Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Alphadawg7]

41 minutes ago, njbuff said:

The more I think about it, the more there could be credence to this.

 

The Bills are very very high on Kelvin Harmon and if they draft him in the second round, Jones could be shipped off to Seattle in a package for Frank Clark.

 

Seattle still needs WR's and Zay could be a nice weapon for Wilson.

 

Otherwise, Jones doesn't go anywhere.

 

Agreed.  If anyone goes back and reads my full OP and many of my replies, they will see this is exactly what I said would happen...a trade of Zay Jones.  

 

I suggested we would sign at least 1 or 2 FA WR's...which we did.  That makes 3 new WR's in that room right now:  Brown, Cole and Duke.  

 

Most people felt Zay had a better shot at the slot spot, and I did as well.  But the issue is he doesn't do anything good that you need your slot WR to be.  He's not twitchy or quick, he doesn't have reliable hands, and he isnt a polished route runner.  Enter Cole Beasley, job is officially 100% his barring injury.  

 

Now Zay is already competing with Foster (who already passed him up) and Brown, who was not signed to a 4 year deal to sit on the bench.  As we sit right now, Zay may be "penciled" in by de facto of being here as a "starter" just because he knows the playbook.  The REALITY is that he is really 4th on the depth chart right now and will have to beat out either Foster or Brown because no way he takes Coles job.  But, he doesnt have the speed of either of those guys, nor does he do anything else better than them.  They are better WR's right now and Foster is still getting better and at a faster pace.

 

I will also note, Foster is out in CA working with Josh all offseason...I haven't seen any reports of Zay being there.  He could be, I could have not seen them, but I searched online and didnt find anything about Zay working out with Josh this offseason.  

 

Now we still have Duke who is a wildcard, and he has the advantage of being a different skill set that can have value to the roster by being a big target with a big catch radius.  He still has to prove he can play in the NFL, but make no mistake about it, Zay is in competition with him too even for the 4th WR spot.  

 

And that is all BEFORE we likely add a WR in the draft.  NOW, if we do NOT add a WR early (first 3 rounds) in the draft, then Zay has a better chance of at least being on the roster, but I think he will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart.  But that is also why I think Beane will look to trade him...Beane is a master at getting value and he knows if Zay sits on the bench a lot this year in a limited and diminished role, his value will be almost nothing next year and he becomes a cut candidate rather than a trade candidate.  And after spending a 2nd round pick on him, I think Beane would like some return on that if he isn't part of the long term plans.  

 

Which is why I think he gets traded sometime before week 1.  And honestly, wouldn't surprise me if he was used in a trade up package at some point during the draft.  Although, I do not expect that and I think Zay more likely gets traded in something like you suggested njbluff or he makes it to camp and preseason and gets traded sometime during that like Watkins was.  Maybe even showcase him early in preseason like they did with Watkins.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[njbuff]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed.  If anyone goes back and reads my full OP and many of my replies, they will see this is exactly what I said would happen...a trade of Zay Jones.  

 

I suggested we would sign at least 1 or 2 FA WR's...which we did.  That makes 3 new WR's in that room right now:  Brown, Cole and Duke.  

 

Most people felt Zay had a better shot at the slot spot, and I did as well.  But the issue is he doesn't do anything good that you need you slot WR to be.  He's not twitchy or quick, he doesn't have reliable hands, and he isnt a polished route runner.  Enter Cole Beasley, job is officially 100% his barring injury.  

 

Now Zay is already competing with Foster (who already passed him up) and Brown, who was not signed to a 4 year deal to sit on the bench.  As we sit right now, Zay may be "penciled" in by de facto of being here as a "starter" just because he knows the playbook.  The REALITY is that he is really 4th on the depth chart right now and will have to beat out either Foster or Brown because no way he takes Coles job.  But, he doesnt have the speed of either of those guys, nor does he do anything else better than them.  They are better WR's right now and Foster is still getting better and at a faster pace.

 

I will also note, Foster is out in CA working with Josh all offseason...I haven't seen any reports of Zay being there.  He could be, I could have not seen them, but I searched online and didnt find anything about Zay working out with Josh this offseason.  

 

Now we still have Duke who is a wildcard, and he has the advantage of being a different skill set that can have value to the roster by being a big target with a big catch radius.  He still has to prove he can play in the NFL, but make no mistake about it, Zay is in competition with him too even for the 4th WR spot.  

 

And that is all BEFORE we likely add a WR in the draft.  NOW, if we do NOT add a WR early (first 3 rounds) in the draft, then Zay has a better chance of at least being on the roster, but I think he will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart.  But that is also why I think Beane will look to trade him...Beane is a master at getting value and he knows if Zay sits on the bench a lot this year in a limited and diminished role, his value will be almost nothing next year and he becomes a cut candidate rather than a trade candidate.  And after spending a 2nd round pick on him, I think Beane would like some return on that if he isn't part of the long term plans.  

 

Which is why I think he gets traded sometime before week 1.  And honestly, wouldn't surprise me if he was used in a trade up package at some point during the draft.  Although, I do not expect that and I think Zay more likely gets traded in something like you suggested njbluff or he makes it to camp and preseason and gets traded sometime during that like Watkins was.  Maybe even showcase him early in preseason like they did with Watkins.

 

All hinges on if the Bills are drafting a WR high.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, njbuff said:

 

All hinges on if the Bills are drafting a WR high.

 

Yup, this I do agree on.  And I referenced this in my OP too where I said my prediction was based on what I expect the Beane to do at WR over the offseason, which included a rookie WR that was a relevant draft pick.  If they say invest in a day 3 WR, I don't think that immediately threatens Zay, but once camp and preseason gets here then there will be stiff competition.  But if we take one with one of our first 3 picks, then I think that will be the end of Zays tenure at some point before week 1.  

[MikeSpeed]

You guys make me laugh. What makes you guys think Brown, Beasley are so much better than Jones? Their stats certainly don't show it. Brown had 1 really good year when Palmer was throwing him the ball, other than that nothing special. Beasley has been in the NFL 7 years and has had only 2 years where he had more yardage than Jones did last year. Jones had 7 TDs last year. Beasley has never had that many in a season. Brown did once.

I get that we need better production from Zay, but to want him cut because he is so much worse than Brown and Beasley is not looking at this objectively.

 

[njbuff]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, this I do agree on.  And I referenced this in my OP too where I said my prediction was based on what I expect the Beane to do at WR over the offseason, which included a rookie WR that was a relevant draft pick.  If they say invest in a day 3 WR, I don't think that immediately threatens Zay, but once camp and preseason gets here then there will be stiff competition.  But if we take one with one of our first 3 picks, then I think that will be the end of Zays tenure at some point before week 1.  

 

We know they love Harmon. 

 

If he is related to Ronnie, I don't want the Bills to draft him.?

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

All hinges on if the Bills are drafting a WR high.

WR is very deep this year.  A 4th/5th round WR selection just might be hungry and talented enough to take Zays spot

[Alphadawg7]

On 3/15/2019 at 8:15 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Our last 4 games of the season:

• Week 14 - Jets - 3 catches on 9 targets for 22 yards.  Terrible
• Week 15 - Lions - 1 catch on 6 targets for 11 yards.  Probably worst game of his career.  Slay dominated him as much as a DB can ever dominate a WR.
• Week 16 - Pats - 5 catches on 9 targets for 67 yards, 1 TD.  MISLEADING.  4 catches or 36 yards on 8 targets with 1:17 left in the game down 24-6.  Gets garbage 31 yard TD when no one covers him on broken coverage.  One of his worst games of the year.
• Week 17 - Dolphins - 6 catches on 9 attempts for 93 years and 2 TD's.  Only good game down the stretch, but it was also a week 17 game against an awful Miami team who mailed it in and didn't bother to show up to play.  

 

I posted this on the previous page...just a reminder about the myth of Zay.  People throughout this thread kept claiming he really came on strong with Allen down the stretch.  Just was not factual in any way possible.  Weeks 14, 15, and 16 were just awful games for Zay and 2 of them were among the worst of his career in weeks 15 and 16 where he was physically dominated about as bad as a WR could be in each of those.  

 

The reality is that Zay had only 2 decent games with Allen, and both were against the woeful Dolphins.  He did almost nothing in all the other games.  But because people stat box check instead of watching the games, they keep thinking the NE game was good, which it was utterly terrible.  Just one free gimme play on broken coverage with a minute left made his stat box look like he had a good game.  But it was one of his worst games of the year.  

 

Not to mention the drops, the trouble getting open on his initial route, the sloppy route running, and the lack of both mental and physical toughness.  I just dont see how he will beat out either Brown or Foster, and I am doubtful he can beat out Duke even before Duke has stepped on an NFL field.  Not to mention a talented rookie.  

 

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

WR is very deep this year.  A 4th/5th round WR selection just might be hungry and talented enough to take Zays spot

 

Heck I think either Duke or McKenzie has a shot to take his spot even before we add that rookie.  

Edited March 27, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Heck I think either Duke or McKenzie has a shot to take his spot even before we add that rookie.  

I think Duke pulls way ahead of Zay.  Duke has excelled everywhere and at every level-HS, SEC, CFL.  And like you stated, Duke has a skillset that Zay does not possess 

[badassgixxer05]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I posted this on the previous page...just a reminder about the myth of Zay.  People throughout this thread kept claiming he really came on strong with Allen down the stretch.  Just was not factual in any way possible.  Weeks 14, 15, and 16 were just awful games for Zay and 2 of them were among the worst of his career in weeks 15 and 16 where he was physically dominated about as bad as a WR could be in each of those. 

He was averaging over 8 targets a game during that stretch. I would say he was Allens go to target whether he was catching all those balls or not. To discredit production because it was 4th quarter or last game of year is bs. Why do we even track stats the whole year then. AB must be garbage because he went off on the browns twice a year for almost a decade. Zay had production in NFL games. When did Beasly or Brown go off on anyone recently that makes them that much better?

The truth is all 4 top receivers are currently at the same level. Whoever out performs in camp will be starting. They signed these guys for competition the same if they draft anyone.

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

I think Duke pulls way ahead of Zay.  Duke has excelled everywhere and at every level-HS, SEC, CFL.  And like you stated, Duke has a skillset that Zay does not possess 

 

Yeah, I am high on Duke.  I think he will surprise some people.  I get it, he has to still prove it...but so does every rookie.  This guy is further along than a rookie, and talent was never an issue.  Plus he is hungry to prove he belongs.  

 

I think Duke has a real shot to make the roster as 4th or 5th WR, but I also think he could challenge for a starting spot too.  He is a big Redzone target, something our other WR's lack.  So if he comes on strong, wouldn't surprise me to see him on one side of the field.  Then you rotate Foster and Brown as the speed guy opposite him to keep the legs fresh and also rotate Duke out to put both Foster and Brown on the field on plays for deep pressure.  

Edited March 27, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Pete]

27 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, I am high on Duke.  I think he will surprise some people.  I get it, he has to still prove it...but so does every rookie.  This guy is further along than a rookie, and talent was never an issue.  Plus he is hungry to prove he belongs.  

 

I think Duke has a real shot to make the roster as 4th or 5th WR, but I also think he could challenge for a starting spot too.  He is a big Redzone target, something our other WR's lack.  So if he comes on strong, wouldn't surprise me to see him on one side of the field.  Then you rotate Foster and Brown as the speed guy opposite him to keep the legs fresh and also rotate Duke out to put both Foster and Brown on the field on plays for deep pressure.  

Our WRs group is much better this season, and better then many realize.  Pair Brown's speed with Foster, give Josh some time- that is a long TD waiting to happen!  Opposing defense will have to respect their speed.  That will open underneath for Beasley, who is slippery, and catches everything.  And Duke is tough, and will win 50/50 battles.  Andre Roberts is our returner.  That is 5 locks IMO, barring injury. We probably will draft at least one WR.   After FA our roster is pretty deep 1-53.  And with 10 picks, and all that cap room, we might not have luxury of keeping 6 WR.  Personally I would use that roster spot on quality OL.  Last years WR group in training cap was awful.  This years group will be way more professional and skilled.  Ahem Zay, I am just saying......

Edited March 27, 2019 by Pete

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

Our WRs group is much better this season, and better then many realize.  Pair Brown's speed with Foster, give Josh some time- that is a long TD waiting to happen!  Opposing defense will have to respect their speed.  That will open underneath for Beasley, who is slippery, and catches everything.  And Duke is tough, and will win 50/50 battles.  Andre Roberts is our returner.  That is 5 locks IMO, barring injury. We probably will draft at least one WR.   After FA our roster is pretty deep 1-53.  And with 10 picks, and all that cap room, we might not have luxury of keeping 6 WR.  Personally I would use that roster spot on quality OL.  Last years WR group in training cap was awful.  This years group will be way more professional and skilled.  Ahem Zay, I am just saying......

Brown and Beasley are locks because of their signings. 

 

Brown > Foster who is not a lock if he can’t do things other than run fast 

 

Zay is an NFL WR. Duke is a CFL WR, absolutely not a lock. He hasn’t proven a thing in the league. 

 

Zay is still the most versatile WR on the Bills. 

 

Roberts May be a lock, depending on how good the rest of his game is (ST defending and WR) 

 

to me cerainty of being on the roster follows this sequence 1 being most likely, last being least:

 

Likely: 

1. Cole

2. Brown 

3. Zay

4. Roberts 

5. Foster 

 

Outside looking In:

Isaiah / Duke / Scott / Ray ray / v Boldin / Phillips 

 

[Misterbluesky]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

WR is very deep this year.  A 4th/5th round WR selection just might be hungry and talented enough to take Zays spot

Anthony Johnson..Beane was at two UB games because of him.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Misterbluesky

[John from Riverside]

I wonder what Zay would fetch in trade?

[Kelly the Dog]

26 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I wonder what Zay would fetch in trade?

Does any team have a TE, OT, LB or DL who jumped naked through glass on a balcony?

[Estro]

Zay jones fetches you at best a 6th rounder and that's only because he has a couple up cheap years left of you can get anything out of him.

 

His stock is low though.....hes shown very little on the field, and his off the field became a concern last year.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Brown and Beasley are locks because of their signings. 

 

Brown > Foster who is not a lock if he can’t do things other than run fast 

 

Zay is an NFL WR. Duke is a CFL WR, absolutely not a lock. He hasn’t proven a thing in the league. 

 

Zay is still the most versatile WR on the Bills. 

 

Roberts May be a lock, depending on how good the rest of his game is (ST defending and WR) 

 

to me cerainty of being on the roster follows this sequence 1 being most likely, last being least:

 

Likely: 

1. Cole

2. Brown 

3. Zay

4. Roberts 

5. Foster 

 

Outside looking In:

Isaiah / Duke / Scott / Ray ray / v Boldin / Phillips 

 

 

[Real McClappy]

1 hour ago, Misterbluesky said:

Anthony Johnson..Beane was at two UB games because of him.

I like this dude a ton as well.

[mjt328]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Agreed.  If anyone goes back and reads my full OP and many of my replies, they will see this is exactly what I said would happen...a trade of Zay Jones.  

 

I suggested we would sign at least 1 or 2 FA WR's...which we did.  That makes 3 new WR's in that room right now:  Brown, Cole and Duke.  

 

Most people felt Zay had a better shot at the slot spot, and I did as well.  But the issue is he doesn't do anything good that you need your slot WR to be.  He's not twitchy or quick, he doesn't have reliable hands, and he isnt a polished route runner.  Enter Cole Beasley, job is officially 100% his barring injury.  

 

Now Zay is already competing with Foster (who already passed him up) and Brown, who was not signed to a 4 year deal to sit on the bench.  As we sit right now, Zay may be "penciled" in by de facto of being here as a "starter" just because he knows the playbook.  The REALITY is that he is really 4th on the depth chart right now and will have to beat out either Foster or Brown because no way he takes Coles job.  But, he doesnt have the speed of either of those guys, nor does he do anything else better than them.  They are better WR's right now and Foster is still getting better and at a faster pace.

 

I will also note, Foster is out in CA working with Josh all offseason...I haven't seen any reports of Zay being there.  He could be, I could have not seen them, but I searched online and didnt find anything about Zay working out with Josh this offseason.  

 

Now we still have Duke who is a wildcard, and he has the advantage of being a different skill set that can have value to the roster by being a big target with a big catch radius.  He still has to prove he can play in the NFL, but make no mistake about it, Zay is in competition with him too even for the 4th WR spot.  

 

And that is all BEFORE we likely add a WR in the draft.  NOW, if we do NOT add a WR early (first 3 rounds) in the draft, then Zay has a better chance of at least being on the roster, but I think he will be no higher than 4th on the depth chart.  But that is also why I think Beane will look to trade him...Beane is a master at getting value and he knows if Zay sits on the bench a lot this year in a limited and diminished role, his value will be almost nothing next year and he becomes a cut candidate rather than a trade candidate.  And after spending a 2nd round pick on him, I think Beane would like some return on that if he isn't part of the long term plans.  

 

Which is why I think he gets traded sometime before week 1.  And honestly, wouldn't surprise me if he was used in a trade up package at some point during the draft.  Although, I do not expect that and I think Zay more likely gets traded in something like you suggested njbluff or he makes it to camp and preseason and gets traded sometime during that like Watkins was.  Maybe even showcase him early in preseason like they did with Watkins.

 

Possible.  But your theory depends on us drafting a WR high, which I just don't see happening.

 

We haven't replaced Kyle Williams, and will have a handful of talented DTs staring us in the face at #9.

We are clearly in the market for another DE, but were unable to get one in free agency (at least not yet).

Our weakest position is Tight End.  If Daboll is trying to copy the Patriots at all, this will not be the case for long.

 

Now that he's got some freedom with the cap, you can see how Beane likes to approach the roster.  Instead of going top-heavy, he likes stockpiling depth and making them fight for a roster spot.  I don't see him considering Zay Jones expendable yet.  I also don't think he's ready to hand Robert Foster a Top 3 spot after handful of good games his rookie season.

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Possible.  But your theory depends on us drafting a WR high, which I just don't see happening.

 

We haven't replaced Kyle Williams, and will have a handful of talented DTs staring us in the face at #9.

We are clearly in the market for another DE, but were unable to get one in free agency (at least not yet).

Our weakest position is Tight End.  If Daboll is trying to copy the Patriots at all, this will not be the case for long.

 

Now that he's got some freedom with the cap, you can see how Beane likes to approach the roster.  Instead of going top-heavy, he likes stockpiling depth and making them fight for a roster spot.  I don't see him considering Zay Jones expendable yet.  I also don't think he's ready to hand Robert Foster a Top 3 spot after handful of good games his rookie season.

 

 

 

 

Foster has more good games in his 7 games than Zay has in 30 games.

 

Foster - 7 games:  three 100 yard games.

 

Zay - 30 games:  zero 100 yard games and 22 games under 40 yards.  

 

Foster deserves to start more than Zay and it’s not close.