Inigo Montoya Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year. This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks. Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released. I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year. Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs. That is not this season. If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen. I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to build a roster the right way for long term success. I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era. I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year. I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes. 9 1 1
BADOLBILZ Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year. This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks. Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released. I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year. Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs. That is not this season. If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen. I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to build a roster the right way for long term success. I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era. I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year. I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes. Yours will be a popular take with those who wanted to summarily dismiss mistakes in year 1 and 2 as "all part of the original plan to get to that year 3 with $80M in cap room". The model for teams and their young QB's is to start contending in year 2. And Allen has a jump because he is getting his second year in year 3 of the regime! Pulling it off is another matter...........and in that regard.........after doing VERY poorly in free agency last offseason they certainly are going to need to play catch up this offseason. It can be done though...........a losing team one season can compete for a title the next season.........the Eagles and Rams have proven it very recently..........and the Bills have done pretty well in the past 2 drafts so the cupboard isn't bare. I wouldn't summarily write them off just yet..........nor should we just anticipate another season of mediocrity as part of a plan. 3
Inigo Montoya Posted February 16, 2019 Author Posted February 16, 2019 (edited) 35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yours will be a popular take with those who wanted to summarily dismiss mistakes in year 1 and 2 as "all part of the original plan to get to that year 3 with $80M in cap room". The model for teams and their young QB's is to start contending in year 2. And Allen has a jump because he is getting his second year in year 3 of the regime! Pulling it off is another matter...........and in that regard.........after doing VERY poorly in free agency last offseason they certainly are going to need to play catch up this offseason. It can be done though...........a losing team one season can compete for a title the next season.........the Eagles and Rams have proven it very recently..........and the Bills have done pretty well in the past 2 drafts so the cupboard isn't bare. I wouldn't summarily write them off just yet..........nor should we just anticipate another season of mediocrity as part of a plan. Good morning BADOLBILZ ? I'm not dismissing any mistakes. They certainly made some. Every GM and coach make mistakes, especially first time GMs and coaches, but I'm not ignoring their good moves either. On the whole, I think they have been doing a pretty good job with the hand they were dealt . Beane wheeled and dealed to accumulate the draft stock to go and get Allen last year, someone who has the potential to be a franchise QB. So far that is looking like a good move. As for free agency, I don't know what you expected Beane to do in free agency last year with the worst dead cap space situation in the league that he inherited. I liked Beane's approach to just rip the bandaid off and take his lumps in one year of cap space hell instead of paying the debt down over several seasons. It has resulted in a robust $87 MM in cap space this year. Looks like a solid GM move to me. I'm hopeful the team takes a step forward this year too. I guess I disagree with you that I am willing to accept another year of mediocrity if it tees us up for a run in 2020. I think I have a longer timeline that you do on this one, that's all. Our roster and our cap situation, hell everything about this franchise has been a dumpster fire for such a long time, I think it's just going to take a bit longer to get it turned around. So far, McBeane has earned some good will from me and I'm willing to give them some time. The off season seems sooo long, I am already anxious for kickoff. One good thing about the off season this year is that I'm only two hours from Nashville and my son and I will be there for the draft this year representing TBD. If the camera pans on a Bills fan with a Steve Tasker jersey on who looks just like Matthew McConaughey, except for being bald, a little more fat, and way more ugly, that's me! Edited February 16, 2019 by Inigo Montoya 6 2
Success Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 I think we have a good shot at the division this season. 2 1
eball Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 I think the plan all along by McD and Beane was for the Bills to be prepared to legitimately compete this year (playoffs), and then begin complete world domination in 2020. 10 1
Inigo Montoya Posted February 16, 2019 Author Posted February 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Success said: I think we have a good shot at the division this season. Hey Success, I'm hoping for 9 wins this season, 10 would be miraculous. That would put us in the Wild Card hunt. I still don't know if it would be enough to catch New England. The Pats will probably come out of the division at 5-1 (that's based on us stealing one from them). Even If we do split with New England and they are 5-1 in the division, they only have to be one game over .500 for the remainder of their schedule to get to 11 wins. I just don't see 11 wins for us this season. I hope you're right and I'm wrong.
Success Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said: Hey Success, I'm hoping for 9 wins this season, 10 would be miraculous. That would put us in the Wild Card hunt. I still don't know if it would be enough to catch New England. The Pats will probably come out of the division at 5-1 (that's based on us stealing one from them). Even If we do split with New England and they are 5-1 in the division, they only have to be one game over .500 for the remainder of their schedule to get to 11 wins. I just don't see 11 wins for us this season. I hope you're right and I'm wrong. It could play out that way. But Allen’s play at the end of the season has given me more hope. And while Brady’s longevity has confounded me, he’s not a god. This year’s SB win felt like a swan song to me. I think the Jets and Bills will be fighting it out for the division in the years ahead. 2
BillsShredder83 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Inigo Montoya said: I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year. This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks. Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released. I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year. Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs. That is not this season. If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen. I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to build a roster the right way for long term success. I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era. I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year. I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes. Wtf is a hog mollie 2
MJS Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 (edited) We don't even know what the moves will be. I have a sense that by the end of free agency and the draft that most Bills fans will expect this to be a playoff team and there will be some national buzz. BUT I also suspect that Josh Allen is going to still have some struggles. People seem to have forgotten that he still has a long way to go. He's not a franchise QB yet, although I suspect he will be one day. Edited February 16, 2019 by MJS
atlbillsfan1975 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 I mostly agree with you OP. I do think Beane and McDermott want to see the playoffs this year. The difference between the Rams and Eagles vs the Bills is the division. The Rams and Eagles don’t play in the same division as Belichick and Brady. I agree that over spending on a Clay type deal for a new tightend is not something I see Beane doing. The way McDermott gets the most out of the talent he has, could mean a couple extra wins. Getting to the playoffs ‘hot’ could mean a run. I just want to see Allen healthy. Beane needs to build an oline now. Indy showed you can do it in a year and the impact it can have on a talented quarterback. 2
Inigo Montoya Posted February 16, 2019 Author Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said: Wtf is a hog mollie LOL! It's an old football term of endearment for offensive linemen. ?
Thurman#1 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said: McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. I think that's overstating it. He's not looking further down the road completely. He's hoping things come together this year. And they could. The way I'd put it is that they're expecting success in 2020 and expecting improvement in 2019 with some degree of hope that there's enough to make a real run. But yeah, his primary goal is continuous long-term success, and he values that over immediate success. And you're obviously correct that a lot of fans here and generally focus on the next year rather than the long term. Edited February 16, 2019 by Thurman#1 1
nucci Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 (edited) it's always next year for Buffalo....I thought last year was done to set up 2019....now it's 2020? Edited February 16, 2019 by nucci 3
CajunBillsBacker Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 Anything can happen, and it’s going to mostly come down to how big of a step Josh Allen makes from year one to year two. The biggest key to this offseason is getting as much help as possible for Josh Allen to make that step. 1
Chandler#81 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, nucci said: it's always next year for Buffalo....I thought last year was done to set up 2019....now it's 2020? Yep, to me, this is where the OP’s theory goes awry. He/she even admits turnarounds can take place in one year. Nothing is promised in the NFL today. 3+ years to build a contender is ancient, pre FA 1990’s philosophy, guaranteed to get the coaching staff fired before the expiration date. Today, your starters from 3 years ago are playing for someone else. ‘Win now’ is the mantle of all teams’ operations. Otherwise, don’t buy a house. Given this years opponents, 7 of which are against AFC teams with all new coaching staffs (see above) and the middling NFCE, I believe 12 wins is conceivable, providing we stay relatively healthy. But, Thanks for the trip down Memory Lane, OP!?
Utah John Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 I think Beane is thinking 2020, but realistically the Bills are one Tom Brady knee injury from having the best roster in the division. Granted, that's a low bar. 1
machine gun kelly Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said: I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year. This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks. Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released. I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year. Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs. That is not this season. If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen. I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to build a roster the right way for long term success. I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era. I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year. I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes. It’s a good take and I’d be more than pleased on the high end going 10-6, and one wildcard win. I know we won’t be ready for a SB run, but a lot can happen with $74 mil minus the draft. My guess is we pick up two O Lineman, and two WR’s. (I’ve already on other threads mentioned who we should target). They will need to hold back at least $5-7 mil for the emergency fund, and another $15-20 mil to extend good players in 2020. That is at most $57 mil available to use before and after the draft. The point that we were horrible in free agency is not complete. We had some misses in Ducasse and Benjamin (I’m including trades and acquisitions), but we also found some gems in Foster, McKenzie, and White. They also had to be picky with $54 mil in cap hell, and prepare for this upcoming two years. I agree with good choices, coaching, and players performing at their best, 2020 and after are the years we get the old Bills back that were winners. I feel bad for the younger generation who only know losing or mediocrity. From 1988-2009, we went to the playoffs almost every one of those years. It wasn’t just the four SB losses, but we still were going to the playoffs with great defense under Wade, and Butler. 1
vorpma Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said: I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season. I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year. McBeane knows that. McBeane is still working on setting the table this year. He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road. That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year. This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks. Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released. I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year. Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs. That is not this season. If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen. I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to build a roster the right way for long term success. I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era. I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year. I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes. Great post, I agree!
machine gun kelly Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Utah John said: I think Beane is thinking 2020, but realistically the Bills are one Tom Brady knee injury from having the best roster in the division. Granted, that's a low bar. I never wish an injury on any player, not saying you want it either, but I’m speculating we have to put up with Brady and possibly Belicheck for two more years. By then Brady is 43, Belicheck is 68, every player heals slower and slower as they get older. Even tEnCal Ripken of the NFL, Favre only made it to 42. Granted he played a different type of game, but TB’s family will put more and more pressure on him to retire.
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