Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Alphadawg7

 

Alpha on a team that was hideous on offense, which I know he was part of, he caught 56, for 656 yards, and 7 TDs. Hhis receptions, yards, and TDs led the team and he now has 2 years under his belt, which is important in the NFL when it comes to receivers.

 

I just don't see a former CFL player, or a rookie coming in and taking over the lead on this team.

 

If I am wrong, it would be great, because I would imagine you'd be looking at a rookie with 70 grabs and maybe Zay around 58-60.  However, I just don't see it.

 

Now, if we get a FA WR, depending upon the FA, I might see somethings differently.  However, not to the degree of him not being on this team.  He was this Coach's 2nd overall pick.  

[John from Riverside]

30 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

I think he stays.  It's hard to imagine the Bills having 5 WR's who are better than him.  I'm reserving the 6th WR as a special teams guy.  Plus Zay is on a cheap rookie deal.

Actually.....a very good point brought here

 

Does Zay play ST's?

 

Because that could end up being a factor

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Stellar take. 

 

OP put a ton of work into the post, and it was well done, but at the end of the day, you can write a whole book on the topic, it is still going to be completely absurd to think Zay is going to get cut. 

 

Again, just to clarify I said traded, not cut.  

[mannc]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

True, however they did cut KB even though they spent a 3rd on him and he they could have let him walk a handful of weeks later if they were concerened with how cutting him would look. So I do think McD and Beane will put the team first over looking wrong.  

 

 

 

True but we didn’t add a high level free agent or draft pick to challenge him for his roster spot.  We are likely adding a WR early in draft, and could add a total of 2 to 3 more to go with duke also competing.  So Shaq wasn’t staring down the barrel of the same threat to his spot as Zay will be

Both good points.

[BillsFan1988]

We need to add 3 Wrs this offseason

 

#1 sign Donte Moncreif 

#2 either draft DK in 1st or Hakeem in 2nd

#3 draft Andy Isabella in 3rd

[947]

If the rookie we draft is DK Metcalf, there's no way he's ready to start in year 1. That guy is as raw of a first round WR prospect I've ever seen. He makes Zay's route running look polished. Zay will probably still be our Slot WR in 2019.

[OldTimer1960]

I argue for patience with Zay and any young WR.  

 

Here are the first two year stats for one of the very best receivers in Bills’ history:

49 catches, 575 yards, 11.7 ypc, 2 TDS

 

Here are Zay Jones’ stats for his first two seasons:

83 catches, 968 yards, 11.7 ypc, 9 TDS

 

For sure, passing is more prevalent and easier today than it was when the all-time great played, but the point is that if the Bills had given up on that player because he didn’t burn up the league in his first two years, they would have missed out on a great player.

 

That great player was Eric Moulds.

 

To point to a more current example at a different position, Jerry Hughes was traded to the Bills because the Colts gave up on him early.

[BillnutinHouston]

Checking in to say, Zay will be fine.  And he'll remain on the roster.  He remains a good value on his rookie deal.  Why discard the investment now while he's on the upswing?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I could be wrong, but this is just what I believe based on the additions I expect Beane to make in the WR room.  I have no issues if others don't agree, just my opinion on the matter, nothing more.  

 

I have consistently said this all off season, and McDermott just said something again that enforces that belief.  I think they see how the Rams cleared out their WR room and so did the Bears and in both cases their young QB's took big strides as passers.  Eagles did the same for Wentz too.  

 

"We're looking for guys that can get open and catch the ball."  Yes, that is an obvious trait for any WR, but also its telling that he and Beane keep making these comments given the struggles all year, including Zay, to do these very basic things.  

 

I think the WR room will be crowded once free agency and the draft is over (likely 2 to 3 additions) and Zay is going to be someone who has to really impress in camp to make this roster.   Right now, there is not one part of being a wide receiver that Zay does particularly well outside of his reported good work ethic.  

 

1. Hands:  Struggles catching the ball.  Makes easy catches look hard and drops too many passes.
2. Separation:  Has struggled to get separation, especially playing on the outside.  
3. Route Running:  Part of his issue with getting separation is his inconsistent route running.
4. Speed:  He has average speed.  He is fast enough to play in the league, but to be consistent with his speed he needs to be a good route runner.  
5. Physicality:  He is easily man handled by physical corners.  Games like the Lions and Pats this year he was dominated physically for example.  
6. Contested Catches:  One of the weakest part of his game.
7. Catch Radius:  Very limited mostly due to his inconsistent hands and lack of physicality.  

 

Foster:  Penciled in as a projected #2 WR.  However, if we bring in a potential starter in FA and also draft one early, then Foster is no lock for #2 and could be used more out of the slot or as a deep threat.  Additionally, if we draft say Metcalf or make a splashy trade for someone like Brown (less likely), then Duke could make a real challenge for #2 as a big catch radius compliment to a #1 who poses a real deep threat opposite him. 

 

Duke:  He has to prove himself in the NFL, I get that.  But if we take an honest assessment of him, his issues were never talent related.  He isn't a speed burner, but he has a big catch radius, runs good routes, and has great hands.  He could legit compete for the #2 opposite a big play #1.  Even if not a #2, its more than reasonable he has a legit shot to make this team and compete for minutes.  

 

Zay:  Best suited for the slot, however his lack of consistent hands and his issues with separation make his spot there vulnerable.  If our top 2 WR's this next season dont include Foster, then I can easily see Foster challenging to play in the slot, and he already has surpassed Zay.  

 

We are adding at least 2 additonal WR's (and maybe 3) this offseason expected to start or compete to start to go along with the 3 guys already here.  With McD and Beanes consistent comments about getting open and catching the ball, I think Zay is in trouble and will be a training camp trade for a 4th round or conditional 5th round pick.  

I was thinking the same thing.  Foster is a keeper.  His big play ability keeps him on the field.  McKenzie will get touches because he has exceptional quickness and is effective.  Everyone says we need to add 1-2 WRs and a TE.  Say we add 2 WRs, one in the draft and FA.  Add those to foster, McKenzie and Zay.  He provides decent depth but needs to improve or he won’t get a 2nd deal with the Bills.  If we add 3 WRs, he may not make it another season with us

[Just Joshin']

1 hour ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

Good post, agree 100%.  He will be on the team in 2019.  Maybe the role reduced but on the team.

[Augie]

59 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

 

...and I don't think it is us just going to bat for the kid and being in his corner.  What it really comes down to is that he has improved and may improve even more in his third season, with better oline, but other young receivers around him.

 

......not to mention a QB with a year under his belt! I pray that make a HUGE difference! 

[NewEraBills]

1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said:

All I know is that I don't want Zay Jones to be anything above our #4 WR. We need a solid vet and a potential young star either through the draft, trade or FA. Then hopefully Foster improves and maybe Duke leapfrogs Jones.

 

Even if he has taken the next step you wouldn't want him to be above the #4 WR?  This is just silly and shows you just don't like the guy one bit and no matter what he does you are still not going to like or want him involved with the offense.

[Kelly the Dog]

7 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Even if he has taken the next step you wouldn't want him to be above the #4 WR?  This is just silly and shows you just don't like the guy one bit and no matter what he does you are still not going to like or want him involved with the offense.

He improved dramatically last year all the way up to still not being good. If he improved the same amount I don’t want him in the top three which is on the field a substantial amount of time. It’s not only drops. He doesn’t do a lot of things well. 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I was thinking the same thing.  Foster is a keeper.  His big play ability keeps him on the field.  McKenzie will get touches because he has exceptional quickness and is effective.  Everyone says we need to add 1-2 WRs and a TE.  Say we add 2 WRs, one in the draft and FA.  Add those to foster, McKenzie and Zay.  He provides decent depth but needs to improve or he won’t get a 2nd deal with the Bills.  If we add 3 WRs, he may not make it another season with us

 

Dont forget Duke...he has a real shot to both make this team and play a relevant role.  Talent was never his issue.

[Coach Tuesday]

He won’t get released but he may well get traded, Shaq too.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Its fun to have these sort of thought experiments, but its never going to happen. 

 

He is on his rookie deal, it costs as little as it can to keep him.  Plus, he is in his third year, will almost certainly continue to improve, and has produced way more than any other street FA would.  There is just no incentive to cut him.  

Year 3 is a key year for WRs.

[Alphadawg7]

53 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Alpha on a team that was hideous on offense, which I know he was part of, he caught 56, for 656 yards, and 7 TDs. Hhis receptions, yards, and TDs led the team and he now has 2 years under his belt, which is important in the NFL when it comes to receivers.

 

I just don't see a former CFL player, or a rookie coming in and taking over the lead on this team.

 

If I am wrong, it would be great, because I would imagine you'd be looking at a rookie with 70 grabs and maybe Zay around 58-60.  However, I just don't see it.

 

Now, if we get a FA WR, depending upon the FA, I might see somethings differently.  However, not to the degree of him not being on this team.  He was this Coach's 2nd overall pick.  

 

Nothing wrong with your response here or really anyone elses, I know I am going a bit out on a limb, but its honestly my gut feeling right now.  And that can certainly change, I made this post based on my expectation on what I think Beane is going to bring in at WR.  

 

Couple counter thoughts on some of your points.  

 

Zays production:  The reality is, someone has to catch the ball.  If you are good enough to make the NFL, and play enough snaps, youre going to have some level of production especially since he started the whole season.  And you can argue an UDFA rookie who got cut came back and surpassed him as the better reciever in the 2nd half of the season.  

• Also, Zay gets a LOT of production when the coverage breaks down and Allen is scrambling.  If our WR's were winning on their routes more, Allen would have options early and not have to scramble as much to buy time.  We need WR's that get open on their initial route, not just after coverage breaks down when Allen is improvising.  

Duke and your CFL player comment:  Honestly, I would normally agree with you here.  However, Duke is not your "normal" CFL case.  He did not wind up in the CFL because of a lack of talent or the inability to play in the NFL.  Talent has never been the issue, he made off field mistakes that took those opportunities away.  He went to the CFL to mature (which he apparently did) and earn his shot in the NFL where he was the leagues best WR.  He is young, matured, and hungry to prove he belongs, I would not under estimate his ability to make this team.  Lot of people here didnt think much of Cameron Wake going to Miami, while some of us really wanted him and thought he had a ton of potential. 

 

I have nothing against Zay and would LOVE him to prove to be a good WR and make this team.  But its a numbers game, and Zay has NOT made the most of his opportunities.  

 

End of the day, its a numbers game.  Most WRs they will keep is 6, and that 6th will certainly be a big ST contributor.  And they may only keep 5.  With Foster, Zay and Duke already here, and a likely ST guy we are at 4.  Adding 2 two more guys puts us at 6.  

 

So for me, I think if Zay is falling to 4th or lower on the depth chart, Beane will try and trade him before his value drops lower sitting on our bench for a season.  And I think Zay is going to fall to at least 4th once we get into camp and preseason some and he could be a late trade like AJM was.  

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I disagree mostly because he drafted him and those guys always get more timeI think he will get more chances for that reason. I also think that McD knows that the QB situation hasn’t been ideal for a developing WR. In addition, he’s shown the ability to make plays have big games, he hasn’t been a complete no show. I believe that he will get his full rookie contract to prove himself and the Bills will make a decision on him at that point. 

 

...nice assessment Yolo and I agree....

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I looked at the numbers, the improvement  was  more impressive than i thought.  Just based on target/receptions, he caught 36% in '17 up to 55% to '18.

and that is important to keep in mind.

 He got off to a horrid start as a Bill. on and off the field, nearly epic bad first season. Epic bad.
Last he looked to me he ran better routes. he absolutely has more work to do. I think strongly Bills give him plenty of competition.

 But i also believe he earned his keep well enough/

 

 Late bloomer. real late  lol.
needs to work on separation on the short area routes. Josh does not trust him enough yet either.Both guy sare young.

  I respect my friends original post. and certainly has logic behind his effort : )
 

#missBobWoods

[3rdand12]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Dont forget Duke...he has a real shot to both make this team and play a relevant role.  Talent was never his issue.

There must be a solid reason Zay fell apart emotionally  his first year.
We most all know he was pretty damned decent in College. and most of us liked the pick because he looked solid day one starter to me. in slot as w 2B or #3.

Hope they give him another year 

 Full on for upgrades via draft draft and of course FA though !  The room needs plenty of help regardless

 fix the Offense in one offseason McBeanes.

 Go Bills