Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I give it 50/50 odds at this point.  If he's full go and uninjured through training camp and preseason is Hurdle #1, if he still shows his speed and burst is Hurdle #2, and then he has to catch what Allen throws better than other guys is Hurdle #3.

Look, Stank, everyone is entitled to a different view, and I can respect yours, but please quit with the script that anyone who doesn't agree with you is just lacking in "common sense", OK?  People can legit have a different analysis.

 

That's Hurdle #1 for every player, not Brown.  If he's healthy going into the season, and there's no reason to believe he won't be (at least any more than any other player), he starts.

[CaptnCoke11]

He’s absolutely going to start at outside WR.. People here who can’t comprehend that is baffling to me.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

That's Hurdle #1 for every player, not Brown.  If he's healthy going into the season, and there's no reason to believe he won't be (at least any more than any other player), he starts.

 

a. Age.  Young guys tend to get hurt less and heal faster (generalization I know - Watkins for example)

b. History.  Guys who have a history of injury a couple years in a row, sometimes are snake-bit.   Sometimes it shows their bodies aren't NFL-tough.

c. Diagnosed condition (sickle cell trait) that may make an athlete more prone to problems under physical stress

 

So yes, it applies to every player, but it's more concern for some than others (see above)

 

1 minute ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

He’s absolutely going to start at outside WR.. People here who can’t comprehend that is baffling to me.  

 

Right, because everyone should just agree with you or they're obviously lacking in comprehension and football smarts. 

We can all go home now, CaptnCoke has pronounced.

[Stank_Nasty]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I give it 50/50 odds at this point.  If he's full go and uninjured through training camp and preseason is Hurdle #1, if he still shows his speed and burst is Hurdle #2, and then he has to catch what Allen throws better than other guys is Hurdle #3.

Look, Stank, everyone is entitled to a different view, and I can respect yours, but please quit with the script that anyone who doesn't agree with you is just lacking in "common sense", OK?  People can legit have a different analysis.

that doesn't mean it makes a ton of sense.... I've seen your numbers. i'll acknowledge them. they shed a very small light on any brown and jones comparison, but the dude was paid to come in and start...… you don't pay a guy 9 mil to just come in and compete with a squad that was AWFUL last year. 

 

50/50 is completely mind blowing to me. no idea how you are seeing that.  barring injury i'd say 90/10.... go ahead and have your analysis. to me that 50/50 shows how flawed it is.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

do you think brown is starting week 1 or not? people are writing freaking novels on here about the details that have to do with words such as "automatic" or "lock"....

 

again, does anyone honestly think john brown isn't starting week 1? does anyone believe he wasn't expected to be a starter when signed? of course he'll have to compete. I would hope that's ALWAYS the case. that's common sense. will he be starting week 1? yes..... IMO that's common sense as well.

If I'm handicapping all the receivers, Beasley is my most likely to start, Brown is second and Foster and Zay are a push for the third spot. I'd say Brown has a 50-60% chance of starting. 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

If I'm handicapping all the receivers, Beasley is my most likely to start, Brown is second and Foster and Zay are a push for the third spot. I'd say Brown has a 50-60% chance of starting. 

I agree on Beasley due to the unique role.... but these 50/50 numbers for brown are absurd to me. 

 

we shall see.... best way to look at it, is if he's not starting we had some serious improvement from a couple of guys. I can dig that.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If I'm handicapping all the receivers, Beasley is my most likely to start, Brown is second and Foster and Zay are a push for the third spot. I'd say Brown has a 50-60% chance of starting. 

 

Barring unforeseen circumstances, I'd put it at 100% that Brown, Foster and Beasley start.  And right now I'd put it at 100% that Zay makes it as the 4th WR, but that depends on a lot of factors.

[MrEpsYtown]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can, actually. 

For example, John Brown (to whom many have immediately ceded the starting #1 WR position) has 6 zero catch games in 5 seasons, and a number of 3 - 18 3-15  2-4 2-10 and 1 reception games.

 

It's really not that uncommon - the #1 WR is hurt and all the DB attention is focused on the #2 guy.  Or the WR in question is actually significantly hampered, but didn't want to go on injury report, and the team has him active because he's seen as the best option but they've got him on a sparing snap count.

 

I hear you, but there is a value in having a guy like Brown on the field even if he isn't getting catches, and that is the element of speed and taking the top off the defense. I think the goal this year is going to have Foster and Brown on the outside and Beasley and the tight ends and backs working underneath routes. To me that doesn't mean Brown or Foster are number 1 guys, just that they are the outside guys bringing the speed element. 

 

Also, what stands out to me, is that in John Brown's zero catch game last season, Brown played just 53% of the offensive snaps. Zay was in 95% of his. My point is that Brown has been mostly a specialist for most of his career, and I'm more willing to accept a zero catch game from a guy like Brown because of that. You are right that people are expecting a little bit too much from Brown. He is not teh receiver that many are making him out to be. But I will say that Zay's production, for a guy who has been on the field as much as he has, is mediocre. Check out the game by game data I posted a page or two back.  

[Bray Wyatt]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Barring unforeseen circumstances, I'd put it at 100% that Brown, Foster and Beasley start.  And right now I'd put it at 100% that Zay makes it as the 4th WR, but that depends on a lot of factors.

 

This seems like a reasonable take to me, but it also flies in the face of which this thread is about which is Zay not making the roster, which to me is ridiculous. I would say odds are higher Zay starts then Zay not being on the roster

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

That was a matter of how much each team will willing to spend to keep him.  Brown got $5M from the Ravens, which the Cards weren't going to match, and he got $9M from the Bills, which the Ravens weren't going to match because they need bigger WR's who can block.

Wait.  Hap already has shown that $8 million is what a second wideout gets. So you don't think it means something that no team was willing to pay him more than 5, including the Cardinals?  And the Bills were the only team willing to pay him 8?   The Patriots couldn't use him?  

 

Brown hasn't fulfilled his promise. McDermott knows that.  Brown will have to prove himself like everyone else, and he was unable to prove himself at either of his last two teams. 

 

Oh, and you think wideouts blocking isn't important to McDermott?  He only talks about it just about every time he talks about receivers.

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

With regards to John Brown, just the ability to get deep and have proven success in the NFL catching the ball deep changes defenses drastically and trumps a LOT of data. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It took a while to put all of this together, so I do hope people read through it and don’t just cherry pick or point out my typos. The following is a game by game analysis of Zay’s performance for 2018.I tried to keep bias out and simply present the information, and the timing of Zay’s performances… at what points in games is he producing etc. All in all he had three good games, the Barkley Jets game and the Miami games. I’m not sure if the info here answers the garbage time question, but I did the best I could.

 

Game 1 vs Ravens (Ravens win 47-3) - Zay played 60/64 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 26 yards on six targets. His first catch came with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The score at that point was 40-6 Ravens.

 

Game 2 vs Chargers (Chargers win 31-20) - Zay played 51/62 snaps and had 2 catches for 63 yards on three targets. One of them was a 57 yard Josh Allen bomb that he juggled and double caught.  His first catch came with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. The score at that point was 21-3. The 57 yard catch came with about a minute left in the half. He made a nice a adjustment on that deep ball, but if he catches it clean, he should score (this is where RAC comes in). Anyway it led to a field goal. Zay did nothing else the rest of the game to aid the valiant comeback attempt.

 

Game 3 vs Vikings (Bills win! 27-6) Zay played 42/67 snaps and had 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 target. This came with 3:53 left in the third quarter on a 3rd and 25 with the Bills already up 27-0. Xavier Rhodes was covering KB.

 

Game 4 vs Packers (Pack wins 22-0) Zay played 53/58 snaps and had 4 catches for 38 yards on 7 targets. His first catch came with 6:02 left in the fourth quarter with Green Bay already leading 19-0. He had three more catches.

 

Game 5 vs Tennessee (Bills win 13-12) Zay played 50/65 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. His first catch came in the first quarter on the first drive. On that same drive he  had a three yard catch converting a critical 3rd and 2. His next and last reception of the game came in the 4th quarter with 9 minutes left in the game with the Bills leading 10-9.

 

Game 6 vs Houston (Texans win 20-13) Zay played in 58/62 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 38 yards on 8 targets. And his first TD of the year. His first catch came with 2:53 seconds left in the third quarter with the score 10-3 Texans. He scored his first TD of the year with Peterman in and made a really good catch, making the score 13-10 Buffalo.

 

Game 7 vs Indy (Colts killed us 37-5) Zay played in 51/56 snaps and had 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. His first catch came early in the first with no score. Derek Anderson started this game.

 

Game 8 vs NE (Cheats won 25-6) Zay played in 60/64 snaps and had 6 catches for 55 yards on 8 targets. His first catch was made early in the first quarter. And made 5 more catches dispersed through the game.  

 

Game 9 vs Chicago (Bears killed us 41-9 in  a game Peterman started) Zay played in 79/91 snaps. He had 4 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. Zay made his first catch early in the game. He did not make another catch until the third period at which point the score was 28-0 Bears.

 

Game 10 vs Jets (Bills kill them 41-10 with Matt Barkley starting) Zay played in 62/73 snaps. Zay had 8 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. He also scored his 2nd touchdown of the year. His first catch came late in the first quarter on a critical red zone third down. He got the first down and fumbled the ball trying to score. Jason Croom recovered for the touchdown. That score made it 14-0 Bills. Zay’s touchdown came at the end of the third quarter, putting the Bills up 38-10.

 

Game 11 vs Jacksonville (Bills win a huge game 24-21 after the bye and the return of Josh Allen) Zay played in 55/58 snaps. Zay had 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target. Just to be fair, Josh Allen only completed 8 of 19 passes. He ran all over the Jags.

 

Game 12 vs Miami (Dolphins win 21-17 in the Charles Clay drop game) Zay played in 66/72 snaps. Zay had 4 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. Zay’s first catch came in the second quarter and was a touchdown, tying the game at 7. Zay also scored the touchdown and 2 point conversion that put the Bills up 17-14 in the fourth quarter. He also dropped a critical pass (ruled a catch and overturned)  which would have given the Bills a first down inside the 10 with a chance to win with 54 seconds left a few plays before the Clay Hail Mary.

 

Game 13 vs Jets (Jets win 27-23) Zay played in 69/76 plays. He had 3 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. That’s a pretty crazy stat line. This was the first non Kelvin Benjamin game, but I’m not sure that Zay’s role changed very much as Robert Foster had more snap counts. Zay had two early catches and then did not have another one until the 4th quarter.

 

Game 14 vs Detroit (Bills win 14-13) Zay played in 66/68 snaps. He had 1 catch for 11 yards on 6 targets. His first and only catch of the game came at the end of the first quarter and there was no score. He did get a pass interference call in the 4th that led to the winning touchdown.

 

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Game 16 vs Miami (Bills kill them 42-17) Zay played in 58/62 snaps. He had 6 catches for 93 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. His first touchdown came in the first quarter and put the Bills up 14-0. His second touchdown came mid 4th quarter when the Bills were leading 35-17.

 

Thoughts?

 

Well, first of all, Thank you! for putting this all together.  Good post!  A good post deserves a response.

There's a lot of subjectivity which makes this hard to assess.  For example, in Game 2 as you note, One of them was a 57 yard Josh Allen bomb that he juggled and double caught.  The score at that point was 21-3. The 57 yard catch came with about a minute left in the half. He made a nice a adjustment on that deep ball, but if he catches it clean, he should score (this is where RAC comes in).  No argument that Zay double-clutched the catch.  To my eyes, it was a wheel route where Allen's throw was inside and short and Zay made a big-boy adjustment to get there and haul it in at all.  So there's the subjectivity - is it more on Zay, for double clutching, or more on Allen, for launching a somewhat off-target missile that required adjustment?
 

I seem to recall Zay was dinged up in the 1st Jets game, game 10 (I can't find a news article about it, I just remember him limping or getting helped off and the announcers saying something) which would in part explain his disappearance the following week.  But as noted elsewhere, other WR do in fact have "disappearing" games.   That fumble stretching out for the goal line was 100% a bonehead stupid situationally unaware move, and I hope he got his butt kicked good for it and never does it again.  If he does, I take back everything nice or neutral I have ever said about Zay and replace it with a video of him running naked down the hallway with his brother after him.

My major problem with an assessment like yours above, which obviously required you to put in a lot of work, is the question of comparability.  Are you looking at WR with similar catches and yardage, and doing a similar deep-dive into when they're making them?  I mean, looking at a high level....if we're getting rolled over, it typically means 1) the offense isn't seeing the field a lot 2) Allen doesn't have a lot of time to throw when he does see the field 3) what's the play design?  who are the 1st 2nd and 3rd reads? So in those circumstances, any success we have is going to come when the other team softens up their pass D late in the game, for everyone not just Zay.

 

For a somewhat more objective take, here is a link to Zay's 2018 splits.  It's a lot of number soup, but a couple things speak to me.  First, I like to look at what a guy does when Leading-Tied-Trailing.  Here's Zay:

He has a better catch % in games where we're leading, which isn't a shock because when trailing is often when our QB was getting run over and the pass game suffered for everyone (and when we're leading, it usually means we have time to throw).  But it's not horrible either way - it doesn't get my attention that, for example, he disappears completely in tight tied games or when we're losing.

Anyway there's a lot of meat there, and you can probably stew it to support any point you like.
 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

I will add, that I do not believe in #1,2,3 receivers in the E-P system. I think all of that is garbage. I believe that receivers should have roles because the offense requires complimentary pieces. To me Brown, Beasley, and Foster have pretty clear roles. I'm interested to see how it plays out with Zay, Sills, Williams, and Easley. 

 

Josh Allen is the offensive star of this team. The guys who can get where they need to be and catch the ball when it is thrown to them are the guys who are going to make the team.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

I will add, that I do not believe in #1,2,3 receivers in the E-P system. I think all of that is garbage. I believe that receivers should have roles because the offense requires complimentary pieces. To me Brown, Beasley, and Foster have pretty clear roles. I'm interested to see how it plays out with Zay, Sills, Williams, and Easley. 

 

Josh Allen is the offensive star of this team. The guys who can get where they need to be and catch the ball when it is thrown to them are the guys who are going to make the team.  

 

And on this point, we agree completely.

 

To my understanding, one of the hallmarks of the E-P system especially as the Patriots (and thus Daboll's lineage) run it, is versatility.  They ideally like to run the same play with different players lined up in different roles.  Obviously, one guy isn't going to be the perfect jack-of-all-trades, but it's something to consider as camp progresses and we start to get hints about the depth chart.  The guy who doesn't look as good running deep routes may be ahead if he's running other routes more consistently or blocking better.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

To my understanding, one of the hallmarks of the E-P system especially as the Patriots (and thus Daboll's lineage) run it, is versatility.  They ideally like to run the same play with different players lined up in different roles.  Obviously, one guy isn't going to be the perfect jack-of-all-trades, but it's something to consider as camp progresses and we start to get hints about the depth chart.  The guy who doesn't look as good running deep routes may be ahead if he's running other routes more consistently or blocking better.

that's what I understand, too.  So to the extent that Brown are Foster are one trick ponies, their chances of starting are diminished.   They will have to run the entire route tree, effectively, because the system, as I understand it, demands it.  

 

Nevertheless, we know that (with one possible exception), the Bills will go three wide a lot of the time, and there will be three guys who are the guys who play most of the snaps when they are three wide.   That's the 1,2,3 I'm talking about.   Ideally at least one of the three has deep speed, and the chances are that that's a two-man race between Brown and Foster.   Beasley is a given as one of the three, so that means the lose of the two-man race is fighting for the third spot with Zay and anyone else who can get himself into the race.  Williams, Sills, McKenzie are all possibilities.  If Brown loses to Foster, he will have a fight on his hands, because he will have to prove himself as a route runner and a guy who can catch contested balls.  If Foster loses to Brown, same deal for Foster.  

 

Either way, Zay's way into the starting three is to win the fight for that last spot.   Whose the best route runner among Zay, Brown, Foster and Williams?  Zay is the front runner, Williams is unknown.  Who has the best hands?  Well, he hasn't played in the NFL, but there's good reason to believe it's Williams.   Who's the best blocker?   I'd bet on Zay or Williams, but I really don't know.  

 

So far as I see it, bottom line is this:  Beasley gets one of the three spots.   Foster or Brown gets the second.  Third is truly up for grabs.   Brown has more experience, but I don't see a whole lot of evidence that suggests he's a lock to beat out Foster for the job.  If Brown doesn't win that competition, he's in dog fight with Zay and perhaps a couple more guys.  Brown could easily end up being the fourth receiver, as could Zay.   And as I've said before, if you're the fourth receiver, that's pretty much like being the fifth receiver - you're just getting snaps as they come.  

 

And this whole analysis assumes Roberts isn't a factor.   He could be. 

 

The one exception would be if the Bills figure out over the summer that they're going to go with two tight ends as a regular part of their offense.   Then you're looking at two wideout.  In that case Beasley likely is one and Foster and Brown are fighting to be the other.  Beasley could also lose out if both Foster and Brown step up.   

 

The real point is that I don't see anyone other than Beasley whose track record makes him a heavy favorite to start.   Brown is the favorite on day 1 of camp, but he could lose that title in two weeks. 

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Wait.  Hap already has shown that $8 million is what a second wideout gets. So you don't think it means something that no team was willing to pay him more than 5, including the Cardinals?  And the Bills were the only team willing to pay him 8?   The Patriots couldn't use him?  

 

Brown hasn't fulfilled his promise. McDermott knows that.  Brown will have to prove himself like everyone else, and he was unable to prove himself at either of his last two teams. 

 

Oh, and you think wideouts blocking isn't important to McDermott?  He only talks about it just about every time he talks about receivers.

 

 

with all due respect, Brown was on course for 11oo yards last year before Jackson was inserted as the starter.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The real point is that I don't see anyone other than Beasley whose track record makes him a heavy favorite to start.   Brown is the favorite on day 1 of camp, but he could lose that title in two weeks. 

 

Looking at pedigree/production to date and looking at the contract, Beasley is my call for "guy they want to count on" or as you put it, "heavy favorite to start".

 

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Nevertheless, we know that (with one possible exception), the Bills will go three wide a lot of the time

 

Now I'm curious - do you know a source of statistics on what % the Bills ran different personnel packages last season?

I have the impression they spent a lot of time in 12 but I didn't tabulate. 

Of course that could be driven by the deficiencies of the OL, with the desired packages being different.

[Foxx]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

... Now I'm curious - do you know a source of statistics on what % the Bills ran different personnel packages last season?

I have the impression they spent a lot of time in 12 but I didn't tabulate.

 

73% of the time they were in 11 (3wr) grouping. whereas the previous year, '17 (Dennison) they were 41% 11 grouping (3wr).

 

2018 Personnel Grouping Frequency

Edited May 10, 2019 by Foxx

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Looking at pedigree/production to date and looking at the contract, Beasley is my call for "guy they want to count on" or as you put it, "heavy favorite to start".

 

 

Now I'm curious - do you know a source of statistics on what % the Bills ran different personnel packages last season?

I have the impression they spent a lot of time in 12 but I didn't tabulate. 

Of course that could be driven by the deficiencies of the OL, with the desired packages being different.

I don't know the mix of their packages last year - I'm not geek enough to study that stuff, but in any case I expect the offense to be different this year.   Different in the sense that the mix of plays will be different.  They intend, I'm sure, for Allen to pass more and run less than last season.  Last season they seemed to be trying desperately to keep him at or below 20 attempts, but I expect this season they want to take the wraps off and let him throw 25-30 times a game.   SO that will change the mix of formations and play calls.  

 

I think they also expect to have a more effective running game (how could they not?).   I'd expect they would like to run more play action.   That will all depend on how the line develops.   

 

Bottom line, I don't know what to expect.   As we've all said for four months, a lot of it depends on what Allen can do.   If he steps up his game, and I think he will, every aspect of the offense will look better. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

With regards to John Brown, just the ability to get deep and have proven success in the NFL catching the ball deep changes defenses drastically and trumps a LOT of data. 

 

Kelly, let me make a little analogy that may help you and a couple others with this viewpoint understand another point of view.  Or it may not.

 

There's no question that speed kills in the NFL.

 

Supposing we were a hopeful contender in need of a good RB.  The Vikings maybe?  They were 30th in the league for rushing last year.  They have Cook and Murray.  An improved run game would balance their hoped-for pass attack.  But don't get fixated on the team.  You're a Vikings fan.  Suppose THEY JUST SIGNED LESEAN MCCOY!  Suppose Buffalo released him per Leroy NFL Insider (work with me here, it's a scenario).  Vikes signed him.   Do you say:

1) OMG swoon!  he's Truth.  Six 1000+ yard seasons.  Instant starter, proven ability to get to the second level and break big runs.  Changes defenses drastically.

2) I guess?  I hope?  He's past the age when many a speedy elusive RB "falls off the cliff" and loses his burst, "That was Then, This is Now", let's see what he's still got.

 

27 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

73% of the time they were in 11 (3wr) grouping. whereas the previous year, '17 (Dennison) they were 41% 11 grouping (3wr).

 

2018 Personnel Grouping Frequency

 

Awesome, thanks a bunch for the link and the gouge.  That is way way higher than I would have guessed from my memory for Daboll, and way way lower than I would have guessed for Dennison.

 

(For those who don't use it, first number is # backs, second is # TE.  Given 5 OL and a QB, 5 - (the sum of those numbers) = number of WR)