Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Dr. K]

1000th reply:

 

He'll be on the team, starting.

[Shaw66]

30 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Except we do t gave anyone that can return punts and kicks 

You’re using 1,2 and 3.  In many cases, your #3 leads the team in catches and targets.

 

sure Zay is more capable of playing the “x and z” but Beasley will rarely be playing those spots, so who cares.  Beasley is a better slot receiver than Zay at this point. Not doubt

Even with only 2 wide I won't be surprised to see Beasley on the field and Zay sitting.  

 

I continue to think that if Zay can't make the top 3, he may be trouble.  If he is your fourth or fifth guy, I'm not sure he offers the upside that others might. 

[Patrick Duffy]

50 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Even with only 2 wide I won't be surprised to see Beasley on the field and Zay sitting.  

 

I continue to think that if Zay can't make the top 3, he may be trouble.  If he is your fourth or fifth guy, I'm not sure he offers the upside that others might. 

Agreed, and also if the others are good on ST (which I know this has been covered as well) that IMO will make it even tougher. We will see how it all unfolds of course, but I too think Zay will have a tough time

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Here is that breakdown that you requested from the other poster. Breakdown is done by @Alphadawg7 Originally on page 32, 11th post down.

 

I get why you would say this, but the 7 TD's statement lacks context.  And when you like at the truth behind the number, its really not as good as saying 7 TDs.

• 4 of them came in two games against a bad Miami team, including week 17 when the Fins didnt even bother to show up.  
• Another came in the final minute of a blow out loss down 3 scores.  Pats left him uncovered for a basically free 31 yard meaningless TD when game was over.  He was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats secondary.  

So is it really isn't as impressive to say "7 TD's" if you know the back story to them.  Especially when he was so irrelevant in just about every other game, failed to make plays that contributed to some of our losses, and was so significantly outmatched in several games against better opposition.  

 

The one positive thing I will say for Zay, is that with better WRs here now, he likely will draw easier coverage.  So maybe thats what helps him stick or be more relevant.  But he showed very poorly against quality corners in both his first 2 years to go along with unreliable hands and average at best route running

 

 

Page 32. 11th post down

 

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I found and responded to a different post that was more relevant to my question. Thank you, though!

 

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

So really it is 1 garbage time touchdown.  Got it. 

 

Yeah, I only referenced one as garbage time in my previous posts.  However, there is an argument I think someone made for one in the Jets game, but I personally don't think its fair to call that one a garbage time just because the TD didnt matter to the outcome.

 

"Garbage Time" definitely gets over used here on TSW and I only use it in specific circumstances.  For me, the only thing that most often qualifies as "Garbage Time" is when we are down big and game is mostly over with little time left for any realistic comeback, the defense is playing soft to allow time to come off clock, and a lot of time several backup defenders will also see the field.  So that equates to our offensive players not seeing anywhere near the same level of defense and even being allowed cushions for each completions to keep the clock moving.  

 

Too many posters lump in production as "garbage time" when its the other way around and we have a multi-score lead.  And for me, thats not really fair to the players because they are still facing defenses trying to stop them and usually the same starters unless its at the very end of the game.  So while there is some aspects of "garbage time" at play, like say there is LESS pressure to perform because we have a clear path to victory, its still not a fair label IMO.  But there is still some things you can start to gauge if you have enough sample size to make an opinion on.  

 

For example, if a player is a front runner or not.  Its easy to be confident and perform better when everything is going your way.  Where you really find out what a player is made of is when the chips are down, or the pressure is on in a big moment, and how they respond to that.  There are some red flags on Zay with this, well known ones going back to his rookie year.  Is he a guy that can really only come on against lesser opposition and then struggle to find his way in bigger moments and tougher games?  Thats a legit question on Zay right now. 

 

How I relate that to Zay.  The only TD I really say was true garbage time was the worthless one in NE where he was struggling all game until that final play for a walk in.  Miami scores were against lesser competition, so while those games don't "impress" me as much, its not fair at all to Zay to call them "garbage time".  

 

At the end of the day, the root of my concerns come down to is Zay mentally tough with a champion mentality who powers through the struggles, tougher competition, etc.  The sample size is too small right now, plus the overall offense has had its own issues, to make a conclusive determination on that.  However, there are plenty of red flags that make it concerning to say the least, both on and off the field, to at least question it.

 

And to be clear, my post was a direct rebuttal to those blindly citing "7 TD's" as the sole validation for Zay's future.  I simply explained why that specific total didnt provide me with the same confidence giving 4 of them came against a terrible team (both Mia games), in which he also dropped a pass in Miami that really contributed to us losing that game, and a 5th TD was truly a garbage time TD.  So over the course of the season he was mostly irrelevant in the vast majority of the games played despite being a season long starter.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

I continue to think that if Zay can't make the top 3, he may be trouble.  If he is your fourth or fifth guy, I'm not sure he offers the upside that others might. 

 

And he doesn't play teams. 

[Alphadawg7]

And to be fair to Zay:

 

I think when camp opens, the starters will be Zay and Foster on the outside because they were here last year, have rapport with Allen, and most importantly know the offense.  I think its a pretty likely scenario.  All the new guys will have to prove they know the offense before getting any reps with the starters.  One thing about McD is that he is dead serious about everything being a competition and no one being handed anything.  

 

So I do believe Zay will be given every chance to earn a spot.  But come week 1, I think its more probable that Brown will be a starter and the guy opposite him will be up for grabs between Foster, Zay, and Duke.  I think there is no chance Sills will compete to start with the guys ahead of him being further along, although I do fully believe he could compete for a roster spot.  

 

Thats why I always say guys like Brown and Foster are penciled in as a starter, they still have to fully earn those roles on the field even if they are the majority favorites to do so.  IMHO there are 2 guys whose roles are written in pen as virtual locks (assuming no injuries or disastrous camps)...Cole will be the slot WR barring injury, and Roberts will be the returner.  

 

As I stated several times, I do not hate Zay nor do I think he wont be given a chance to earn a spot.  I just am skeptical he can beat out Foster or Brown for a starting spot.  That is why I said I felt he could be traded...because if he fell on depth chart and Beane may look to get some trade value back before he loses all trade value if he is in a part time role this year behind other starters.  And if we are taking about WR4 and WR5 roles, its not unreasonable that guys like Duke can be adequate or better in that role themselves.  Beane has made surprising pre season trades in consecutive years to get value out of guys most thought earlier in the offseason were locks for week 1 in Sammy and AJM.    

Edited May 8, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And to be fair to Zay:

 

I think when camp opens, the starters will be Zay and Foster on the outside because they were here last year, have rapport with Allen, and most importantly know the offense.  I think its a pretty likely scenario.  All the new guys will have to prove they know the offense before getting any reps with the starters.  One thing about McD is that he is dead serious about everything being a competition and no one being handed anything.  

 

So I do believe Zay will be given every chance to earn a spot.  But come week 1, I think its more probable that Brown will be a starter and the guy opposite him will be up for grabs between Foster, Zay, and Duke. 

 

So I agree with the depth chart opening camp. That is the McDermott and Beane "earn it" mantra. The guys in possession have the jobs until they lose them. That being said I don't see Foster losing his unless he majorly regressed from the end of last season. He to me is the most likely day 1 starter not name Cole Beasley of this group. I think the Z spot is the one up for grabs and that is where I think Brown and Zay are likely the lead dogs at this stage. I still think Duke is a long shot to make the roster. By his own admission he has to behave himself first which is not a given. My approach to him is similar to Foster last year. I expect nothing. Anything we get is found money. And if Duke flames out and Sills flames out then Zay Jones makes the roster. No doubt. Where he is vulnerable is if one of the long shots takes their opportunity. Especially if that long shot can play special teams. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I agree with the depth chart opening camp. That is the McDermott and Beane "earn it" mantra. The guys in possession have the jobs until they lose them. That being said I don't see Foster losing his unless he majorly regressed from the end of last season. He to me is the most likely day 1 starter not name Cole Beasley of this group. I think the Z spot is the one up for grabs and that is where I think Brown and Zay are likely the lead dogs at this stage. I still think Duke is a long shot to make the roster. By his own admission he has to behave himself first which is not a given. My approach to him is similar to Foster last year. I expect nothing. Anything we get is found money. And if Duke flames out and Sills flames out then Zay Jones makes the roster. No doubt. Where he is vulnerable is if one of the long shots takes their opportunity. Especially if that long shot can play special teams. 

 

I agree with you on this.  I have a more optimistic view on Duke and Sills than some, but 100% Zay makes this roster if those guys do not seize their opportunities.  Going all the way back to my OP, my view on Zay being traded during preseason was always about him not securing a starting spot and not separating himself from the other bench guys.  So if Duke, Sills, and McKenzie for example are not showing well, then Zay will be going no where.  

Edited May 8, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Socal-805]

 

Zay has just over 52 % target to completion.  That's pretty bad, and just as bad as J. Allen's completion %.

 

If the Bills are forced to use Jones very much, it spells bad things, IMO.

 

Not being forced to throw to Zay and Kelvin Johnson may help his (Allen) game.

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

Zay has just over 52 % target to completion.  That's pretty bad, and just as bad as J. Allen's completion %.

 

If the Bills are forced to use Jones very much, it spells bad things, IMO.

 

Not being forced to throw to Zay and Kelvin Johnson may help his (Allen) game.

 

Not being forced to throw to Kelvin who?

 

What was John Brown's catch to target ratio?  I'll wait.

[Doc]

I've been saying that Brown will be a half-priced version of Sammy: that is, a decoy.  Despite the drops, with his speed you can't put a DB up on the LOS and let him run free and clear. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with you on this.  I have a more optimistic view on Duke and Sills than some, but 100% Zay makes this roster if those guys do not seize their opportunities.  Going all the way back to my OP, my view on Zay being traded during preseason was always about him not securing a starting spot and not separating himself from the other bench guys.  So if Duke, Sills, and McKenzie for example are not showing well, then Zay will be going no where.  

 

This is a more nuanced view from both you and Shaw.  I think major differences between us (and between myself and Shaw) is that, especially due to age and injury history, I feel Brown is there to compete, not written in as the shoo-in #1 WR.   If he looks good and is healthy all camp, the level of competition and uncertainty for sure ratchets up.  And ditto if Duke Williams and Sills look great.    I also think even if Williams and Sills look great, there is that element of preseason uncertainty.

 

I'm not feeling the McKenzie love.  He did well in a spot role on specific plays.  He's going into his 3rd year.  If the "beef" with Zay is "going into 3rd year, what's he shown?" I'm not sure why McKenzie, who has shown less, doesn't get a double-whopper of beef.

 

 

[Ol Dirty B]

13 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility.   If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. 

 

What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success.  Not great but decent.  So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run.  Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve.  Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay.  Foster is behind him too.  So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day.  I share Hap's view in that regard.

 

If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing.

 

From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.  

 

Understand your point better now more. Completely fair and agree.

[Dopey]

I'm buying a Zay Jones jersey!!

Anyone else with me?

Edited May 9, 2019 by Dopey

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a more nuanced view from both you and Shaw.  I think major differences between us (and between myself and Shaw) is that, especially due to age and injury history, I feel Brown is there to compete, not written in as the shoo-in #1 WR.   If he looks good and is healthy all camp, the level of competition and uncertainty for sure ratchets up.  And ditto if Duke Williams and Sills look great.    I also think even if Williams and Sills look great, there is that element of preseason uncertainty.

 

I'm not feeling the McKenzie love.  He did well in a spot role on specific plays.  He's going into his 3rd year.  If the "beef" with Zay is "going into 3rd year, what's he shown?" I'm not sure why McKenzie, who has shown less, doesn't get a double-whopper of beef.

 

 

 

Agree with this too.  Good post

 

I don’t personally think McKenzie will make final roster unless they feel he brings significant ST value.  I agree with what you said about him, but to be fair, he is here and did contribute last year, so can’t totally count him out even if he is less likely to stick. He will still be part of the competition.  But once we signed Roberts, it substantially lessened the odds he will make the final roster IMO.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Thurman#1]

On 5/9/2019 at 12:35 AM, Patrick_Duffy said:

 

Here is that breakdown that you requested from the other poster. Breakdown is done by @Alphadawg7 Originally on page 32, 11th post down.

 

I get why you would say this, but the 7 TD's statement lacks context.  And when you like at the truth behind the number, its really not as good as saying 7 TDs.

• 4 of them came in two games against a bad Miami team, including week 17 when the Fins didnt even bother to show up.  
• Another came in the final minute of a blow out loss down 3 scores.  Pats left him uncovered for a basically free 31 yard meaningless TD when game was over.  He was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats secondary.  

So is it really isn't as impressive to say "7 TD's" if you know the back story to them.  Especially when he was so irrelevant in just about every other game, failed to make plays that contributed to some of our losses, and was so significantly outmatched in several games against better opposition.  

 

The one positive thing I will say for Zay, is that with better WRs here now, he likely will draw easier coverage.  So maybe thats what helps him stick or be more relevant.  But he showed very poorly against quality corners in both his first 2 years to go along with unreliable hands and average at best route running

 

 

 

Sure, you can justify nearly anything you want. On either side. You can pick any receiver on any team, tear apart his play and find the plays that fall on whichever side of the bell curve you're desperately trying to pretend is the whole picture, and then you can highlight them. Then you can say, "so really he's not as good/bad as he looks."

 

Thing is, you can do that with any receiver. Any team. Any player or side of any argument about human beings, really. But it says less about what you're looking at than it does about your method. Every receiver gets some easy TDs and some hard ones. Every RB gets some runs where he's not touched and a few where that are highlight-reel quality. It's how things work, particularly so for receivers, though, as they only get to catch balls that are thrown to them. Wide open for a TD, but the QB never sees you? Some people will call you unproductive on the play.

 

That 31 yard TD play is an example. He wasn't left open. He was cleverly schemed open by Daboll on a successful pick play. And more, he was already open and ahead of his coverage by a step and a half when the pick happened. And that is just nonsense that he was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats. I went back and watched and he was open a lot but not thrown to early. It's not a WR's fault if he's open but not thrown to. That's not "dominated." Just the opposite, he was having a very solid game.

 

Alpha clearly is working hard to disparage Zay in that post. He doesn't say anything positive about him at all. And the best he can say about four of the TDs are that they were against the Dolphins. True enough, but three of the four were on really nice plays by Zay, though the last of the four was on a breakdown in coverage (also a perfect play-call by Daboll, sending four guys deep against three-deep coverage, where the two in the middle do crossing post patterns). The other three of Zay's TDs were fine plays (highlights packages of the two games below) against a pass defense that wasn't all that bad (18th in defensive passer rating and 21st in defensive passing yards allowed, about five yards per game below average).

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018123001/2018/REG17/dolphins@bills?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018112501/2018/REG12/jaguars@bills?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

It absolutely is as good as saying he had 7 TDs. Going from one TD in his first nine games to six TDs in his last seven games, and also going from about 33 yards per game in his first nine games to about 50 yards per game over the last seven games is absolutely progress, no matter how much people cavil and justify.

 

 

...

 

 

Anyhow, I can see him getting traded, especially if he doesn't keep improving. Reasonably unlikely, IMO. He's trending upwards at a pretty steep angle. That could very easily continue, and we've seen that he's extremely serious about his fitness this offseason, an excellent sign.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Thurman#1

[row_33]

17 hours ago, Dr. K said:

1000th reply:

 

He'll be on the team, starting.

 

Hopefully this isn’t a crummy situation 

 

someone has to start....

 

it it can be an immortal and it can be the worst scrub

 

but someone has to be out there in a helmet

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sure, you can justify nearly anything you want. On either side. You can pick any receiver on any team, tear apart his play and find the plays that fall on whichever side of the bell curve you're desperately trying to pretend is the whole picture, and then you can highlight them. Then you can say, "so really he's not as good/bad as he looks."

 

Thing is, you can do that with any receiver. Any team. Any player or side of any argument about human beings, really. But it says less about what you're looking at than it does about your method. Every receiver gets some easy TDs and some hard ones. Every RB gets some runs where he's not touched and a few where that are highlight-reel quality. It's how things work, particularly so for receivers, though, as they only get to catch balls that are thrown to them. Wide open for a TD that but the QB never sees you? Some people will call you unproductive on the play.

 

That 31 yard TD play is an example. He wasn't left open. He was cleverly schemed open by Daboll on a successful pick play. And more, he was already open and ahead of his coverage by a step and a half when the pick happened. And that is just nonsense that he was dominated the rest of the game by the Pats. I went back and watched and he was open a lot but not thrown to early. It's not a WR's fault if he's open but not thrown to. That's not "dominated." Just the opposite, he was having a very solid game.

 

Alpha clearly is working hard to disparage Zay in that post. He doesn't say anything positive about him at all. And the best he can say about four of the TDs are that they were against the Dolphins. True enough, but three of the four were on really nice plays by Zay, though the last of the four was on a breakdown in coverage (also a perfect play-call by Daboll, sending four guys deep against three-deep coverage, where the two in the middle do crossing post patterns). The other three of Zay's TDs were fine plays (highlights packages of the two games below) against a pass defense that wasn't all that bad (18th in defensive passer rating and 21st in defensive passing yards allowed, about five yards per game below average).

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018123001/2018/REG17/dolphins@bills?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018112501/2018/REG12/jaguars@bills?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

It absolutely is as good as saying he had 7 TDs. Going from one TD in his first nine games to six TDs in his last seven games, and also going from about 33 yards per game in his first nine games to about 50 yards per game over the last seven games is absolutely progress, no matter how much people cavil and justify.

 

 

...

 

 

Anyhow, I can see him getting traded, especially if he doesn't keep improving. Reasonably unlikely, IMO. He's trending upwards at a pretty steep angle. That could very easily continue, and we've seen that he's extremely serious about his fitness this offseason, an excellent sign.

 

Honestly, this is a good post, but is both accurate and inaccurate at the same time IMHO.  I agree with you can pick apart other players in the same way and if you look hard enough you can find something that can justify whatever opinion a person has.  That is a fair comment, and we all know it happens here a lot.  

 

HOWEVER:  Where I disagree with you is suggesting there is no value in deeper analysis like this, in fact, its just the opposite.  Solely using stat totals in football are about the single most worthless tool to use for analytic purposes.  And that is because it is totally unreliable and leads to false conclusions more than any other sport...both positive and negative conclusions.  Its the only major team sport where a persons performance is so highly impacted by outside variables between scheme, players around them, and game specific situations.  If you do not look deeper, you have no reliable metric to use to determine potential future production.  

 

General example:  Lets say Player A has 75% of his annual production totals occur in 2 games out of 16, then has very poor production in the other 14 games.  Thats significantly more insightful than just looking at the season total.  Now you want to know why...why was this player successful statistically in 2 games and not in the other 14?  Are the 2 games an anomaly or not?  What went well in those 2 games and not in the other 14?  Etc Etc.

 

In Zays case, how/when his production happened is quite important.  Why is that, because he has been almost entirely unproductive in 70% of his career games.  He has 31 career games, and in 22 of them he had less 40 yards receiving with no TD's, including 10 of his 16 games in 2018.  So right off the bat we can see the lack of consistency from a production stand point.  

 

And lets be honest, his receptions and yardage numbers were not great in 2018 for a starting WR.  The only standout and redeeming stat working in his favor is his TD total.

 

As a 16 game starter in 2018 where he was both the WR2 and WR1 at times during the season:

Avg rec per game:  3.5

Avg yards per game:  40.75  

(Carer avg:  2.68 rec and 31.2 ypg)

 

As we sit right now, the main defense people have made about his "better" season is essentially his 7 TD's because the rest of his production is not very good for a starting WR.  So now, one has to look at why was his TD total solid and not really his other receiving production.

 

57% of those TD's (which also equal 45% of his career TD's over 31 games) came in 2 games against a bad Miami team.  1 more came in the final play of a 3 score blow out while NE was playing a soft D to allow the clock to run.

 

Those TD's happened, and they absolutely count for Zay, and I totally agree with you that all WR's get these moments like you said.  Not taking them away from him, thats not the objective, and I agree that he did have some nice ones in those Miami games.  I am looking for reasons to be optimistic about CONSISTENT and RELIABLE production from Zay.  Having a strong game against weaker foes is fine, and all players get those opportunities.  Its when those are the ONLY games someone stands out is when it becomes a red flag or a concern.  

 

Finally:  Key moments.  Does Zay make the play when it matters most or does he fail to do so or even factor into the game in those moments?  He has many times dropped a critical pass, some right in his hands, that the team badly needed at that moment to have a chance to win.  Even in the first Miami game (a 2 TD game for him), he dropped a critical pass that was perfectly thrown by Allen in a tight window.  That pass substantially contributed to our loss and was one of several situations like this in Zay's young career.

 

Bottom line:  There is a heck of a lot more information about Zay in the deeper data beyond the totals that can be used to base expectations off of.  By no means is it a perfect science or equates to him not being capable of exceeding those expectations.  But given we don't have time machines and can look into the future, the best we can do is create reasonable expectations based on known data points.  And a season "total" just does not provide enough data points to be reasonably reliable, hence the value in a breakdown.  

 

At the end of the day, no one is really right or wrong in their opinion of Zay in this thread.  All we can do is discuss why we feel the way we do and it will be up to Zay to show us on the field who he really is as a player.  I sincerely hope he breaks out and becomes a key member of this teams future.  

 

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[MrEpsYtown]

It took a while to put all of this together, so I do hope people read through it and don’t just cherry pick or point out my typos. The following is a game by game analysis of Zay’s performance for 2018.I tried to keep bias out and simply present the information, and the timing of Zay’s performances… at what points in games is he producing etc. All in all he had three good games, the Barkley Jets game and the Miami games. I’m not sure if the info here answers the garbage time question, but I did the best I could.

 

Game 1 vs Ravens (Ravens win 47-3) - Zay played 60/64 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 26 yards on six targets. His first catch came with 13 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The score at that point was 40-6 Ravens.

 

Game 2 vs Chargers (Chargers win 31-20) - Zay played 51/62 snaps and had 2 catches for 63 yards on three targets. One of them was a 57 yard Josh Allen bomb that he juggled and double caught.  His first catch came with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. The score at that point was 21-3. The 57 yard catch came with about a minute left in the half. He made a nice a adjustment on that deep ball, but if he catches it clean, he should score (this is where RAC comes in). Anyway it led to a field goal. Zay did nothing else the rest of the game to aid the valiant comeback attempt.

 

Game 3 vs Vikings (Bills win! 27-6) Zay played 42/67 snaps and had 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 target. This came with 3:53 left in the third quarter on a 3rd and 25 with the Bills already up 27-0. Xavier Rhodes was covering KB.

 

Game 4 vs Packers (Pack wins 22-0) Zay played 53/58 snaps and had 4 catches for 38 yards on 7 targets. His first catch came with 6:02 left in the fourth quarter with Green Bay already leading 19-0. He had three more catches.

 

Game 5 vs Tennessee (Bills win 13-12) Zay played 50/65 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 20 yards on 4 targets. His first catch came in the first quarter on the first drive. On that same drive he  had a three yard catch converting a critical 3rd and 2. His next and last reception of the game came in the 4th quarter with 9 minutes left in the game with the Bills leading 10-9.

 

Game 6 vs Houston (Texans win 20-13) Zay played in 58/62 offensive snaps and had 3 catches for 38 yards on 8 targets. And his first TD of the year. His first catch came with 2:53 seconds left in the third quarter with the score 10-3 Texans. He scored his first TD of the year with Peterman in and made a really good catch, making the score 13-10 Buffalo.

 

Game 7 vs Indy (Colts killed us 37-5) Zay played in 51/56 snaps and had 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 targets. His first catch came early in the first with no score. Derek Anderson started this game.

 

Game 8 vs NE (Cheats won 25-6) Zay played in 60/64 snaps and had 6 catches for 55 yards on 8 targets. His first catch was made early in the first quarter. And made 5 more catches dispersed through the game.  

 

Game 9 vs Chicago (Bears killed us 41-9 in  a game Peterman started) Zay played in 79/91 snaps. He had 4 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. Zay made his first catch early in the game. He did not make another catch until the third period at which point the score was 28-0 Bears.

 

Game 10 vs Jets (Bills kill them 41-10 with Matt Barkley starting) Zay played in 62/73 snaps. Zay had 8 catches for 93 yards on 11 targets. He also scored his 2nd touchdown of the year. His first catch came late in the first quarter on a critical red zone third down. He got the first down and fumbled the ball trying to score. Jason Croom recovered for the touchdown. That score made it 14-0 Bills. Zay’s touchdown came at the end of the third quarter, putting the Bills up 38-10.

 

Game 11 vs Jacksonville (Bills win a huge game 24-21 after the bye and the return of Josh Allen) Zay played in 55/58 snaps. Zay had 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target. Just to be fair, Josh Allen only completed 8 of 19 passes. He ran all over the Jags.

 

Game 12 vs Miami (Dolphins win 21-17 in the Charles Clay drop game) Zay played in 66/72 snaps. Zay had 4 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. Zay’s first catch came in the second quarter and was a touchdown, tying the game at 7. Zay also scored the touchdown and 2 point conversion that put the Bills up 17-14 in the fourth quarter. He also dropped a critical pass (ruled a catch and overturned)  which would have given the Bills a first down inside the 10 with a chance to win with 54 seconds left a few plays before the Clay Hail Mary.

 

Game 13 vs Jets (Jets win 27-23) Zay played in 69/76 plays. He had 3 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. That’s a pretty crazy stat line. This was the first non Kelvin Benjamin game, but I’m not sure that Zay’s role changed very much as Robert Foster had more snap counts. Zay had two early catches and then did not have another one until the 4th quarter.

 

Game 14 vs Detroit (Bills win 14-13) Zay played in 66/68 snaps. He had 1 catch for 11 yards on 6 targets. His first and only catch of the game came at the end of the first quarter and there was no score. He did get a pass interference call in the 4th that led to the winning touchdown.

 

Game 15 vs NE (Cheats win 24-12) Zay played in 61/61 snaps (100%). He had 5 catches for 67 yards on 9 targets and had 1 touchdown. All of his catches came in the fourth quarter with the score 24-6. His first catch came with 4:37 left in the 4th quarter and the Patriots up 24-6. On the next offensive possession with the Pats up 24-6 and 3 minutes left, Zay had 5 more catches and his touchdown with 1:17 left in the game, making it 24-12.

 

Game 16 vs Miami (Bills kill them 42-17) Zay played in 58/62 snaps. He had 6 catches for 93 yards on 9 targets. He also scored 2 touchdowns. His first touchdown came in the first quarter and put the Bills up 14-0. His second touchdown came mid 4th quarter when the Bills were leading 35-17.

 

Thoughts?

[GunnerBill]

Good work MrEps.

 

What I conclude from that is that in addition to the 3 good games there were some other reasonable showings.... particularly Tennessee and the first Pats game which kind of accords with how I remember it as well. And then a lot of games where he contributed very little, hauled in very few of the balls thrown his way and generally wasn't a difference maker.