Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

But just to add, I don't really understand the positive arguments for Zay.

 

Most people are saying Eric Moulds took a while to develop so we need to give Zay time. This is a meaningless comparison. 

 

Other are saying he showed great improvement statistically. This is also meaningless. Stats came in garbage time and stats are just stats. Turds like Charles Johnson and Ashley Lelie had 100 yard seasons. The numbers didn't tell you they sucked. (see I can cherry pick too) 

 

I don't think either if those arguments are really valid. Both are reaching. The only positive, and I have argued this in the thread on Zay's behalf, is that he showed tremendous potential in college and he hasn't shown any of that in the NFL. So I believe there may be some untapped talent there. His highlight film in college he looks like a completely different guy. 

 

Arguments against is: he has trouble catching the ball (which is the main part of his job), he gets no separation, has no RAC ability, has no ability to make contested catches, and cannot be counted on when the games count. To me that is the eye test, it is what he has actually shown the the field. 

 

For what its worth, I think the negative arguments are super unpersuasive and obviously subject to extreme view point bias. Its just a matter of perspective. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not so sure "both sides" is accurate, but let that go.

 

I'm waiting to see the stats that demonstrate " People talk about his statistical improvement, the majority of which came when games didn't matter. "

-What does "when games didn't matter" even mean?

-Where are the stats that support this point of view?

I can look up player splits with the best of 'em, and I can't find 'em, but perhaps the problem lies with understanding the definition of "when games didn't matter".

 

 

 

Somebody answered all of this in this thread somewhere and it was compelling information about how Zay's touchdowns and productions were coming in blowout losses or victories in which games were out of hand. They did a much better job of explaining it than I could ever do. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Somebody answered all of this in this thread somewhere and it was compelling information about how Zay's touchdowns and productions were coming in blowout losses or victories in which games were out of hand. They did a much better job of explaining it than I could ever do. 

 

It wasn't a very good explanation at all.  

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

For what its worth, I think the negative arguments are super unpersuasive and obviously subject to extreme view point bias. Its just a matter of perspective. 

 

But how can you argue against what the dude has actually shown on film? I don't think what he has shown on film is about bias at all. I think he showed that he was a great playmaker in college and has shown none of that ability in the NFL. How can you argue against what is on video? 

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Nice, but you left out Duke Williams.  And Foster's emergence as a Hall of Famer.  

 

Oh, and Allen's accuracy.  

 

Seriously, no one should expect that people read all the posts before posting their own thoughts.   A thread is a conversation; when you're talking with a group of people and someone joins late, that person often will repeat things people said earlier, before he arrived.  No one tells him to stop because we already talked about that.  It is, as you say, just people jumping in and out of a conversation.  

 

I agree Shaw, I was just trying to explain why the thread is 38 pages. It is all very repetitive. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

But how can you argue against what the dude has actually shown on film? I don't think what he has shown on film is about bias at all. I think he showed that he was agreat playmaker in college and has shown none of that ability in the NFL. How can you argue against what is on video? 

 

I think he has some flaws, for sure.  But he has made some great plays.  He is our best zone receiver, and I think he runs above average results (like I said, perspective).  He had drops, but they significantly decreased from year one to two.  The tape is much kinder to Zay than you are representing, and I think that is validated by the fact that the Bills didn't even have WR as a need on their draft board. 

 

If you go in expecting him to be a WR1, you are going to be disappointed.  My expectations are somewhere between WR2-3.  I think he is right on point there. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by JoshAllenHasBigHands

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think he has some flaws, for sure.  But he has made some great plays.  He is our best zone receiver, and I think he runs above average results (like I said, perspective).  He had drops, but they significantly decreased from year one to two.  The tape is much kinder to Zay than you are representing, and I think that is validated by the fact that the Bills didn't even have WR as a need on their draft board. 

 

If you go in expecting him to be a WR1, you are going to be disappointed.  My expectations are somewhere between WR2-3.  I think he is right on point there. 

 

I hear you 100%. I agree with your points. I don't think he has made any great plays, but a handful of pretty good plays. In the opportunities he  has had to make great plays, he has failed miserably.  I am simply saying, and I think Alpha is saying, that there is a chance that one of these guys like Duke or Sills could push Zay off the roster because they have the potential to do everything that he can do, and more. That is kind of where I am at. If Zay shows up as the guy he was at ECU, those other guys have no shot, because the potential is there. But if he is what he is, I could very easily see Sills or Williams giving us 2-3 production, with the ability to make contested catches and red zone size as well. . 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Other are saying he showed great improvement statistically. This is also meaningless. Stats came in garbage time and stats are just stats.

 

People keep saying this.  What is your definition of garbage time, and can you demonstrate that Zay's stats came in "garbage time"?

Because, first off, my dislike of the phrase "garbage time" is well-known here.  "Garbage time" is often just used to mean a comeback that failed.

Second off, if I make a guess what "garbage time" means, I can't demonstrate that.

 

Show me the link to the splits that prove your point.  No one else has - we fall back on the "eyeball test".  I can look up splits with the best of 'em and I don't see what's being vociferously reiterated without supporting evidence.

 

I have watched every offensive snap Allen took for the Bills last year.  What I see in Zay is a guy who is doing his job and is a better player than he is getting credit for. 

He came back and reached for the ball at times.  One of his most "called out" bobbled catches was a wheel route where he moved in and came back, and yes he bobbled it but the other WR on our roster last year wouldn't have come back and reached for the ball in the first place.  There were times when he and Allen clearly were not on the same page about the route he should run, and I lack the information to tell if that's Zay's mistake or Allen's.  He got open on many plays (often by scheme, which is Daboll's thing) where Allen either made a different choice, or protection collapsed before the play developed.  He blocks willingly - he's not a great blocker, but he tries and usually interferes enough.  This didn't matter on many plays because our RBs seldom reached the 2nd level.

 

I haven't seen him make those high degree of difficulty one-handed jumping catches.  But I haven't seen anyone else on the Bills make those for, what, something like 10 years?  2008 Lee Evans?  I guess Watkins made a few, but not enough to register with me.

 

Quote

Arguments against is: he has trouble catching the ball (which is the main part of his job), he gets no separation, has no RAC ability, has no ability to make contested catches, and cannot be counted on when the games count. To me that is the eye test, it is what he has actually shown the the field. And that is the big fat turd burger. Nobody can argue against these points. They are facts. 

 

Except that they aren't facts.  They are your take, and they can be disputed. 

My "eye test" is different when I watch coach's film, which I do a lot.  He had little RAC because a lot of the throws to him were in traffic, and he got the majority of the expected YAC he was scored for (2.6 out of 2.9 yds).  In addition Allen's throws were off-target enough (to all his WR, not just Zay) so as to often preclude YAC.  WR can't gain YAC if they're adjusting, going down or leaping or reaching for the ball. 

The only possible "fact" there is Zay didn't gain separation when asked to sprint down the field as Foster did.   Zay's not a burner, despite his relatively good combine 40 time.  But that's not what's needed the majority of the time in Daboll's scheme.  Daboll schemes guys open.  Then it's on the QB to figure out which side of the field the play will be on given the D and make his progressions, and on the OL to give the QB enough time.

It really doesn't matter, no one is going to be persuaded, I just want to put it out there that these aren't facts, and they can be disputed and are, by people who put in the time watching film.

 

17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Somebody answered all of this in this thread somewhere and it was compelling information about how Zay's touchdowns and productions were coming in blowout losses or victories in which games were out of hand. They did a much better job of explaining it than I could ever do. 

 

Great!  Find it and link the post, because I've been reading this thread and I didn't see it.  For anyone who doesn't know, if you click on the posting time on a computer, the URL specific to that post will appear and can be copied and pasted in.

And certainly you can explain what you, personally, mean by "garbage time" or "when it doesn't matter".  What are the games when it didn't matter, and when in those games didn't it matter?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I hear you 100%. I agree with your points. I don't think he has made any great plays, but a handful of pretty good plays. In the opportunities he  has had to make great plays, he has failed miserably.  I am simply saying, and I think Alpha is saying, that there is a chance that one of these guys like Duke or Sills could push Zay off the roster because they have the potential to do everything that he can do, and more. That is kind of where I am at. If Zay shows up as the guy he was at ECU, those other guys have no shot, because the potential is there. But if he is what he is, I could very easily see Sills or Williams giving us 2-3 production, with the ability to make contested catches and red zone size as well. . 

 

That's fair.  They could push Zay down the roster.  He definitely will be on the team, but he could be pushed down.  That said, those guys are still undrafted free agent, 99% of whom fail to even make the roster.  Despite their special circumstances, there are guys every year that have similar special circumstances (Rogers, Striker, etc.) and despite fan hype, they still don't even make the team.  The overwhelming odds are that is what will happen here. 

[ghostwriter]

Ideally I think Zay goes in the slot and catches 80 passes. Put Foster and Brown on the outside. Beasley rotates in and keeps everyone fresh. McKenzie is simply depth.

[Dr. Who]

I am relatively agnostic on Zay, but it does seem to me that the controlling narrative that most folks carry around is one that downplays the positives by explaining them away and then accentuates the negative or dismisses him as JAG. I have no idea how it will go. This year will be decisive for his career with the Bills. The wr corps looks a lot better if he becomes anything close to what was hoped for when we traded up in the second to get him and if Foster continues his upwards trajectory, so basically I'm hoping for that and I think there's a chance it happens.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah, we don't play the Dolphins until week 7.....

LOL    Well that settles it ....  he'll be on the team all season then 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think he has some flaws, for sure.  But he has made some great plays.  He is our best zone receiver, and I think he runs above average results (like I said, perspective).  He had drops, but they significantly decreased from year one to two.  The tape is much kinder to Zay than you are representing, and I think that is validated by the fact that the Bills didn't even have WR as a need on their draft board. 

 

If you go in expecting him to be a WR1, you are going to be disappointed.  My expectations are somewhere between WR2-3.  I think he is right on point there. 

 

Agreed.

 

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility.   If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. 

 

What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success.  Not great but decent.  So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run.  Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve.  Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay.  Foster is behind him too.  So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day.  I share Hap's view in that regard.

 

If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing.

 

From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.  

 

I guess what puzzles me greatly here is the implicit pre pre-season assumption that John Brown is going to emerge as the team's #1 WR.
 

Look, I like John Brown, but the guy has diagnosed sickle cell trait, he missed large portions of two Denver seasons to a smorgasbord of injuries, at his best last season in games 1-8 with Flacco throwing to him and racking up an average of 70-ish ypg he was a 50% catch % guy.  In his best season, he made his name as a speed guy, and he's gonna be 29 years old, an age where speed sometimes fades.  He can make catches, but he's never been a "one handed circus catch, jump up and contest for the ball" guy.  The fact that the Bills tied up a solid chunk of change in per-game roster bonus says they have concerns about durability, and the fact that he accepted that contract says he acknowledges the concern.

 

Looking at the contracts, the Bills expect Cole Beasley to be a key piece.  They expect John Brown to compete and keep Foster on the route-running straight and narrow, and hope he'll stay healthy. 

 

And I hope he does, and fulfills everyone's expectations, but if everyone's expectations are that he's gonna come in as a clear #1 and blow the doors off everyone, temper 'em.

(I could go into my personal concern that given this FO's track record on WRs, I'm not sure Zay not on the team would necessarily reflect a sound football decision, but I've gone into that in depth elsewhere)

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Is it really easier to catch a ball in garbage time?  

 

I'll hang up and listen 

[JerseyBills]

I don't see any reason why Zay doesn't actually make a big jump, he was regarded as our #1 WR last year by opposing defenses, he certainly was given more attention than Benjamin in defensive gameplans, now suddenly you got Foster who had as good of a 2nd half as any rookie and 2 legit vets to worry about, Zay might never be a #1 option but to give up on him at this point is ridiculous, we traded up for this guy, he has shown glimpses and don't be surprised if he makes a big jump as he goes against more favorable match ups week in and out.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Ideally I think Zay goes in the slot and catches 80 passes. Put Foster and Brown on the outside. Beasley rotates in and keeps everyone fresh. McKenzie is simply depth.

 

I think there's a fairly good chance McKenzie is a guy who is not on the roster. 

 

I also think it's possible Daboll may be thinking about a WR rotation, similar to how McDermott favors rotation on DL.

[NewEra]

Zay sucks.

 

zay doesn’t suck, he just has less upside 

 

we signed 2 midget WRs

 

zay isn’t a midget so he should make the team. And he’s jacked.

 

dk is jacked and he sucks.

 

 

39 pages of regurgitated garbaggio.  

 

Duke has never played a down in the NFL.  He’s being overvalued.  Sill wasn’t drafted.  Yet these are the guys that are taking his job?  Problem being, none of this will change until the guys throw on pads.  Nothing will change.  The back and forth will stay the same. All of this is just regurgitated gabaggio.  I don’t understand

[GG]

4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said:

Ideally I think Zay goes in the slot and catches 80 passes. Put Foster and Brown on the outside. Beasley rotates in and keeps everyone fresh. McKenzie is simply depth.

 

You don't sign Beasley for that FA contract to be rotational depth.  Recall that he turned the Cowboys and Pats* down.  If he did that, there must have been more than a hint about his upcoming role with the Bills that doesn't include being a spot rotation guy.

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Is it really easier to catch a ball in garbage time?  

 

I'll hang up and listen 

 

It is when the CBs aren't playing you too tight.

[McNubbins]

On 2/27/2019 at 3:46 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I could be wrong,

Yep.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Zay sucks.

 

zay doesn’t suck, he just has less upside 

 

we signed 2 midget WRs

 

zay isn’t a midget so he should make the team. And he’s jacked.

 

dk is jacked and he sucks.

 

 

39 pages of regurgitated garbaggio.  

 

Duke has never played a down in the NFL.  He’s being overvalued.  Sill wasn’t drafted.  Yet these are the guys that are taking his job?  Problem being, none of this will change until the guys throw on pads.  Nothing will change.  The back and forth will stay the same. All of this is just regurgitated gabaggio.  I don’t understand

 

I have something new to add. If this thread lives long enough, it will eventually be true.

 

Which Season’s day 1 roster was never specified. 

[ngbills]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

But just to add, I don't really understand the positive arguments for Zay.

 

Most people are saying Eric Moulds took a while to develop so we need to give Zay time. This is a meaningless comparison. 

 

Other are saying he showed great improvement statistically. This is also meaningless. Stats came in garbage time and stats are just stats. Turds like Charles Johnson and Ashley Lelie had 1000 yard seasons. The numbers didn't tell you they sucked. (see I can cherry pick too) 

 

I don't think either if those arguments are really valid. Both are reaching. The only positive, and I have argued this in the thread on Zay's behalf, is that he showed tremendous potential in college and he hasn't shown any of that in the NFL. So I believe there may be some untapped talent there. His highlight film in college he looks like a completely different guy. 

 

Arguments against is that so far in his career: he has trouble catching the ball (which is the main part of his job), he gets no separation, has no RAC ability, has no ability to make contested catches, and cannot be counted on when the games count. To me that is the eye test, it is what he has actually shown the the field. And that is the big fat turd burger. Nobody can argue against these points. They are facts. 

 

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm one who agrees with the OP that Zay could be gone, but I think it's just a reasonable possibility.   If it happens it won't mean Zay is bad, just that some others are better. 

 

What has he done? As someone else pointed out, he has played all three wideout positions and had decent success.  Not great but decent.  So he knows and can perform in the system the Bills run.  Brown and Beasley, being vets, should be able to get up that learning curve.  Williams and the rookies start pretty far behind Zay.  Foster is behind him too.  So although I think Zay's upside is more limited than some of those others, he is more likely to perform adequately while the team figures out over the entire season whether any of the others can deliver on game day.  I share Hap's view in that regard.

 

If Zay isn't on the roster to start the season it will be because others have better upside, Foster or someone else emerged as the number 3, AND as the number 4 Zay's experience and versatility just isn't that important. If Zay is not on the roster for those reasons, that's a good thing for the Bills, because that will mean two guys, like Williams and Sills, both have demonstrated better upside than Zay, plus Foster progressing.

 

From my point of view, Zay on the team isn't a bad outcome, Zay not on the team is better.  

Here is the deal. The entire WR crew is essentially Zay. You could argue that any of them being cut based on how good each is compare to others. However, logic says 1) Zay was drafted in the 2nd round so Bills likely not giving up yet 2) Beasley and Brown were just signed so likely sticking around 3) Everyone else is up for grabs.