Kelly the Dog Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Kelly, let me make a little analogy that may help you and a couple others with this viewpoint understand another point of view. Or it may not. There's no question that speed kills in the NFL. Supposing we were a hopeful contender inneed of a good RB. The Vikings maybe? They were 30th in the league for rushing last year. They have Cook and Murray. An improved run game would balance their hoped-for pass attack. But don't get fixated on the team. You're a Vikings fan. Suppose THEY JUST SIGNED LESEAN MCCOY! Suppose Buffalo released him per Leroy NFL Insider (work with me here, it's a scenario). Vikes signed him. Do you say: 1) OMG swoon! he's Truth. Six 1000+ yard seasons. Instant starter, proven ability to get to the second level and break big runs. Changes defenses drastically. 2) I guess? I hope? He's past the age when many a speedy elusive RB "falls off the cliff" and loses his burst, "That was Then, This is Now", let's see what he's still got. Awesome, thanks a bunch for the link and the gouge. That is way way higher than I would have guessed from my memory for Daboll, and way way lower than I would have guessed for Dennison. (For those who don't use it, first number is # backs, second is # TE. Given 5 OL and a QB, 5 - (the sum of those numbers) = number of WR) The Bills are not giving a speed WR $30m without knowing he still has that speed.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: The Bills are not giving a speed WR $30m without knowing he still has that speed. The Bills are not giving John Brown $30M But putting aside the difference between $11.x M and $30M as a mere quibble....what is a club allowed to do to work out a FA? They can watch his film from last year. They can give him a physical exam, which I think is restricted in scope. I don't think a vested veteran can be given a timed workout in pads. But I could be wrong. Even there though...a workout, vs a game, vs a long season are all different. Back to my analogy, Vikings Fan (I jest, I jest): your team just signed McCoy. You worked him out, and in a jersey on a nice day, he still had it. Does that mean he'll still have it in pads for 60 minutes during the season, week after week?
BuffaloHokie13 Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: The Bills are not giving John Brown $30M But putting aside the difference between $11.x M and $30M as a mere quibble....what is a club allowed to do to work out a FA? They can watch his film from last year. They can give him a physical exam, which I think is restricted in scope. I don't think a vested veteran can be given a timed workout in pads. But I could be wrong. Even there though...a workout, vs a game, vs a long season are all different. Back to my analogy, Vikings Fan (I jest, I jest): your team just signed McCoy. You worked him out, and in a jersey on a nice day, he still had it. Does that mean he'll still have it in pads for 60 minutes during the season, week after week? The problem I have with this analogy is that RB and WR are pretty different, even when it comes to age. Also, I would trade Shady for Dalvin Cook in a heartbeat.
Rochesterfan Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 19 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said: Thank you. I think the dissappearing act is the issue. You can't be a number 2-3 receiver in the NFL and have zero catch games, or 3 catches for twenty yards. I understand what you are saying and thanks for the earlier work - although it shows a bit more than a couple of good games and the games got better as Josh Allen returned and started to get better. As to the statement above - there are many cases of that not being true and our own Sammy Watkins is the poster child of a number 2 that has 0 catch games and other games with 1-3 catches for less than 30 yards - even in high pass percentage attacks. Others that have had similar games, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Brandon Cooks, etc. I agree Zay disappears to much, but the numbers support him being a 2-3 in the league - he is not alone in disappearing. 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 ...45 pages of Zay?........infringing on Tuhrod levels........... 1
ngbills Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 Zay does not get cut. He is more likely to be the top WR target next year. This team has no #1 WR its a bunch of 2's and 3's or slots. I see Zay being a primary target. Beasley catches a lot of underneath balls so hard to say how that will fit in. Brown will get less rec but expect more big plays and could be leading WR in yds. My prediction: Zay: 70 rec, 800 yds, 7 td's Brown: 50 rec, 900 yds, 5 td's Beasley: 45 rec, 550 yds, 5 td's Last three seasons: Zay: 83 Rec, 968 yds, 9 td's, 0 100 yd games, 2 multi td games, 4 5+ rec games Brown: 63 rec, 1014 yds, 8 td's, 2 100 yd games, 0 multi td games, 1 5+ rec games Beasley: 101 rec, 986 yds, 7 td's, 1 100 yd games, 3 multi td games, 4 5+ rec games
Shaw66 Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Awesome, thanks a bunch for the link and the gouge. That is way way higher than I would have guessed from my memory for Daboll, and way way lower than I would have guessed for Dennison. (For those who don't use it, first number is # backs, second is # TE. Given 5 OL and a QB, 5 - (the sum of those numbers) = number of WR) I never knew that. So is 10 1 back and 4 wide? Do they call it 10?
Rochesterfan Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said: I will add, that I do not believe in #1,2,3 receivers in the E-P system. I think all of that is garbage. I believe that receivers should have roles because the offense requires complimentary pieces. To me Brown, Beasley, and Foster have pretty clear roles. I'm interested to see how it plays out with Zay, Sills, Williams, and Easley. Josh Allen is the offensive star of this team. The guys who can get where they need to be and catch the ball when it is thrown to them are the guys who are going to make the team. I agree with this fully - I also believe - as I stated earlier in this thread that Zay actually has the most flexibility as he has already played all the other positions in this system last year. Early - with KB here - Zay was playing a lot of the outside speed (Foster) position. Later - with Foster emerging- he shifted to both the outside route guy and a slot guy depending upon need. I think Beasley is strictly a slot guy in this system. Both Brown and Foster can play outside roles, but Zay I think allows for the flexibility to fit in at any of the spots as needed. You just can not expect him to be the number 1 guy getting all the #1 CB coverage - he is not beating that, but let him flex in and get a miss match like he was getting versus Miami and he can give you average numbers. Where everything changes is if Duke or Sills (or even McKenzie) suddenly brings something new to the party and make it difficult to get rid of or try to PS them - then someone like Zay or Brown, or even Foster could find their way out the door. 1
Doc Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 3 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said: This seems like a reasonable take to me, but it also flies in the face of which this thread is about which is Zay not making the roster, which to me is ridiculous. I would say odds are higher Zay starts then Zay not being on the roster I agree as well. But I still say he doesn't start. 3 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Wait. Hap already has shown that $8 million is what a second wideout gets. So you don't think it means something that no team was willing to pay him more than 5, including the Cardinals? And the Bills were the only team willing to pay him 8? The Patriots couldn't use him? Brown hasn't fulfilled his promise. McDermott knows that. Brown will have to prove himself like everyone else, and he was unable to prove himself at either of his last two teams. Oh, and you think wideouts blocking isn't important to McDermott? He only talks about it just about every time he talks about receivers. It doesn't matter that Brown's salary is what 2nd wideouts get. Zay's is far lower that his. Both Brown and Beasley are the highest paid WR's on the team so, again, barring something unforeseen, they'll be starting. 1
BruceVilanch Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 34 minutes ago, ngbills said: Zay does not get cut. He is more likely to be the top WR target next year. This team has no #1 WR its a bunch of 2's and 3's or slots. I see Zay being a primary target. Beasley catches a lot of underneath balls so hard to say how that will fit in. Brown will get less rec but expect more big plays and could be leading WR in yds. My prediction: Zay: 70 rec, 800 yds, 7 td's Brown: 50 rec, 900 yds, 5 td's Beasley: 45 rec, 550 yds, 5 td's Last three seasons: Zay: 83 Rec, 968 yds, 9 td's, 0 100 yd games, 2 multi td games, 4 5+ rec games Brown: 63 rec, 1014 yds, 8 td's, 2 100 yd games, 0 multi td games, 1 5+ rec games Beasley: 101 rec, 986 yds, 7 td's, 1 100 yd games, 3 multi td games, 4 5+ rec games Where does Foster factor in?
ngbills Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Jeetz1231 said: Where does Foster factor in? I would say right below those guys - 50 rec and 500-600 yds. A guy gets hurt and it all changes obviously.
Shaw66 Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Doc said: I agree as well. But I still say he doesn't start. It doesn't matter that Brown's salary is what 2nd wideouts get. Zay's is far lower that his. Both Brown and Beasley are the highest paid WR's on the team so, again, barring something unforeseen, they'll be starting. What do you think this is, college admissions? He with the most bucks wins? Starters aren't determined by how much they're getting paid. But how much a free agent gets paid is some indication of how highly the league values him. Brown has been a free agent for two years running and no one is paying him even high number 2 money. That says something to me about how valuable the guy must be. Edited May 10, 2019 by Shaw66
Doc Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, Jeetz1231 said: Where does Foster factor in? Starter, opposite Brown. 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: What do you think this is, college admissions? He w I Th the most backs wins? Starters aren't determined by how much they're getting paid. But how much a free agent gets paid is some indication of how highly the league values him. Brown has been a free agent for two years running and no one is paying him even high number 2 money. That says something to me about how valuable the guy must be. If a team goes out and signs players and pays them the most money at their positions, they're almost always starting. Doesn't matter how much the rest of the league values them. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted May 10, 2019 Author Posted May 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, HOUSE said: What was the question again, seems fuzzy now I go away a day or two slammed with work and come back and its a John Brown discussion. Ha, love it. Regardless of the final week 1 outcome, I have truly loved this thread. PS: Want to see why I was busy? I just turned Billy Ray Cyrus into a weed nug for his new music video! Yes, not football, but who cares, I am excited to show it. I own BurnTV and Nug Nation is one of our properties and its a stop motion animated comedy series where all the characters are made out of real weed. Billy Ray Cyrus called and asked if we would make his new music video all in our Nug Nation world. And it dropped today! #ShamelessThreadPlug #ImOKwithIT https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/country/8510894/billy-ray-cyrus-angel-in-my-pocket-video https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-country/billy-ray-cyrus-weed-angel-in-my-pocket-video-833709/ 4
John from Riverside Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 1 hour ago, ngbills said: I would say right below those guys - 50 rec and 500-600 yds. A guy gets hurt and it all changes obviously. My prediction? Robert Foster takes the next step and becomes a bonafied number 1 receiver this next year.......with at least 2 other WR's making big contributions 1
GoBills808 Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in Beasley myself. I’m hoping Foster and some combination of Brown and Jones are the main 3.
Aussie Joe Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...45 pages of Zay?........infringing on Tuhrod levels........... Thread will be 75 pages by Week 1. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: The problem I have with this analogy is that RB and WR are pretty different, even when it comes to age. Also, I would trade Shady for Dalvin Cook in a heartbeat. Doesn't work for you, I hear you (though I wasn't proposing a trade. Vikes keep Cook and add Shady.) WR and RB are different in that a lot of the WR position depends more on craft and skill. Except....if you're wanting a guy as a burner, a speed guy...then that age-related slow-up rears its head.
ColoradoBills Posted May 10, 2019 Posted May 10, 2019 3 hours ago, Foxx said: 73% of the time they were in 11 (3wr) grouping. whereas the previous year, '17 (Dennison) they were 41% 11 grouping (3wr). 2018 Personnel Grouping Frequency Thanks for the link. 1
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