Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

I was just going to quote Toesy concerning the same type of thing.

Who here is prepared to assign a 1,2,3,4 WR receiver pecking order right now.  I know I am not.

I'm not even sure how Daboll is going to scheme his WRs (now that he has some).

 

It seems to me many have a Brown and Foster outside and Beasley slot as a done deal.

Foster looked great at times but with a primary corner going up against him will he produce?

His last 2 games was 12 targets for 73 yards.  Is he a shoe in for taking 75% of the offensive snaps. 

You got to bet Beasley is the primary slot guy but the outside guys could rotate more than expected.

 

I really hope Daboll and McDermott are going into this camp with an open mind about who will do what when.

Let them all compete to see who plays best with JA.

 

 

 

 

Good post too.  I actually think someone like Duke (if he’s excels in camp) could surprise and start opposite Brown with Foster rotating in for Duke when Dabill wants to take the top off the D and also rotating in for Brown to keep fresh deep legs in game.  

 

Reason I used Duke is because he brings size and good hands into the equation.  But he has to prove he can play In the NFL still of course.

3 hours ago, boater said:

Poor Zay, 34 pages of comments about his ultimate demise.

 

 

 

Haha nice.  I started this thread but that was funny, kudos 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Except it’s not.  But ok

 

Lol. Not for nothing, but you have put a lot of good work into this thread. You have probably made it the most enjoyable on this board. You are definitely wrong. Zay will be on the team. He will get more than 50% of snaps. And I’ll be all in letting you know how wrong you were. But I respect the hell out of the work you put in here. Props man. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Lol. Not for nothing, but you have put a lot of good work into this thread. You have probably made it the most enjoyable on this board. You are definitely wrong. Zay will be on the team. He will get more than 50% of snaps. And I’ll be all in letting you know how wrong you were. But I respect the hell out of the work you put in here. Props man. 

 

Ha, all good and thanks.  I’ve really enjoyed the thread too, and at the end of the day I don’t personally care who is right or wrong here, just that we put best team on field.  

 

And like I have maintained since my original post, this was never some arrogant guarantee or a right vs wrong scenario, at least not for me.  It’s been an open discussion around expectations for the offseason, which now is done, and now continues as an open discussion on how people see Zay competing with this new group of WRs.  

 

I don’t think anyone skeptical of Zay has guaranteed he won’t make the team, we just feel he isn’t a lock and will have some guys who will present a challenge to his role here.

 

Obviously better for us all if Zay turns himself to an on going valuable player.  

Edited May 5, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ha, all good and thanks.  I’ve really enjoyed the thread too, and at the end of the day I don’t personally care who is right or wrong here, just that we put best team on field.  

 

And like I have maintained since my original post, this was never some arrogant guarantee or a right vs wrong scenario, at least not for me.  It’s been an open discussion around expectations for the offseason, which now is done, and now continues as an open discussion on how people see Zay competing with this new group of WRs.  

 

I don’t think anyone skeptical of Zay has guaranteed he won’t make the team, we just feel he isn’t a lock and will have some guys who will present a challenge to his role here.

 

Obviously better for us all if Zay turns himself to an on going valuable player.  

 

...agree 'Dawg....this "Zay Hate" is effin' nauseating.....if McDermott & his gang identify the kid as one of the 6-7 WR's in the final 53, so be it.....besides we get to keep the TBD posting experts who are anti-Zay here for another year with resumes' in hand to amuse us, while awaiting their BIG GM or HC call from the other 31....and the humor is free admission.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Why should it be a benchmark though?

 

Pretty sure Justin hunter a few years back had 5 plus touchdowns and that doesn’t make him a top 3 WR.

 

Zay is also not a W2 receiver. The bills upgraded at the position smartly.  At best he is 4 at the depth chart behind brown, Beasley and foster 

 

Max TD/yr in Hunter's career is 4.  I'm not sure what your point is with him otherwise.  Hunter's best year is well short of Zay's disappointing last season.

 

It's valid that one doesn't reasonably discount achievements for a player on one team unless one goes through other teams and discounts.  It's like discounting the rushing yards of a QB from the team's rushing total then comparing to the league, without subtracting the other teams' QB rushes.

 

Pronouncements now are premature silliness.  Case in point, Benjamin based upon his previous 1000-ish seasons and 1st round pick pedigree, was expected to come into camp last year and slot in as our #1.  Didn't work out that way, did it?  Neither Brown nor Beasley nor have done anything in the last 3 years that is clearly ahead of Jones.  Foster got cut from the team mid-season for making stupid route-running mistakes.  Will he take that to heart, or will he regress? 

 

Zay is #4 on the depth chart after and only after they all come into camp and that's how it rolls.  And even then, there will be an element of uncertainty until regular season.

[LSHMEAB]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Heh.  Well, evidently some are so prepared right now.

 

You touch on a key factor.  Allen is an improvisational, instinctive player.  Who will get on the same page with him will be key.

This is why I'm a big fan of the Beasley acquisition. He's not a guy who's going to give up on a play if his route doesn't work out. He'll fight his way back into the play and try to find a soft spot. I don't think Allen is ever going to be a classic drop back timing QB. His instinct is to extend plays. When you've got such a QB, you've got to have receivers down the field equally adept at improvisation. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...agree 'Dawg....this "Zay Hate" is effin' nauseating.....if McDermott & his gang identify the kid as one of the 6-7 WR's in the final 53, so be it.....besides we get to keep the TBD posting experts who are anti-Zay here for another year with resumes' in hand to amuse us, while awaiting their BIG GM or HC call from the other 31....and the humor is free admission.....

 

Well I still think Zay is in trouble though  

[Dopey]

17 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Why should it be a benchmark though?

 

Pretty sure Justin hunter a few years back had 5 plus touchdowns and that doesn’t make him a top 3 WR.

 

Zay is also not a W2 receiver. The bills upgraded at the position smartly.  At best he is 4 at the depth chart behind brown, Beasley and foster 

That's not a bad #4 to have, IMO. Shows how much better our wr corp is now. I think Zay will pay attention and learn from Beasley and Brown during the ota's and training camp. It will do him a ton of good. He's also going to get a ton of reps from 1 qb this year. Last year began with Nate and, well you know the rest. He will make the team and be better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...agree 'Dawg....this "Zay Hate" is effin' nauseating.....if McDermott & his gang identify the kid as one of the 6-7 WR's in the final 53, so be it.....besides we get to keep the TBD posting experts who are anti-Zay here for another year with resumes' in hand to amuse us, while awaiting their BIG GM or HC call from the other 31....and the humor is free admission.....

 

I will be most surprised if there are more than 5 WR on the final 53.  Maybe one on the practice squad.

 

Absent injuries (avert!) three of them will be named Beasley, Brown, and Roberts. 

 

 

 

[Albany,n.y.]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I will be most surprised if there are more than 5 WR on the final 53.  

 

 

They'll be 6 because one is basically a KR/PR and unless there are a lot of injuries doesn't figure as a WR on gameday, but will be active every week.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

They'll be 6 because one is basically a KR/PR and unless there are a lot of injuries doesn't figure as a WR on gameday, but will be active every week.  

 

That same logic has applied every season.  It certainly applied last season, and the season before, but McDermott found himself scrambling for DB on game day when the injury bug struck. 

 

I could be wrong though.  They have kept 6 before.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That same logic has applied every season.  How many WR did we keep last season?  Season before?

This time they actually have a legit/pretty good KR/PR. That's my guess.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

This time they actually have a legit/pretty good KR/PR. That's my guess.

 

Yes, as I said, three of them will be named Beasley, Brown and Roberts.  Roberts is the KR/PR.

[Alphadawg7]

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, as I said, three of them will be named Beasley, Brown and Roberts.  Roberts is the KR/PR.

 

Whether they keep 5 or 6 will actually be fully determined by Roberts play in preseason as a WR IMO.  

 

If Roberts shows he has value as a WR too, not just a KR/PR then they could elect to only keep 5.  If Roberts isn't hanging with the others competing for WR4 and WR5 slots, then I think we keep 6 so we have have 5 wideouts and Roberts as ST specialist.  If Roberts isn't impressing, I would be skeptical that we would keep 5 only leaving us essentially 4 WR's and a ST ace.  With Brown having dealt with some injuries before and stuff, that just feels to thin at WR.  

 

So, while I think Roberts is a lock for this team as a Pro Bowl KR, how he fares playing WR I think will be something to watch.  If he is more than a return specialist and impresses as a receiver, then this WR battle could come down to just one open spot that Zay, Duke, Sills, McKenzie are fighting for (I think Foster is practically a lock for the 53 too, you didnt mention him above).  

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Zay will be on the team. He will get more than 50% of snaps

 

Which receiver do you think he'll take snaps from? Foster, Brown, or Beasley? He will have to beat one of those receivers outright to get more than 50% of the snaps.

[Boca BIlls]

Is he still on the team?

[MrEpsYtown]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Whether they keep 5 or 6 will actually be fully determined by Roberts play in preseason as a WR IMO.  

 

If Roberts shows he has value as a WR too, not just a KR/PR then they could elect to only keep 5.  If Roberts isn't hanging with the others competing for WR4 and WR5 slots, then I think we keep 6 so we have have 5 wideouts and Roberts as ST specialist.  If Roberts isn't impressing, I would be skeptical that we would keep 5 only leaving us essentially 4 WR's and a ST ace.  With Brown having dealt with some injuries before and stuff, that just feels to thin at WR.  

 

So, while I think Roberts is a lock for this team as a Pro Bowl KR, how he fares playing WR I think will be something to watch.  If he is more than a return specialist and impresses as a receiver, then this WR battle could come down to just one open spot that Zay, Duke, Sills, McKenzie are fighting for (I think Foster is practically a lock for the 53 too, you didnt mention him above).  

 

I think it depends on how you view Foster. Many see Zay and Brown as the starters outside with Beasley in the slot and Foster as a situational player. I see Foster as a starter with Zay's role up in the air. As the year progressed we saw Foster running the full route tree and making plays other than deep flys. He's a potential game breaker and that cannot be ignored. 

 

I also feel feel like this team truly believes in roles. Beasley is the slot and they will need a backup there. Now is that Zay? Or McKenzie, or perhaps Easley? Zay gives you some flexibility being able to play inside and outside, but Easley is the closest thing to Beasley. We saw a little bit of this with Kerley and Ray Ray last season. And it is why Ray Ray made the team over Brandon Reilly, becuase he's a slot and Brandon was not. They each will have defined roles. Both Duke and Sills played a lot on the outside, but also played a good bit of big slot in college. My point is that there will be a backup slot player in the roster. Maybe that's Roberts?

 

On another note, I see this team running a lot of two tight end sets with Kroft and Knox. If that is the case, the number of receivers you keep may be affected. Knox is a guy who can move all over the place and gives you a ton of flexibility in terms of what you can do with offensive formations. 

Edited May 5, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Which receiver do you think he'll take snaps from? Foster, Brown, or Beasley? He will have to beat one of those receivers outright to get more than 50% of the snaps.

 

Yeah looking at the numbers from last year I don't see how you can defend this. Last year after Benjamin and Holmes were cut, only Foster and Jones were given more than 50% of the snaps in the remaining games. So in our offense only the top 2 receivers are going to get more than 50% of the snaps. I guess the only wildcard right now is Foster but I think everyone agrees he contributes more to the offense than Zay Jones. John Brown is a proven NFL receiver and we're paying him $9 million a year. So I see him and Foster as the top 2, and Beasley is obviously the starting slot receiver. Barring an injury I don't see how Zay gets on the field that much. I think he'll be part of the rotation but he has a long way to go to be one of our regular starters.

Edited May 5, 2019 by HappyDays

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think it depends on how you view Foster. Many see Zay and Brown as the starters outside with Beasley in the slot and Foster as a situational player. I see Foster as a starter with Zay's role up in the air. As the year progressed we saw Foster running the full route tree and making plays other than deep flys. He's a potential game breaker and that cannot be ignored. 

 

I also feel feel like this team truly believes in roles. Beasley is the slot and they will need a backup there. Now is that Zay? Or McKenzie, or perhaps Easley? Zay gives you some flexibility being able to play inside and outside, but Easley is the closest thing to Beasley. We saw a little bit of this with Kerley and Ray Ray last season. And it is why Ray Ray made the team over Brandon Reilly, becuase he's a slot and Brandon was not. They each will have defined roles. Both Duke and Sills played a lot on the outside, but also played a good bit of big slot in college. My point is that there will be a backup slot player in the roster. Maybe that's Roberts?

 

On another note, I see this team running a lot of two tight end sets with Kroft and Knox. If that is the case, the number of receivers you keep may be affected. Knox is a guy who can move all over the place and gives you a ton of flexibility in terms of what you can do with offensive formations. 

 

Agree and especially agree we are running 2 TE sets a lot this year with Kroft staying in to pass pro and maybe release while Knox puts pressure down the seam and mid field.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Whether they keep 5 or 6 will actually be fully determined by Roberts play in preseason as a WR IMO.  

 

If Roberts shows he has value as a WR too, not just a KR/PR then they could elect to only keep 5.  If Roberts isn't hanging with the others competing for WR4 and WR5 slots, then I think we keep 6 so we have have 5 wideouts and Roberts as ST specialist.  If Roberts isn't impressing, I would be skeptical that we would keep 5 only leaving us essentially 4 WR's and a ST ace.  With Brown having dealt with some injuries before and stuff, that just feels to thin at WR.  

 

So, while I think Roberts is a lock for this team as a Pro Bowl KR, how he fares playing WR I think will be something to watch.  If he is more than a return specialist and impresses as a receiver, then this WR battle could come down to just one open spot that Zay, Duke, Sills, McKenzie are fighting for (I think Foster is practically a lock for the 53 too, you didnt mention him above).  

Let me say that I haven't been here for several hours, and although it's rambled a bit, this thread is a really good discussion by a bunch of people who know something about football and the Bills.   People who are complaining about a long thread about Zay Jones are missing the point.   This stuff is interesting.

 

As for 5 or 6, I don't know, because I don't study the game in that kind of detail.  I don't know what's involved in deciding on 5 or 6, what other positions essentially get the benefit of that extra body.  I've always assumed it was 6.   I've heard 5. I suppose with the running back logjam, the receiver roster could be shaved.   I always assume the kick returner is one of the five or six (although occasionally you'll have a DB returner).  

 

I agree with Hap - Beasley, Brown and Roberts are the only locks to make the receiver squad.   Something I said when Roberts was acquired was that McKenzie would be gone, and I still think so.   McKenzie may have some upside; I haven't seen it, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it.  McKenzie's best moments last season were on jet sweeps and similar plays designed to get him the ball in space.  As I understand it, Roberts has already done some of that for the Jets, and if he as any aptitude at all on those plays, aptitude in the sense that he has the ability to get meaningful yardage, then McKenzie will lose the battle for that spot.  Roberts will be the kick returner and the last receiver, in terms of playing time.   As he learns route running, if he does, maybe he moves up to more snaps.   But just as the jet sweep guy, and the jet sweep decoy, the reverse guy and the reverse decoy, Roberts should be more effective than McKenzie, maybe a lot more, just because his kick return skills translate to those specialized plays.  

 

In my mind, as others have said, that means Zay is fighting to be the fourth or fifth or sixth guy to make it.  In terms of playing time, he could be the third receiver, behind Brown and Beasley.   Assuming he continues to show progress, Foster seems clearly to be the fourth guy to make the team - that is, Foster is the fourth after Brown, Beasley and Roberts.  The Bills need his speed, and late last season he began to look like a guy who can be dangerous in the mid-range as well as deep.  That kind of progress would actually push Brown for playing time, or more likely Zay.   When you go three wide, in your ideal lineup, would you rather go Brown, Beasley, Foster or Brown, Beasley, Jones?   If Foster can be a serious receiver in the whole route tree, I'm playing Foster ahead of Zay, just for the deep potential Foster brings, and his potential on slants and skinny posts.   Foster and Brown on the field together forces the defense to cover the whole field, sideline to sideline.  Zay doesn't do that.  So I think Zay is at serious risk of losing the 3 spot.  

 

So that makes Foster the fourth man into a group of five or six to make the receiver squad.   Who's left?   Zay, Williams, Sills, Ray-Ray, McKenzie.   I think McKenzie just doesn't fit, with Roberts here.  Ray-Ray, I don't know.   Never excited me.   If I'm right, its Zay, Williams and Sills fighting for one or two spots.   If I'm wrong about either McKenzie or Ray-Ray, it's because they've developed into something that's a serious threat, and it's probably something that Zay doesn't offer.   And I think that's Zay's problem with Williams and Sills too.   Zay just looks like a decent journeyman NFL receiver and hasn't shown much to cause anyone to expect more of him.  Williams and Sills, and possibly Ray-Ray and McKenzie, all may look less well-rounded now, but all have better upside - Williams and Sills could be serious red zone targets, and Ray-Ray and McK could be serious threats with the ball in the open field, receiver like the little guys Belichick has played for years.  In other words, I can project any of the four being someone the defense worries about some of the time; I have trouble projecting Zay the same way.  .   

 

About the guys who are 5th and 6th on the receiving squad, the coaches are going to ask "Why do we need him?  What does he do for us?"  I think Zay may find that he doesn't offer as good an answer to those questions than some other guys who've had less NFL playing time.  

 

And one final thought:  the questions for the coaches change if they're getting good tight end production.   If the tight end is a threat in the offense, then maybe Zay's steady experience and nice route running becomes more of an asset in the game.   On the other hand, a good TE game also could mean that the offense can afford to take more of a risk with the last receiver on the field, and then, again, the others might offer more than Zay.  

 

I don't know how it will go, but I think Zay has serious competition.  It didn't seem like it was likely three months ago, but I think it's serious now.    

 

Thanks again to everyone for some great discussion.  EDIT:  And my apologies.  I seemed to have just rehashed what others said in the last hour.   

Edited May 5, 2019 by Shaw66