Conditional Picks - The Pats

[gonzo1105]

With only 6 FA(none of which are in high demand) and the hope the Bills sign multiple Free Agents this off-season, don’t expect any next year either. Clay doesn’t count for us since we released him. 

[whatdrought]

I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. 

 

I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. 

[Koko78]

2 minutes ago, QCity said:

There's nothing ridiculous or complex about it. The value it's based on is the amount that player signs for. I've been discussing this on this forum for a decade, but it typically draws blank stares and for some reason is equated to particle physics.

 

You should probably leave the string theory and wormhole chapters out of your compensatory pick dissertation then.

 

It's all witchcraft and magic!

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. 

 

I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. 

 

The reason why they can do this has more to do with the fact that Brady and Belichick can cover up weaknesses because their two of the best all time. 

 

Get used to it the Pats are gonna be in line for two more 3rd rounders most likely next near with Trent Brown and Trey Flowers as FAs

[plenzmd1]

11 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

 

There's nothing ridiculous or complex about it. The value it's based on is the amount that player signs for. I've been discussing this on this forum for a decade, but it typically draws blank stares and for some reason is equated to particle physics.

 

 

 

 

Thats is part of the equation, but not the whole equation as I understand it. If that was the case, we would know by start of the season pretty much what teams would get what. Playing time, stats , all kind of things are computed in i believe.

 

First thing I found

 

Quote

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors.

 

Edited February 22, 2019 by plenzmd1

[gonzo1105]

7 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Thats is part of the equation, but not the whole equation as I understand it. If that was the case, we would know by start of the season pretty much what teams would get what. Playing time, stats , all kind of things are computed in i believe.

 

First thing I found

 

 

 

Its not based on awards or playing time, every year people bring this up and it’s not true if you look at the history of comp picks 

 

The Rams got 2 3rd round picks solely because they had a net lose in FAs and Trumaine Johnson(who was terrible this year) signed a contract with an AAV of 14.5 million a season and Sammy Watkins ( who was average) to over 15 mill AAV. It’s based on Players lost vs players gained. Then based on AAV and comparing and crossing out equal salaries. 

[Albany,n.y.]

The best use of a comp pick of all time: Pick 199 of the 2000 NFL draft.  

[Steve Billieve]

27 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I forgot about Soldier and Butler, it makes more sense now. The problem with the comp picks is that the Patriots always let players go, and teams always sign them to huge contracts because their patriots background gives teams hard-ons. If teams stop overpaying for ***** players from the Patriots, this would stop happening. 

 

I will say though, it is really quite ridiculous that the NFL keeps the formula locked down.. What's the point of that? Do teams not know and they don't want teams messing with the system? Or is it just kept from the public? It's hard to claim parity and equal playing field with such secrets-however small. 

My guess is the system is somewhat subjective/arbitrary since like players are a scratch.  They are probably just looking to avoid complaints/gaming of the system.  If there is a set published formula sophisticated operations would then be looking to sign players in a such a way as to not give other teams higher picks etc.  It seems equally plausible that there's a competition committee that determines "like" players and they don't want them over scrutinized/criticized. 

[plenzmd1]

33 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Its not based on awards or playing time, every year people bring this up and it’s not true if you look at the history of comp picks 

 

The Rams got 2 3rd round picks solely because they had a net lose in FAs and Trumaine Johnson(who was terrible this year) signed a contract with an AAV of 14.5 million a season and Sammy Watkins ( who was average) to over 15 mill AAV. It’s based on Players lost vs players gained. Then based on AAV and comparing and crossing out equal salaries. 

That is the majority yes, but there is a reason it is called a "formula" and no one knows for certain what teams will be awarded what picks. If it was striclt a net contract value thing, these things would be known "with certainty" ...and thats not the case

[gonzo1105]

10 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

That is the majority yes, but there is a reason it is called a "formula" and no one knows for certain what teams will be awarded what picks. If it was striclt a net contract value thing, these things would be known "with certainty" ...and thats not the case

 

I pretty well explained earlier quite easily how the Patriots and Rams accrued their pics pretty accurately without secrecy. Go to overthecap.com they do a heck of a job as well and are like 98% accurate and there is zero mention of playing time or awards as part of the “super secret formula”

Edited February 22, 2019 by gonzo1105

[plenzmd1]

Just now, gonzo1105 said:

 

I pretty well explained earlier quite easily how the Patriots and Jets accrued their pics pretty accurately without secrecy. Go to overthecap.com they do a heck of a job as well and are like 98% accurate and there is zero mention of playing time or awards as part of the “super secret formula”

as i said, and agree, it is the majority of the formula, but there are other things involved. It is not 100%

[Rc2catch]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Its very easy actually. The hidden magic formula is really Players gained vs players Lost. If you have more players lost then gained you qualify for a compensatory pick. Then they take the Average Annual Salary Of the players you gained and the players you lost and match them as equally as possible.  

 

To have a player qualify thy need to meet a certain salary threshold as well. Players signed that were cut from other teams do not count in the players gained column

 

For Example: 

Buffalo lost:

Seantrel Henderson 

Preston Brown

E.J Gaines

Joe Webb

 

Buffalo gained:

Murphy

Lotelelei

Stanford

McCarron

Bodine

Bush

 

6 gained 4 lost = no picks

 

Now the Patriots were a question

Patriots lost:

Nate Solder

Malcolm Butler

Danny Amendola

Dion Lewis

Joe Bademosi

Cameron Fleming

 

Patriots Gained:

Adrian Clayborn 

Jeremy Hill

 

Patriots lost 6 Gained 2= 4 possible comp picks

 

Solder AAV is over 15 

Butler AAV is over 12

Amendola is almost 6

Lewis almost 5

Bademost 3.1

Fleming 2.5

 

Clayborn is 5 AAV

Hill was 1.3

 

So now match em up. 

Lewis and Clayborn cancel each other and Hill and Fleming cancel each other

 

This leaves Solder= 3rd round, Butler 3rd round,  Amendola 6th round, Bademosi 7th round based on their AAV

Makes much more sense now. I didn’t realize they had that many leave in free agency. Forgot about Lewis and butler completely. 

[Augie]

Good, that’s just more to take away! 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

With the Redskins getting a 3rd, 5th and 7th round compensatory picks it makes it a greater possibility that they may Ent to move up and draft their QB of the future.

 

If you were the Bills GM, would you move from 9 to 14 and take both 3rd round picks?

 

Yes if that was the best deal.  No one we want will be drafted from 10 to 14.  So take the 2 thirds if that offer is only offer and move to 15.  We would have 3 picks in 3rd round and 2 in 4th round.  Package a couple of those up and get back into 2nd round or maybe even trade our 2nd with one of those 3rds to get back into the first round.  

[PromoTheRobot]

Anyone post this yet?

 

https://ublawsportsforum.com/2018/03/13/brandon-beane-and-the-nfls-compensatory-pick-formula/

 

 

Edited February 22, 2019 by PromoTheRobot

[RPbillsfan]

32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yes if that was the best deal.  No one we want will be drafted from 10 to 14.  So take the 2 thirds if that offer is only offer and move to 15.  We would have 3 picks in 3rd round and 2 in 4th round.  Package a couple of those up and get back into 2nd round or maybe even trade our 2nd with one of those 3rds to get back into the first round.  

That's exactly what I was thinking.  So much will depend on the combine and then the Pro Days.  But I think if Haskins and either Lock or Murray is taken by the time our pick comes up, the Redskins will want to jump in front of Miami to get one of the three.  Then with three third we could deal 2, get a 2ns 2 and end up with a 1st, 2 2nds, a third and two in the 4th and 5th, a 6th and a pair in the 7th.

 

Lots of possibilities

[Bills Fan of St Augustine]

4 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

With the Redskins getting a 3rd, 5th and 7th round compensatory picks it makes it a greater possibility that they may Ent to move up and draft their QB of the future.

 

If you were the Bills GM, would you move from 9 to 14 and take both 3rd round picks?

Seems like a fair deal to me. I'd do it!

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

You can’t keep rewarding the top teams and expect parity

 

However you can keep not trying to understand the rules in order to pretend it’s unfair 

[Clemfield2622]

The formula isn't a secret, people just can't understand it no matter how plainly it is spelled out to them.

 

Comp picks are garbage and should be done away with. Teams absolutely know to manipulate the system.

 

In a league with a cap, comp picks should not exist. These teams did not lose these players, they let them go.

 

 

[offyourocker]

How can the Rams be getting picks.  They signed so many free agents last year