Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[2003Contenders]

I doubt Jones goes anywhere before the season starts, given he has definitely shown signs of progression since his rookie season.

 

I really think that rookie season was essentially a slump that started with the just-off-the-fingertips near game-winning catch against the Panthers in week 2. It was likely mental for him after that -- with Tyrod not helping the rookie out with often less-than-catchable passes.

 

Zay seemed to get past that last season. Yes, I would like to see him do a better job of fighting for contested balls (see: the sideline/goal line play at the end of the first Miami game). But he has developed into a nice route runner and his hands now appear to be as advertised when he was drafted back in 2017. This will be Year 3 for him, so hopefully we see a true breakout performance (a la Eric Moulds back in 1998). With defenses having to account for the outside speed of Foster and Brown, Zay should have his opportunities, especially if we get better TE production too. If not, we move on from Zay in 2020 (when the WR draft class is expected to be very deep.)

[Alphadawg7]

54 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Well, its more like manure that is in the process of turning into a flower.  Based of course on his upward trajectory.  

 

Look, I'm never opposed to upgrades.  But there aren't any upgrades.  Zay is arguably the second best receiver on the roster.  And since he is continuing to get better, there is literally no reason to trade him (notice I didn't say cut...lol). 

 

Thank you for not saying cut, ha.

 

Like I said earlier, I would LOVE to see Zay prove my concerns wrong and excel.  But I’m also not going to not be honest about what he’s put on tape to date.  

 

EJ Manuel was a hard worker too, didn’t turn him into a good player.  I recognize Zays work ethic is his best attribute, but at the end of the day he has to win a tight WR competition now and the question is can he.

 

Not sure how you can say he is 2nd best WR on team when his “resume” is at a level that many WRs would have been actually cut already.  Not many WRs stick around with under 50% career catch rate.  And his drops have literally directly led to multiple losses.  But he hasn’t been in the cut discussions because of two reasons...he was a 2nd round pick and he caught so many passes in college.

 

What I think is Zays weakness is his mental toughness.  And that’s not something that can usually be fixed.  I don’t think he can shake things off effectively if not going his way.  And if he can’t do that, he will never break through.

 

Foster already out performed him, so IMO he is better.  Cole is unquestionably better right now, and Brown is certainly had a better career so far too.  That puts him as the 4th best WR and two hungry guys in Duke and Sills that bring a DIFFERENT skill set to the WR group that none of our top 4 guys have.  

 

Im not saying Zay can’t have a career in the NFL by any means, but is Beane going to want to keep Zay as a 4th or 5th WR after the Bills invested a 2nd round pick in him?  Or will Beane think he can get 4th or 5th WR production out of guys like Duke, Sills, McKenzie and instead look to try and recoup some sort of draft asset by trading Zay before his value bottoms out by playing a minimal role in 2019 if he didn’t manage to secure a higher placement on the depth chart?

 

I feel pretty strongly Beane will want that draft asset over having him be a bench role player assuming Duke, Sills, and or McKenzie show well in camp and Preseason.

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

He definitely isn't a game breaker.  And that is ok. Robert Woods isn't a game breaker.  Stevie Johnson wasn't. The list goes on.  He just needs to be a good WR that gets open.  He does that.  He sucked his rookie year, foooor sure. But he didn't his second year. I think the real problem is peoples vision of him is clouded by his terrible rookie year.  His progress just isn't taken into consideration.  

 

But more importantly, I just don't think the fact that he isn't this mystical "WR1" means that he shouldn't be an NFL starter, or even a back up.  That is just a huge disconnect for me. I mean, with his production last year, there is just no argument that he isn't at least a WR3. Could anyone do what he has done? Maybe.  That is sort of an unprove-able assertion.  

 

No one said he can’t be a backup.  The question is can Duke and Sills, or even McKenzie also be good backups?  And if so, why keep Zay over them if you can get back a draft asset for Zay and get similar production from the other guys who also add being a big red zone target (Duke and Sills) or speedy versatile guy (McKenzie).

 

Its about roster management and asset management more than Zay not being good enough to be a backup.  

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

ZJ is most likely gonna have a career year and make this thread look silly.  What’s the point of arguing over this. 

 

No one is arguing, it’s an open discussion and been a quite good discussion from BOTH sides.  I respect the posts disagreeing, and Zay has earned the conflicting opinions by under performing on the field.

 

The real question is can he grow and grow fast enough to hold off the new competition from 5 new WRs plus McKenzie.  Some are confident he will, others are skeptical.  

 

No one is rooting for him to fail.  That’s one thing I never understood about this board.  If you are honestly critical about someone it gets turned into “you’re a hater and want him to fail”.  That being said, there are some posters like that in general, but most aren’t and haven’t really seen anyone with that mindset in this thread.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If I hand you three bags of dog poop, one will smell better than the other two.  Doesn’t mean it smells good.

 

So sorry, this statement is beyond meaningless.  His catch total was not good, his catch rate was not good, almost all his production came in 3 games, he was worthless and dominated badly in weeks 14, 15, and 16 with Allen, he had less than 40 yards receiving in 74% of his career games and 67% of his 2018 games, he was outplayed by an UDFA, and has a career catch rate under 50%.

 

But that’s a nice attempt to make his poop smell like a rose...but it’s still poop.

Wait, I thought the topic was Zay Jones - not Tyrod Taylor 's 3 crappy passing seasons.  

27 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

ZJ is most likely gonna have a career year and make this thread look silly.  What’s the point of arguing over this. 

 

You've been a member for 9 years and you should know the answer to your question.  

 

 

 

Do we trust Coach Speak or player speak at the end of the season????    Cuz the player speak sounded encouraging 

[Spiderweb]

E N O U G H   A L R E A D Y !!!!!!

[Buffalo03]

Were people talking about Eric Moulds not being on the Bills roster after his first two seasons in which he had only 2 total TDs? That turned out pretty good. Year 3 is usually the breakout for receivers. If he doesn't improve at all this season then we'll talk

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Were people talking about Eric Moulds not being on the Bills roster after his first two seasons in which he had only 2 total TDs? That turned out pretty good. Year 3 is usually the breakout for receivers. If he doesn't improve at all this season then we'll talk

 

No it’s not.  That Myth (which originated in fantasy football) has been proven wrong over and over again throughout the years, try again.  Can he, sure, but it’s not MORE likely, it’s actually less likely.  And that’s been discussed in this very thread many times too already.

[nedboy7]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No one is arguing, it’s an open discussion and been a quite good discussion from BOTH sides.  I respect the posts disagreeing, and Zay has earned the conflicting opinions by under performing on the field.

 

The real question is can he grow and grow fast enough to hold off the new competition from 5 new WRs plus McKenzie.  Some are confident he will, others are skeptical.  

 

No one is rooting for him to fail.  That’s one thing I never understood about this board.  If you are honestly critical about someone it gets turned into “you’re a hater and want him to fail”.  That being said, there are some posters like that in general, but most aren’t and haven’t really seen anyone with that mindset in this thread.

 

I understand what you mean. And yes that is an annoying tendency.  You all carry on debating then. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by nedboy7

[Jay_Fixit]

42 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

We are hard on him because he has a hard time catching the ball, he cant consistently get open, and he lacks game breaking skills.

 

Jones got demoted on the depth chart this year with the additions of Beasley and Brown, and possibly even duke Williams. Make no mistake about that. 

He had a hard time catching in his rookie season. Last season he was significantly better.

 

He gets open quite often. Getting open while not having a ball thrown your way is still getting open. He was open plenty last season.

 

Many very good players don’t have game breaking skills. You don’t need them to be successful. You need to understand the game. And from what I’ve seen, Zay does.

 

Brown runs straight and Beasley is a slot guy. Zay will not be pushed down the depth chart because of that. 

 

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Jay_Fixit said:

He had a hard time catching in his rookie season. Last season he was significantly better.

 

He gets open quite often. Getting open while not having a ball thrown your way is still getting open. He was open plenty last season.

 

Many very good players don’t have game breaking skills. You don’t need them to be successful. You need to understand the game. And from what I’ve seen, Zay does.

 

Brown runs straight and Beasley is a slot guy. Zay will not be pushed down the depth chart because of that. 

 

1 and 2 will be brown and foster

Slot will be beasley.

 

How will he not be pushed down on the depth chart from last year?

[Fan in Chicago]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Were people talking about Eric Moulds not being on the Bills roster after his first two seasons in which he had only 2 total TDs? That turned out pretty good. Year 3 is usually the breakout for receivers. If he doesn't improve at all this season then we'll talk

Why yes, they absolutely were talking about Moulds being a bust. Those were the days when the internet was in its infancy so I can't quantify how many people felt this way. But there was definite discussions about him amounting to nothing more than a #3 WR. 

Before you draw comparables with Zay, the Moulds story is a rarity. A turnaround can happen but you can't expect it just because one highly drafted Bills WR was able to do it 20 years back. The onus is firmly on Jones right now.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Fan in Chicago

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

 

He gets open quite often. Getting open while not having a ball thrown your way is still getting open. He was open plenty last season.

 

 

Does he get open where he is expected to be?  Some WRs make unusual moves (i.e. Stevie Johnson) and read defenses differently and it requires a QB on the same page as Fritz was with Stevie to get him the ball.  Because a player is running free with hands waving saying he is open does not always mean QB is in position to get him the ball.  This is something which TV shows very poorly.

[BarleyNY]

I don’t think Zay is going anywhere now. I don’t see him having any trade value to speak of, he’s still cheap and he will be one of the top 5 WRs on team.  That means he gets at least this season to show more improvement.  We will go from there.  I’d be great to see him blossom, obviously.  One less hole to fill on the team. 

[MrEpsYtown]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Were people talking about Eric Moulds not being on the Bills roster after his first two seasons in which he had only 2 total TDs? That turned out pretty good. Year 3 is usually the breakout for receivers. If he doesn't improve at all this season then we'll talk

 

Jones and Moulds are nothing alike. 

 

I mean Moulds' first year he was playing with prime Andre Reed and behind Quinn Early and did not get a ton of opportunities. His second year he played with Todd Collins. And I do remember people feeling like he was a bust. Year three was his breakout with Doug Flutie and Andre Reed clearly on the downside at 34. IIt was also the first time he really got a legit opportunity to play. 

 

Look at the numbers: 

1996 Moulds started 5 games. He was targeted 37 times and had 20 receptions. 

1997 Moulds started 8 games. He was targeted 52 times and had 29 receptions. Not sure if Todd Collins sucked more than Tyrod. It's debatable. 

1998 Moulds started 15 games. He was targeted 116 times and had 67 receptions for 1,368 yards and 20.4 yards per reception and 9 touchdowns. (Aside from a December game against the Raiders, none of these games were blowouts with garbage time.) This was also during a time where the league was not as pass happy as it is now. 

Even in his early years, there was some evidence of game breaking ability. But people did question him, despite the lack of targets and opportunities. 

 

2017 Jones started 10 games. He was targeted 74 times and had 27 receptions. (Plus a sweet playoff game with 2 catches on 4 targets for 20 yards.)

2018 Jones started 15 games. He was targeted 102 times and had 56 receptions for  652 yards and 11.6 yards per receptions and 7 TDs. (remember that these stats were padded in garbage time play)

 

I think this is not an apt comparison. One guy had zero opportunity to play and when he finally got the chance he broke out in a huge way. the other has had a million opportunities and has been super mediocre. 

 

Jones was targeted 102 times and hd just 652 yards. To me that is a staggering number. One of these guys was a game breaking player who sat behind a legend and HOF player his first two years and when he had his chance to shine, broke out. In two years Zay Jones has been targeted 176 times and has 83 career catches and less than 1000 yards. 176 targets and less than 100 yards!!! That's crazy. He has been a focal point of the offense and has put up very mediocre and pedestrian numbers. He has had these opportunities because of his draft status. Anybody else would have been cut. He's lucky we've been in a rebuild. That, and his draft status are the only reasons he is still around. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

35 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

He had a hard time catching in his rookie season. Last season he was significantly better.

 

He gets open quite often. Getting open while not having a ball thrown your way is still getting open. He was open plenty last season.

 

Many very good players don’t have game breaking skills. You don’t need them to be successful. You need to understand the game. And from what I’ve seen, Zay does.

 

Brown runs straight and Beasley is a slot guy. Zay will not be pushed down the depth chart because of that. 

 

 

Kind of hard to get open when the QB wouldn't throw the ball until you turned and faced your QB 2 seasons ago. 

 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

He had the most catches of any Bills WR since 2016, but sure since the Bills are so loaded with WR talent they should move on. 

 

This is mistaking stats for talent. In 2014 Andre Holmes had 50 receptions and 700 yards. At the end of the day he is still Andre Holmes.

 

I think we don't give Josh Allen enough credit for what he did last year with that group of receivers. It is incredible that Zay had as many catches as he did considering he has average speed, below average separation, and well below average catch ability. I mean what is his signature play? What is his signature skill? He's just a guy.

 

There is a reason we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley to multi-year deals. Zay will get on the field as a relief guy, or in case of injury, but I don't see how he breaks the starting lineup as it stands right now. I'll be surprised if he's outright cut. But it's possible.

Edited May 2, 2019 by HappyDays

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is mistaking stats for talent. In 2014 Andre Holmes had 50 receptions and 700 yards. At the end of the day he is still Andre Holmes.

 

I think we don't give Josh Allen enough credit for what he did last year with that group of receivers. It is incredible that Zay had as many catches as he did considering he has average speed, below average separation, and well below average catch ability. I mean what is his signature play? What is his signature skill? He's just a guy.

 

There is a reason we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley to multi-year deals. Zay will get on the field as a relief guy, or in case of injury, but I don't see how he breaks the starting lineup as it stands right now. I'll be surprised if he's outright cut. But it's possible.

 

Its amazing that after that draft, where we didn't draft a single WR, more people who have agreed with that OP haven't walked away realizing they just have no idea what they are talking about.  I understand saying he has too many drops (he actually only had 3 last year), because that was a problem for him his rookie year, but to say he doesn't get separation is just wrong. It is like saying vaccines are bad for children. Sure, you are entitled to your opinion, but it's wrong. Like, as a point of fact, it is just wrong. 

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Its amazing that after that draft, where we didn't draft a single WR, more people who have agreed with that OP haven't walked away realizing they just have no idea what they are talking about.  I understand saying he has too many drops (he actually only had 3 last year), because that was a problem for him his rookie year, but to say he doesn't get separation is just wrong. It is like saying vaccines are bad for children. Sure, you are entitled to your opinion, but it's wrong. Like, as a point of fact, it is just wrong. 

 

Its not wrong at all.  Explain to me then why Zay was utterly dominated by corners in Week 14 against the Jets, week 15 against the Lions (maybe his worst game of his career), and week 16 against the Pats?  You know that period where people keep falsely saying "Zay came on strong down the stretch".  

 

He struggled a lot with beating press coverage, he gets physically dominated by corners who weigh less than him.  Where is his production?  3 games...Jets game (mostly when game was out of reach) with Barkley, and 2 Miami games against a woeful team where in week 17 they didnt even bother to show up.  

 

Show me where he is factoring into games when it matters and against stronger competition.  In 74% of his career games he had less than 40 yards receiving.  In 30 career games he never had a 100 gave despite starting all of them.  Foster as an UDFA had 3 100 games in his final 7 games coming back from being cut.  

 

When half of your career TD production comes in 2 games against Miami last year, I am not impressed.  Where was he when we played the better teams?  Foster stepped up, why didnt Zay?  Same team, same circumstances.  

 

Truth of the matter, the vast majority of Zays catches and yards last year came on plays where Allen took off out of the pocket.  Why?  Because our WR's were not getting open early in their routes often enough and our OL couldn't hold the pocket to give them more time to.  Allen had to scramble where its extremely difficult for a DB to keep holding coverage that long and when things break down.  I want a WR who gets open initially for our QB to hit them early, not on a scramble because no one was open on their primary route.  

 

Our whole WR group struggled with this last year, not all on Zay, even Foster did too.  But people want to point to his "totals" and make false conclusions to it that don't match the tape.  

 

PS:  I guess you also missed the part where Beane added FIVE relevant WR's this offseason too  

Edited May 2, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[dollars 2 donuts]

37 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is mistaking stats for talent. In 2014 Andre Holmes had 50 receptions and 700 yards. At the end of the day he is still Andre Holmes.

 

I think we don't give Josh Allen enough credit for what he did last year with that group of receivers. It is incredible that Zay had as many catches as he did considering he has average speed, below average separation, and well below average catch ability. I mean what is his signature play? What is his signature skill? He's just a guy.

 

There is a reason we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley to multi-year deals. Zay will get on the field as a relief guy, or in case of injury, but I don't see how he breaks the starting lineup as it stands right now. I'll be surprised if he's outright cut. But it's possible.

 

However, the thing is Andre Holmes did catch 50 (actually 47) passes for almost 700 yards in 2014 with the Raiders, and continued being a Raider for another 2 years, which is part of the point of this thread.  

 

Additionally, it is my understanding that Cole Beasley is a slot receiver, my apologies if I am wrong.  I therefore am not sure Cole is going to take reps from the #2 wide out, although he might.

 

If the Bills let Zay go, all you guys are right.  For some of us, it isn't that we love Zay so much, we just realize that a guy who put up those numbers last year, and who also led the team, albeit meekly with 27 receptions the year before as a rookie, and who is a second round pick of this coach, who is liked by the coaching staff and played more downs at an offensive skill position than any other Bill last year is going to be so unseeded right of the roster by the crew coming in just doesn't seem very plausible.

 

I will say this...if the better of him is on the roster, fine, good luck to him.  I'm just not sure the numbers are there on this roster as constituted to put him in likely the 7th spot and on the FA market.

Edited May 2, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts