Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[NewEraBills]

13 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Possible.  But your theory depends on us drafting a WR high, which I just don't see happening.

 

We haven't replaced Kyle Williams, and will have a handful of talented DTs staring us in the face at #9.

We are clearly in the market for another DE, but were unable to get one in free agency (at least not yet).

Our weakest position is Tight End.  If Daboll is trying to copy the Patriots at all, this will not be the case for long.

 

Now that he's got some freedom with the cap, you can see how Beane likes to approach the roster.  Instead of going top-heavy, he likes stockpiling depth and making them fight for a roster spot.  I don't see him considering Zay Jones expendable yet.  I also don't think he's ready to hand Robert Foster a Top 3 spot after handful of good games his rookie season.

 

 

 

 

Our position with the least depth is TE, but I don't know if the coaches and Beane think this is a weak position.  I mean, let's think about this for a moment.  Do you think they are going to pay Kroft 6 mil a year to be a backup?  It's essentially the same contract Jessie James is getting with one less year on the deal.  I think they will add a TE but it might not be as early as people want it to be.

Edited March 27, 2019 by NewEraBills

[HappyDays]

We added Brown and Beasley and we're meeting with just about every receiver projected to go in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I don't think this is even up for debate anymore. Zay's spot is in danger. Regardless of how we feel about him they are looking for an upgrade.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Brown and Beasley are locks because of their signings. 

 

Brown > Foster who is not a lock if he can’t do things other than run fast 

 

Zay is an NFL WR. Duke is a CFL WR, absolutely not a lock. He hasn’t proven a thing in the league. 

 

Zay is still the most versatile WR on the Bills. 

 

Roberts May be a lock, depending on how good the rest of his game is (ST defending and WR) 

 

to me cerainty of being on the roster follows this sequence 1 being most likely, last being least:

 

Likely: 

1. Cole

2. Brown 

3. Zay

4. Roberts 

5. Foster 

 

Outside looking In:

Isaiah / Duke / Scott / Ray ray / v Boldin / Phillips 

 

 

You have Foster on the bottom of the list?  Really?

 

Zay:  30 games, zero 100 yard games.  Foster:  7 games, three 100 yard games.

 

Zay also has 22 games of his 30 under 40 yards of production.  Has a atrocious catch rate, isnt that fast, is not physical, and a sloppy route runner.  How can not fathom how anyone could put Zay as "safer" than Foster.  

Not to mention, Foster has been and still working out in CA with Allen.  Where is Zay?  No reports of him being there.  

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Success]

I’d be surprised if Zay didn’t make the cut, but who knows.  Depends how the draft goes.

 

The talent is there, and he’s more versatile than Foster.  His biggest issue is drops, which was nonexistent in college - hopefully just growing pains in the nfl,

 

I’m a fan.  But I’m a fan of anyone who wears a Bills uni.  So, there’s that.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

49 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have Foster on the bottom of the list?  Really?

 

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

Edited March 27, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed.  If anyone goes back and reads my full OP and many of my replies, they will see this is exactly what I said would happen...a trade of Zay Jones.  

 

I suggested we would sign at least 1 or 2 FA WR's...which we did.  That makes 3 new WR's in that room right now:  Brown, Cole and Duke.  

 

Most people felt Zay had a better shot at the slot spot, and I did as well.  But the issue is he doesn't do anything good that you need your slot WR to be.  He's not twitchy or quick, he doesn't have reliable hands, and he isnt a polished route runner.  Enter Cole Beasley, job is officially 100% his barring injury.  

 

Now Zay is already competing with Foster (who already passed him up) and Brown, who was not signed to a 4 year deal to sit on the bench.  As we sit right now, Zay may be "penciled" in by de facto of being here as a "starter" just because he knows the playbook.  The REALITY is that he is really 4th on the depth chart right now and will have to beat out either Foster or Brown because no way he takes Coles job.  But, he doesnt have the speed of either of those guys, nor does he do anything else better than them.  They are better WR's right now and Foster is still getting better and at a faster pace.

 

I will also note, Foster is out in CA working with Josh all offseason...I haven't seen any reports of Zay being there.  He could be, I could have not seen them, but I searched online and didnt find anything about Zay working out with Josh this offseason.  

 

Now we still have Duke who is a wildcard, and he has the advantage of being a different skill set that can have value to the roster by being a big target with a big catch radius.  He still has to prove he can play in the NFL, but make no mistake about it, Zay is in competition with him too even for the 4th WR spot.  

 

And that is all BEFORE we likely add a WR in the draft.  NOW, if we do NOT add a WR early (first 3 rounds) in the draft, then Zay has a better chance of at least being on the roster, but I think he will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart.  But that is also why I think Beane will look to trade him...Beane is a master at getting value and he knows if Zay sits on the bench a lot this year in a limited and diminished role, his value will be almost nothing next year and he becomes a cut candidate rather than a trade candidate.  And after spending a 2nd round pick on him, I think Beane would like some return on that if he isn't part of the long term plans.  

 

Which is why I think he gets traded sometime before week 1.  And honestly, wouldn't surprise me if he was used in a trade up package at some point during the draft.  Although, I do not expect that and I think Zay more likely gets traded in something like you suggested njbluff or he makes it to camp and preseason and gets traded sometime during that like Watkins was.  Maybe even showcase him early in preseason like they did with Watkins.

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

[Alphadawg7]

23 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

 

Thanks and yes, great point also

 

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

We added Brown and Beasley and we're meeting with just about every receiver projected to go in the 1st and 2nd rounds. I don't think this is even up for debate anymore. Zay's spot is in danger. Regardless of how we feel about him they are looking for an upgrade.

 

I think DK is still in play at 9 even though everyone thinks it will be a DL.  It very well could be DL at 9, which is fine if it is.  But I can see us going DT (say Oliver) or EDGE (say Sweat) at 9 then seeing Beane trade back up into the first or even just earlier in the 2nd to get someone like say Harry (or whatever WR Beane covets).  

 

OR:  I can see Beane grabbing the ultimate big play threat in DK then trading back up into the first to get someone like say Simmons or taking Tillery in the 2nd.  Or maybe drafting someone like say Ximines in the 2nd on the EDGE.  

 

OR:  I can easily see us trade down to grab an extra 2nd and then with those first 3 picks in some combo of WR, DL (someone like Simmons or Tillery), and maybe a TE/OL with the other pick.  

 

One way or another, I think there is a strong possibility we will go after a WR somewhere within the first 2 rounds.

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[DuckyBoys]

He is coming into year 3 where often wrs break out.  However he also has always been a 11 yd per catch player.  I don't think he fast enough to win on the outside and not quick enough to separate in the slot.  I'm thinking if any team is even interested they move on.  Maybe they wait to see how the draft plays out. 

[Alphadawg7]

39 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

He is coming into year 3 where often wrs break out.  However he also has always been a 11 yd per catch player.  I don't think he fast enough to win on the outside and not quick enough to separate in the slot.  I'm thinking if any team is even interested they move on.  Maybe they wait to see how the draft plays out. 

 

Issue is the "Third Year" breakout thing is a myth and been disproven many times.  A WR is slightly more likely to break out in year 1 or year 2 than they are in year 3.  And they are 3 times more likely to break out in years 1 and 2 combined than in year 3.  

 

There has never been any truth to the notion that year 3 is the magical year for a WR in terms of breaking out.  If you compare year 1, year 2 and year 3...the odds are higher in both years 1 and years 2.  

 

Now that doesn't mean a WR may not have their best year of the 3 years in during that 3rd year as WR's on average have their best seasons in years 4 through 7.  So they can keep getting better.  But when we are talking about when a WR really comes into their own and has that breakout year (something Zay hasn't come close to yet), its three times more likely to have happened in his first 2 years than the 3rd year.  

 

Does not mean Zay can't break out in year 3, but it certainly means that there is no added probability of him breaking out just because its his 3rd year.  In fact its actually less likely that he will year 3 if he did not in years 1 or 2.

 

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

 

Sorry, but those 6 games he didnt really play.  So no, not counting them as he had no real opportunity to contribute as a raw rookie.  I am comparing the impact Zay and Foster had when playing relevant minutes.

 

Zay has been on the field as a starter for 30 games.  ZERO 100 yard games.  Foster was a starter for 5 games and played relevant minutes in 2 more games.  He has THREE 100 yard games in that span. 

 

And not only did Foster put the work in to become a weapon, he's putting the work in this offseason with Josh right now...where is Zay?  Posting Gym pictures instead of working out with Josh in CA.  

Edited March 28, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Issue is the "Third Year" breakout thing is a myth and been disproven many times.  A WR is slightly more likely to break out in year 1 or year 2 than they are in year 3.  And they are 3 times more likely to break out in years 1 and 2 combined than in year 3.  

 

There has never been any truth to the notion that year 3 is the magical year for a WR in terms of breaking out.  If you compare year 1, year 2 and year 3...the odds are higher in both years 1 and years 2.  

 

Now that doesn't mean a WR may not have their best year of the 3 years in during that 3rd year as WR's on average have their best seasons in years 4 through 7.  So they can keep getting better.  But when we are talking about when a WR really comes into their own and has that breakout year (something Zay hasn't come close to yet), its three times more likely to have happened in his first 2 years than the 3rd year.  

 

Does not mean Zay can't break out in year 3, but it certainly means that there is no added probability of him breaking out just because its his 3rd year.  In fact its actually less likely that he will year 3 if he did not in years 1 or 2.

 

Sorry, but those 6 games he didnt really play.  So no, not counting them as he had no real opportunity to contribute as a raw rookie.  I am comparing the impact Zay and Foster had when playing relevant minutes.

 

Zay has been on the field as a starter for 30 games.  ZERO 100 yard games.  Foster was a starter for 5 games and played relevant minutes in 2 more games.  He has THREE 100 yard games in that span. 

 

And not only did Foster put the work in to become a weapon, he's putting the work in this offseason with Josh right now...where is Zay?  Posting Gym pictures instead of working out with Josh in CA.  

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. 

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

I don’t think many will be surprised if foster is on the team and jones isn’t. 

 

One of them actually at least did something well, even if it was just go deep, last year that led to very nice production down the stretch. The others claim to fame all year was helping KB line up in the right spot every week. 

 

Whats funny is you act like alpha is the one that’s missing something here. How about stop being married to your wr “roles” argument and realize they may just keep the best ball players. Fosters performance after being called back up was a way better stretch than any Jones has ever had. 

 

I’d be confident wagering the opening day lineup features brown and foster on either side with Beasley in the slot. 

Edited March 28, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. 

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

It’s not me you should worry about...   the Bills depth chart does, and that’s more important to this topic.

 

BTW Foster.. 13 games not 7.  Sorry you need to count those other 6 games where he wasn’t even good enough to step on the field. 

 

Brown is a better Foster. Zay has a different role. Let’s not get carried away with Foster just yet, he had TWENTY SEVEN catches on the whole season. 

I can almost guarantee that Foster is way ahead of Zay on the depth chart.

 

If the play of both receivers didn’t tell the story, the “speed” trend should.

 

Bills added Brown, (fast) and Beasley (very quick).

 

Foster is WAY faster than Zay and was far more productive last year. 

 

 

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

The comical part is he thinks the jokes on US. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Nice post...if I could also add something it would be that Zay doesn’t play special teams either...so not being a starter and not playing ST doesn’t bode well for Mr. Jones.

 

Yes but what does bode well for Jones and easily negates not being a starter or playing special teams is he's still on a cheap rookie contract.  Likely will take one or maybe two of these other guys to clearly outplay him in camp that he drops down to around #7 on the depth chart t obe cut.  The other thing that could hurt him is I do believe the Bills will draft a TE, that would leave them with four including the converted tackle they signed last week.  If they decide to go with four TE's that likely will reduce the number of slots for WR.

 

I'd say there's a much better chance he's not on the Bills opening day roster because he gets traded, but not because he gets cut. 

 

If the Bills were to make two trades between now and opening day, will be surprised if Zay isn't part of one of the trades. 

 

How about the Bills sign one of the FA DE they've been talking with then trade Zay and Lawson and a 4th rounder for AJ Green

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I don’t think many will be surprised if foster is on the team and jones isn’t. 

 

One of them actually at least did something well, even if it was just go deep, last year that led to very nice production down the stretch. The others claim to fame all year was helping KB line up in the right spot every week. 

 

Whats funny is you act like alpha is the one that’s missing something here. How about stop being married to your wr “roles” argument and realize they may just keep the best ball players. Fosters performance after being called back up was a way better stretch than any Jones has ever had. 

 

I’d be confident wagering the opening day lineup features brown and foster on either side with Beasley in the slot. 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You may be the only one on the planet who believes this.  But hey, we are all entitled to our opinions, so all good.  

 

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I can almost guarantee that Foster is way ahead of Zay on the depth chart.

 

If the play of both receivers didn’t tell the story, the “speed” trend should.

 

Bills added Brown, (fast) and Beasley (very quick).

 

Foster is WAY faster than Zay and was far more productive last year. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Stank_Nasty said:

The comical part is he thinks the jokes on US. 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

 

 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

 

So to be clear, you’re pinning those there to show that you’re claiming FOSTER won’t make the team right?

[Ronin]

On 2/27/2019 at 7:45 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I won’t cut him either.  But Moulds was sitting behind HOFers.  The last 2 years have been some of the worst group of receivers in team history.  

 

It was also a completely different era, one in which RBs and defense reigned supreme.  

 

Consider, Favre hit 39 TDs that season and it was considered all but monumental.  Only one other QB threw for more than 30 TDs.  

 

Same with yards, only three QBs threw for more than 4,-000 yards, Brunnell led with 4,367.  

 

Last season 9 QBs threw for 30+ TDs and 12 had more than 4,000 yards.  

 

Average number of TDs in ''96 was 15.  Average number of TDs last season was 22-24, 50% more.  

 

Average number of passing yards in '96 was around 2,700.  Average number of passing yards last season was over 3,700.  

[SouthNYfan]

13 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

27 catches in 13 GP.... WOW

 

Marquise Goodwin had three 100 yd games one year too. 

 

Zay is ahead of Foster on the depth chart. Zay is one of the players getting snaps ahead of him

 

Brown signing put foster on the bubble. 

 

not sure how else to explain this.

 

 

 

Nobody is getting snaps ahead of anybody right now bud.

It's off-season.

Foster destroyed Zay when given the opportunity to start.

I was really down on Foster prior to him being given a chance.

I was definitely wrong.

 

Not sure how else to explain it to you, but Foster produced much more than Zay when given the opportunity to actually play.

 

 

11 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

 

 

 

 

Im just going to stash these here together so it’s easier to find inSeptember.... Thx

 

Stash away.

 

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So to be clear, you’re pinning those there to show that you’re claiming FOSTER won’t make the team right?

 

Boom.

[Ronin]

Also, one of Jones' two best and only noteworthy games was against the Jets with Barkley throwing.  The other was that emotionally-charged Fins game to end the season where the entire team was playing on all cylinders against an apathetic Miami team.  

 

Jones averaged 5.25 catches for 48 yards in four games w/o Allen, which included games featuring one game with Barkley, two with Anderson, and one with Peterman.  

 

He averaged fewer than 3 catches for 38 yards with Allen.   .

He's clearly not Allen's favorite target.  I see Beasley doing better.  

11 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

Boom.

 

You see Jones making the team over Foster?  

 

interesting take.  Curious the logic there.  

 

I see with Beasley on board Jones not getting many reps.  Same role except that Beasley actually catches the balls thrown contrasted with Jones who ranks near the bottom, AHEM, alongside John Brown, for horrific catch %.  

 

Methinks that they had better draft at least two WRs in rounds 3 & 4.  I'd say 1/2 but we need OL-men so badly first.