Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[NewEraBills]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

To add, the way I see it, Beasley and Brown are starters.  They did not sign them both this early and at those prices to be backups.  So that leaves it at a dog fight between nearly 4 guys.  I doubt we carry more than 6 WR's.  So, I see it the way you do.  Zay Jones, barring some miracle turnaround is in trouble.  As we have said time and time again:

1.  He struggles to win on the perimeter.

2.  He's not going to outrun anyone on the perimeter

3.  He's been inconsistent with his hands.

 

With Beasley taking the slot role he's going to have to play outside which to me gives Foster the upper hand.  Foster needs to work on his route running but the one thing he can do that Zay cannot is run past someone.  He's worked on his hands and gotten better.  So even if we just went with our current group Jones may have already dropped to #4.  In any case if he's on this roster, then he's earned the hell out of it because these acquisitions have almost sealed that last nail in the coffin.  Let's say Zay is already #4 behind Brown, Beasley, and Foster.  What does Duke Williams provide?  Finally, if they bring in a high or mid round pick, what will they provide?  Zay is indeed in trouble.  I didn't see it before, but I do now.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

 

To add, the way I see it, Beasley and Brown are starters.  They did not sign them both this early and at those prices to be backups.  So that leaves it at a dog fight between nearly 4 guys.  I doubt we carry more than 6 WR's.  So, I see it the way you do.  Zay Jones, barring some miracle turnaround is in trouble.  As we have said time and time again:

1.  He struggles to win on the perimeter.

2.  He's not going to outrun anyone on the perimeter

3.  He's been inconsistent with his hands.

 

With Beasley taking the slot role he's going to have to play outside which to me gives Foster the upper hand.  Foster needs to work on his route running but the one thing he can do that Zay cannot is run past someone.  He's worked on his hands and gotten better.  So even if we just went with our current group Jones may have already dropped to #4.  In any case if he's on this roster, then he's earned the hell out of it because these acquisitions have almost sealed that last nail in the coffin.  Let's say Zay is already #4 behind Brown, Beasley, and Foster.  What does Duke Williams provide?  Finally, if they bring in a high or mid round pick, what will they provide?  Zay is indeed in trouble.  I didn't see it before, but I do now.

 

Good post, and yes, this is exactly what I see too and have seen which is what prompted me to create this thread originally.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

On 2/27/2019 at 4:23 PM, Flip Johnson said:

 

This is the rare, well-written, carefully reasoned, totally ridiculous take on this board.

 

The Bills need WRs. 

They have a 23yr old that they invested a 2nd round pick in.

He is cost-controlled.

He more than doubled his catches in year 2.

 

There is zero chance he gets cut this year.

 

 

John Brown: 3 year, 27 million dollar deal

Cole Beasley, 4 year, 29 million dollar deal

 

If it's between Zay, Foster and Duke, then you may very well have made your own self look ridiculous.

 

GOOD LUCK, CHUCK!!!

[eball]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

You two will both be incorrect.

 

Yep, could be.  I clearly can't make up my mind with respect to Zay! 

[VW82]

I'd be more than a little surprised if Zay isn't on the team this year. I can't take issue with any of OP's criticisms, except maybe that Zay seems like a high IQ player and I think he's a pretty good blocker for a WR, but he's still likely to be top 5-6 on the depth chart. If not, show me the six guys who are making the team over Zay. The fact he's a recent high pick of this regime, he's young and cheap, and by all accounts is a good locker room guy, has a strong work ethic, etc.,..I just don't see McBeane moving on from him so quickly.  

Edited March 12, 2019 by VW82

[Reader]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

I'm not very knowledgeable about Brown's or Beasley's run blocking abilities. Are any of the WR's better at blocking than Jones? From what I remember (which of course isn't the most reliable) Jones was able to set up some really good blocks during the year. If he is our best blocking WR that could be an important factor.

[Matt_In_NH]

I would argue zay was better than Beasley last year.   Or at least they had comparable stat lines but zay had significantly more tds.  

[WideNine]

On 3/12/2019 at 4:10 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hey, we very well may be incorrect.  This was never some arrogant guarantee, just my gut feeling based on what McD and Beane have consistently said and based on how many new WR's I expected them to bring in.  So far, they have brought in 3 and are very likely to bring in at least one prominent rookie.  

 

And now, looking at the WR room, I would put Zay already 4th on the depth chart today behind Foster, Brown, and Cole.  Not to mention Duke can still challenge to start or at least for relevant playing time too.  Then you still have McKenzie.  

 

Now add a rookie into the mix, and where does Zay fit so "easily"?  Cole Beasley just took his slot job.  That means Zay now has to complete to start as WR1 or WR2 or he will be a bench and rotational guy.  Brown wasn't signed to sit behind everyone, so he is at least penciled into one of those 2 spots.  Foster already passed Zay in most peoples eyes, and then you will have Duke and a rookie pushing those guys too.  

 

Zay may end up on this roster, but its FAR from a lock.  Slot is gone, Cole is the 100% for sure slot WR this year.  He we have 4 WRs who will challenge for the top 2 WR spots already...Foster, Brown, Zay, Duke plus a 5th one likely to get into the mix from the draft.  Not sure why anyone has great optimism that Zay will beat 3 or 4 other WR's to secure a starting spot. 

 

He will likely be given the chance to, but he hasn't done well in pressure situations prior to this.  And if he doesn't beat out those guys for a starting spot, I think he will be traded for something like a 5th round pick to get some value before spending a season on the bench diminishes all trade value.  

 

Never thought your take was too far-fetched.

 

I don't think that the McBean FO has been that reluctant to jettison players or coaches they have brought in if they felt they could improve that area with someone else, and all the comments about looking to add receivers who can catch the ball...

 

Addition by subtraction and makes sense if they can upgrade the spot...thoughts of him moving to a slot role are out too - the Beasley signing looks like that to me.

 

If Zay is not worried, he should be.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by WideNine

[Bing Bong]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I wasn't saying Zay cant, I was stating that the "Year 3" factor has been mentioned many times in several threads and that the "Year 3" theory on WR's has been debunked many times.  

 

So the point was, any WR going into their 3rd year does NOT have a higher chance of breaking out just because its their 3rd year.  That "3 year" WR theory has been debunked many times.  

Have you debunked it somewhere? Just genuinely want to know how that's debunked. Any examples or anything?

 

It's super common in fantasy football is all I'm coming from. The general rule is year 3 is the year you generally can tell a WRs trajectory. So it's not to say he can't hit his potential earlier, rookie or sophomore year.. but it's more that year 3 of poor results is the year a WR likely shows he won't break out.. so fantasy sleepers are often year 3 guys. Year 4 is too many years of poor production. 

 

Also it's fantasy so not exactly a reflection on actual development but more a combination of that and the guy getting a larger role in the offense.

 

But have you/some source debunked this on previous posts or are just saying it's debunked. Fantasy football nerds have crunched that WR sleepers are by far year 3 guys. I understand they can be good before. And in Zay's case he's had plenty of usage in 2 years already.

Edited March 13, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Have you debunked it somewhere? Just genuinely want to know how that's debunked. Any examples or anything?

 

It's super common in fantasy football is all I'm coming from. The general rule is year 3 is the year you generally can tell a WRs trajectory. So it's not to say he can't hit his potential earlier, rookie or sophomore year.. but it's more that year 3 of poor results is the year a WR likely shows he won't break out.. so fantasy sleepers are often year 3 guys. Year 4 is too many years of poor production. 

 

Also it's fantasy so not exactly a reflection on actual development but more a combination of that and the guy getting a larger role in the offense.

 

But have you/some source debunked this on previous posts or are just saying it's debunked. Fantasy football nerds have crunched that WR sleepers are by far year 3 guys. I understand they can be good before. And in Zay's case he's had plenty of usage in 2 years already.

 

I am a fantasy football junkie to say the least, ha.  So love the FFL tie in.

 

But its been debunked (fantasy included) many times.  There is a big difference though when looking at it from fantasy.  There is "breakout" season and then there is continued development and rising production.  So saying that in year 3 a WR may his best season doesn't also qualify that as his break out season.  He may have broken out in years 1 and 2 then goes out and puts up a bigger season in year 3.  Also years 5-7 are actually usually the most consistently productive for WR's. 

 

So the correlation to FFL isn't the same as how you would grade a WR in terms of whether or not he is going to be a good player or bust.  A breakout is just that, a WR's first relevant season.  

 

For example, here is one sample case showing it that comes from a fantasy site too.  But this has literally been debunked many times over the years.  https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/02/19/factoid/third-year-breakout-for-wide-receivers

[Bing Bong]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am a fantasy football junkie to say the least, ha.  So love the FFL tie in.

 

But its been debunked (fantasy included) many times.  There is a big difference though when looking at it from fantasy.  There is "breakout" season and then there is continued development and rising production.  So saying that in year 3 a WR may his best season doesn't also qualify that as his break out season.  He may have broken out in years 1 and 2 then goes out and puts up a bigger season in year 3.  Also years 5-7 are actually usually the most consistently productive for WR's. 

 

So the correlation to FFL isn't the same as how you would grade a WR in terms of whether or not he is going to be a good player or bust.  A breakout is just that, a WR's first relevant season.  

 

For example, here is one sample case showing it that comes from a fantasy site too.  But this has literally been debunked many times over the years.  https://www.fantasyindex.com/2018/02/19/factoid/third-year-breakout-for-wide-receivers

Not quite how I've interpreted the year 3 thing. I'm not looking for peak years at 3 from guys that have already broken out.

 

Mostly talking about sleepers. So no breakouts. A guy that's just totally overlooked because he's had bad production years 1 and 2. So high value / ceiling guys on the cheap.. I'm looking at 3rd year WRs that have underperformed so far because they're undervalued yet that's when they're most likely to break out if at all.

 

So I don't look for sleepers as guys that have already broken out before (they're not necessarily sleepers), or haven't broken out at 3 (they're not likely to break out ever).

 

My understanding is essentially a guy is most likely to break out years 1-3 and that the breakout becomes much less likely after. So I look at guys that haven't broken out and are at year 3. If they break out, I have my low investment sleeper return. Not looking for any peak performance at year 3, just breakout at 3 when people aren't valuing the dude after 2 years. 

 

I do agree that people make the statement that the peak hits at 3, which isn't true or helpful really, whereas i think fantasy value ties more to catching a breakout when it's most likely: a player that hasn't broken out hitting year 3 is very likely to break out that year (provided if he ever is to be productive) than for the rest of his career.

 

Ultimately tying back to Zay he's had such high usage you could argue he broke out last year. He's not some fantasy case where he's simply finally getting a shot on the depth chart. But if he's going to have a great career.. I wouldn't rule it out until this next year. Then his career trajectory should be much more clear. So I'd keep him around for that fact and that he's on a rookie contract and really hasn't shown the skills I thought he was supposed to have from the college level. If it's the same by year 4 I'm pretty iffy going forward with him.

 

Anyways sounds like you actually may be right on your hot take with our 2 WR signings already.. but I'd keep him if we have enough roster spots lol.

[BillsFan17]

Depends how the draft falls. If they get a good WR early, they are def going to ship out Zay.

[Mat68]

More pass catchers the better.  I wont be surprised if he is the most prolific Wr we have at the end of the year next year.  Catches, Yards, TDs.  Comes down to who will Allen have the best repor with.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

More pass catchers the better.  I wont be surprised if he is the most prolific Wr we have at the end of the year next year.  Catches, Yards, TDs.  Comes down to who will Allen have the best repor with.  

 

...rapport  

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

...rapport  

I'm certainly no English major.

[Shaw66]

Alpha, I gotta say that Brown and Beasley make your prediction look pretty good.  Beasley and Duke threaten Zay big time.

[Chuck Wagon]

Foster / Brown / Beasley all seem to have pretty defined roles.

 

I think we want to go rotation heavy with the WR group, ie not having one guy playing 98% of the snaps to keep everyone fresh. It's safe to say Zay / Duke / McKenzie / McCloud / Bolden / Thompson are all competing for playing time and roster spots.  The draft will likely say a lot of how the team views Zay, WR is a very deep position and if we grab one on day 2, Zay better be bringing it hard in camp.

[BadtasteinQBs]

This is obviously a statement to grab attention. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, BadtasteinQBs said:

This is obviously a statement to grab attention. 

Based on what? It was a very thoughtful post.

 

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think Jones will be our best receiver next year which will make our free agent signings likely disappointing.