Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

[transplantbillsfan]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, correct, he has an accuracy problem in the same manner as all the other rookies do.

 

But worse, as pointed out in this article and plenty of others. He could improve if his mechanics can be improved. I'm hopeful, myself.

 

Glad we can agree on something.

 

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

And you keep conflating accuracy as "balls that can be caught," which is just as false a comparison as saying it's equal to completion percentage. It's equal to neither.

 

Maybe you're conflating accuracy with precision. You might be. Good discussion and explanation distinguishing the 2 for you over here:

 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Glad we can agree on something.

 

 

Maybe you're conflating accuracy with precision. You might be. Good discussion and explanation distinguishing the 2 for you over here:

 

 

 

We can agree that he has the same problem but worse? Great. I'm glad too.

 

As for the discussion over there, I've seen it before and it's beside the point. Accuracy and precision are listed as synonyms very often. There's a slight difference in physics labs. As for the real world, though, they're much the same thing.

 

Bottom line is this. Those people who make an equivalence between completion percentage and accuracy are wrong. That is a false equivalence. As is "balls that can be caught" and accuracy. A ball thrown well behind a guy who manages to jack on the brakes and dive backwards and make the catch is a "ball that can be caught," proved by the fact that it is caught. But the idea that it's accurate is completely laughable.

 

They are not the same thing and not even particularly close.

 

Accuracy can't be counted. It's nebulous, in football. You counted "catchable," which itself is reasonably often debatable, but far more countable and quantifiable than accuracy. More countable, less useful, as most QBs, including the not very good ones, can throw a very high percentage of catchable balls while still not being good enough for NFL starters. Tyrod threw a lot of catchable balls.

Edited February 17, 2019 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

30 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We can agree that he has the same problem but worse? Great. I'm glad too.

 

Meant to highlight that first line alone.

 

My bad.

 

Quote

 

As for the discussion over there, I've seen it before and it's beside the point. Accuracy and precision are listed as synonyms very often. There's a slight difference in physics labs. As for the real world, though, they're much the same thing.

 

Bottom line is this. Those people who make an equivalence between completion percentage and accuracy are wrong. That is a false equivalence. As is "balls that can be caught" and accuracy. A ball thrown well behind a guy who manages to jack on the brakes and dive backwards and make the catch is a "ball that can be caught," proved by the fact that it is caught. But the idea that it's accurate is completely laughable.

 

They are not the same thing and not even particularly close.

 

Accuracy can't be counted. It's nebulous, in football. You counted "catchable," which itself is reasonably often debatable, but far more countable and quantifiable than accuracy. More countable, less useful, as most QBs, including the not very good ones, can throw a very high percentage of catchable balls while still not being good enough for NFL starters. Tyrod threw a lot of catchable balls.

 

Sorry bud... but nope.

 

Still waiting for you to cross reference like you claimed you wanted to.

Edited February 17, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[downunderbill]

On 2/15/2019 at 12:38 PM, matter2003 said:

Nothing to do with development, more to do with not being afraid to throw the ball deep...something a lot of QBs seem to be content with is the 2 yard completion on 3rd and 8 followed by a punt. Sometimes thats the smart play, but not when it happens 5 and 6 times a game.

 

Agree, I love that he is looking past the sticks. It felt the last few years that our QB would take the short throw and rely on the player for YAC to get firsts. It felt like every set of downs was run, run, short pass to the LOS and punt.

Josh seems to rely on the player to get into a first down position when he throws or when he runs he heads straight for the sticks before turning upfield. That kid going to take over games this year.

Edited February 17, 2019 by downunderbill

[oldmanfan]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

We can agree that he has the same problem but worse? Great. I'm glad too.

 

As for the discussion over there, I've seen it before and it's beside the point. Accuracy and precision are listed as synonyms very often. There's a slight difference in physics labs. As for the real world, though, they're much the same thing.

 

Bottom line is this. Those people who make an equivalence between completion percentage and accuracy are wrong. That is a false equivalence. As is "balls that can be caught" and accuracy. A ball thrown well behind a guy who manages to jack on the brakes and dive backwards and make the catch is a "ball that can be caught," proved by the fact that it is caught. But the idea that it's accurate is completely laughable.

 

They are not the same thing and not even particularly close.

 

Accuracy can't be counted. It's nebulous, in football. You counted "catchable," which itself is reasonably often debatable, but far more countable and quantifiable than accuracy. More countable, less useful, as most QBs, including the not very good ones, can throw a very high percentage of catchable balls while still not being good enough for NFL starters. Tyrod threw a lot of catchable balls.

Accuracy and precision are very much different and you claiming they the same does not make it so.

[Foxx]

will you guys claiming that accuracy and precision means two different things just stop already. i pointed out in the other thread that they were the same so, now we will burst your bubble a little more.

le

 

 

in case you don't understand what synonym means either....

 

[oldmanfan]

31 minutes ago, Foxx said:

will you guys claiming that accuracy and precision means two different things just stop already. i pointed out in the other thread that they were the same so, now we will burst your bubble a little more.

le

 

 

in case you don't understand what synonym means either....

 

You can google anyone of a number of sites that will tell you they are not the same.  Here's one just as an example:  https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.

 

 

Statistically accuracy is how close a value is to a given value, precision is how close different measured values are to each other.  They are very different, especially in lab setting (I run one, so I know) and other scientific fields.  let's say our blood pressure is really 200 systolic, but your at home pressure indicators consistently says it's 120.  Very precise, but horribly inaccurate.   Or you take ten measures that range from 180-220, but the mean is around 200.  Horribly imprecise, but pretty accurate.  Confusing accuracy and precision in medicine can get you killed.

 

Now, take it to football.  What transplantbillsfan says is actually correct, in that he has taken a measure of accuracy (i.e. catchable vs. not) and applied it not only to Allen but many other young QBs in another thread.  And he is as accurate as any.  I did the same with his last couple games. Now, if you want to define accuracy as, say, only hitting a guy right between the two numbers on his uniform, then you are using an extremely narrow interpretation of accurate, so much so that it would then equal precision, in that he has to hit a very specific spot time after time.

 

In looking at the value of accuracy vs. precision in QB play, it comes down to things like fitting a ball into a tight  window, or putting it exactly where a WR can make a play but a CB right on him can't.  That involves both great accuracy AND great precision, as the dartboard analogy above shows.  The great QBs are both accurate AND precise.  Allen is pretty accurate as transplant has shown; he needs to e more precise on his ball placement.  And to be fair, more accurate on certain throws like his short ones to the flat. 

 

Your posting Wikipedia definitions of accuracy and precision show you have not really ever worked in a field where an understanding of them are both mandatory and critical.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/15/2019 at 2:23 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

YPC broken down in 1st 6 starts vs. last 6 starts on scrambles alone.

 

1st 6 starts:

6.6 YPC

(18 scrambles for 119 yards, 5 1st downs, 3/5 on 3rd down scrambles, 2 TDs)

 

2nd 6 starts:

15 YPC

(27 scrambles for 406 yards, 13 1st downs, 4/7 on 3rd down scrambles, 3 TDs)

 

 

Seriously...

 

Thanks.

 

I was wanting more of a breakdown on the passes.

 

Yeah, i had figured it was at least 12 ypc in his final six games. I had calculated it to almost 9 ypc without deducting for the kneel downs and the 3rd 4th and 1 conversions.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Thanks.

 

I was wanting more of a breakdown on the passes.

 

Yeah, i had figured it was at least 12 ypc in his final six games. I had calculated it to almost 9 ypc without deducting for the kneel downs and the 3rd 4th and 1 conversions.

 

Those numbers I gave are solely on scrambles.

 

AKA runs on passing plays.

 

No designed runs in there.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/17/2019 at 7:18 PM, oldmanfan said:

Accuracy and precision are very much different and you claiming they the same does not make it so.

 

 

Yes, in a physics lab there are differences.

 

Frankly, nobody here except maybe you gives much of a ***** how people talk in a physics lab. Look it up in any dictionary or thesaurus. They're synonyms. One is often used in the definition of the other.

 

The way it's used in football, it's the same thing.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/17/2019 at 9:48 PM, oldmanfan said:

You can google anyone of a number of sites that will tell you they are not the same.  Here's one just as an example:  https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.

 

 

Statistically accuracy is how close a value is to a given value, precision is how close different measured values are to each other.  They are very different, especially in lab setting (I run one, so I know) and other scientific fields.  let's say our blood pressure is really 200 systolic, but your at home pressure indicators consistently says it's 120.  Very precise, but horribly inaccurate.   Or you take ten measures that range from 180-220, but the mean is around 200.  Horribly imprecise, but pretty accurate.  Confusing accuracy and precision in medicine can get you killed.

 

Now, take it to football.  What transplantbillsfan says is actually correct, in that he has taken a measure of accuracy (i.e. catchable vs. not) and applied it not only to Allen but many other young QBs in another thread.  And he is as accurate as any.  I did the same with his last couple games. Now, if you want to define accuracy as, say, only hitting a guy right between the two numbers on his uniform, then you are using an extremely narrow interpretation of accurate, so much so that it would then equal precision, in that he has to hit a very specific spot time after time.

 

In looking at the value of accuracy vs. precision in QB play, it comes down to things like fitting a ball into a tight  window, or putting it exactly where a WR can make a play but a CB right on him can't.  That involves both great accuracy AND great precision, as the dartboard analogy above shows.  The great QBs are both accurate AND precise.  Allen is pretty accurate as transplant has shown; he needs to e more precise on his ball placement.  And to be fair, more accurate on certain throws like his short ones to the flat. 

 

Your posting Wikipedia definitions of accuracy and precision show you have not really ever worked in a field where an understanding of them are both mandatory and critical.

 

 

 

 

Cracks me up. This guy just don't get it. You have to go to a sit called "mathisfun.com" to find his evidence. And in the evidence he himself provides, it's talking about "how close a value is to a given value." A "value". Hmm. That's a number, isn't it?

 

Does he get it? Nah, nor will he ever.

 

In football there are no values and no real way to measure one. And yeah, most of us haven't worked in a field where understanding how physicists or math geeks use these words ... and therefore we understand that outside of those very cloistered little science journals and lab experiments they aren't used that way.

 

Oxford has this as the definition of accuracy, "the quality or state of being correct or precise." And then it has a definition - labelled "technical" in green - that talks about what these bores keep talking about.

 

You look for synonyms for accuracy and every single dictionary or thesaurus I checked (though in fairness I stopped at seven) had precision as a synonym.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 2/17/2019 at 11:52 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Sorry bud... but nope.

 

Still waiting for you to cross reference like you claimed you wanted to.

 

 

Cross-reference what? The definition of accuracy? What?

 

And as for your "nope," about Tyrod, um, yep. Who was it again, who went on (and on and on and on and on and on, relentlessly, unstoppably and just about never-endingly, at least till the trade) about how Tyrod was accurate and was going to be a franchise guy? Used the word "near-elite," if I remember correctly? Oh, yeah .... that was you.

 

You did a million research projects on Tyrod too, and somehow they all came out with highly positive perceptions.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Thurman#1

[John from Riverside]

While I am in the camp of ppl that really want to see Josh Develop his overall game......I really hope that he just becomes more accurate with his checkdowns but is still agressive throwing the ball down the field like he is.......

 

His arm is exceptional.......we should not ask him to not use it.  There are situations where taking the short stuff would benefit him and the team though.

[oldmanfan]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Cracks me up. This guy just don't get it. You have to go to a sit called "mathisfun.com" to find his evidence. And in the evidence he himself provides, it's talking about "how close a value is to a given value." A "value". Hmm. That's a number, isn't it?

 

Does he get it? Nah, nor will he ever.

 

In football there are no values and no real way to measure one. And yeah, most of us haven't worked in a field where understanding how physicists or math geeks use these words ... and therefore we understand that outside of those very cloistered little science journals and lab experiments they aren't used that way.

 

Oxford has this as the definition of accuracy, "the quality or state of being correct or precise." And then it has a definition - labelled "technical" in green - that talks about what these bores keep talking about.

 

You look for synonyms for accuracy and every single dictionary or thesaurus I checked (though in fairness I stopped at seven) had precision as a synonym.

 

 

 

 

 

In any case, if you were going to use Transplants' system, you can't put a number on it, since a guy's window would be different for different guys on different routes and yadda yadda yadda. But if you do use it, you'd have to start with an NFL-average WR armspan. The combine shows that NFL WRs tend to fall between 70 and 80 inches, though last year the 5'8" and change Braxton Berrios came in at 68.25. Jaleel Scott was 81.25. A few TEs were also over 80. But on average that puts it at about 75 inches, which is 6 feet, 3 inches. If you dive forward you probably stretch that forward by a foot or a foot and a half forward and if you jam on the brakes and throw yourself back you probably stretch it backwards by a couple of feet.

 

So by Transplant's measure, hitting a window that's somewhere in the neighborhood of ten feet wide makes you "accurate." Drew Brees is somewhere cracking up with laughter.

 

 

So what you are saying is that you are ignorant of what accuracy vs. precision means.  Hope the next time you go to get your blood pressure checked they don't mix the two up.  Or if they do then we might not have to read your pedantic nonsense every time you're shown to be wrong about something.

 

The OP defined his measure of accuracy.  I note you haven't, other than to ridicule his.  Because presuambly you like others have no clue what it means.  I would define as within the catch radius; but then you would have t ask Allen if he threw it right where he wanted and if the WR ran a bad route.  

 

As for it not applying to football, strange that the classic way to describe the difference is by the dartboard analogy, I.e. Throwing a projectile at a specific spot.  Sounds like what a forward pass is, doesn't it?

[Thurman#1]

12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So what you are saying is that you are ignorant of what accuracy vs. precision means.

 

 

 

See? This guy is never going to get this.

 

He doesn't understand that we're all interested in what people mean when they use it in discussions of football. What normal humans mean. What Terry Bradshaw means when he says it.

 

There is an immensely tiny subset of pedantic people who worry about the difference. But nobody else cares. This guy and one or two more like him will go on and on boringly about this. Nobody much will care. I'm finished. Why bother.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Thurman#1

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

See? This guy is never going to get this.

 

He doesn't understand that we're all interested in what people mean when they use it in discussions of football. What normal humans mean. What Terry Bradshaw means when he says it.

 

There is an immensely tiny subset of pedantic people who worry about the difference. But nobody else cares. This guy and one or two more like him will go on and on boringly about this. Nobody much will care. I'm finished. Why bother.

You always decide not to bother anymore when you're shown to be wrong.  Your ego doesn't allow you to admit it and actually learn something.  You did the same thing back on the old BBMB; when proven wrong all you can do is throw childish insults.

 

It is amazing that some here refuse to see the difference between accuracy and precision in throwing a football, when the classic definition of such is throwing darts at a dart board.  The same concepts.  For a guy to win a dart board contest he has to be both accurate AND precise.  So do QBs if they want to be great.  They have to consistently put the football right on the spot where a receiver can catch the ball, away from where a defender if on him, in a position where the receiver can not only catch the ball but where he can continue making the play.

 

Perhaps you've hear of the phrase "fitting the ball into a tight window"?  That is being not only accurate but very precise, and the greats are both.  A guy like Brees can put it on a dime every time.  Allen?  If you chart his passes, and use a definition of catch radius like I do (and I looked closely at his last 3-4 games), he's accurate.  The ball over 80% of the time was in that radius.  But he needs to be more precise, needs to put it consistently on a given spot where the receiver can make the catch and keep going.  And he needs to be better at both with the short passes, as I have said previously.

 

Now, if one wants to use a very narrow definition of accurate as, say, it has to hit a guy right between the numbers?  Then the definition of accurate and precision overlap.  But that would be defining accuracy incorrectly.  Kind of like a good old boy like Bradshaw would do.

[Thurman#1]

If you are going to use Transplants' system, how close does a throw have to get to be accurate?

 

A WR's window would be different for different guys on different routes and yadda yadda yadda. But you'd have to start with an NFL-average WR armspan. The combine shows that NFL WRs tend to fall between 70 and 80 inches, though last year the 5'8" and change Braxton Berrios came in at 68.25. Jaleel Scott was 81.25. A few TEs were also over 80. But on average that puts it at about 75 inches, which is 6 feet, 3 inches. If you dive forward you probably stretch that forward by a couple of feet forward and if you jam on the brakes and throw yourself back you probably stretch it backwards by a couple of feet.

 

So by Transplant's measure, hitting a window that's somewhere in the neighborhood of ten feet wide makes you "accurate." Drew Brees is somewhere cracking up with disbelieving laughter.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Cross-reference what? The definition of accuracy? What?

 

No.  Your previous complaint about my catchable vs. uncatchable pass % for Allen and the other 2019 rookies when you said 

 

If you'd broken it down, giving totals for each game for instance, it would've been easy for someone on these boards to check a game or two and see if your per game totals were on target. But as is your method, you don't provide details - no gross numbers, no game by game breakdowns, no nothing except your percentage conclusions - making checks all but impossible.

 

Thanks for the effort. If you'd given a reasonable chance to check, I'd have done so. But you never do, though I've asked before and it wouldn't have required much extra effort. It's not surprising you're not now.

 

Which leaves no choice but to point out that as you yourself point out, you're a huge Josh Allen fan and you're disagreeing with everyone else who did the work. Their work is just more believable, as they don't much care how the tallies come out.

 

I genuinely thought you'd give it a try.  Since then, I've added Watson and Wentz Allen remains #2 out of 7 other QBs in terms of throwing passes that are catchable after you exclude throwaways.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

And as for your "nope," about Tyrod, um, yep. Who was it again, who went on (and on and on and on and on and on, relentlessly, unstoppably and just about never-endingly, at least till the trade) about how Tyrod was accurate and was going to be a franchise guy? Used the word "near-elite," if I remember correctly? Oh, yeah .... that was you.

 

Tyrod?  What the hell are you bringing Tyrod up for?

 

You obsessed with him or something?

 

You write like 4 paragraphs on the original topic of accuracy, all of which I was disagreeing with and it had been talked to death in the thread I referred to right above, which was why I responded with a simple "nope."

 

Yet, you assume I'm referring to the 7 irrelevant words you throw in at the end?

 

 

 

You obsessed with Tyrod or something...?

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/17/2019 at 2:48 AM, oldmanfan said:

You can google anyone of a number of sites that will tell you they are not the same.  Here's one just as an example:  https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.

 

 

Statistically accuracy is how close a value is to a given value, precision is how close different measured values are to each other.  They are very different, especially in lab setting (I run one, so I know) and other scientific fields.  let's say our blood pressure is really 200 systolic, but your at home pressure indicators consistently says it's 120.  Very precise, but horribly inaccurate.   Or you take ten measures that range from 180-220, but the mean is around 200.  Horribly imprecise, but pretty accurate.  Confusing accuracy and precision in medicine can get you killed.

 

Now, take it to football.  What transplantbillsfan says is actually correct, in that he has taken a measure of accuracy (i.e. catchable vs. not) and applied it not only to Allen but many other young QBs in another thread.  And he is as accurate as any.  I did the same with his last couple games. Now, if you want to define accuracy as, say, only hitting a guy right between the two numbers on his uniform, then you are using an extremely narrow interpretation of accurate, so much so that it would then equal precision, in that he has to hit a very specific spot time after time.

 

In looking at the value of accuracy vs. precision in QB play, it comes down to things like fitting a ball into a tight  window, or putting it exactly where a WR can make a play but a CB right on him can't.  That involves both great accuracy AND great precision, as the dartboard analogy above shows.  The great QBs are both accurate AND precise.  Allen is pretty accurate as transplant has shown; he needs to e more precise on his ball placement.  And to be fair, more accurate on certain throws like his short ones to the flat. 

 

Your posting Wikipedia definitions of accuracy and precision show you have not really ever worked in a field where an understanding of them are both mandatory and critical.

 

 

 

Very well said 

[transplantbillsfan]

Did someone hijack Thurm's account?

 

Doesn't sound like the usually thoughtful--albeit occasionally acerbic and sarcastic--poster I've come to know and love over the years.

 

Mother time is giving out a beating, perhaps?