Couple of interesting stats from last year and my POA for 2019.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BidsJr said:

1st one is pretty obvious, Bills were 5-5 in Allen's last 10 starts with garbage all around him. If Clay catches the TD that is 6-4.

2nd one isn't so obvious, but it something that I always pay attention to with QB's. Sacks per pass attempt.

Bills QB's have been atrocious at this forever while Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers etc have managed to get the ball off without taking the big negative play.

Josh really excelled at this after returning from the injury. 181 pass attempts and only sacked 7 times. That is a sack taken every 26 attempts and an outstanding ratio.

My plan of action for next season would be this:

FA C
FA RT
FA #2 OR Slot WR.

Draft
R1 Trade back and pickup TJ Hockinson TE Iowa. If no trade back is available take him at 9.
R2 Guard or WR
R3 RB or whatever wasn't selected in R2 (G/WR)

Do this and we are a playoff team.

To add some context to the sack numbers

Pass attempt per sack
Allen 25.8 
Brady 19.8
PManning 30.9
Brees 24.8
Rivers 17.0
Rodgers 13.3
Favre 19.4

Recent Bills QB's
Tuh-Rod 9.5
Fitzpatrick 10.5
Manuel 12.5
Losman 8.8
Bledsoe 14.4
Johnson 5.7
Flutie 20.1
Kelly 14.8

I will add one more interesting stat about the overall effectiveness of Allen last year.

People have talked about the completion percentage ad nauseam and I am not going to go into that.

But if you add together the passing and running numbers from Josh to get an idea of overall effectiveness it comes out something like this.

258/409 for 63.0% 2705 yards 18 TD's and 13 INT's/FL

I really believe the future is very very bright.

I counted 182 pass attempts, not 181, but more importantly, those sacks should count as dropbacks too - he was sacked 7 times in 189 dropbacks, which equals 3.7 percent. It's 3.8 percent via the other method , but either way, that's really good for a Bills QB.  

 

You're sorta misleading about Fitz, however. He had a 3.7 rate for a full season in 2011. We're comparing small sample sizes here, so I think a season-only measure is better than a full career. (Fitz had the lowest sack rate in the league in 2015 for the Jets - 3.3 percent). Flutie had a great 3.3 rate in 1998, which just shows how much more field awareness he had than Sackmagnet Johnson.

[BidsJr]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I counted 182 pass attempts, not 181, but more importantly, those sacks should count as dropbacks too - he was sacked 7 times in 189 dropbacks, which equals 3.7 percent. It's 3.8 percent via the other method , but either way, that's really good for a Bills QB.  

 

You're sorta misleading about Fitz, however. He had a 3.7 rate for a full season in 2011. We're comparing small sample sizes here, so I think a season-only measure is better than a full career. (Fitz had the lowest sack rate in the league in 2015 for the Jets - 3.3 percent). Flutie had a great 3.3 rate in 1998, which just shows how much more field awareness he had than Sackmagnet Johnson.

 

Scrambles should also count as drop backs and that would greatly shift this favorably in Josh's favor.  No easy way to do that without watching every play.

[Foxx]

3 hours ago, BidsJr said:

For the purposes of this I counted each of his 89 rushes that were not sacks as a completion and an attempt.

 

I combined his rushing and passing numbers in a way that better shows how effective he was overall as a QB as he brings more to the table obviously than just passing.

[Chandler#81]

FWIW, I think this is a goofyassed thread and the OPs 22 total history comments appear to break the rules. But the odd topic is sort of interesting, if not recognized at all by League statisticians. 

Your call, folks. Keep it going?

[BidsJr]

6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

FWIW, I think this is a goofyassed thread and the OPs 22 total history comments appear to break the rules. But the odd topic is sort of interesting, if not recognized at all by League statisticians. 

Your call, folks. Keep it going?

 

I'm sorry.  I did not know that looking at things from a different perspective was against the rules.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The OC calls a passing play.  The QB has the ball in his hands and needs to do something to help his team.  The question shouldn't be "How often did he throw the ball and for how many yards?"  It should be "What was the ratio of good outcomes to bad ones?" 

 

For dual threat QBs, looking solely at comp%, yards and TD pass/Int ratio is only a partial analysis.  I read that Josh averaged over 10 yards on runs that started as pass plays.  If true, that is a huge number--a number bigger than any QB averaged per pass attempt.  It would be poor work to ignore this production in any comprehensive assessment of JA's rookie performance.  Many scrambling QBs also take more sacks and commit more turnovers as a result.  Apparently, not so for Josh.  

 

 

[BidsJr]

36 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

The OC calls a passing play.  The QB has the ball in his hands and needs to do something to help his team.  The question shouldn't be "How often did he throw the ball and for how many yards?"  It should be "What was the ratio of good outcomes to bad ones?" 

 

For dual threat QBs, looking solely at comp%, yards and TD pass/Int ratio is only a partial analysis.  I read that Josh averaged over 10 yards on runs that started as pass plays.  If true, that is a huge number--a number bigger than any QB averaged per pass attempt.  It would be poor work to ignore this production in any comprehensive assessment of JA's rookie performance.  Many scrambling QBs also take more sacks and commit more turnovers as a result.  Apparently, not so for Josh.  

 

 

Exactly this.

 

People have such tunnel vision on completion percentage, the whole picture is impossible for them to see.

 

There should be some sort of scrambling metric that takes into account sacks per drop back, first downs gained, third down conversions etc etc.  There is certainly efficient scrambling and bad scrambling that leads to high sack %.

[fansince88]

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

A simple, "I see your point" works really well.  You dont handle constructive criticism very well do you.

And you fail to criticize constructively.  You badgered him/her for 5 or 6 replies and because he/she didnt see your point he/she doesnt handle it well? Take it easy.

 

@BidsJr, good post. Thanks.

[BillsSB2020]

Not sure how much stock I'm going to put into any of the rest of these numbers, but the Sack/Attempt ratio is most certainly impressive.

 

Never thought that would be the case after I watched that first half of the preseason game against the Bungles. The young man tries to make something happen on every play.

[Mat68]

I agree with alot of it.  I'm not sold on Hockinson that high.  It's an argument if he is the best TE from Iowa.  With the way the draft is setting up I agree about the trade down but I would go Wr.  Marquis Brown or Dk Metcalf.  They are the best deep threats in the draft and I want to give Allen an elite deep threat.  Everything else I agree just flip Wr for Te.

2 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said:

Not sure how much stock I'm going to put into any of the rest of these numbers, but the Sack/Attempt ratio is most certainly impressive.

 

Never thought that would be the case after I watched that first half of the preseason game against the Bungles. The young man tries to make something happen on every play.

I really wish they just named Allen the starter after the Cleveland game.  That was 3 weeks of practice lost and he played 30 mins into the season anyways.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Mat68

[BillsSB2020]

15 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I agree with alot of it.  I'm not sold on Hockinson that high.  It's an argument if he is the best TE from Iowa.  With the way the draft is setting up I agree about the trade down but I would go Wr.  Marquis Brown or Dk Metcalf.  They are the best deep threats in the draft and I want to give Allen an elite deep threat.  Everything else I agree just flip Wr for Te.

I really wish they just named Allen the starter after the Cleveland game.  That was 3 weeks of practice lost and he played 30 mins into the season anyways.

For sure. My thought(and it's not original) is that they were thinking long term after the Cincy debacle. He didn't show the kind of escapability we saw all season and they thought he was gonna get killed behind that line. Big mistake by the FO and coaching staff, but probably not going to affect the long term.

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said:

For sure. My thought(and it's not original) is that they were thinking long term after the Cincy debacle. He didn't show the kind of escapability we saw all season and they thought he was gonna get killed behind that line. Big mistake by the FO and coaching staff, but probably not going to affect the long term.

Agree, but if you have so little faith in the starter that you replace him at halftime of game 1 why do it.  I thought is was a Bill Obrien oldschool decision.  When you walk to the field watch Allen practice and Petterman practice nothing said Petterman played football better.

[BillsSB2020]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Agree, but if you have so little faith in the starter that you replace him at halftime of game 1 why do it.  I thought is was a Bill Obrien oldschool decision.  When you walk to the field watch Allen practice and Petterman practice nothing said Petterman played football better.

I'm not letting them off the hook for the way they handled the QB situation. I think they were blindsided by McCaron's flaws and were too reluctant to just go with Allen. Beane admitted they miscalculated. Just saying it won't really mean much going forward provided they make better decisions. They are new to the game, so I'll let it slide. For now.

[Augie]

I’m not sure why you would give me Power of Attorney, but....do you have any good stuff? 

[Mango]

22 hours ago, BidsJr said:

 

 

The way that I am looking at it is that there is not much difference between Brady completing a 10 yard 1st down pass and Allen running for one.  When it comes to his overall impact on the game.

Scrambles for zero and negative yards are counted as sacks already.

 

 

Correct, but you’re trying to tell two stories with one formula...which is where the problem lies. 

 

If you’re going to count runs for positive yards and completions, then count sacks, zero gain, or negative gain, as an attempt and incompletion. You can’t just add half the data set and swing the pendulum one way. 

 

If JA is 6/10 and 80 yards, runs for 7 yards on the next play. Then he becomes 7/11 and 87 yards. Based on what you’re doing, if the next play he scrambles and is sacked for -3. He needs to be 7/12 for 84 yards. 

 

You can’t just count the positive plays for yards and completion %, and ignore the sacks/failed scrambles. 

[BidsJr]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

Correct, but you’re trying to tell two stories with one formula...which is where the problem lies. 

 

If you’re going to count runs for positive yards and completions, then count sacks, zero gain, or negative gain, as an attempt and incompletion. You can’t just add half the data set and swing the pendulum one way. 

 

If JA is 6/10 and 80 yards, runs for 7 yards on the next play. Then he becomes 7/11 and 87 yards. Based on what you’re doing, if the next play he scrambles and is sacked for -3. He needs to be 7/12 for 84 yards. 

 

You can’t just count the positive plays for yards and completion %, and ignore the sacks/failed scrambles. 

This is why I set Allens extremely impressive sack per attempt data alongside of this.

 

Post injury he was sacked 7 times in 181 attempts.  This did not include drop backs that turned to scrambles that went for positive gain.

 

I did not intend to do an exhaustive analysis on this, but simply to bring up a couple of points that I had not yet seen brought up.

[Green Lightning]

On 2/15/2019 at 4:02 PM, BidsJr said:

 

I'm sorry.  I did not know that looking at things from a different perspective was against the rules.

Smart-assing a mod is.

[Zerovoltz]

There is more to consider than just this “effectiveness “ formula.

 

if it is 3rd and 7 for example, and Allen doesn’t see the RB open on the wheel route, pulls the ball down and runs for a gain of 5, that is NOT a positive football play.  

 

On 1st and 10, play action, slot Wr is open down the seem.  Qb doesn’t see it, throws to TE on out route for 6.  That also isn’t optimal.

 

Alex Smith would do less than optimal things like this all the time.  These plays look great in a stat sheet because they are positive plays when only accounting for raw numbers.  

 

Aside from the completion pct issue (and it is an issue) Allen was not efficient at being optimal.  He didn’t get the most out of a given play most of the time. These missed opportunities are what is hardest to see but also most often lead to stalled drives and 3s instead of 7s

 

Where Allen and the team need to get better (this includes passing accuracy) is getting the max value of a given snap more often.

 

not that anyone here cares about Mahomes but literally running only 9 more total plays on offense last year than the year before with Smith, Mahomes was twice as efficient.  

 

Where it really shows is in the Red Zone when there is less field to defend.

 

Allen was 12/27 for 49 yards 4 TD an 1 INT.  

 

Matt Barkley played in ONE game for you and he was 4/7 for 33 yards and 3 TD in the red zone.

 

Jimmy Garropolo only played in 3 games last year.  He was 9/16 for 76 and 3 TD.  

 

Allen has to be more efficient period.  No sugarcoated cherry picked stats change that.  And that’s fine.

 

lets see how he does with some roster upgrades and a year of off season work.

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

On 2/15/2019 at 11:34 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

The OC calls a passing play.  The QB has the ball in his hands and needs to do something to help his team.  The question shouldn't be "How often did he throw the ball and for how many yards?"  It should be "What was the ratio of good outcomes to bad ones?" 

 

For dual threat QBs, looking solely at comp%, yards and TD pass/Int ratio is only a partial analysis.  I read that Josh averaged over 10 yards on runs that started as pass plays.  If true, that is a huge number--a number bigger than any QB averaged per pass attempt.  It would be poor work to ignore this production in any comprehensive assessment of JA's rookie performance.  Many scrambling QBs also take more sacks and commit more turnovers as a result.  Apparently, not so for Josh.  

 

 

I agree with u to an extent but u have to realize the scrambles are not sustainable.  Defenses will adjust to what Allen does best this off-season that's why it's imperative he adjusts his game and works on his weaknesses. 

 

In other words a QB is only as good as he is at his weaknesses because sooner or later that's all defenses are gonna give him. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/15/2019 at 9:05 AM, BidsJr said:

1st one is pretty obvious, Bills were 5-5 in Allen's last 10 starts with garbage all around him. If Clay catches the TD that is 6-4.

2nd one isn't so obvious, but it something that I always pay attention to with QB's. Sacks per pass attempt.

Bills QB's have been atrocious at this forever while Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers etc have managed to get the ball off without taking the big negative play.

Josh really excelled at this after returning from the injury. 181 pass attempts and only sacked 7 times. That is a sack taken every 26 attempts and an outstanding ratio.

 

 

Totally agree OP. 

 

Everyone wants to talk about Allen's accuracy. It does need to improve but I'm convinced it only needs to be improved a bit for him to be successful. Say, 58-59%.

 

The biggest positives were the growth we saw from Allen in TD:INT and sacks per attempt. Throw in the ability to know when and how to run which lead to an insanely high YPC and you have a QB that can easily win half his games. Then all we need is Allen to increase his completion percentage by a few points and add an improved running game and we are a couple games above .500 and in the playoffs.