Kirby Jackson Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 I like the idea of Ross for one of our 4ths or 5ths. He would fit well with Allen. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 John Ross catch rate was around 37% in 2018. Im all for taking a chance on him for one of our 5ths, but don’t let the 7TDs cloud the risk factor here. There are WRs in this draft with similar skill sets we can draft in rounds 4 and 5. Trading for Ross is not a must. 1
BringBackOrton Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: John Ross catch rate was around 37% in 2018. Im all for taking a chance on him for one of our 5ths, but don’t let the 7TDs cloud the risk factor here. There are WRs in this draft with similar skill sets we can draft in rounds 4 and 5. Trading for Ross is not a must. There is no one in the 4th round who will be as explosively fast. Edited March 6, 2019 by BringBackOrton
MJS Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: There is no one in the 4th round who will be as explosively fast. Speed is only one factor that can help a WR. Plenty of fast, explosive guys flame out of the league, and plenty of slower guys have 15 year careers.
Alphadawg7 Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said: There is no one in the 4th round who will be as explosively fast. You don’t need to be as fast as Ross to be explosive given Ross had insane 40 time. There are some speedsters expected to go in rounds 3 to 5. And there are always WRs that go later than expected every year, so some of the 2nd/3rd projected guys will likely be available a little later than expected. And honestly I would rather use a 3rd on someone like Isabella rather than a 4th on Ross. It’s also possible Marquise Brown could slip to 3rd too after injury and the amount of WRs who raised their stock at the combine. If that happens then run to the podium in the 3rd.
Coach Tuesday Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: You don’t need to be as fast as Ross to be explosive given Ross had insane 40 time. There are some speedsters expected to go in rounds 3 to 5. And there are always WRs that go later than expected every year, so some of the 2nd/3rd projected guys will likely be available a little later than expected. And honestly I would rather use a 3rd on someone like Isabella rather than a 4th on Ross. It’s also possible Marquise Brown could slip to 3rd too after injury and the amount of WRs who raised their stock at the combine. If that happens then run to the podium in the 3rd. Isabella is now a second - at least. 1
BringBackOrton Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: You don’t need to be as fast as Ross to be explosive given Ross had insane 40 time. There are some speedsters expected to go in rounds 3 to 5. And there are always WRs that go later than expected every year, so some of the 2nd/3rd projected guys will likely be available a little later than expected. And honestly I would rather use a 3rd on someone like Isabella rather than a 4th on Ross. It’s also possible Marquise Brown could slip to 3rd too after injury and the amount of WRs who raised their stock at the combine. If that happens then run to the podium in the 3rd. I suppose that’s “possible” but acquiring Ross is a guarantee if you can trade for him now. I think late round picks are INSANELY overrated. We have this argument for RB’s all the time. Lots of RB’s who are acquired in the 4th, fifth and sixth rounds are JAGs who contribute minimally. Yet, that’s everyone’s plan for shoring up the position. WR is no different, IMO. I dont think there will be a 4th round WR available with Ross’ upside. 8 minutes ago, MJS said: Speed is only one factor that can help a WR. Plenty of fast, explosive guys flame out of the league, and plenty of slower guys have 15 year careers. Excellent, which slower guy do you want instead of Ross? Edited March 6, 2019 by BringBackOrton
MJS Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Excellent, which slower guy do you want instead of Ross? No preference. I'm sure the Bills have plans to bring guys in. Plus, it doesn't appear Ross is going to be traded, so you can want him all you want, but that won't get a trade done. 1
BarleyNY Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: There is no one in the 4th round who will be as explosively fast. It would not take a 4th. This is only about the Bengals dumping his guaranteed contract. They’d probably flip picks 181 for 183 and Ross. And I still wouldn’t do it because he can’t play WR.
ROCBillsBeliever Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 9:33 AM, racketmaster said: Recent Bills 4th and 5th round picks: 2018: Tarron Johnson, Siran Neal and Wyatt Teller 2017: Matt Millano and Nathan Peterman 2016: Cardale Jones and Jonathan Williams 2015: Karlos Williams 2014: Ross Cockrell and Cyril Richardson 2013: Duke Williams and Jonathan Meeks 2012: Ron Brooks, Zebre Sanders and Tank Carder 2011: D’Norris Searcy, Chris Hariston and Johnny White 2010: Marcus Easley and Ed Wang I don’t want to minimize the value of a 4th or 5th round pick but it is relatively rare you are going to miss out on a really good player in those rounds. More often than not you are talking about special teams players and solid depth rather than difference makers. So I think it is worth the risk for the shot at a difference maker (elite speed guy that would be a good fit with a qb that has a rocket arm). I like the logic, here, @racketmaster, but I think we need more time to judge the value of this regimes' 4th and 5th round picks. The 2017 draft had Whaley's stench on it, so that's hard to argue over; you almost have to toss it out as a partial-past regime draft. 2018 hasn't panned out fully, yet. Teller has potential, but we aren't sure what he will be. Taron Johnson looks like gold, and Neal I'm on the fence over. 2018's 5th round could end up producing a stud and two starters. Thanks for the reference of past years, though; it's good to consider.
BringBackOrton Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 26 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: It would not take a 4th. This is only about the Bengals dumping his guaranteed contract. They’d probably flip picks 181 for 183 and Ross. And I still wouldn’t do it because he can’t play WR. No way, they would never accept that. Also, you’re insane if you wouldn’t take that. 15 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said: I like the logic, here, @racketmaster, but I think we need more time to judge the value of this regimes' 4th and 5th round picks. The 2017 draft had Whaley's stench on it, so that's hard to argue over; you almost have to toss it out as a partial-past regime draft. 2018 hasn't panned out fully, yet. Teller has potential, but we aren't sure what he will be. Taron Johnson looks like gold, and Neal I'm on the fence over. 2018's 5th round could end up producing a stud and two starters. Thanks for the reference of past years, though; it's good to consider. Lots of 4th and 5th rounders semi-contribute in the early years of their contracts because you’re giving them a chance. That doesn’t make them good or successful picks. Case in point, Duke Williams as a rookie and sophomore got snaps, Meeks got some snaps, Karlos played a lot, Brooks got looks, Hairston, Easley etc. None of them were good. Neal getting a snap or 5 per game means nothing. Edited March 6, 2019 by BringBackOrton
BarleyNY Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: No way, they would never accept that. Also, you’re insane if you wouldn’t take that. I guess I’m just smart enough to not want the Bills to eat Ross’s $4.8M guaranteed salary (and cap space) over the next two years since I recognize that he’s not good enough to be in the NFL at any price. But that’s just me. I look at more than 40 times.
Andrew Son Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: I guess I’m just smart enough to not want the Bills to eat Ross’s $4.8M guaranteed salary (and cap space) over the next two years since I recognize that he’s not good enough to be in the NFL at any price. But that’s just me. I look at more than 40 times. Do you look at touchdowns?
Alphadawg7 Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said: Isabella is now a second - at least. Certainly could be, but there are a LOT of WRs who could go in the 2nd
BringBackOrton Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 28 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: I guess I’m just smart enough to not want the Bills to eat Ross’s $4.8M guaranteed salary (and cap space) over the next two years since I recognize that he’s not good enough to be in the NFL at any price. But that’s just me. I look at more than 40 times. $4.8M! Jeez. That’s like.......back-up Center money. Truly a cap-prohibitive cost.
John from Riverside Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 34 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: I guess I’m just smart enough to not want the Bills to eat Ross’s $4.8M guaranteed salary (and cap space) over the next two years since I recognize that he’s not good enough to be in the NFL at any price. But that’s just me. I look at more than 40 times. His TD numbers say different Lets not act like this is a guy who cant get on the field
YoloinOhio Posted March 6, 2019 Author Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: I like the idea of Ross for one of our 4ths or 5ths. He would fit well with Allen. I would play him in the slot. He has short area quickness as well as deep speed. Edited March 6, 2019 by YoloinOhio 2
ROCBillsBeliever Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 56 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Lots of 4th and 5th rounders semi-contribute in the early years of their contracts because you’re giving them a chance. That doesn’t make them good or successful picks. Case in point, Duke Williams as a rookie and sophomore got snaps, Meeks got some snaps, Karlos played a lot, Brooks got looks, Hairston, Easley etc. None of them were good. Neal getting a snap or 5 per game means nothing. I believe both of my statements were hedged bets, at most: "2018 hasn't panned out fully, yet. Teller has potential, but we aren't sure what he will be. Taron Johnson looks like gold, and Neal I'm on the fence over. 2018's 5th round could end up producing a stud and two starters." And I said I was on the fence over Neal... I'm not sure if you're trying to make an argument, but there's really not one to be made here. I said the jury's out on 2018, but we can't look to the past regimes' drafts to indicate how successful this regime will be at finding diamonds in the rough in the 4th and 5th round. We clear?
BarleyNY Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 52 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Do you look at touchdowns? This is a great example of someone trying to win an argument instead of trying to figure out the right course of action. Let’s look at the whole picture, shall we? He was targeted 60 times. He caught only 21 of those passes for a mere 210 yards, but he did have 7 TDs. 5 were intercepted though. And this was over two seasons in which he played in 16 games. Whats that all mean? Well, a catch rate of 35% is abysmal, but getting a TD on 33% of the times he actually caught the ball is sure nice. The 5 INTs are an issue though - especially considering his catch rate. It points to a WR who doesn’t run his routes correctly/well or gets knocked off them easily. The TD to Catch rate points to a blazing fast player since he’s not winning jump balls at his size. Also he’s had injury issues I see. In any event, I see no reason to guarantee such a player $4.8M. I wouldn’t do it if he was a street FA and I sure as hell wouldn’t give draft pick compensation on top of that. If he is cut I’d take a flyer on him, but I wouldn’t guarantee him anything. The ONLY way I’d consider giving up even a very late pick for him is if responsibility for his guaranteed salary reverted back to Cincy if we cut him - and that’s a rare trade clause.
mannc Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said: I suppose that’s “possible” but acquiring Ross is a guarantee if you can trade for him now. I think late round picks are INSANELY overrated. We have this argument for RB’s all the time. Lots of RB’s who are acquired in the 4th, fifth and sixth rounds are JAGs who contribute minimally. Yet, that’s everyone’s plan for shoring up the position. WR is no different, IMO. I dont think there will be a 4th round WR available with Ross’ upside. Excellent, which slower guy do you want instead of Ross? Ross has definitely gotten off to a slow start in the NFL due to injuries and who knows what else. But he's got blazing speed and he was highly productive in college, playing at the highest level. Seems like a pretty good investment of a fourth round pick, if that in fact is the asking price.
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