Free Agency Fool’s Gold

[Tatonka68]

1- Center/ Paradis 1st choice or Morse 2nd choice

2-Tackle Daryl Williams 1st choice or Ju'wan Taylor 2nd choice.

3-Wide Receiver Geronimo Allison 1st choice or Adam Humphries 2nd choice.

4. Tight End Jesse James 1st choice or Tyler Kroft 2nd choice.

 

 

 

 

[dpberr]

There are a lot of guys on there with worrisome injury stats.  Morse has missed a lot of games.  

[Southern Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t know Oldtimer. I have watched the Saints do it for YEARS. The NFL salary cap is designed to allow you to kick the can down the road. There is really no such thing as “cap trouble” unless you are inept. You can make any move that you want a reality. Every team has some places that they can “manipulate” if need be to get whomever. The Charles Clay release is a perfect example. If the Bills were strapped the Clay savings ($4.5M) could get them a competent starter(s) elsewhere. That savings alone could give the Bills something like Eiffert and Jordan Phillips. That is without ever touching the previous space.

 

To take it a step further the Bills could release Shady and the savings from Shady and Clay could get you Le’Veon Bell (if you wanted). It is all about contract structure. That’s what the Saints have figured out. They just keep pushing everything into the future because their window is open. You keep it going as long as you can and then you hit the reset button. You are fine a year later. The capologists know EXACTLY how to work the cap.

I disagree about the Saints. They went 7-9 several years in a row because Brees was greedy and refused to restructure. They seem to stay competitive now because like New England, they do it with no name receivers. Come down here and bring up the name Jarius Byrd and see the reaction you get.

[Mrbojanglezs]

We need talent. Overpaying is subjective to the current market value. If you pass on everyone because of not over paying your left with nothing. 

[Bing Bong]

I'd rather have boatloads of cap to resign performing players and not spend an insane amount of yet another mediocre crop of other teams' FAs.

 

But it'll be ages before the big contracts come back up, I never put too much stock in having all the cap we have this year. I'm all for short term, high paying contracts for the guys we need to improve so we're flexible, and have the bargaining leverage that comes with having options, to choose the talent we want to keep when the White, Poyer, Hyde, Milano and Zay contracts come up.

Edited February 26, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[T master]

Tyrell Williams WR

Paradis C 

Scaffold G

D Williams T 

J Cook TE or

J James TE 

 

Draft the rest FA taken care of ... Thank You Thank You very much !! ?

[Kirby Jackson]

59 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I disagree about the Saints. They went 7-9 several years in a row because Brees was greedy and refused to restructure. They seem to stay competitive now because like New England, they do it with no name receivers. Come down here and bring up the name Jarius Byrd and see the reaction you get.

I live there. I know how people feel about Byrd. At the time they signed Byrd they had very little cap space. That’s the point. I can’t think of any players that the Saints were forced to jettison because they were cash strapped? They made some bad decisions (ie Byrd) but the foundation of their team was always in tact.

 

They are talking about trying to get Antonio Brown now. They are 28th in “cap space.” It’s not a real thing. You push your chips in when your window is open and then you take some lumps when it closes. If your window remains open (like the Saints) you just keep kicking the can down the road. In fact Mickey Loomis said exactly that earlier this week: https://www.nola.com/saints/2019/01/mickey-loomis-discusses-drew-brees-nfl-high-cap-hit-for-2019.html?outputType=amp

 

The ONLY time that a team faces a serious cap issue is when they push in thinking that their window is open (see: Jaguars, Jacksonville). Other than that you just tweak as necessary (or desired). The Bills weren’t in any real cap trouble. The situation just wasn’t ideal for a clean slate rebuild. They took all of their lumps at once to clear the deck. 

[nucci]

I thought the whole point of wasting last season with dead cap space was to spend this year to fill the spots created?

[oldmanfan]

Just now, nucci said:

I thought the whole point of wasting last season with dead cap space was to spend this year to fill the spots created?

Spend smartly, not wastefully.

[nucci]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Spend smartly, not wastefully.

all I read during the season was cap space and draft picks.....obviously spend smartly....goes without saying

[colin]

i think we get 1 or 2 starters on OL, a WR, prolly a TE, and if one avoids the franchise tag, maybe one of the big pass rushers.

 

that SD WR, an RT and C/G, whoever at TE, and pipe dream for one of the pass rushers (maybe quinn from the fish, does he have much left) is more or less necessary i think.  we need like 4 or 5 new starters total, and they won't all be rookies.

[Bill from NYC]

17 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Here is a summary of this year’s FAs.  I don’t see much there to overspend on and get excited about.  I trust this F.O. to spend judiciously and find a few contributors, but I don’t see it is as a good plan to spend $60mill in cap space for any group of these guys.  These are gap fillers, not game changers.

 

I see no attainable long-term starters that are real significant starters.  I’d rather find a way to get more premium draft picks (top 64) than to spend heavily on any of these guys. Can they trade down in round one and nab another 2nd?  Can they trade up from the 3rd for another 2nd?  Can they trade 2 4ths for a late 3rd?  Can they get a 2nd or 3rd in trade for a player currently on the roster?

 

Money aside, what 2 or 3 FAs can you see in this class that are really top 1/3 of the league starters at their position?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018706/article/top-101-nfl-free-agents-of-2019-demarcus-lawrence-at-no-1

 

 

CJ Mosley is an excellent LB. He really is but at what price?

 

I want the Bills to go after DJ Fluker (listed at #75, from Seattle). He has been hurt since coming out of college, now he is brutalizing people at RG. They can plug him right in at RG and he will kick ass.

[mabden]

Looking over this list of FAs. a couple of thoughts crop up.  One, there seems to be a lot of D-linemen on the list and Two, a lack of OL, TE, and WR talent.  Playing GM, I would see about filling in DL through FA.  Then go after OL, TE, WR in the draft, in that order.  However, with Ford, Jones, and the kid we signed from the CFL I would not be too worried about drafting WRs until day two.   A lot depends on who is available at the 9th position,  whether or not we trade down and pick up an extra 2nd rd pick.

 

The only other free agent on the list I would consider going hard for is Cordarrelle Patterson.  I liked the way he played every time I saw him and he seemed to hurt us consistently when given the chance.  

[BillsVet]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t know Oldtimer. I have watched the Saints do it for YEARS. The NFL salary cap is designed to allow you to kick the can down the road. There is really no such thing as “cap trouble” unless you are inept. You can make any move that you want a reality. Every team has some places that they can “manipulate” if need be to get whomever. The Charles Clay release is a perfect example. If the Bills were strapped the Clay savings ($4.5M) could get them a competent starter(s) elsewhere. That savings alone could give the Bills something like Eiffert and Jordan Phillips. That is without ever touching the previous space.

 

To take it a step further the Bills could release Shady and the savings from Shady and Clay could get you Le’Veon Bell (if you wanted). It is all about contract structure. That’s what the Saints have figured out. They just keep pushing everything into the future because their window is open. You keep it going as long as you can and then you hit the reset button. You are fine a year later. The capologists know EXACTLY how to work the cap.

 

I think that day 19 years ago when Bruce, Thurman, and Andre were let go in quick succession is what many older Bills fans still don't let go of.  Yet, so much has changed in the ensuing years, especially the yearly cap increases as the league's revenue rose.  The cap people have adapted so well, as you point out.  

 

It's a concept akin to rebuilding. I'd argue Bills fans haven't seen a successful one completed since the late 80s.  So, the idea of being like the Saints and sustaining a good team is about as foreign a concept as learning a new language. Buffalo hasn't truly rebuilt (yet), but there's a mindset that we need to hold back because there's risk in signing UFA's.  Well, not if you've done your homework and have a, dare I say it, "process." 

 

Besides, UFA should be viewed as a method to fix some needs moving into the draft.  Chicago signed 2 WRs and a TE last year to help their young QB grow into the starting job.  Sure, it wasn't cheap, but those signings are force multipliers to get their QB up to speed.  It certainly seemed to help them improve from 29th to 9th in points scored from 2017 to 2018. 

 

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, nucci said:

I thought the whole point of wasting last season with dead cap space was to spend this year to fill the spots created?

It was to clear the books to allow prudent spending on FA this year and to clear space to pay future contracts for young key players already on the roster and who will be drafted this year.

 

Free Agency is by definition a very limited employee pool - those players whose contracts expire this year and who are not resigned or tagged by their current team.  Obviously, that is not the deepest pool of potential acquisitions to be fishing in.  Overpaying for "OK" starters and role players is not a recipe for long-term success.  If player A is available in FA and is an upgrade over current players, is he worth what you will have to pay to sign him if it is 2-3x what a comparable player available in the draft can be had for?

 

Further, I assume that of the available FAs, only maybe 2 of every 3, if that are "fits" for the culture/process/profile that they want here - and I'm completely on-board with that.  That is the Patriot's model, with the exception that here the culture is not fully entrenched such that it will allow them to take a chance on misfits in the hope that the "locker room" will mold the misfit into a fit.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

I think that day 19 years ago when Bruce, Thurman, and Andre were let go in quick succession is what many older Bills fans still don't let go of.  Yet, so much has changed in the ensuing years, especially the yearly cap increases as the league's revenue rose.  The cap people have adapted so well, as you point out.  

 

It's a concept akin to rebuilding. I'd argue Bills fans haven't seen a successful one completed since the late 80s.  So, the idea of being like the Saints and sustaining a good team is about as foreign a concept as learning a new language. Buffalo hasn't truly rebuilt (yet), but there's a mindset that we need to hold back because there's risk in signing UFA's.  Well, not if you've done your homework and have a, dare I say it, "process." 

 

Besides, UFA should be viewed as a method to fix some needs moving into the draft.  Chicago signed 2 WRs and a TE last year to help their young QB grow into the starting job.  Sure, it wasn't cheap, but those signings are force multipliers to get their QB up to speed.  It certainly seemed to help them improve from 29th to 9th in points scored from 2017 to 2018. 

 

I agree with most of this, but looking at the available FA, it is not an inspiring list to overspend on.

 

i agree that if they can find a couple of good veteran anchors for the OL who can hold the fort until younger players can supplant them, then by all means sign them.  If you can get role players to sign for "reasonable" contracts - great, but for example if the plan is to sign Jesse James and John Brown to upper third of the league starters contracts, then I'd shy away unless you can reasonably project them to top half of the league starters.  If you have to pay top money for a stop-gap, you are in dangerous territory unless you can' argue that they will help Allen grow this year.

[Turk71]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I agree with most of this, but looking at the available FA, it is not an inspiring list to overspend on.

 

i agree that if they can find a couple of good veteran anchors for the OL who can hold the fort until younger players can supplant them, then by all means sign them.  If you can get role players to sign for "reasonable" contracts - great, but for example if the plan is to sign Jesse James and John Brown to upper third of the league starters contracts, then I'd shy away unless you can reasonably project them to top half of the league starters.  If you have to pay top money for a stop-gap, you are in dangerous territory unless you can' argue that they will help Allen grow this year.

A lot of quality dt de in fa this year so some might be had for decent value, the other positions not as deep so top talent will probably come at a premium.

[Shaw66]

21 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t know Oldtimer. I have watched the Saints do it for YEARS. The NFL salary cap is designed to allow you to kick the can down the road. There is really no such thing as “cap trouble” unless you are inept. You can make any move that you want a reality. Every team has some places that they can “manipulate” if need be to get whomever. The Charles Clay release is a perfect example. If the Bills were strapped the Clay savings ($4.5M) could get them a competent starter(s) elsewhere. That savings alone could give the Bills something like Eiffert and Jordan Phillips. That is without ever touching the previous space.

 

To take it a step further the Bills could release Shady and the savings from Shady and Clay could get you Le’Veon Bell (if you wanted). It is all about contract structure. That’s what the Saints have figured out. They just keep pushing everything into the future because their window is open. You keep it going as long as you can and then you hit the reset button. You are fine a year later. The capologists know EXACTLY how to work the cap.

You describe an approach, but Beane has been completely clear on multiple occasions that that is NOT his approach.   Beane has said that he wants cap room to keep the good young players they have coming up in the system, not to spend on veteran players from other teams.  

 

The Bills got rid of players with big contracts not so much to have cap room as to clear the locker room of guys who don't fit into the system and the process.  That explains why they kept Williams, and that's why Shady is still with the Bills and Dareus isn't.   It isn't about talent and it isn't about cap room; it's about the kind of guys that McDermott wants to build on.  

 

I think if you asked Beane, he'd tell you that the only free agents he's really interested in are good players who fit and who are coming off their rookie contracts.   The only more veteran players they're interested in are guys who would be great leaders in a position of need.  McDermott said it - they want a leader, preferably a veteran, in every room.   That's why, I think, they got Star - they got him to replace Kyle's leadership on the D line.  

 

They aren't going to be able to spend all of their cap room on guys coming off their rookie contracts, so they'll have cap left over.   That's okay, from their point of view, because they're building long term.  That extra cap room will come in handy as Lawson, White, Allen and Edmunds come off their contracts.  Yes, that's a couple of years away, but that's what they're thinking.   The guys who have big contracts on this team in five years will be a bunch of guys the Bills drafted in the first couple of rounds since McDermott arrived.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

23 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

We should get Gostkowski just to piss off NE.  Plus he's actually an upgrade from Hauska.

I’m surprised they didn’t franchise tag him.

[Saxum]

I think the Bills ought to not be just looking at FAs but EFAs especially from AFCE teams.  As Marv Levy said FAs signed generally hurt teams they come from more than help teams that sign them.  EFAs are generally younger and since Bills have more cap room making contracts harder to match.  My concern is signing someone like Clay who was a lower round pick to a large contract and hoping he would earn it.