McBeane Draft Tendencies?

[CaptnCoke11]

7 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

He’s completely ignorant of the Williams’s quota he’s failed miserably to maintain. 

I think that’s getting a bit old 

[Ronin]

17 minutes ago, noacls said:

Jones and Allen did not go to FCS  schools. Wyoming and ECU are FBS programs. 

However I do agree  that JuJu should have been pick. 

 

That would be correct, I was confusing power-5 with FCS.  Thanks for the catch.  

 

Point-being, swap out P-5 with FCS then.  aka small football schools.  

 

Also, on that note they need for someone in their draft office to sit down and actually go thru why a player was successful" in college, particularly if they put up gawdy numbers as Jones did against a second-rate slate of teams.  If they had done that, as I did, they'd have seen that he did it in a major spread offense, often 5 receivers, typically playing in garbage time.  That's hardly a good indicator.  

 

They'd also have seen that Hardy, I think Justin, also from EC who put up more prolific numbers over more than merely one season there, with more prototypical physical dimensions for WR in the NFL, and playing with a very good QB in Matt Ryan, hasn't done much at the NFL level.  If nothing else that should have been a flag re: Jones.  Again, this is what scouts should be getting paid for, or someone with analytical abilities at OBD.  Heck, even a part-time person from January thru April would do it.  So why isn't it getting done?  If it is, why wasn't it heeded?  

 

Allen had his own set of concerns including horrific play, as in worse than just about every QB from that same draft, against P-5 competition.  No need for further comment, he's here now, but gone unbeknownst is that his short-medium passing game is even worse here than it was in college.  He's going to have to make an enormous leap this season in that way.  

 

Deep balls and running are far from the basis of franchise QBs, eh.  They may be "exciting" but clearly they didn't result in points or winning.  

 

It's always a flag to me when coaches or GMs, or both in this case, get caught up in the "strong arm" thing, which I consider to be of a "kid in a candy shop" thing.  No franchise much less top-10 QB has huge deficits in the short-medium game.  

 

Here's the thing, unless a "strong armed" QB is lofting TDs from outside the red zone with regularity, the vast majority of scoring is done from within the red zone where Allen has a DFL 4 TDs this season, two of which were in that last Miami game as were a third of his total passing TDs this season.  This isn't a good thing.  

 

Once a QB hits the red zone there's no need for a strong-arm anymore.  I always have to raise an eyebrow when coaches/GMs don't seem to understand that most simplistic and fundamental of concepts.  ... or do they understand it but just ignore it?  they can pick their poison on that one, but when one makes a risky decision as such, one's future necessarily hangs in the balance.  

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[OldTimer1960]

I think they weigh intelligence, work ethic and football desire heavily.  I like that.

[IgotBILLStopay]

9 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Seeing if anyone has picked up on any of this regimes draft tendencies? It’s difficult because the first year was run by McDermott but scouted by Whaley’s group. This past year was then drafted by Beane/McDermott and their scouting staffs. 

 

I think one thing I’ve noticed that’s carried through both seasons is the regimes preference for seniors, or at least guys who are senior bowl eligible players. The entire 2017 class was seniors, but was that just a case of McDermott trying to hedge his bets and take the most proven commodities he could find, with low bust potential?

 

Furthering this theory, besides Edmunds, a true physical freak, and one who still played 3 years of college football, even though he was drafted at age 19, the Bills took all seniors last year as well... Allen and Phillips still has eligibility, but we’re technically graduated. 

 

I thinj this provides a good look at how they'll go about business, i.e. the first round pick will just be best player available. After that they’ll stick to seniors as much as they can. 

 

I could see them going for a guy like Metcalf with 9th overall, or some other physically imposing athlete. And then in the rest of the draft look for guys who who are talented but proven to supplement that pick and help to provide depth throughout the roster. 

 

Metcalf does remind me a lot of Edmunds.

 

1. Both positions of great need

 

2. Both athletic freaks (obviously depends on Metcalf’s combine, but I expect him to blow up and really help himself).

 

3. Both have no off-field issues

 

4. Both come from major football families (can add Zay Jones to this one as well). Edmunds has two brothers in the league and s father who was a pro bowler. Metcalf has a father, uncle and grandfather who combined for 27years in the NFL. I think they may view it as something helpful for younger players coming into the league to have someone that close that has had the experience.

 

- lastly as a note, I see Dalton Risner as this years version of their Harrison Phillips. He’ll slip a bit because he’ll be 24 at the start of the season. But he’ll cone in and be a day 1 starter and the type of guy fans here will love just like Phillips. 

 

 

First, later rounds of the NFL draft usually tend to be senior heavy. If an underclassmen is a borderline late round draft pick, he is usually advised to stay one more year in College (unless there are discipline or academic issues). So one should typically look for the first few rounds to assess if a draft is really senior heavy.

 

Second, the primary reason for a senior heavy draft 2 years ago is that the Bills sent a big contingent to scout the Senior Bowl (McD had just been hired that January - so he was still catching up with scouting). The three picked in the first 3 rounds were Tre, Zay and Dawkins - who all practiced well during Senior Bowl week. In other words a senior heavy draft was out of necessity (and Beane was not involved)

 

Third is last years experience with Allen, Edmunds and Phillips. Allen was a QB and one of the top 4 consensus players - With two off the board, I think the fact that he was a Senior was not particularly relevant in his being picked. Edmunds, of course is an underclassman. Phillips actually had a year more of eligibility remaining - so technically though he practiced at the Senior Bowl - he was a junior. So one senior out of three is probably par for the course in the first 3 rounds and that too, being a QB, is not because of any Senior bias.

 

Based on the above, I am not sure there is a strong senior bias in McBeane drafting. That said, the one thing that we can conclude is that the Bills do send a big contingent to the Senior Bowl game and treat it as important. So they have done the homework on Risner / Sweat / Deebo for sure.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'll disagree that the first year was run by Whaley's cronies.  In fact, they got rid of a few before the draft even.  

 

But it was McD's personal choice for WRs coach, forget his name, a former EC coach, that was high on Zay Jones when the obvious pick, even then, was Smith-Shuster, particularly over an FCS candidate like Jones.  So not letting them off-the-hook for that one so easily.  

 

One minor trend is their lack of concern over going "small school," again, FCS in this case, with two enormously risky picks on Jones & Allen, both times in very critical spots.  Jones clearly hasn't stepped up to anywhere even remotely approaching what's expected from a 37th overall pick and 4th overall WR taken.  Point-of-note, five WRs after Jones have logged more yards, significantly in four of the five cases.  

 

And if you don't think that Peterman was McBeane's pick, well, LMAO.  

 

Otherwise, I see as a trend McD leaning on his experience as a DC over emphasizing, or should we say neglecting, the offense.  WR has been critical and yet Jones has flopped and the only others they've taken were late day-3 last year.  Other than that the only offensive players have been the two Gs, Dawkins and then Teller, also on day-3 this past draft.  

 

He really can't afford to tinker with more defense at this point, and given that they're going to sink or swim on Allen.  So it's in their best interests as HC and GM and their futures as such, to use all three day-1 & 2 picks on offense, presumably a WR, an OL, and what, another OL, TE, another WR?  

 

They literally have needs at every offensive position.  We cannot argue that they're "set" anywhere.  Foster isn't a proven starting WR although looking good for a handful of games.  We'll see how things change when DCs plan for him.  Otherwise we need capable WRs, a TE, every OL spot could stand an upgrade, and of course there's a need for RB too.  That's a lot to overcome in a season, two tops.  They won't have more to produce another playoff appearance.  Again, not sure that "making the playoffs" last season was a good thing for them in their long-term interests.  

 

They've been fortunate with several late-round picks but that's hardly a trade-off for a spotty history in rounds 1-3 and it suggests just that, fortune/luck as opposed to knowledge, otherwise they'd have done better in those 1-3 rounds.  

 

There are so many needs and IMO not enough time for them to rebuild the O as such, particularly as key players (Hughes & Lorax) diminish in play on the D side due to age.  Remember, over half our paltry sack total came from Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes.  Also not mentioned is that their abject failure to be able to adequately assess the O.  Anyone should have known that for one reason or another great things are typically not expected from a 30-year old RB no matter how good he's been.  Sure, he could beat the odds, but that's a long-shot bet and frankly it didn't work out.  The better thing to have done would have been to trade Shady last year as I said repeatedly and move on.  Instead we get nothing, either this season from him or going forward.  But the point is that to rely on things like that demonstrates a lack of awareness of tried and true NFL tenets if you will and frankly, of  NFL history in general.  That's one thing I always look for in a coach.  

 

So far they haven't proven an ability to improve the offense.  The one thing that should be clear to the world is that if Allen doesn't make a huge stride in his short-medium game then they won't be long for Buffalo.  I don't see how they're going to do that with the current offensive (double entendre there) roster.  

 

I'm just not sure that it's possible to build it as such, essentially from the ground up, so quickly.  I guess we'll find out, but again, there's nothing on record suggesting that they know how to do it, here, Carolina, anywhere.  More picks like their 2nd rounds of Jones and 3rd of Dawkins aren't going to cut it.  

 

And if I were them I'd avoid any FCS school period on days 1 & 2, where they only have three picks, one each in the first three rounds.  

 

 

The small school thing is likely a way to gain value on players that fit their physical and intellectual prototypes. If we’re honest we have to admit that a guy with Zay’s physical makeup doing what Zay did in the SEC is a top 10-15 pick. I think they’re willing to take shots on guys like this in the first 2-3 rounds and at the end of the draft. It’s a small sample size, but they also seem to go high floor in the middle rounds. That small school trend will likely continue. They seem to have faith in their ability to coach and develop these kids. 

 

Also, keep in mind their idea of prototype may not fit our usual expectations. Corner is a good example of this. They could be targeting guys that have size, agility, and intelligence to play zone over size speed man guys. They might have a guy like Lonnie Johnson (UK) rated a lot higher than we think. 

[KOKBILLS]

10 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Seeing if anyone has picked up on any of this regimes draft tendencies? It’s difficult because the first year was run by McDermott but scouted by Whaley’s group. This past year was then drafted by Beane/McDermott and their scouting staffs. 

 

I think one thing I’ve noticed that’s carried through both seasons is the regimes preference for seniors, or at least guys who are senior bowl eligible players. The entire 2017 class was seniors, but was that just a case of McDermott trying to hedge his bets and take the most proven commodities he could find, with low bust potential?

 

Furthering this theory, besides Edmunds, a true physical freak, and one who still played 3 years of college football, even though he was drafted at age 19, the Bills took all seniors last year as well... Allen and Phillips still has eligibility, but we’re technically graduated. 

 

I thinj this provides a good look at how they'll go about business, i.e. the first round pick will just be best player available. After that they’ll stick to seniors as much as they can. 

 

I could see them going for a guy like Metcalf with 9th overall, or some other physically imposing athlete. And then in the rest of the draft look for guys who who are talented but proven to supplement that pick and help to provide depth throughout the roster. 

 

Metcalf does remind me a lot of Edmunds.

 

1. Both positions of great need

 

2. Both athletic freaks (obviously depends on Metcalf’s combine, but I expect him to blow up and really help himself).

 

3. Both have no off-field issues

 

4. Both come from major football families (can add Zay Jones to this one as well). Edmunds has two brothers in the league and s father who was a pro bowler. Metcalf has a father, uncle and grandfather who combined for 27years in the NFL. I think they may view it as something helpful for younger players coming into the league to have someone that close that has had the experience.

 

- lastly as a note, I see Dalton Risner as this years version of their Harrison Phillips. He’ll slip a bit because he’ll be 24 at the start of the season. But he’ll cone in and be a day 1 starter and the type of guy fans here will love just like Phillips. 

 

 

This is basically the same theory I asked Joe Marino to talk about this coming Tues on the Locked On Bill Podcast...

 

https://twitter.com/LockedOnBills/status/1096037556913954817

 

It's why I think Metcalf will be the pick at #9 assuming his workout/medicals all come out fine...

 

There is a TON in common with the type-prospects Allen/Edmunds/and Metcalf are...?

 

 

[White Linen]

5 hours ago, cage said:

 

To that point have they made a 1st or 2nd round pick in the past two drafts that didn't involve a move up or down?  T. White (down), Z. Jones (up), Dawkins (up), Allen (up), Edmunds (up)... all of them 

 

They haven't made a 1st and/or 2nd round pick in the past two drafts.  

[BillsSB2020]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The two things I perceive is that Beane seems to have a preference for high-potential, high-risk players (Allen, Edmunds) over higher floor, lower ceiling guys AND that he is not afraid to move around in the draft.

DK Metcalf.

1 hour ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

This is basically the same theory I asked Joe Marino to talk about this coming Tues on the Locked On Bill Podcast...

 

https://twitter.com/LockedOnBills/status/1096037556913954817

 

It's why I think Metcalf will be the pick at #9 assuming his workout/medicals all come out fine...

 

There is a TON in common with the type-prospects Allen/Edmunds/and Metcalf are...?

 

 

Beat me to it!

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I think that’s getting a bit old 

 

Way old like captain n coke lame or just zima and Jolley ranchers? 

[Dkollidas]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Allen and Edmunds were Juniors who declared.

juss sayin’..

Yes, that’s why I’m saying I think 1st Round elite atheletes might be where they stray away, by the time you get to the 2nd round and beyond, I think you can basically find your flavor out of a group of similarly rated players.

 

and yes, Allen technically has another year of eligibility, but he had graduated and was able to participate in the senior bowl.

[folz]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'll disagree that the first year was run by Whaley's cronies.  In fact, they got rid of a few before the draft even.  

 

But it was McD's personal choice for WRs coach, forget his name, a former EC coach, that was high on Zay Jones when the obvious pick, even then, was Smith-Shuster, particularly over an FCS candidate like Jones.  So not letting them off-the-hook for that one so easily.  

 

One minor trend is their lack of concern over going "small school," again, FCS in this case, with two enormously risky picks on Jones & Allen, both times in very critical spots.  Jones clearly hasn't stepped up to anywhere even remotely approaching what's expected from a 37th overall pick and 4th overall WR taken.  Point-of-note, five WRs after Jones have logged more yards, significantly in four of the five cases.  

 

And if you don't think that Peterman was McBeane's pick, well, LMAO.  

 

Otherwise, I see as a trend McD leaning on his experience as a DC over emphasizing, or should we say neglecting, the offense.  WR has been critical and yet Jones has flopped and the only others they've taken were late day-3 last year.  Other than that the only offensive players have been the two Gs, Dawkins and then Teller, also on day-3 this past draft.  

 

He really can't afford to tinker with more defense at this point, and given that they're going to sink or swim on Allen.  So it's in their best interests as HC and GM and their futures as such, to use all three day-1 & 2 picks on offense, presumably a WR, an OL, and what, another OL, TE, another WR?  

 

They literally have needs at every offensive position.  We cannot argue that they're "set" anywhere.  Foster isn't a proven starting WR although looking good for a handful of games.  We'll see how things change when DCs plan for him.  Otherwise we need capable WRs, a TE, every OL spot could stand an upgrade, and of course there's a need for RB too.  That's a lot to overcome in a season, two tops.  They won't have more to produce another playoff appearance.  Again, not sure that "making the playoffs" last season was a good thing for them in their long-term interests.  

 

They've been fortunate with several late-round picks but that's hardly a trade-off for a spotty history in rounds 1-3 and it suggests just that, fortune/luck as opposed to knowledge, otherwise they'd have done better in those 1-3 rounds.  

 

There are so many needs and IMO not enough time for them to rebuild the O as such, particularly as key players (Hughes & Lorax) diminish in play on the D side due to age.  Remember, over half our paltry sack total came from Kyle, Lorax, and Hughes.  Also not mentioned is that their abject failure to be able to adequately assess the O.  Anyone should have known that for one reason or another great things are typically not expected from a 30-year old RB no matter how good he's been.  Sure, he could beat the odds, but that's a long-shot bet and frankly it didn't work out.  The better thing to have done would have been to trade Shady last year as I said repeatedly and move on.  Instead we get nothing, either this season from him or going forward.  But the point is that to rely on things like that demonstrates a lack of awareness of tried and true NFL tenets if you will and frankly, of  NFL history in general.  That's one thing I always look for in a coach.  

 

So far they haven't proven an ability to improve the offense.  The one thing that should be clear to the world is that if Allen doesn't make a huge stride in his short-medium game then they won't be long for Buffalo.  I don't see how they're going to do that with the current offensive (double entendre there) roster.  

 

I'm just not sure that it's possible to build it as such, essentially from the ground up, so quickly.  I guess we'll find out, but again, there's nothing on record suggesting that they know how to do it, here, Carolina, anywhere.  More picks like their 2nd rounds of Jones and 3rd of Dawkins aren't going to cut it.  

 

And if I were them I'd avoid any FCS school period on days 1 & 2, where they only have three picks, one each in the first three rounds.  

 

 

 

I agree with the first bold statement, that the first draft was McDermott's draft (not Whaley's), although he was relying on Whaley's team's scouting info, and that is probably why, as another poster stated, he may have gone with guys from the senior bowl because they were players that he and his coaches actually got to see/interview/scout themselves.

 

I would just point out with the 2nd bolded statement that I think you mean McDermott, not McBeane. I agree that Peterman was probably McDermott's pick, but obviously Beane didn't have anything to do with it. I assume that was just a typo on your part.

 

But after that, your post seems to go off the rails and seems to be a bit short-sighted in my opinion.

 

At best, this was going to be 3 year rebuild (maybe 4 years since Beane wasn't here the first season). A brand new team doesn't magically appear, it has to be built. In years one and two, they assessed the team they had, built their defense, got their QB,  and purged the salary cap (and the team of players that weren't a fit, either scheme-wise or culture-wise). This offseason is obviously the year to build the offense. It is part of the plan. Why would a defensive coach without a QB start building the offense first? It was a much better plan to build the D (to try and stay somewhat competitive), get your QB,  and then build the O around that QB (players that will compliment him once you know his strengths and weaknesses, etc.). You make it sound like they have blown all of these 1st to 3rd round picks on offensive players that have busted, but your only examples are Zay Jones and Dawkins (both of which were McDermott picks, not Beane picks btw). But, neither of whom I would call a bust yet. It's not like they have thrown all of these assets at the offense and failed miserably. Instead, they have been trying patch-work it together with temporary players while they dealt with other issues (because they didn't have the capital to fix everything in the first two years). And now this offseason is to rebuild the offense. To claim they have already failed at something they haven't really been able to attack yet seems foolish. You can complain about the trade for Benjamin, but pretty much everyone else was a stop-gap player, outside of draft picks.

 

Now, Dawkins had a very good rookie year and then a rougher sophomore year. But two things about that, first, he has admitted that he kind of thought he arrived and took his foot off the gas a bit, but has owned up to that and is determined to turn it around. A lot of players have that sophomore slump for similar reasons. Plus you have to remember that Ritchie wasn't next to him this year. The offensive line is so dependent on each other, if you have someone next to you not playing well, your play appears to go down as well. Happens all the time.

 

Way too many people ignore how big a blow losing Eric and Ritchie was to last year's team. With all of the dead money and a bad draft for O-linemen, the team just couldn't adequately fix that problem. Which also plays into the year that Shady had. Shady's problem wasn't that he suddenly got old, it's that he was met 2 yards in the backfield on most of his runs.

 

And sure, I'd rather have Smith-Shuster than Zay and to this point Zay has not lived up to his draft status yet, but he's shown improvement and he's heading into his third year, which for many WRs is the breakout year. Let's at least give him one more season before labeling him a total bust.

 

Let's see about this spotty history of 1st to 3rd round draft picks:

2017: Tre White, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins 

2018: Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips

 

So, what? You're calling Jones and Dawkins definite busts and you don't expect Josh to be the guy? Seems a little too early to be making those determinations. And you talk about holes to fill and other players getting older, so there will be more holes to fill. Well, why do you think they drafted Harrison last year, because they knew Kyle wouldn't be around long. Seems like they are planning ahead. You again, make it seem like they have no plan, no foresight, and their good picks are lucky, and any bad pick/bad move  was obvious to everyone in the NFL except for these dopes. You may not like or have confidence in McBeane, but the picture you are painting of them is far from the truth. The way you tell it, they should be fired tomorrow and never work in the NFL again because they are so incompetent.

 

It seems that you are taking a 6-10 season in the 2nd year of a total organizational and team rebuild and acting like that is the final product with no more improvements to come. Their plans may or may not eventually work, but I think you have to at least let it play out before making such sweeping conclusions. If I'm hired by a big company to fix their business and I tell them it will take me 4 years to clean house, change attitudes, implement new plans, hire new staff, etc. and then they fire me after two years because things aren't fixed yet, did I fail or was the company just too impatient to wait for the results they desired?  Sometimes you have to take a step back in order to go forward, rather than just constantly tread water.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 hours ago, MJS said:

Beane has only had one draft. It takes a minimum of 3 to establish a pattern. McDermott has been involved in 2. Still not enough to establish tendencies, plus he's not the GM.

 

...great call bud.....and he has a solid 18+ months together with his "Gang of 17+" staff, many of which are NFL level personnel execs who have served elsewhere...Pegula spared NO expense (maybe $5+ mil payroll)......with 10 picks and FA $$$, this could be one of THE most pivotal years in the last decade+ for this club or perhaps back to the Polian era.....so stay tuned......got my Depends, Bourbon and popcorn ready.....

Edited February 17, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[HansLanda]

At this point we all just need to hope they have their board setup 'correctly' with the proper values on each NCAA'er...Beane seems to let on he likes going BPA.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Reach for need and blow large amounts of draft capital because they covet specific players?

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, BillsSB2020 said:

 

Beat me to it!

 

Great minds think alike... ?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Well in his press conference he said he doesn't like to draft for need but the entire 2018 draft was need based.  Traded away multiple picks/player to get QB. Did the same to get a MLB only to have DROY drafted in the second round.  

Given the state of the OL, WR group, and only one consistent pass rusher, my guess is he does the same this year and drafts for need.  Which I don;t have an issue with.  Just don't waste picks targeting a certain player.  Sit tight or move back at least once to get an extra day two pick.

Then take a few flyers with the late round picks - QB, S, and Punter.  Also take a few of those 6th and 7th and try to get a 5th in 2020.

1 hour ago, HansLanda said:

At this point we all just need to hope they have their board setup 'correctly' with the proper values on each NCAA'er...Beane seems to let on he likes going BPA.

He says one thing and does another.  I don't believe in the BPA philosophy anyways.  Drafitng for need does not mean you have to target a certain player. Trade down, get more picks, draft for need.

And to be fair to Beane, addressing the QB position is entirely different than the rest of the roster.  I'm ok with the draft capital he gave up to get Allen.  But I am equally ok with stating if he misses on Allen he should be fired.  Can't give up a franchise LT and multiple picks and then miss on the pick.  He made his bed and now must live with it.

[bigK14094]

8 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

One tendency I have noticed so far is that they both like to trade up.

Yes, fewer higher picks is their mode.  I think its wrong mostly.  Study the talent and draft what is there is my view.  I think they lucked out on Josh Allen.....and likely made a mistake trading up for Edmunds.  Not that I don't like Edmunds, but, the picks surrendered would have provided a couple of good players, not just one.  The Bills have so many holes, I really can't think well of a few but higher stragedy.  That is what I saw....they lack nerve....always wanting to move up just a few to get this GREAT guy.

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

One tendency I have noticed so far is that they both like to trade up.

 

Agreed.  They have traded down if you believe McD ran the first draft, not Whaley and Beane was probably consulting.  I like them taking 10 slots to 7 for the better quality players and if you get four starters and three for depth is better than picking up a crap of later picks.  

 

The chances of 4th round and later becoming starters are low in the league.  It almost shows how they can find gems in later rounds like Milano.  I believe he was a 5th rounder who played like a 1st or 2nd.

 

Should be a fun two months before we go into NFL withdrawal, as OTA’s and camp are not exactly exciting.

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

The small school thing is likely a way to gain value on players that fit their physical and intellectual prototypes. If we’re honest we have to admit that a guy with Zay’s physical makeup doing what Zay did in the SEC is a top 10-15 pick. I think they’re willing to take shots on guys like this in the first 2-3 rounds and at the end of the draft. It’s a small sample size, but they also seem to go high floor in the middle rounds. That small school trend will likely continue. They seem to have faith in their ability to coach and develop these kids. 

 

Also, keep in mind their idea of prototype may not fit our usual expectations. Corner is a good example of this. They could be targeting guys that have size, agility, and intelligence to play zone over size speed man guys. They might have a guy like Lonnie Johnson (UK) rated a lot higher than we think. 

 

Notwithstanding ... 

 

As I said, to me anyway, the obvious pick was Smith-Shuster, and that was before the draft, I had no idea he'd be as good as he is, I simply expected Jones to not be very good.  Unfortunately I wasn't off there.  

 

That's all I'm saying, smaller school players are greater risk, all but categorically.  

[Alphadawg7]

Beane has been here one draft.

 

He has one tendency.  

 

That is BPA on his board.

 

That is how he will draft.