Couple of interesting stats from last year and my POA for 2019.

[BidsJr]

1st one is pretty obvious, Bills were 5-5 in Allen's last 10 starts with garbage all around him. If Clay catches the TD that is 6-4.

2nd one isn't so obvious, but it something that I always pay attention to with QB's. Sacks per pass attempt.

Bills QB's have been atrocious at this forever while Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers etc have managed to get the ball off without taking the big negative play.

Josh really excelled at this after returning from the injury. 181 pass attempts and only sacked 7 times. That is a sack taken every 26 attempts and an outstanding ratio.

My plan of action for next season would be this:

FA C
FA RT
FA #2 OR Slot WR.

Draft
R1 Trade back and pickup TJ Hockinson TE Iowa. If no trade back is available take him at 9.
R2 Guard or WR
R3 RB or whatever wasn't selected in R2 (G/WR)

Do this and we are a playoff team.

To add some context to the sack numbers

Pass attempt per sack
Allen 25.8 
Brady 19.8
PManning 30.9
Brees 24.8
Rivers 17.0
Rodgers 13.3
Favre 19.4

Recent Bills QB's
Tuh-Rod 9.5
Fitzpatrick 10.5
Manuel 12.5
Losman 8.8
Bledsoe 14.4
Johnson 5.7
Flutie 20.1
Kelly 14.8

I will add one more interesting stat about the overall effectiveness of Allen last year.

People have talked about the completion percentage ad nauseam and I am not going to go into that.

But if you add together the passing and running numbers from Josh to get an idea of overall effectiveness it comes out something like this.

258/409 for 63.0% 2705 yards 18 TD's and 13 INT's/FL

I really believe the future is very very bright.

[DBilz2500]

Where do you come up with 63% comp percentage? 

[BidsJr]

For the purposes of this I counted each of his 89 rushes that were not sacks as a completion and an attempt.

 

I combined his rushing and passing numbers in a way that better shows how effective he was overall as a QB as he brings more to the table obviously than just passing.

[formerlyofCtown]

7 minutes ago, BidsJr said:

For the purposes of this I counted each of his 89 rushes that were not sacks as a completion and an attempt.

 

I combined his rushing and passing numbers in a way that better shows how effective he was overall as a QB as he brings more to the table obviously than just passing.

If you want to do it like that then fine.  However, did you count his sacks or any negative runs as incompletions.

[BidsJr]

1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

If you want to do it like that then fine.  However, did you count his sacks or any negative runs as incompletions.

 

In the vast majority of cases negative runs are counted as sacks already.

 

Beyond that, the purpose of this was to try and get an overall effectiveness including his running in order to more accurately compare to those who do not run.  If sacks were included as incompletions all QB's stats would have to be normalized and that doesn't really change my point.

[formerlyofCtown]

11 minutes ago, BidsJr said:

 

In the vast majority of cases negative runs are counted as sacks already.

 

Beyond that, the purpose of this was to try and get an overall effectiveness including his running in order to more accurately compare to those who do not run.  If sacks were included as incompletions all QB's stats would have to be normalized and that doesn't really change my point.

Stop and think because there runs are not counted as completions now are they.  If you want to figure stuff like that in its fine but weight it properly and dont skew it to fit your narative.

Im a big Allen supporter but I get after the anti-Allens for skewing data in their favor and I will get after you as well.

[BidsJr]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Stop and think because there runs are not counted as completions now are they.  If you want to figure stuff like that in its fine but weight it properly and dont skew it to fit your narative.

Im a big Allen supporter but I get after the anti-Allens for skewing data in their favor and I will get after you as well.

 

I am not skewing anything to fit any narrative.  I was simply trying to combine Josh's impact via the running game in a way that would be more reflective while comparing him against other more traditional QB's.

 

If you can come up with a more fair way to do it..  Have at it.  

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, BidsJr said:

 

I am not skewing anything to fit any narrative.  I was simply trying to combine Josh's impact via the running game in a way that would be more reflective while comparing him against other more traditional QB's.

 

If you can come up with a more fair way to do it..  Have at it.  

A simple, "I see your point" works really well.  You dont handle constructive criticism very well do you.

Edited February 15, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[BidsJr]

4 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

A simple.  I see your point works really well.  You dont handle constructive criticism very well do you.

LOL and neither do you. ?

[LABILLBACKER]

19 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Stop and think because there runs are not counted as completions now are they.  If you want to figure stuff like that in its fine but weight it properly and dont skew it to fit your narative.

Im a big Allen supporter but I get after the anti-Allens for skewing data in their favor and I will get after you as well.

I think to get an accurate analysis of a qb, you have to look at QBR instead of the antiquated QB rating.  Allen rates very close to Mayfield last year out of all the rookies. But you can't say his runs are like completions.

[formerlyofCtown]

7 minutes ago, BidsJr said:

LOL and neither do you. ?

?Sad.

[Bangarang]

I hate the idea of taking a TE with a top 10 pick. 

[formerlyofCtown]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think to get an accurate analysis of a qb, you have to look at QBR instead of the antiquated QB rating.  Allen rates very close to Mayfield last year out of all the rookies. But you can't say his runs are like completions.

You are correct,  but the OP has to at least be on the level with his analysis and not just count the things that will increase the completion percentage if he is going to try and make a point.

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, BidsJr said:

 

I am not skewing anything to fit any narrative.  I was simply trying to combine Josh's impact via the running game in a way that would be more reflective while comparing him against other more traditional QB's.

 

If you can come up with a more fair way to do it..  Have at it.  

 

 

I think he did. Count his scrambles for zero and negative yards as attempts and incompletions. 

 

You took sack data and tried to use it to show effectiveness for total yards. The two can't overlap in what you are trying to get the data to say. Remove the sack numbers, because they aren't really relevant to trying to measure overall yardage performance. 

[BidsJr]

1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

You are correct,  but the OP has to at least be on the level with his analysis and not just count the things that will increase the completion percentage if he is going to try and make a point.

 

 

The way that I am looking at it is that there is not much difference between Brady completing a 10 yard 1st down pass and Allen running for one.  When it comes to his overall impact on the game.

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

 

I think he did. Count his scrambles for zero and negative yards as attempts and incompletions. 

 

You took sack data and tried to use it to show effectiveness for total yards. The two can't overlap in what you are trying to get the data to say. Remove the sack numbers, because they aren't really relevant to trying to measure overall yardage performance. 

Scrambles for zero and negative yards are counted as sacks already.

[White Linen]

11 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I hate the idea of taking a TE with a top 10 pick. 

 

I do too.  Overall I like the OP's plan and I largely agree.  If he has RD 1 as a WR and OL or TE in Rd 2 - I'm on board. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

You'd have to subtract runs that were 1) goal line/short yardage and 2) kneeldowns or  3) designed run plays (draws and read options.)  So his sack rate per dropback (which would include scrambles runs and therefore be a larger number) would be even better vs. the league or historical averages of other Bills' QBs.  I'd say QBR appreciates this ability whereas the NFL's passer rating totally whiffs.

[BidsJr]

1 minute ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

You'd have to subtract runs that were 1) goal line/short yardage and 2) kneeldowns or  3) designed run plays (draws and read options.)  So his sack rate per dropback (which would include scrambles runs and therefore be a larger number) would be even better vs. the league or historical averages of other Bills' QBs.  I'd say QBR appreciates this ability whereas the NFL's passer rating totally whiffs.

 

Agreed.  Another way of looking at it is that he is taking a negative play via sack 1/26 attempts.  He is making a positive play via Arm OR Feet about 63% of the time.

 

Obviously these are approximations and we can argue on the minutia. 

[The Jokeman]

44 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

I hate the idea of taking a TE with a top 10 pick. 

If we could gurantee he'd be the next Gronk but I don't see that in Hockenson, he's the best of this class but think he's a teen-mid twenties pick. So to me I trade down and gather more picks and in the mid teens take the best available guy then. 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

An interesting and noteworthy analysis of Allen.

 

People have pointed out their concerns with the sack % data.............mine that I would add is that he will probably stop running so much and be more sackable when he does.

 

But overall good points.........his play was greater than the sum of his passing stats and hopefully he improves as a passer and has to run less.

 

As for the FA and draft plans..........fill your NEEDS in FA(which you did)..........not in the first couple rounds of the draft.

 

Particularly that first round pick should be a guy who would never hit FA if they hit their ceiling..........a stud at a $15M+ position (QB/PassRush/LT/CB/WR).     TE and G aren't those kinds of positions.  Drafting for need is how you get Shaq and Ragnuts with your first two picks.   

 

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by BADOLBILZ