chart by contract size?

 

Quality FA always get overpaid.  At this point, we have to pay a premium to get offensive skill players to sign here, 'cuz unproven QB and offense.

I choose to believe McDermott means what he says and says what he means about earning it.  Re accomplished, I think it's fair to go back 2 years, maybe 3,

It's chill, we can disagree.

 

Yeah I think McD doesn't always tell the truth.  Like with his process.  He's brought in players that don't fit it.  Or maybe that's Beane's doing?

 

In any case, I don't see Zay beating-out either Brown, Beasley or Foster for one of the three starting spots, so in this instance he could be telling the truth.  And I think that if he were happy with Zay, he'd only have signed Beasley. 

Edited May 11, 2019 by Doc

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

Yeah I think McD doesn't always tell the truth.  Like with his process.  He's brought in players that don't fit it.

 

I think when we see players who don't fit it, they don't fit our understanding but McDermott sees something else.  But anyway.  We agree to disagree, you think the paycheck indicates rank on the depth chart and playing time, I think the paycheck won't help Brown if he doesn't haul in more balls than the others.  He'll be on the team, sure, but not necessarily start.

 

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

But in this case, I don't see Zay beating-out either Brown, Beasley or Foster for one of the three starting spots, so in this instance he could be telling the truth.  And I think that if he were happy with Zay, he'd only have signed Beasley. 

 

We disagree there too.  Foster was a very limited player last year.  Not a good blocker, limited route tree.  Zay is far more rounded as a player.  Foster made some great plays - but he also missed a number of deep balls because he's still struggling to track the ball and he slows for a few steps when he looks back to find it.  Brown never does that, he runs a great deep ball route, and he runs a full route tree.  If Brown's still got his speed, it's Foster who's gonna be challenged IMO.

On the "happy with Zay...only signed Beasley..." - with all grace and kindness, You're Nuts.  We badly badly needed depth and competition in our WR room.   There will be injuries, it's inevitable.  I wish we'd signed more guys who've shown they can play.  Daboll probably does too.

[Doc]

If Brown drops everything thrown to him, or refuses to practice, or can't learnt the playbook, yeah, he likely sits.  But I don't envision him suddenly doing that.

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well enough, but here's the question: when looking at comparable non-star WR around the league, does one do a similar "deep dive" to exclude their "good games"?

 

I take the point that stats alone can mislead one as to a player's impact, but it seems to me dissecting his play minutely without context can be equally misleading in a different way.

 

As a broad brush, if a game is a blowout, it means the play of the whole team sucks, the OL sucks, the QB has no time to throw and/or sucks, none of the WR may be getting much in the way of chances.  Likewise if we're blowing them out, everyone's stats are "padded".  Over a season, it seems to me, both those situations pretty much even out for all players.

 

This is true, nothing wrong with what you said.  

 

However, when Zay ONLY shows up in these end game moments that don’t matter or only against the weaker opposition, it’s concerning.  While all WRs benefit from these same situations, they also contribute more overall throughout the season, in tougher/closer games, in important moments, etc. Especially when you see an UDFA throw down three 100 yard games in his last 7 and be a big part of wins or close losses while Zay has really done none of that or very little over 2 years as a starter.  

 

Zay has had less than 40 yards in over 70% of his career games.  He doesn’t have the resume to get the benefit of the doubt.  He has also hurt us badly in multiple games this year and last year that directly contributed to our loss because he didn’t make the play when he needed to.

 

So when we see him make plays when the game is all but decided and fail to often when we really needed him to make the play, it’s concerning.  

 

At the end of the day, Zay hasn’t been a guy we can count on.  He has to change that and show he can be or he won’t be here.  

Edited May 11, 2019 by Alphadawg7