Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Thread will be 75 pages by Week 1.

Only if Zay Jones is still on the team

 

..

 

Edited May 10, 2019 by HOUSE

[BuffaloHokie13]

53 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Doesn't work for you, I hear you (though I wasn't proposing a trade.  Vikes keep Cook and add Shady.)

 

WR and RB are different in that a lot of the WR position depends more on craft and skill.

Except....if you're wanting a guy as a burner, a speed guy...then that age-related slow-up rears its head.

I know, even if Shady is 100% he wouldn't be the best on the team. That was my point. That's true for that RB situation, not our WR situation.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in Beasley myself. I’m hoping Foster and some combination of Brown and Jones are the main 3.

 

Say more -- why not?

 

It's pretty clear from the contract the Bills signed with him, that they're putting the most faith in Beasley of the WR signed (neither of which, admittedly, were big contracts in the Wr scheme of things).  Longer contract, bigger signing bonus, bigger injury guarantee, some more dead money if they part ways after this season.

 

 

[GoBills808]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Say more -- why not?

 

It's pretty clear from the contract the Bills signed with him, that they're putting the most faith in Beasley of the WR signed (neither of which, admittedly, were big contracts in the Wr scheme of things).  Longer contract, bigger signing bonus, bigger injury guarantee, some more dead money if they part ways after this season.

 

 

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

 

He had about 1 catch and 14 yards fewer per game after Cooper arrived.  Which is to be expected.

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

Disagree.I think Beasley will be a 3rd down monster for this team. I would not be surprised if he ended up having the most receptions by the end of the season at all.

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective 

Define effective. Every offense needs a singles hitter. He's a guy I expect the offense to go to in high leverage down and distance situations. He would need a lot of targets in order to put up 1000 yards. He doesn't need a lot of targets to be effective.

[GoBills808]

37 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Define effective. Every offense needs a singles hitter. He's a guy I expect the offense to go to in high leverage down and distance situations. He would need a lot of targets in order to put up 1000 yards. He doesn't need a lot of targets to be effective.

 

That would be fine w/ me. I’m just not expecting a ton from him. 

46 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

He had about 1 catch and 14 yards fewer per game after Cooper arrived.  Which is to be expected.

That’s significant even percentage wise, and not counting how Prescott stopped going to him in important spots.

45 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Disagree.I think Beasley will be a 3rd down monster for this team. I would not be surprised if he ended up having the most receptions by the end of the season at all.

Hope so on the 3rd down thing, but imo if he’s the leading receiver the offense won’t be very good.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Because I watched him with the Cowboys and he was an afterthought once Cooper arrived. He needs lots of targets (for a 2nd/3rd option) to be effective whereas Brown and Foster don’t. I think he will be limited in usage, particularly in this offense. 

 

Hmmm.  Cooper trade was about halfway through the season, right?

 

 

Looks like 36 receptions on 47 targets for 366 yds BC (before Cooper), 29 receptions on 40 targets for 306 yds AC (after Cooper).

 

That'd be about 1 fewer target and reception per game, and about 7.6 fewer yards per game.

Looks as though his stats dipped immediately after Cooper arrived, and then rose again (perhaps as teams got Prescott to Cooper on film and adjusted)

 

Still looks kinda relevant to me.

 

I don't think he's a #1 WR, I just think he's the surest bet on this year's WR corps to be a starter and contributor.

 

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hmmm.  Cooper trade was about halfway through the season, right?

 

 

Looks like 36 receptions on 47 targets for 366 yds BC (before Cooper), 29 receptions on 40 targets for 306 yds AC (after Cooper).

 

That'd be about 1 fewer target and reception per game, and about 7.6 fewer yards per game.

Looks as though his stats dipped immediately after Cooper arrived, and then rose again (perhaps as teams got Prescott to Cooper on film and adjusted)

 

Still looks kinda relevant to me.

 

I don't think he's a #1 WR, I just think he's the surest bet on this year's WR corps to be a starter and contributor.

 

We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic but I don’t see him having a big impact.

[Richard Noggin]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

All true, but to either ? on your parade or bring in data (depending upon POV), last year with Flacco he was a 50-52% catch % guy.  Now maybe that's because Flacco wasn't throwing the most accurate passes.  Who we got under center who throws lasers?  Brown's productivity dropped after game 7, whilst LJax started after game 10.  Why?

 

Since you mention QB switch: in an attempt to bring apples-to-apples, I pulled Zay Jones numbers for the last 7 games with a QB still on the Bills throwing to him (Barkley or Allen).  I think that's fair: I excluded Allen's pre-injury games as a "rookie learning curve" and Peterman/Anderson because I don't think either of them could actually play QB last year.  Then I pulled John Brown's numbers with Flacco (again, excluding LJax as a "rookie learning curve").  All data are from pro-football reference.  The comparison is 7 games (Zay) to 9 games (Brown).

 

Boy, I can sure see who is the shoo-in starting WR:

 

I hate bringing this stuff up, I really do.  I'm speaking God's Truth when I say I like John Brown, he had a sure-fire fantastic season with Palmer in 2016, and I hope to hell he can return to that kind of form for us.  It just puzzles me why we look at Zay Jones and dis him off as "not good enough" and are all over John Brown who had similar #s, as a lock at starter.

That's a great post. Numbers can really eff up narratives. Like mine. (Sort of.)

 

It's also possible to look at your grid there and interpret that to mean Zay Jones isn't the steaming pile of dung many want him to be because McD traded up for him or some other such unfair preconception. I like them both, for the record. Two solid contributors who are NOT #1s but can both be productive cogs in an offensive machine.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

It's also possible to look at your grid there and interpret that to mean Zay Jones isn't the steaming pile of dung many want him to be because McD traded up for him or some other such unfair preconception. I like them both, for the record. Two solid contributors who are NOT #1s but can both be productive cogs in an offensive machine.

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 

To be fair to Zay, he spent his rookie season with QBs who were NOT admired for their passing game around here, and last year he played with a QB Carousel with a raw rookie and a couple of poor passers in several of the slots.

I agree with your bottom line take.   I have high hopes for an improved WR corps this year.

[Richard Noggin]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 

To be fair to Zay, he spent his rookie season with QBs who were NOT admired for their passing game around here, and last year he played with a QB Carousel with a raw rookie and a couple of poor passers in several of the slots.

I agree with your bottom line take.   I have high hopes for an improved WR corps this year.

Zay WAS complete shite his rookie season. No doubt. Discombobulated is the word that comes to mind.

 

But he has shown flashes now of actual playmaking ability. Like he could be an excellent #3 or #4 option, which is what he could/should be this year. 

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic but I don’t see him having a big impact.

Just sounds like you’re a Beasley hater.  And that’s fine.  After reading through the thread, you don’t seem to backup anything that you’ve said.  Just say, “I think he’s a bum and I don’t need a reason”

Edited May 11, 2019 by NewEra

[Doc]

6 hours ago, NewEra said:

Just sounds like you’re a Beasley hater.  And that’s fine.  After reading through the thread, you don’t seem to backup anything that you’ve said.  Just say, “I think he’s a bum and I don’t need a reason”

 

The reason is that Beasley's production dropped after they added Cooper.  Which is to be expected (since they would want to throw more to Cooper seeing as how they gave up a 1st rounder for him) so I'm not sure why it's a knock against Beasley. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

The reason is that Beasley's production dropped after they added Cooper.  Which is to be expected (since they would want to throw more to Cooper seeing as how they gave up a 1st rounder for him) so I'm not sure why it's a knock against Beasley. 

 

The fair question would be, if Beasley's production dropped commensurate with the production Cooper added?  If so, the OP would be correct that Beasley stopped being a factor.  I looked, and the answer is "no".  Beasley's production dropped on average only about 1 reception for 7-ish yards.  Meanwhile Cooper added an average of 6 receptions for 80 ypg.

Clearly Beasley continued to be a factor, Cooper was also a factor, and as a consequence the 'Boys offensive production went up.  A lot.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Zay WAS complete shite his rookie season. No doubt. Discombobulated is the word that comes to mind.

 

But he has shown flashes now of actual playmaking ability. Like he could be an excellent #3 or #4 option, which is what he could/should be this year. 

 

Possibly better. 

 

Our offense started this past season with its own form of discombobulated and served up a complete disaster, a raw rookie, and a marginal player with nothing left in the tank on its way to settling in with flashes of brilliance but many limitations to its game (cant rush can't block...what do ya do? -Adam Ant)

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair to folks here, Zay created his own unfair preconception by having a craptastic rookie season. 
 

This is one example of how fan perception of players is skewed by rookie performance.  Brown is another.   He burst on the scene, produced multiple spectacular highlights.  Now some people Zay is horrible and Brown is a couple of seasons from the Hall of Fame.   (And I'd say Ziggy is another'  Every year some edge rusher splashes into the NFL and looks like a world beater, but very few of them remain dominant beyond a few years.)

 

I didn't fall into the Zay trap.  I was willing to see what he did in his second year before writing him off, and in his second year he showed plenty of signs of being a solid NFL receiver.  I did fall into the Brown trap; I was excited when the Bills signed him and thought they had made the move that will change the receiving corps.   Then I started thinking about it, looking at his stats, reading what people were saying here, and I realized I had drunk the Brown Kool-Aid.   

 

The Bills' receiver room is full of good stories, good potential but only one proven player - Beasley.   Brown could have big impact if the process turns him into something he has.  Jones could be an important piece of the puzzle if the process continues to help him improve.  Ditto Foster.  Williams has the tools to have significant impact, like a Boldin, if the process etc.  Sills the same.   It's a bunch of question marks, and I've stopped thinking ANY of them is going to take a major step forward.   My sense is the Bills need Beasley to be what everyone thinks he is AND the Bills need someone, ideally some two, to take serious steps forward.   

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think it's telling that folks who back up their opinion on Brown, discount games with Jackson as QB, with the rationale that Jackson's passing game was too limited to allow fair e v a l of him.  But the same applies to Zay much of this past season. 

 

Actually, I view these facts about the two of them the opposite way.  I think the fact that they had poor production when the less able QBs were on the field as a comment on the RECEIVERS.  I think it speaks to their limitations.   AJ Green didn't stop catching pass when McCarron replaced Dalton in 2015.   His production went down, but that was because McCarron was throwing less than Dalton.  

 

Good players are good players, and you can see it in them  even when the players around them aren't so hot.  Sometimes you have to look a little harder, like at Shady when no one is blocking for him, but they're still good and you still see what makes them good.  

 

So I'd say that both Zay and Brown are the guys their ENTIRE output has shown them to be, which is receivers that have, so far, failed to rise to the expectations that coaches and fans had for them.  As be the two, Zay gets a bit more of a pass, because he's only been at it for two seasons.  If by now Brown has emerged as a serious threat, a legitimate number one, it's relatively unlikely that it will happen in the future.  

[Shaw66]

Looks like you tried to respond to your own post and it turned into an edit.   Here's what you said:

 

Quote

It's my opinion that Beane (and hopefully this means Daboll) sees our offense ideally shaking out similar to the Panthers and the Patriots some years, with 3-5 guys between 500-800 yds receiving and no clear #1.  That would be fine.   The identification of those 5 as (alpha order) Beasley, Brown, Foster, Jones, and (a TE or another WR) is likely correct, barring injury or acquisition.

If, in contrast, the Bills signed Brown believing he would come in and be a true #1 WR unless {disaster} because he's the highest paid guy we got, that's Some Scary Sh** indicative of continued WR e v a l problems.  Because he's never been a #1 WR, not even in his best two seasons, and he's only paid highly relative to the Bills payroll, not to what top WR actually pull down in this league.

 

I think you are exactly right about this.  Exactly.   I think your first paragraph describes what the Bills are trying to do with the receivers.  And, to repeat what I've said dozens of times in the past six months, they are mimicking the Patriots.  

 

The Bills are all about scheme.  That's certainly how the defense plays.  And that's what they seem to be doing on the offense.   They are going to play receiver by committee, and receivers are going to succeed, if they do, because the scheme gets them open and the scheme allows Allen to know when and where they will get open.   The beauty of playing a scheme like that is that you can play it without star receivers, if the receivers are fundamentally sound and do their jobs (and if the QB masters the concepts and makes the throws).   Any of these guys we're talking about - Brown, Foster, Jones, and I think Williams for sure and Sills, can be nicely productive in a good scheme.   Frankly, that's exactly what we saw from Foster last season, and from Zay perhaps to a lesser extent.   Against certain defensive sets, with certain play calls, Foster had a real advantage, Allen knew it and found him.  I think that describes Zay's better games, as well.  

 

The additional beauty of playing a scheme like that you can always have a good receiving corps, because you don't need star receivers to make it work.  Then you can hunt in free agency and the draft for the guy with better talent who is not a prima donna, plug him into the system, and BINGO!, you have something special.   The Patriots keep trying to do that.  They had some success plugging Moss into the system, no success with Chad Johnson or Gordon.  But they tried.   They had big success with Gronk - a special talent who willingly adapted to the system.   And Edelman, who in some ways is a limited receiver with a few exceptional skills that make him really tough in the system.   

 

I keep coming back to what McBeane say - this is a process that takes years, and they aren't done.  They're building and building and they expect the team to continue to get better.  I think if you get them to talk completely frankly about it, they'd tell you that this team is headed in the right direction but hasn't learned enough yet and doesn't have enough talent yet.