Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

Didnt he do a better job toward the last few games of the season?

 

Yes he did, and I am pretty confident he will continue to do so.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Yeah, Allen has work to do on his accuracy, but no more than the typical NFL rookie... and that's on all passes.

 

I still challenge you to go do the work and watch every rookie pass. If Allen has an accuracy problem, so does every single rookie this year along with Watson last year and Wentz from 2 years ago, who had a game more awful than any individual game of Allen's accuracy wise when the Eagles played the Giants in week 9.

 

The idea that Allen needs to take more checkdowns is absolutely true. But the numbers say Allen threw the fewest number of passes 10 yards or less?

 

Well, to be frank, part of the problem was that our WRs and TEs sucked. They either couldn't get open or couldn't catch the damn ball.

 

On plays like this, Allen occasionally took an unnecessary sack. But he would also gain positive yards on other plays like this with his legs. Actually he did that 40 times for 412 yards, 15 1st downs and 4 TDs.

 

I hope our WRs upgrade massively this offseason through a combination of Foster and Say getting better and going out and drafting or acquiring a couple more who could push for a #1 or #2 role. Along with dumping Clay and getting other TEs--just about anyone else will do--if we can upgrade these weapons I think we're going to see Allen's completion percentage go up at all levels of the field and he's going to trust in them more and actually throw more of those checkdowns.

 

 

 

We could also maybe consider massively upgrade our OL so they can protect him for longer so he can continue to throw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL since that's his greatest strength... 

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

16 hours ago, H2o said:

This makes me think of his Wyoming coach talking about Josh while in a practice. He said there was a play they were running and Josh was supposed to throw the ball to the RB in the flat. He proceeds to unleash a 60 yard bomb. The coach says, "Josh, the play was supposed to go to the RB in the flat." Josh says, "Coach, Favre says Touchdowns first."

 

Josh is always looking for the big play. Once he reels that in a little bit and adds that balance then he will be tough to handle. 

I get where this isn't ideal.... but after my entire adult lifetime of Trentative Bills passers, that quote tickles me where i like being tickled ???

[Thurman#1]

22 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He doesn't necessarily have an accuracy issue, he has a completion percentage issue which will improve as he gets better at reading defenses and gets the ball out sooner.

 

 

Yes, he has a completion percentage issue.

 

And an accuracy problem as well. 

 

No, the two aren't one and the same. But yes, he has both. Both may - or may not - be largely due to his mechanics problems. Hopefully he can get better at both.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, he has a completion percentage issue.

 

And an accuracy problem as well. 

 

No, the two aren't one and the same. But yes, he has both. Both may - or may not - be largely due to his mechanics problems. Hopefully he can get better at both.

 

He has an accuracy problem in the same manner all the other rookies do.

 

Strive for 100% accuracy. That'd be wonderful.

 

But considering Allen and all the other rookie QBs hover somewhere around 80% as far as throwing balls that can be caught, McBeane will and should be much more worried about upgrading the talent surrounding Allen to help his completion percentage go up than Allen himself putting in the work, which he started doing right after the season ended when he went out to Cali to work with Jordan Palmer again.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/12/2019 at 3:08 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, he has a completion percentage issue.

 

And an accuracy problem as well. 

 

No, the two aren't one and the same. But yes, he has both. Both may - or may not - be largely due to his mechanics problems. Hopefully he can get better at both.

 

Yes, I guess Josh has both those problems

 

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

On 2/11/2019 at 9:11 AM, costrovs said:

Who cares?? Honestly.... Do people want Josh to check-down more to make his accuracy % higher?? Do people want him to throw it to the RB at the line of scrimmage, or 2-3 yards beyond it just to get tackled right when the RB catches the ball? We've seen it too many times being a bills fan. Tyrod or whoever throws check-downs to the RB near the sideline, who are either behind/on/ or 1-2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, just to get tackled for no gain or a loss on the play. I've seen Allen look to his check-down multiple times a game, but not throw to him even though he's wide open, then watch Allen throw the long ball, or run with it. I rather he take a chance throwing it down field or running than dumping it off to the running back for little gain.

 

You keep doing you, Mr. Josh " No Check-down" Allen

 

Personally, I’d like to see him develop the check down game more and extend drives that way. All he needs to do is rewatch this years Super Bowl to see the value in taking what the defense gives you. 

[NoSaint]

On 2/11/2019 at 7:58 AM, matter2003 said:

I'd much rather him throw the ball deep first and have to learn to check it down than the other way araound like Tyrod and Captain Checkdown Edwards...

 

Other than excitement- anything supporting that being better for a development track?

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Other than excitement- anything supporting that being better for a development track?

Nothing to do with development, more to do with not being afraid to throw the ball deep...something a lot of QBs seem to be content with is the 2 yard completion on 3rd and 8 followed by a punt. Sometimes thats the smart play, but not when it happens 5 and 6 times a game.

[hemma]

Give him consistently solid pass pro, get the run game back to where it should be and the current fascination with check downery will evaporate.

[stinky finger]

Besides an upgrade to the OL, I believe a stud TE would do wonders for this kid.

 

 

[TigerJ]

I think that it's pretty obvious that part of Allen's growth process needs to be in his reading of defenses.  He's smart, but I don't think he was well developed in that area coming out of college.  When reading defenses becomes second nature for him, he will spread the ball around more.  He can throw the long ball, and his willingness to do so, coupled with receivers who can take the lid off a defense, will create more openings for underneath completions.  He can't ignore those because if he does opposing teams will be able to commit more resources to stopping the deep completions.  I'm optimistic that Allen will continue to develop.

[eball]

8 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I think that it's pretty obvious that part of Allen's growth process needs to be in his reading of defenses.  He's smart, but I don't think he was well developed in that area coming out of college.  When reading defenses becomes second nature for him, he will spread the ball around more.  He can throw the long ball, and his willingness to do so, coupled with receivers who can take the lid off a defense, will create more openings for underneath completions.  He can't ignore those because if he does opposing teams will be able to commit more resources to stopping the deep completions.  I'm optimistic that Allen will continue to develop.

 

I've been banging this drum for weeks.  Josh is/was so far behind the other top QBs in terms of development and it speaks volumes he performed as well as he did last season.  Now that he has those "practice" games under his belt and will be coming into camp as a veteran rather than a wide-eyed rookie, I can't wait to see the results.

[PrimeTime101]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 11:29 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Yeah, Allen has work to do on his accuracy, but no more than the typical NFL rookie... and that's on all passes.

 

I still challenge you to go do the work and watch every rookie pass. If Allen has an accuracy problem, so does every single rookie this year along with Watson last year and Wentz from 2 years ago, who had a game more awful than any individual game of Allen's accuracy wise when the Eagles played the Giants in week 9.

 

The idea that Allen needs to take more checkdowns is absolutely true. But the numbers say Allen threw the fewest number of passes 10 yards or less?

Well, to be frank, part of the problem was that our WRs and TEs sucked. They either couldn't get open or couldn't catch the damn ball.

In plays like this, Allen occasionally took an unnecessary sack. But he would also gain positive yards on other plays like this with his legs. Actually he did that 40 times for 412 yards, 15 1st downs and 4 TDs.

 

I hope our WRs upgrade massively this offseason through a combination of Foster and Say getting better and going out and drafting or acquiring a couple more who could push for a #1 or #2 role. Along with dumping Clay and getting other TEs--just about anyone else will do--if we can upgrade these weapons I think we're going to see Allen's completion percentage go up at all levels of the field and he's going to trust in them more and actually throw more of those checkdowns.

 

We could also maybe consider massively upgrade our OL so they can protect him for longer so he can continue to throw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL since that's his greatest strength... 

I agree with this assessment and on top of it all, how often was the dump off pass/short passes even open? The first thing defenses do to rookie QB's is take away the short easy stuff within 5 yards.. then when defenses see he isn't even trying to throw short they switch off to anti deep stuff and by doing so gave JA massive running routs.

 

Here is one thing that is most important for people to understand.. As a TEAM, our WR'S had the worst gap like 1.1 yards between them and the defenders. By far worst in the league. Much of the short routs just was not there.. Also with our running game failing how many second then third and 14 plays were there this season?

 

so much to add to your assessment and I think holds the most weight here because you put the work into it.

 

Solid post.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 2/11/2019 at 4:07 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll acknowledged at the end of the season that Allen needs to hit his checkdowns better. 'People are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, the corners bailing off,' the Bills’ offensive coordinator said. 'I think we can help ourselves, too, by taking what they give us on some of those verticals.'

 

"The Bills did not try to be a horizontal, possession-passing offense for most of 2018. That’s not necessarily best suited to a rookie quarterback. Allen’s big arm is a deep-passing threat to the defense, and the emergence of Robert Foster helped the deep passing game improve the second half of the season."

 

The numbers are interesting. Clearly he's got accuracy issues, which we're all aware of. But it's interesting to see that two specific areas where it turns up are specifically what PFF calls "underneath throws" and throws where he held the ball longer.

 

 

 

The quote in bold by Daboll could be a reason why Allen's YPC sky rocketted in his final six starts of the season. Taking what the defense gives him with his legs.

 

It would be nice if  we could see these stats broken down from his first six starts vs. his last six starts. I'm betting they are similar but I do think we would see some improvement. His biggest improvement as a QB between his first six starts and last six were in number of sacks taken and TD:INT percentage. Those two things tell me he had learned to limit the big mistakes. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I agree with this assessment and on top of it all, how often was the dump off pass/short passes even open? The first thing defenses do to rookie QB's is take away the short easy stuff within 5 yards.. then when defenses see he isn't even trying to throw short they switch off to anti deep stuff and by doing so gave JA massive running routs.

 

Here is one thing that is most important for people to understand.. As a TEAM, our WR'S had the worst gap like 1.1 yards between them and the defenders. By far worst in the league. Much of the short routs just was not there.. Also with our running game failing how many second then third and 14 plays were there this season?

 

so much to add to your assessment and I think holds the most weight here because you put the work into it.

 

Solid post.

 

Yeah - with our WRs teams were very comfortable playing man coverage.  So Allen hurt them with his legs.  We really lacked receivers who could create space over short distances.  Zay was starting to show that more, but a really solid slot guy and a TE gives a young QB a great safety blanket.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The quote in bold by Daboll could be a reason why Allen's YPC sky rocketted in his final six starts of the season. Taking what the defense gives him with his legs.

 

It would be nice if  we could see these stats broken down from his first six starts vs. his last six starts. I'm betting they are similar but I do think we would see some improvement. His biggest improvement as a QB between his first six starts and last six were in number of sacks taken and TD:INT percentage. Those two things tell me he had learned to limit the big mistakes. 

 

YPC broken down in 1st 6 starts vs. last 6 starts on scrambles alone.

 

1st 6 starts:

6.6 YPC

(18 scrambles for 119 yards, 5 1st downs, 3/5 on 3rd down scrambles, 2 TDs)

 

2nd 6 starts:

15 YPC

(27 scrambles for 406 yards, 13 1st downs, 4/7 on 3rd down scrambles, 3 TDs)

 

 

Seriously...

[tcampbell104]

the last game against the dolphins he was taking more what he was given, im encouraged

[stuvian]

this from Landry football:

The Bills offseason work with quarterback Josh Allen will be to improve his ability to recognize the check down option better. Allen completed an NFL-low 10.1 passes per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2018.

The league average for the 32 starting quarterbacks was 16.5 completions per game on “short passes,” within 10 yards of the line.

Allen also had the lowest completion percentage on short passes. The Bills rookie completed 75 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line, which isn’t quite as good as it sounds.

The league average for starting QBs was 81 percent.

There are many reasons the Bills’ short passing game was poor in 2018. And there’s no doubt Allen has plenty of improvement to make in his accuracy.

But in theory, it’s not hard to imagine Allen’s accuracy improving by some degree simply by taking more “easy” completions. Six completions a game, in fact, should be there for the taking, because that’s what the average starting QB is getting.

IN film study, you can see that defenses are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, or the corners bailing off. The Bills offensive staff led by coordinator Brian Daboll can help him out by taking what the defense gives them in way of verticals.

The Bills did not try to be a horizontal, possession-passing offense for most of 2018. That’s not necessarily best suited to a rookie quarterback. Allen’s big arm is a deep-passing threat to the defense, and the emergence of Robert Foster helped the deep passing game improve the second half of the season.

In college, Josh Allen didn’t have a lot of the checkdown throws. Now, some of that is maturity on his part, which he understands. It’s finding those outlets when it’s not there downfield. That’s just part of the growth process.

The Bills love his aggressiveness. He thinks he can make any throw, and he can physically, but sometimes that’s not the smart play. I think that’s what Josh is learning. That’s natural. He’s so competitive that he wants to pick up that first down now, and sometimes it’s OK to take the swing pass for 5 yards and get it to second and 5, instead of a harder throw 18 yards down the field in a tight window that has a 50-50 chance and now it’s second and 10.

The Bills, in fact, had the fourth-fewest pass attempts overall in 2018 on throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Bills averaged 14.8 a game. Pittsburgh led at 23.7 a game.

There are other offenses that do check it down a lot and it really boosts those guys’ completion percentages. That’s not been the Bills plan to this point, but look for that to evolve more this coming season,

Of course, winning and scoring is the mission of an offense, not leading the league in short passing – or dinking and dunking. Only one of the top eight QBs who completed the most passes under 10 yards (Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck) made the playoffs.

But six other playoff QBs, including Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and New England’s Tom Brady, ranked between ninth and 16th. Brees completed 18.2 a game, Brady 17.3 and Mahomes 16.9.

The ability to work the short passing game only opens up other areas of the offense, so it has an impact of the offenses’ ability to score points.

The first order of business for Allen is to begin the process of refining his footwork and throwing technique. His feet are often undisciplined and too wide. This creates an ‘overstrided’ position, which prevents his hips from getting over his front knee, resulting in high, all upper-body throws. This overstrided position at times makes him a ‘low-elbow’ thrower.

Allen’s accuracy percentage was a league-low 33 percent on “underneath” throws. Those are specific routes defined as longer than screens and swing passes but shorter than intermediate crossing routes in which the receiver needs to be led with the pass. And that 33 percent isn’t the actual completion percentage, it’s the rate of accurately delivered balls, essentially into the frame of the receiver. Only two other QBs were under 50 percent on such passes (both Eagles QBs, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles).

On the plus side, Allen’s accuracy percentage on “stick routes,” essentially intermediate routes, on a line with the receiver facing the QB, was 71 percent.

That was better than the league average of 68 percent. Another indication of the need to improve the Bills’ possession passing game is how long Allen held the ball (3.2 seconds on average) – the longest in the NFL. Of course, part of that figure stems from the fact Allen has more ability to extend plays than most QBs.

But when Allen got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, his completion percentage was 75.7 percent, near the league average of 78.6 (and adjusted for drops, throwaways, etc.) When Allen held the ball 2.6 seconds or more, his completion percentage was second worst in the league, at 53.5 percent (with the league average at 68.9).

Improving the receiving corps by getting a couple more players who are good at getting quick separation from defenders will be one thing the Bills can do to improve their short passing game.

Another year of experience for Allen should help, too. A big part of getting good at hitting checkdowns is recognizing very early in the down that the underneath pass is the best option. That early recognition, something veterans like Brees and Brady have mastered, increases completion rates and maximizes yards after catch.

 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/13/2019 at 1:37 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

He has an accuracy problem in the same manner all the other rookies do.

 

Strive for 100% accuracy. That'd be wonderful.

 

But considering Allen and all the other rookie QBs hover somewhere around 80% as far as throwing balls that can be caught, McBeane will and should be much more worried about upgrading the talent surrounding Allen to help his completion percentage go up than Allen himself putting in the work, which he started doing right after the season ended when he went out to Cali to work with Jordan Palmer again.

 

 

Yes, correct, he has an accuracy problem in the same manner as all the other rookies do.

 

But worse, as pointed out in this article and plenty of others. He could improve if his mechanics can be improved. I'm hopeful, myself.

 

And you keep conflating accuracy as "balls that can be caught," which is just as false a comparison as saying it's equal to completion percentage. It's equal to neither.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Thurman#1