Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Bray Wyatt]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This may be a nit to you:  Data are data.  Unless they are falsified or based on faulty equipment, data are never incorrect.
 

Now, the *interpretation* of data can be incorrect.  For example, as you say, the data can be irrelevant to the question being considered.  Or it can have several potential explanations, and one has to look outside the data set to choose the correct explanation - the "completion percentage" quandry.  There may be also be several correct explanations.  For example, Allen may have a low completion percentage because he had a poor supporting cast at OL and WR his last year at Wyoming and last year here, because he is a rookie who is learning to make NFL-quality reads, AND because some of his throws are consistently less accurate than they need to be.

 

I agree completely with the bolded.  And competition is exactly what Beane and McDermott say they want.

 

That's how I see the names and the fight (with the caveat the order may be different - unless Foster takes a big big step on his routes and blocking, he's not #1)

 

Yeah the order can definitely be changed, but I think those are the top 5 for sure

[Doc]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Just to be clear, I have every belief he will be on the Bills 53 man roster unless he IR's

I just don't see him as guaranteed a starting gig much less penciled in as the #1 guy.  He'll have to show that's the case in training camp.

 

You don't bring in a guy with a 50% catch ratio and tell him he's #1 replacing a guy with a 55% catch ratio until you see what they each do in your system with your QB throwing to them.  Maybe he's better.  Or maybe he's not.

 

 

Look at his injury history and his game logs.  He has a history of multiple nagging injuries causing him to miss major time.

 

He stayed healthy last year, first time since 2015

 

His game logs show he's only missed 8 games in 5 seasons, with 6 of those in 2017.  Maybe he's had nagging injuries in the other 72 games in which he played, I don't know.

 

As for his catch percentage, doesn't mean a whole lot at least in terms of Zay.  Brown has had a far more productive career, is a veteran who worked his way from an UDFA, and he has  speed Zay doesn't.  Barring injury (and that can be said for any player), he'll be a starter for the Bills.  But again, I envision his role to be prevented CB's and S's from crowding the LOS, opening it up for Foster (who will do the same) and Beasley, as well as the running game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Yeah the order can definitely be changed, but I think those are the top 5 for sure

 

Agree, with the potential for a couple "dark horses" mixing it in for #6 (have Cam Phillips or Da'Mari Scott been taking a step in the background? What about Victor Bolden?) but you caught the front-runners IMO.

 

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

His game logs show he's only missed 8 games in 5 seasons, with 6 of those in 2017.  Maybe he's had nagging injuries in the other 72 games in which he played, I don't know.

 

That's the assertion on his Wiki page, which is typically curated by the player or his agents.

Whatever the reason, it's a fact he was a disappointment to AZ after 2015.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Doc said:

As for his catch percentage, doesn't mean a whole lot at least in terms of Zay.  Brown has had a far more productive career, is a veteran who worked his way from an UDFA, and he has  speed Zay doesn't.  Barring injury (and that can be said for any player), he'll be a starter for the Bills.  But again, I envision his role to be prevented CB's and S's from crowding the LOS, opening it up for Foster (who will do the same) and Beasley, as well as the running game. 

 

Doc, you can do better than this.  Most of this is just wrong.

 

Brown was not an UDFA.  He was a 3rd round pick.  He had a tremendous 2nd year in the league, playing opposite the amazing Larry Fitzgerald in his prime and with an excellent QB throwing to him in Carson Palmer.  Those are facts.

 

His "far more productive career" overall, is a 50% catch percentage and 45 YPG.  Those are also facts.  Now one may say he had extenuating circumstances of QB, team, etc but then, one could say the same for Zay.  Maybe Zay would have had a 1000+ yd second season playing opposite Larry Fitzgerald in his prime with a healthy Carson Palmer throwing.

 

The one thing you have correct is that John Brown was fast fast fast. - that 4.34 draft profile!  But he's 29, Man, and has worked his way through a bunch of back and leg injuries.  Is he still that fast?  Can he play all season?  We hope so.  We'll see.  But guys do slow down and lose burst as they approach 30.   Will he play that fast?  It's a reasonable question.  TBD.

[BillsFan130]

46 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How do you know it was a good season?  Wouldn't that be based on...Data?

 

I put this elsewhere, I'll put it here.  Brown's 9 games with Flacco vs Zay's 7 games with Barkley and post-injury Allen.  Who is who?

 

 

How do you know Brown is faster at the WR position?  Wouldn't that be based on...Data? 

But here's the thing: a guy's speed history, and a guy's current speed at age 29 are not necessarily the same.  Speedsters start to fall off at that age.  We'll see.

 

 

Yeah, you're using data.  You just don't want to acknowledge that some of the things you call "common sense" are actually based upon data - performance in games, measured speed etc - and can be questioned as data.

 

 

Now we get into opinion.  I don't think that's how McDermott works.  It's not how he says he works.  But it's not debatable because it comes down to a belief system.  I believe McDermott means what he says about "everything is earned" and competition.  You believe that "money talks loudest" and that McDermott and Beane learned nothing from sticking too long with the highest-paid Benjamin.  That's your belief, and you're entitled to it.

By the way, I'm not claiming Brown will be "demoted to the #4 spot", I'm just saying the guy coming into camp with an advantage, would be the guy who played in your system with your QB last year

 

 

Upgrading the position is not the same thing as "putting the new guys ahead of all existing guys on the depth chart".  I think all of us would agree that a WR corps consisting of (in alphabetical order) Beasley, Brown, Foster, Jones, Roberts  should be an upgrade on Benjamin, Foster, Holmes, Jones, McKensie.  That's a position upgrade, it's not a depth chart.  But again, this comes down to opinion or a belief system.

 

I think what you're calling "common sense" is either data, or your personal belief system, but we've sorted where the differences are and that's as much as can be done.

 

 

 

You’re really just being argumentative at this point. There really isn’t anything to else to say.

 

Nothing that I claimed in my post was data. I didn’t look at any “data” to say brown is faster than Zay. Anyone who watched those guys play for 5 minutes last year would understand that. 

 

I never looked at any “stats” or “data” to say brown didn’t do much the first half vs the 2nd half of the year. Anyone who watched the ravens understands the different offensive approach the ravens applied when they had Jackson vs Flacco in.

 

Good day.

Edited May 10, 2019 by BillsFan130

[Doc]

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

That's the assertion on his Wiki page, which is typically curated by the player or his agents.

Whatever the reason, it's a fact he was a disappointment to AZ after 2015.

 

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Doc, you can do better than this.  Most of this is just wrong.

 

Brown was not an UDFA.  He was a 3rd round pick.  He had a tremendous 2nd year in the league, playing opposite the amazing Larry Fitzgerald in his prime and with an excellent QB throwing to him in Carson Palmer.  Those are facts.

 

His "far more productive career" overall, is a 50% catch percentage and 45 YPG.  Those are also facts.  Now one may say he had extenuating circumstances of QB, team, etc but then, one could say the same for Zay.  Maybe Zay would have had a 1000+ yd second season playing opposite Larry Fitzgerald in his prime with a healthy Carson Palmer throwing.

 

The one thing you have correct is that John Brown was fast fast fast. - that 4.34 draft profile!  But he's 29, Man, and has worked his way through a bunch of back and leg injuries.  Is he still that fast?  Can he play all season?  We hope so.  We'll see.  But guys do slow down and lose burst as they approach 30.   Will he play that fast?  It's a reasonable question.  TBD.

 

My bad on Brown being a former UDFA.  I was going off of memory.  Doesn't really change much.  But he has been more productive and is a veteran presence that Zay isn't.  And as for his injuries, there's no way to predict anything.  Again he's a lock as a starter.

 

Whether Zay sticks will depend on how many WR's they keep and whether any of the younger guys (outside of Foster, who is a lock) impress.  Right now I have him on the ream at 4th on the WR depth chart.  Hopefully he works his way over the year to take Brown's spot next year.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

My bad on Brown being a former UDFA.  I was going off of memory.  Doesn't really change much.  But he has been more productive and is a veteran presence that Zay isn't.  And as for his injuries, there's no way to predict anything.  Again he's a lock as a starter.

 

They had two Browns on the same roster at WR and the other one - Jaron Brown - was an UDFA out of Clemson.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Doc said:

My bad on Brown being a former UDFA.  I was going off of memory.  Doesn't really change much.  But he has been more productive

 

How has Brown been much more productive? 

Career 50% catch percentage and 45 YPG

Fact.  Look it up.

 

"Veteran presence" I give you.  

 

Look, I'm hoping he flashes back to 2016 and has a great year for us, but can we please work off facts?

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

They had two Browns on the same roster at WR and the other one - Jaron Brown - was an UDFA out of Clemson.

 

Good info but he's not the guy I was thinking of.

[MrEpsYtown]

21 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

It took a while to put all of this together, so I do hope people read through it and don’t just cherry pick or point out my typos. The following is a game by game analysis of Zay’s performance for 2018.I tried to keep bias out and simply present the information, and the timing of Zay’s performances… at what points in games is he producing etc. All in all he had three good games, the Barkley Jets game and the Miami games. I’m not sure if the info here answers the garbage time question, but I did the best I could.

 

Game 1 vs Ravens (Ravens win 47-3) - Zay played 60/64 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 26 yards on six targets. His first catch came with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The score at that point was 40-6 Ravens.

 

Game 2 vs Chargers (Chargers win 31-20) - Zay played 51/62 snaps and had 2 catches for 63 yards on three targets. One of them was a 57 yard Josh Allen bomb that he juggled and double caught.  His first catch came with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. The score at that point was 21-3. The 57 yard catch came with about a minute left in the half. He made a nice a adjustment on that deep ball, but if he catches it clean, he should score (this is where RAC comes in). Anyway it led to a field goal. Zay did nothing else the rest of the game to aid the valiant comeback attempt.

 

Game 3 vs Vikings (Bills win! 27-6) Zay played 42/67 snaps and had 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 target. This came with 3:53 left in the third quarter on a 3rd and 25 with the Bills already up 27-0. Xavier Rhodes was covering KB.

 

Game 4 vs Packers (Pack wins 22-0) Zay played 53/58 snaps and had 4 catches for 38 yards on 7 targets. His first catch came with 6:02 left in the fourth quarter with Green Bay already leading 19-0. He had three more catches.

 

Game 5 vs Tennessee (Bills win 13-12) Zay played 50/65 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. His first catch came in the first quarter on the first drive. On that same drive he  had a three yard catch converting a critical 3rd and 2. His next and last reception of the game came in the 4th quarter with 9 minutes left in the game with the Bills leading 10-9.

 

Game 6 vs Houston (Texans win 20-13) Zay played in 58/62 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 38 yards on 8 targets. And his first TD of the year. His first catch came with 2:53 seconds left in the third quarter with the score 10-3 Texans. He scored his first TD of the year with Peterman in and made a really good catch, making the score 13-10 Buffalo.

 

Game 7 vs Indy (Colts killed us 37-5) Zay played in 51/56 snaps and had 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. His first catch came early in the first with no score. Derek Anderson started this game.

 

Game 8 vs NE (Cheats won 25-6) Zay played in 60/64 snaps and had 6 catches for 55 yards on 8 targets. His first catch was made early in the first quarter. And made 5 more catches dispersed through the game.  

 

Game 9 vs Chicago (Bears killed us 41-9 in  a game Peterman started) Zay played in 79/91 snaps. He had 4 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. Zay made his first catch early in the game. He did not make another catch until the third period at which point the score was 28-0 Bears.

 

Game 10 vs Jets (Bills kill them 41-10 with Matt Barkley starting) Zay played in 62/73 snaps. Zay had 8 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. He also scored his 2nd touchdown of the year. His first catch came late in the first quarter on a critical red zone third down. He got the first down and fumbled the ball trying to score. Jason Croom recovered for the touchdown. That score made it 14-0 Bills. Zay’s touchdown came at the end of the third quarter, putting the Bills up 38-10.

 

Game 11 vs Jacksonville (Bills win a huge game 24-21 after the bye and the return of Josh Allen) Zay played in 55/58 snaps. Zay had 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target. Just to be fair, Josh Allen only completed 8 of 19 passes. He ran all over the Jags.

 

Game 12 vs Miami (Dolphins win 21-17 in the Charles Clay drop game) Zay played in 66/72 snaps. Zay had 4 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. Zay’s first catch came in the second quarter and was a touchdown, tying the game at 7. Zay also scored the touchdown and 2 point conversion that put the Bills up 17-14 in the fourth quarter. He also dropped a critical pass (ruled a catch and overturned)  which would have given the Bills a first down inside the 10 with a chance to win with 54 seconds left a few plays before the Clay Hail Mary.

 

Game 13 vs Jets (Jets win 27-23) Zay played in 69/76 plays. He had 3 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. That’s a pretty crazy stat line. This was the first non Kelvin Benjamin game, but I’m not sure that Zay’s role changed very much as Robert Foster had more snap counts. Zay had two early catches and then did not have another one until the 4th quarter.

 

Game 14 vs Detroit (Bills win 14-13) Zay played in 66/68 snaps. He had 1 catch for 11 yards on 6 targets. His first and only catch of the game came at the end of the first quarter and there was no score. He did get a pass interference call in the 4th that led to the winning touchdown.

 

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Game 16 vs Miami (Bills kill them 42-17) Zay played in 58/62 snaps. He had 6 catches for 93 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. His first touchdown came in the first quarter and put the Bills up 14-0. His second touchdown came mid 4th quarter when the Bills were leading 35-17.

 

Thoughts?

 

I hope everyone got a chance to look at this data. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

How has Brown been much more productive? 

Career 50% catch percentage and 45 YPG

Fact.  Look it up.

 

"Veteran presence" I give you. 

 

Zay is at 30 YPG.  That's 33% fewer YPG than Brown.  And I never said "much" just "more," although whether 50% is "much" can be another debate.  So again more production, veteran presence, speed and salary are the reasons he'll start and Zay won't.  For now at least.  Brown's contract is essentially a 1-year deal with an option for more.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Doc

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Boy, I can sure see who is the shoo-in starting WR:

 

I hate bringing this stuff up, I really do.  I'm speaking God's Truth when I say I like John Brown, he had a sure-fire fantastic season with Palmer in 2016, and I hope to hell he can return to that kind of form for us.  It just puzzles me why we  some people look at Zay Jones and dis him off as "not good enough" and are all over John Brown who had similar #s, as a lock at starter.

 

Amazing isn't it  (and I FIFY) 

[Stank_Nasty]

does anyone actually freaking  believe john brown isn't starting week 1??? SERIOUSLY..... I feel like its just people arguing for the sake of it. 

 

who in gods name doesn't believe he's gonna be starting?

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

does anyone actually freaking  believe john brown isn't starting week 1??? SERIOUSLY..... I feel like its just people arguing for the sake of it. 

 

who in gods name doesn't believe he's gonna be starting?

Agree. Some are just arguing just to argue now. Kind of silly, but whatever.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Agree. Some are just arguing just to argue now. Kind of silly, but whatever.

 

well then ...

 

just stop!!!        

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

does anyone actually freaking  believe john brown isn't starting week 1??? SERIOUSLY..... I feel like its just people arguing for the sake of it. 

 

who in gods name doesn't believe he's gonna be starting?

Two teams in two years have decided he wasn't worth re-signing.  Given that, why would I think Brown is an automatic starter.  And it's not like Arizona and Baltimore were loaded with receivers.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Thank you. I think the dissappearing act is the issue. You can't be a number 2-3 receiver in the NFL and have zero catch games, or 3 catches for twenty yards. 

 

You can, actually. 

For example, John Brown (to whom many have immediately ceded the starting #1 WR position) has 6 zero catch games in 5 seasons, and a number of 3 - 18 3-15  2-4 2-10 and 1 reception games.

 

It's really not that uncommon - the #1 WR is hurt and all the DB attention is focused on the #2 guy.  Or the WR in question is actually significantly hampered, but didn't want to go on injury report, and the team has him active because he's seen as the best option but they've got him on a sparing snap count.

[Stank_Nasty]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Two teams in two years have decided he wasn't worth re-signing.  Given that, why would I think Brown is an automatic starter.  And it's not like Arizona and Baltimore were loaded with receivers.  

do you think brown is starting week 1 or not? people are writing freaking novels on here about the details that have to do with words such as "automatic" or "lock"....

 

again, does anyone honestly think john brown isn't starting week 1? does anyone believe he wasn't expected to be a starter when signed? of course he'll have to compete. I would hope that's ALWAYS the case. that's common sense. will he be starting week 1? yes..... IMO that's common sense as well.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Two teams in two years have decided he wasn't worth re-signing.  Given that, why would I think Brown is an automatic starter.  And it's not like Arizona and Baltimore were loaded with receivers.  

 

That was a matter of how much each team will willing to spend to keep him.  Brown got $5M from the Ravens, which the Cards weren't going to match, and he got $9M from the Bills, which the Ravens weren't going to match because they need bigger WR's who can block.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

do you think brown is starting week 1 or not? people are writing freaking novels on here about the details that have to do with words such as "automatic" or "lock"....

 

again, does anyone honestly think john brown isn't starting week 1? does anyone believe he wasn't expected to be a starter when signed? of course he'll have to compete. I would hope that's ALWAYS the case. that's common sense. will he be starting week 1? yes..... IMO that's common sense as well.

 

I give it 50/50 odds at this point.  If he's full go and uninjured through training camp and preseason is Hurdle #1, if he still shows his speed and burst is Hurdle #2, and then he has to catch what Allen throws better than other guys is Hurdle #3.

Look, Stank, everyone is entitled to a different view, and I can respect yours, but please quit with the script that anyone who doesn't agree with you is just lacking in "common sense", OK?  People can legit have a different analysis.