JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted February 24, 2019 Posted February 24, 2019 44 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I hate being Debbie downer but you realize Steve Young is considered one of the most accurate qbs ever right? He completely 71% of his passes his last year in college when teams were actually allowed to play physical. Also, how many qbs in history have done this? I love the enthusiasm but I’m not sure how realistic it is. Young completed 52% his rookie year in the NFL. Same as Allen. 2
Alphadawg7 Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I hate being Debbie downer but you realize Steve Young is considered one of the most accurate qbs ever right? He completely 71% of his passes his last year in college when teams were actually allowed to play physical. Also, how many qbs in history have done this? I love the enthusiasm but I’m not sure how realistic it is. Hence the use of the word "Ceiling" And honestly, the whole inaccuracy thing is repeated without context so much and its not really a fair thing to say without knowing the whole story. He never committed to football in HS, hence why he wasnt recruited. He played at a JC first. He then played at Wyoming. So let's not overlook he has never at any point had really good coaching and has spent most of his development time as a Raw prospect under mediocre or worse coaching at every level of football he has played before the NFL. This kid really responds to better coaching too, just look at the huge strides he made during draft process with Jordan last year and how much he elevated his game in the 4 weeks sitting while hurt. Additionally, he has never played with any real talent in college or the NFL. HIs WR's in college were awful and let him down all the time. His OL was awful too. Every time that team was on the field against a decent school they were grossly out matched talent wise. Steve Young looked terrible for the Bucs until he got to the 49ers and became a top 10 (IMO top 5) all time great QB. It can not be overlooked the lack of personnel around him. QB is important, but football is a team sport and pretty hard for a QB to overcome no weapons and no pass protection. The inaccuracy thing is a media narrative that is strictly rooted in stat sheet checking that no one can get away from now. Yet, on the field, this kids accuracy this year was no where near as bad as it was made out to be. His final comp % is misleading and is loaded with drops, great passes overturned by penalty, and receiver miscommunications. And it was clear just how much KB starting was holding Allen back as he really found his groove even more once they cut him. So for me, I don't see an accuracy issue outside of the typical things that come with any rookie QB. This kid is no longer going to have the accuracy knock on him after the 2019 season once people see how well he plays with actual talent around him. Better pass protection, better targets and improved run game around him is going to be night and day. Thats my opinion at least, but I am supremely confident in that opinion. Edited February 25, 2019 by Alphadawg7 2 2
White Linen Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Wasnt so much comparing arm strength as I was style of play. Downfield threat, very dangerous runner. But yes, Elway is also a good comparison, but Young was a better runner than Elway. I was also comparing style of play and Elway was just a tick behind Young as a runner. I think when you add in the fact Allen can turn that head around and sling it - for that reason he reminds me more of an Elway type of QB. Young was a more touch and accuracy passer that made him effect. Elway seemed to throw everything hard and the receivers had to get used to that. 1
Ol Dirty B Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said: Fair point ODB. I think its likely with the cap space and draft picks we will add to the roster in those areas and not subtract. I can't imagine the O-line or WR groups being worse than they were last year. I am so glad Benjamin is gone. In all my years of being a Bills fan, I have never hated a Bills player until Kelvin Benjamin. I agree, KB was one of the most frustrating players to ever watch. I hope you're right, and I hope they've learned from past mistakes in not really addressing concerns at position groups. 1
MJS Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: For comparison fun: Lamar Jackson: Ceiling: Michael Vick. Josh Allen: Ceiling: Steve Young. I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young. I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was. Steve Young was always pretty accurate though.
Just Joshin' Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said: 3500ish passing and 5/600 rushing would be ideal 3500 passing as the min, agree on the rush total.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: For comparison fun: Lamar Jackson: Ceiling: Michael Vick. Josh Allen: Ceiling: Steve Young. I keep saying that the QB Allen most compares to IMO is Steve Young. I think he is going to be a feared passer and a feared scrambler just like Young was. And for the non racist comparison.... Allen at this point is most comparable to Roethlisberger, Steve McNair, Randall Cunningham, and Daunte Culpepper. All big strong armed guys that ran early in thier careers. Jackson’s ceiling might be as high as Tarkenton or Staubach both of which had 57% career completion percentages(in a far different era I will give you). Jackson is a far better thrower than Vick but without the cannon Vick had. And at this point in his career is more like Elway with less of an arm. 1
CincyBillsFan Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Sherlock Holmes said: I'm talking about 5500+ yards passing throwing for 56 Tds and 2200 yards rushing with 28 rushing tds. Sending that pigskin to the moon along the way? That would be a damn fine season! 1
Rc2catch Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 Those stats sound like 5-11 for the bills. That’s not what we want. If Allen is rushing for 1000 yards it means we have no run game, and the o line still sucks bad and he’s running for his life. We want 4,000 passing and like 300-350 rushing. Also as others mentioned he’s not going to stay very healthy running for 1,000 1
klos63 Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: I'm also optimistic that this will be Allen's breakout year. I'm thinking 3600 yards passing and 800 yards rushing. Figure on 25 - 30 passing TD's & 10 - 15 rushing TD's. I suspect that Allen & Jackson are the start of an NFL trend where a QB's run game is a bigger part of the offense. And it won't all be read option plays - there will be a lot of diversity in HOW teams utilize their running QB. In the case of Jackson the Ravens will employ designed runs as the focus of their offense. The Bills will rely more on classic QB scrambles to generate chunk rushing yards by Allen. Either way a running QB will increasingly be a significant part of a teams offense. In the case of the Bills I look for Allen's rushing TD's to be as high as 15 as he is probably the best at the QB sneak for those short yardage TD's and his running ability will be deadly in the Bills red zone offense next year. As for injury's, who knows. That's the big bugaboo in all this. But I think Allen can rush for 50 yards a game, most of which will be critical yardage, AND stay healthy over the course of a season. Only time will tell if my optimism is warranted. Those are MVP stats. 10-15 rushing TD's is a lot for a top flight RB, let alone a QB. I'm excited to see him play this coming season, but that's seems a little out there.
CincyBillsFan Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, klos63 said: Those are MVP stats. 10-15 rushing TD's is a lot for a top flight RB, let alone a QB. I'm excited to see him play this coming season, but that's seems a little out there. Not really. Looking just at my guess for his passing stats: 25 - 30 TD's would have placed Allen somewhere between #9 - #13 among 2018 QB's and 3600 yards would have placed him at #18 among 2018 QB's. Solid, but hardly MVP passing stats. And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable. Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line. I just think that on passing plays the Bills 3rd check down will be Allen running with the ball. This will make the offense very dangerous, especially in the red zone. So while my guess at Allen's production in 2019 is optimistic it's also very doable.
Patrick Duffy Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 6 hours ago, Tatonka68 said: I think their is a chance Allen could pass for over 3000 yards and rush for 1000 yards and score a combined 38 TDS. What do you think? !,000 yds rushing LOL, In no way do I want my QB running that dam much. He will have a much larger percentage to get hurt and I would not think he would last many years with that much rushing. I'm fine with him escaping pressure and taking off when he has to and I get it, he has wheels and is exciting, but for that many yards I'd have to assume that would put his season and career in jeopardy. Put that arm to good use and do what you can to sure up the Oline and hope for anywhere between 3000-5000 yds passing.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 Like someone else pointed out, if Allen is running that much then the o-line will be a mess, his supporting cast not much improved and his progression as a QB will have failed. 300-350 yards would be the sweet spot. Enough of a running threat to earn some first downs when the plays break down. The most important thing is not yards it is turnovers and then TDs. I don't care if he ever breaks 300 yards passing if he has 30 TD and 10 picks.
klos63 Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said: Not really. Looking just at my guess for his passing stats: 25 - 30 TD's would have placed Allen somewhere between #9 - #13 among 2018 QB's and 3600 yards would have placed him at #18 among 2018 QB's. Solid, but hardly MVP passing stats. And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable. Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line. I just think that on passing plays the Bills 3rd check down will be Allen running with the ball. This will make the offense very dangerous, especially in the red zone. So while my guess at Allen's production in 2019 is optimistic it's also very doable. combine that with 800 yards rushing and 15 more TD's and he's in the MVP discussion.
EricScott Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 (edited) I completely agree with White Linen; out of all the QB's I've ever seen, Allen most closely resembles John Elway. Except that so far, Allen is the more accurate of the two, and I believe will prove to be the more accurate of the two going forward. Don't believe me? Elway's completion percentage his rookie year was 47.5%. Look it up. In fact, Elway didn't get over the 60% mark until his eleventh year in the league, and he only surpassed it two other times! But like Allen he was very mobile in his younger years and really dangerous out of the pocket extending plays. I remember seeing Elway in his rookie year and thinking he looked extremely raw as a passer, much more so than Allen. Edited February 25, 2019 by EricScott 1
Ethan in Cleveland Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, EricScott said: I completely agree with White Linen; out of all the QB's I've ever seen, Allen most closely resembles John Elway. Except that so far, Allen is the more accurate of the two, and I believe will prove to be the more accurate of the two going forward. Don't believe me? Elway's completion percentage his rookie year was 47.5%. Look it up. In fact, Elway didn't get over the 60% mark until his eleventh year in the league, and he only surpassed it two other times! But like Allen he was very mobile in his younger years and really dangerous out of the pocket extending plays. I remember seeing Elway in his rookie year and thinking he looked extremely raw as a passer, much more so than Allen. Good post. Different eras so the comp percentage comparison is hard to truly evaluate. 1983 college QB play was not what it is today. But the Elway comparison is valid.
Dr.Sack Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 4,000 yards passing and 0 rushing yards would be ideal, but 3,000 to 1,000 is more likely given what we’ve seen so far.
LABILLBACKER Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 Not going to make any bold stat predictions until I see what OL/WR/TE we surround him with. Get 2 solid FA Olineman plus Metcalf in the 1st. Trade up in the top of the 2nd for Hockenson and get an injured Hollywood Brown in the 4th, then you'll have my undivided attention!
Turk71 Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said: And I agree that scoring 10 - 15 TD's on the ground would be special but he scored 8 this year in about 11 full games so 10 seems very doable. Sure 15 would be a reach but given how effectively Allen ran the QB sneak he'll be called on to convert most of the TD's when the Bills are inside the 1 yard line. As well he should from the 1 or closer. One of the dumbest, most frustrating plays for me to watch is handing the ball off 5 or 6 yds deep from the 1 and getting stuffed in the backfield. I would put 2 huge backup linemen in the backfield right behind the qb and push him in.? 1
formerlyofCtown Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 11 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: Based on what? I'm expecting them to attempt to address it, but we have no reason at all at this point to believe it will be better. Everyone was talking about WR for a year now, and what did they do to address that last year? It wont be too difficult to get better on the Oline.
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