Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Man I'm excited to see how much he improves from Year 1 to Year 2. I'm hoping for a big jump.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-completion-percentage-analysis-2019/

 

Excerpts to come:

"Josh Allen has a lot of low-hanging fruit to grab in his quest for better accuracy in the NFL. Allen completed an NFL-low 10.1 passes per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2018. The league average for the 32 starting quarterbacks was 16.5 completions per game on "short passes," within 10 yards of the line, according to an analysis of data from Pro Football Focus.

 

"Allen also had the lowest completion percentage on short passes. The Bills rookie completed 75 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line, which isn’t quite as good as it sounds. The league average for starting QBs was 81 percent."

 

"Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll acknowledged at the end of the season that Allen needs to hit his checkdowns better. 'People are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, the corners bailing off,' the Bills’ offensive coordinator said. 'I think we can help ourselves, too, by taking what they give us on some of those verticals.'

 

I've said since before the draft, that Allen as an NFL QB will ultimately succeed or fail based upon his ability to hit the short passes - an aspect of his game that was notable as a limitation pre-draft.  It's the NFL equivalent of an NBA player who can hit the 3 pointer but can't make a layup reliably.  There might be a player of that description who becomes great, but rare...

 

1 hour ago, costrovs said:

Who cares?? Honestly.... Do people want Josh to check-down more to make his accuracy % higher?? Do people want him to throw it to the RB at the line of scrimmage, or 2-3 yards beyond it just to get tackled right when the RB catches the ball? We've seen it too many times being a bills fan. Tyrod or whoever throws check-downs to the RB near the sideline, who are either behind/on/ or 1-2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, just to get tackled for no gain or a loss on the play. I've seen Allen look to his check-down multiple times a game, but not throw to him even though he's wide open, then watch Allen throw the long ball, or run with it. I rather he take a chance throwing it down field or running than dumping it off to the running back for little gain.

 

You keep doing you, Mr. Josh " No Check-down" Allen

 

No, I want Josh to check-down more because a successful NFL QB needs to be able to take what the D gives him and move the chains.  An accurate checkdown that enables YAC can reliably get 3-4 yds.  That potentially moves the chains and keeps the O on the field.  

[dakrider]

For most Quarterbacks, what it all comes down to is making the correct decision on each play.  Sometimes thats hitting the guy for a 3 yard gain and sometimes it means throwing to a guy 30 yards downfield, or running for the first down.  The big things Allen needs to improve on, like most rookies, is getting a better read of defenses and making a quicker decision.  And these two things go together.  Make the best decision in the 2.5 second range and execute, and sometimes extend the play when you don't have anything.  Take a little more of what the defense give you.  These things will lead to better completion percentages and more first downs, TOP and scoring.  

[Shaw66]

Hey Thurm, thanks for posting this.   I think Gaughn does consistently good work, and this piece (I've only read the excerpts you posted) is another example.   

 

I have an inherent distrust of PFF, because it's amateurs analyzing the game.   I think they generate "data" that isn't necessarily relevant to anything.  But I have to admit, the more they do it and think about what they're doing, and the more they talk to actual coaches to validate their thinking, the better they'll get.  And when their data agrees with what coaches (in this case Daboll) say, I trust it more.   When it's also consistent with what I understand to be good football, I trust it even more. 

 

I've been saying some of the same things in the thread about Allen's real or imagined accuracy issues.  I'm coming to understand why the passer rating is actually a better stat than a lot of people think.   I've noticed and written for years about the fact that the passer rating corresponds well with winning - the people we understand to be the best and the winningest QBs tend to have the highest passer rating.   Some people complain and say the passer rating overrates completion percentage and INTs compared to yards and TDs, but it's becoming clearer to me that it doesn't.   Here's why:

 

In a sense, football never changes.   The reason Belichick is so successful is that he's never lost sight of the fundamentals of the game.   Physical toughness and teamwork wins games.   In terms of strategy, ball control wins games.  If you possess the ball for 60 minutes, you can't lose.   The more you have the ball compared to your opponent, the better your chances of winning.   Yes, the explosive offense can beat you with explosive plays, but if you control the ball you can FORCE your opponent to go for the explosive plays, and if you know they're coming you can prepare for them.   That's exactly what Belichick does.   

 

The great coaches do not lose sight of these fundamentals.   In particular, Bill Walsh didn't.   He understood before everyone else that passing was important to the modern game, not because it produce big plays but because it could be a more important of a ball control offense than running.  In the 50s it was tough to complete 50% of your passes, so the dominant offenses pounded the ball with Jim Brown, Jim Taylor and others.  But by the 80s, rules had changed and strategies had evolved so that completing over 50% was a lot easier.   Don Coryell took those changes as an opportunity to bomb away, and he created an explosive offense.  But that approach runs against ball control principles that are fundamental to the game, and Walsh had the better idea:  use the evolution of the passing game and the rule changes to enhance ball control. 

 

Walsh started a trend that continues today.   Now completion percentages are up over 65% - 19 QBs were over 65% in 2018.   In 2000, Kurt Warner was the only passer over 65%.   Why is that trend so dramatic?   Because the coaches have figured out that being successful on a high percentage of plays is more important than having big successes on some plays.   In other words, the coaches have figured out that high completion percentage wins.   All the best modern QBs have high passer ratings and high completion percentages.  The only QBs from earlier eras that rate high in both completion percentage and passer rating are Chad Pennington (under appreciated and crippled by injuries) and Joe Montana and Steve Young, the two QBs who played for the coach (Walsh) who figured this out before everyone else.  

 

So bring it back to Allen.   I think you're foolish to buck history.   Sure, it sounds like fun to have Allen bomb away like Dan Fouts, and if you're really good at it like Fouts was, you'll do some damage.   What history and the present day tell us is that your chances of WINNING are better if you complete a high percentage of passes and take the down-field ball when the defense gives it to you.   Why, because holding onto the football correlates well with winning.   Bills fans of all people should understand this, because the Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV by holding onto the football.  That approach tends to neutralize big-play offenses, and that's what won in Tampa.  

 

So, I'm glad that the message to Allen is that he's got to complete more balls, a lot more balls, to his underneath receivers.   When he learns to do that and do it effectively, he's going to be a spectacular weapon.   I said this the other day and no one really came back and challenged me about it:  can you imagine Allen getting good at taking the easy throw when it's there?   Just ask yourself this:  if Josh Allen gets as good at taking the easy underneath throw as Tom Brady, when the time comes to take the deep shot, would you rather have Tom Brady or Josh Allen taking it?  Imagine that - that's why I think Allen can be a spectacular weapon.  

 

I'm guessing this off-season, OTAs and training camp for Allen are going to be all about completing the short ball.  

5 minutes ago, dakrider said:

For most Quarterbacks, what it all comes down to is making the correct decision on each play.  Sometimes thats hitting the guy for a 3 yard gain and sometimes it means throwing to a guy 30 yards downfield, or running for the first down.  The big things Allen needs to improve on, like most rookies, is getting a better read of defenses and making a quicker decision.  And these two things go together.  Make the best decision in the 2.5 second range and execute, and sometimes extend the play when you don't have anything.  Take a little more of what the defense give you.  These things will lead to better completion percentages and more first downs, TOP and scoring.  

That's well said.  What people need to understand is that the best decision, from a strategic point of view, is throwing the short ball more often than some fans might like.  The coaches are trying to teach Allen that the best decisions are the ones that lead to the most completions, not the most yards.  

[oldmanfan]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey Thurm, thanks for posting this.   I think Gaughn does consistently good work, and this piece (I've only read the excerpts you posted) is another example.   

 

I have an inherent distrust of PFF, because it's amateurs analyzing the game.   I think they generate "data" that isn't necessarily relevant to anything.  But I have to admit, the more they do it and think about what they're doing, and the more they talk to actual coaches to validate their thinking, the better they'll get.  And when their data agrees with what coaches (in this case Daboll) say, I trust it more.   When it's also consistent with what I understand to be good football, I trust it even more. 

 

I've been saying some of the same things in the thread about Allen's real or imagined accuracy issues.  I'm coming to understand why the passer rating is actually a better stat than a lot of people think.   I've noticed and written for years about the fact that the passer rating corresponds well with winning - the people we understand to be the best and the winningest QBs tend to have the highest passer rating.   Some people complain and say the passer rating overrates completion percentage and INTs compared to yards and TDs, but it's becoming clearer to me that it doesn't.   Here's why:

 

In a sense, football never changes.   The reason Belichick is so successful is that he's never lost sight of the fundamentals of the game.   Physical toughness and teamwork wins games.   In terms of strategy, ball control wins games.  If you possess the ball for 60 minutes, you can't lose.   The more you have the ball compared to your opponent, the better your chances of winning.   Yes, the explosive offense can beat you with explosive plays, but if you control the ball you can FORCE your opponent to go for the explosive plays, and if you know they're coming you can prepare for them.   That's exactly what Belichick does.   

 

The great coaches do not lose sight of these fundamentals.   In particular, Bill Walsh didn't.   He understood before everyone else that passing was important to the modern game, not because it produce big plays but because it could be a more important of a ball control offense than running.  In the 50s it was tough to complete 50% of your passes, so the dominant offenses pounded the ball with Jim Brown, Jim Taylor and others.  But by the 80s, rules had changed and strategies had evolved so that completing over 50% was a lot easier.   Don Coryell took those changes as an opportunity to bomb away, and he created an explosive offense.  But that approach runs against ball control principles that are fundamental to the game, and Walsh had the better idea:  use the evolution of the passing game and the rule changes to enhance ball control. 

 

Walsh started a trend that continues today.   Now completion percentages are up over 65% - 19 QBs were over 65% in 2018.   In 2000, Kurt Warner was the only passer over 65%.   Why is that trend so dramatic?   Because the coaches have figured out that being successful on a high percentage of plays is more important than having big successes on some plays.   In other words, the coaches have figured out that high completion percentage wins.   All the best modern QBs have high passer ratings and high completion percentages.  The only QBs from earlier eras that rate high in both completion percentage and passer rating are Chad Pennington (under appreciated and crippled by injuries) and Joe Montana and Steve Young, the two QBs who played for the coach (Walsh) who figured this out before everyone else.  

 

So bring it back to Allen.   I think you're foolish to buck history.   Sure, it sounds like fun to have Allen bomb away like Dan Fouts, and if you're really good at it like Fouts was, you'll do some damage.   What history and the present day tell us is that your chances of WINNING are better if you complete a high percentage of passes and take the down-field ball when the defense gives it to you.   Why, because holding onto the football correlates well with winning.   Bills fans of all people should understand this, because the Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV by holding onto the football.  That approach tends to neutralize big-play offenses, and that's what won in Tampa.  

 

So, I'm glad that the message to Allen is that he's got to complete more balls, a lot more balls, to his underneath receivers.   When he learns to do that and do it effectively, he's going to be a spectacular weapon.   I said this the other day and no one really came back and challenged me about it:  can you imagine Allen getting good at taking the easy throw when it's there?   Just ask yourself this:  if Josh Allen gets as good at taking the easy underneath throw as Tom Brady, when the time comes to take the deep shot, would you rather have Tom Brady or Josh Allen taking it?  Imagine that - that's why I think Allen can be a spectacular weapon.  

 

I'm guessing this off-season, OTAs and training camp for Allen are going to be all about completing the short ball.  

That's well said.  What people need to understand is that the best decision, from a strategic point of view, is throwing the short ball more often than some fans might like.  The coaches are trying to teach Allen that the best decisions are the ones that lead to the most completions, not the most yards.  

Well said Shaw

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, eball said:

You can teach a risk taker to limit risks.  It's extremely difficult to teach a "play it safe" QB to take more chances.

 

See:  Trentative Checkwards, Tyrod Taylor

 

This.

 

For years we have had QB's simply incapable of pushing the ball past the sticks, so this is not a terrible problem to have. I would not lump Fitz in with this, but he did not have the arm or ability to extend plays that Allen does.

 

I am not getting defensive as I think checking down is a muscle Allen has not exercised too much, and there is certainly some truth to that assessment that many of us have noted. NE had their corners play off our WRs betting that Allen would wait for receivers to get open beyond the sticks - basically Allen's tendencies allowed them to divest their coverage responsibilities underneath and simply pick up our receivers beyond the sticks. That is a good defensive advantage and worked well to put Allen under duress and take him out of his game.

 

With stats you really have to have a clear idea of all the variables. Like holding the ball longer equating to less completions - do those entail avoiding a rush and being forced to find a way to extend a play as those passes would certainly be throws under duress. Also with admittedly less throws being made short of the sticks it takes fewer incompletions to drive down the percentages. A QB who checks down 15 times and has 2 drops and a miss, vs a QB who checks down 4 times and has 2 drops and a miss.

 

Either way, I have not read the article yet and would like to see if there is anything new there that we have not already put under the microscope here on the Wall, and it is good to hear Daboll echo the observations that many of us have made dissecting Allen's play.

Edited February 11, 2019 by WideNine

[John from Riverside]

It will be important for him to improve here not that NFL defenses have tape on him and will try to take away his deep ball and running abililty

 

If he can do it and get him some decent protection and targets....he is gonna be a beast

[WideNine]

43 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

It will be important for him to improve here not that NFL defenses have tape on him and will try to take away his deep ball and running abililty

 

If he can do it and get him some decent protection and targets....he is gonna be a beast

 

The article did explain things pretty well and aligns with the voices of reason here.

 

A few of us have noted that anticipation is more the issue on the underneath routes than simple inaccuracy; Knowing where your easy short completions are allows a QB to set and throw correctly. That seems to be born out by the fact that Josh has a decent completion percentage beyond the sticks where his anticipation and footwork can align. I think we will see him trending in the right direction next year when he starts recognizing defenses that are cheating to take away the deep hits and begins to take advantage of the low-hanging fruit.

 

That being said, he will always be a player that if he expects single coverage and likes the match-up deep, he is going to let it rip... just needs to find the balance in his game.

 

Edited February 11, 2019 by WideNine

[Logic]

I am soooooo much happier trying to teach an aggressive QB to take the checkdown than I am trying to teach a timid QB to take risks (*cough TrentAndEJ cough*)

[LSHMEAB]

I think he's got to work on taking something off the gimmies and placing them in a spot where the receiver can continue to run. The toss to Ivory was a perfect example of this and something that gave me more hope than any one play probably warrants. Maybe he needs a LB in his face to aid the touch.?

 

Also not surprised by the intermediate percentage. He's money on the 8-12 yard stick routes.

 

His success or failure will ultimately be determined by his ability to read/react and deliver on the underneath routes. As others have noted, this is likely going to be a focal point during the offseason.

[CincyBillsFan]

I think eball's previous post sums it up perfectly because it is easier to teach a gunslinger to check down then it is to teach a check down artist to sling it downfield.

 

I would also add that Buffalo's offensive skill players hardly made check down throws easy or productive.  Let's start at RB where an oft injured McCoy wasn't the impact receiving RB of years past.  Or we could consider the limited quality of the Bill's TE's - a position group that is often the target of check down passes, as being a factor in Allen's reluctance to check down his throws.  And with the exception of McKenzie on occasion getting open underneath would anyone claim that the Bill's receivers as a group were able to quickly get separation?  I wouldn't.

 

Or how about down & distance and it's impact on the willingness to take the short throws.  We seemed to have a lot of false starts putting us in 1st & 15 then throw in an anemic running game that had way to many lost yardage plays or our numerous holding penalty's and Allen was facing way to many 2nd & 3rd and long.  And with the Bills personnel you don't convert a whole lot of 3rd & 12's throwing the ball 5 yards to a back.  

 

So yes Allen must improve his short passing game and he must become comfortable with taking the check down pass on occasion.  But if we really want to see a PRODUCTIVE short passing game it's not the QB that needs fixing IMO but the skill players around him.  Take Cam Newton for example.  Never one to check down his throws Carolina went and got him a new weapon named Christian McCaffrey and all of a sudden Cam is throwing underneath all the time.  So why did Newton change?  It wasn't because he wanted to "improve" his completion % as I doubt he gives a rats ass about that stat.  But what Cam saw was that those little 5 yard dump offs to CMAC on 2nd 15 resulted in a lot of 1st downs or at worst 3rd and shorts.   It was CMACS production after catching that check down pass that convinced newton it was a smart throw to make. 

[WideNine]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think eball's previous post sums it up perfectly because it is easier to teach a gunslinger to check down then it is to teach a check down artist to sling it downfield.

 

I would also add that Buffalo's offensive skill players hardly made check down throws easy or productive.  Let's start at RB where an oft injured McCoy wasn't the impact receiving RB of years past.  Or we could consider the limited quality of the Bill's TE's - a position group that is often the target of check down passes, as being a factor in Allen's reluctance to check down his throws.  And with the exception of McKenzie on occasion getting open underneath would anyone claim that the Bill's receivers as a group were able to quickly get separation?  I wouldn't.

 

Or how about down & distance and it's impact on the willingness to take the short throws.  We seemed to have a lot of false starts putting us in 1st & 15 then throw in an anemic running game that had way to many lost yardage plays or our numerous holding penalty's and Allen was facing way to many 2nd & 3rd and long.  And with the Bills personnel you don't convert a whole lot of 3rd & 12's throwing the ball 5 yards to a back.  

 

So yes Allen must improve his short passing game and he must become comfortable with taking the check down pass on occasion.  But if we really want to see a PRODUCTIVE short passing game it's not the QB that needs fixing IMO but the skill players around him.  Take Cam Newton for example.  Never one to check down his throws Carolina went and got him a new weapon named Christian McCaffrey and all of a sudden Cam is throwing underneath all the time.  So why did Newton change?  It wasn't because he wanted to "improve" his completion % as I doubt he gives a rats ass about that stat.  But what Cam saw was that those little 5 yard dump offs to CMAC on 2nd 15 resulted in a lot of 1st downs or at worst 3rd and shorts.   It was CMACS production after catching that check down pass that convinced newton it was a smart throw to make. 

 

Having those play-makers underneath is certainly part of the equation - as many of us hope the Bills pick up a TE with great hands for just that reason.

 

I also think in Josh's case, looking at his limited experience at the position, it is easier for him to diagnose coverage on the deeper routes as they take more time to develop. The underneath throws requires a lot more pre-snap understanding of defensive coverage and where your open options are going to be. That kind of understanding can only come with more time behind center.

[oldmanfan]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey Thurm, thanks for posting this.   I think Gaughn does consistently good work, and this piece (I've only read the excerpts you posted) is another example.   

 

I have an inherent distrust of PFF, because it's amateurs analyzing the game.   I think they generate "data" that isn't necessarily relevant to anything.  But I have to admit, the more they do it and think about what they're doing, and the more they talk to actual coaches to validate their thinking, the better they'll get.  And when their data agrees with what coaches (in this case Daboll) say, I trust it more.   When it's also consistent with what I understand to be good football, I trust it even more. 

 

I've been saying some of the same things in the thread about Allen's real or imagined accuracy issues.  I'm coming to understand why the passer rating is actually a better stat than a lot of people think.   I've noticed and written for years about the fact that the passer rating corresponds well with winning - the people we understand to be the best and the winningest QBs tend to have the highest passer rating.   Some people complain and say the passer rating overrates completion percentage and INTs compared to yards and TDs, but it's becoming clearer to me that it doesn't.   Here's why:

 

In a sense, football never changes.   The reason Belichick is so successful is that he's never lost sight of the fundamentals of the game.   Physical toughness and teamwork wins games.   In terms of strategy, ball control wins games.  If you possess the ball for 60 minutes, you can't lose.   The more you have the ball compared to your opponent, the better your chances of winning.   Yes, the explosive offense can beat you with explosive plays, but if you control the ball you can FORCE your opponent to go for the explosive plays, and if you know they're coming you can prepare for them.   That's exactly what Belichick does.   

 

The great coaches do not lose sight of these fundamentals.   In particular, Bill Walsh didn't.   He understood before everyone else that passing was important to the modern game, not because it produce big plays but because it could be a more important of a ball control offense than running.  In the 50s it was tough to complete 50% of your passes, so the dominant offenses pounded the ball with Jim Brown, Jim Taylor and others.  But by the 80s, rules had changed and strategies had evolved so that completing over 50% was a lot easier.   Don Coryell took those changes as an opportunity to bomb away, and he created an explosive offense.  But that approach runs against ball control principles that are fundamental to the game, and Walsh had the better idea:  use the evolution of the passing game and the rule changes to enhance ball control. 

 

Walsh started a trend that continues today.   Now completion percentages are up over 65% - 19 QBs were over 65% in 2018.   In 2000, Kurt Warner was the only passer over 65%.   Why is that trend so dramatic?   Because the coaches have figured out that being successful on a high percentage of plays is more important than having big successes on some plays.   In other words, the coaches have figured out that high completion percentage wins.   All the best modern QBs have high passer ratings and high completion percentages.  The only QBs from earlier eras that rate high in both completion percentage and passer rating are Chad Pennington (under appreciated and crippled by injuries) and Joe Montana and Steve Young, the two QBs who played for the coach (Walsh) who figured this out before everyone else.  

 

So bring it back to Allen.   I think you're foolish to buck history.   Sure, it sounds like fun to have Allen bomb away like Dan Fouts, and if you're really good at it like Fouts was, you'll do some damage.   What history and the present day tell us is that your chances of WINNING are better if you complete a high percentage of passes and take the down-field ball when the defense gives it to you.   Why, because holding onto the football correlates well with winning.   Bills fans of all people should understand this, because the Giants beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV by holding onto the football.  That approach tends to neutralize big-play offenses, and that's what won in Tampa.  

 

So, I'm glad that the message to Allen is that he's got to complete more balls, a lot more balls, to his underneath receivers.   When he learns to do that and do it effectively, he's going to be a spectacular weapon.   I said this the other day and no one really came back and challenged me about it:  can you imagine Allen getting good at taking the easy throw when it's there?   Just ask yourself this:  if Josh Allen gets as good at taking the easy underneath throw as Tom Brady, when the time comes to take the deep shot, would you rather have Tom Brady or Josh Allen taking it?  Imagine that - that's why I think Allen can be a spectacular weapon.  

 

I'm guessing this off-season, OTAs and training camp for Allen are going to be all about completing the short ball.  

That's well said.  What people need to understand is that the best decision, from a strategic point of view, is throwing the short ball more often than some fans might like.  The coaches are trying to teach Allen that the best decisions are the ones that lead to the most completions, not the most yards.  

Well said Shaw

[Wagon Circler]

The kid's refusal to check it down on third down was refreshing. His reluctance to EVER check it down was alarming. The anti-Trent.

[Foxx]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-completion-percentage-analysis-2019/

 

 

Excerpts to come:...

good read, Thum. thanks.

[BillyWhiteShows]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-completion-percentage-analysis-2019/

 

 

Excerpts to come:

 

"Josh Allen has a lot of low-hanging fruit to grab in his quest for better accuracy in the NFL. Allen completed an NFL-low 10.1 passes per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2018. The league average for the 32 starting quarterbacks was 16.5 completions per game on "short passes," within 10 yards of the line, according to an analysis of data from Pro Football Focus.

 

"Allen also had the lowest completion percentage on short passes. The Bills rookie completed 75 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line, which isn’t quite as good as it sounds. The league average for starting QBs was 81 percent."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll acknowledged at the end of the season that Allen needs to hit his checkdowns better. 'People are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, the corners bailing off,' the Bills’ offensive coordinator said. 'I think we can help ourselves, too, by taking what they give us on some of those verticals.'

 

"The Bills did not try to be a horizontal, possession-passing offense for most of 2018. That’s not necessarily best suited to a rookie quarterback. Allen’s big arm is a deep-passing threat to the defense, and the emergence of Robert Foster helped the deep passing game improve the second half of the season."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"In an annual study by PFF, Allen’s 'accuracy percentage' was a league-low 33 percent on 'underneath' throws. Those are specific routes defined as longer than screens and swing passes but shorter than intermediate crossing routes in which the receiver needs to be led with the pass. And that 33 percent isn’t the actual completion percentage, it’s the rate of accurately delivered balls, essentially into the frame of the receiver. Only two other QBs were under 50 percent on such passes (both Eagles QBs, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles).

 

"On the plus side, Allen’s accuracy percentage on “stick routes,” essentially intermediate routes, on a line with the receiver facing the QB, was 71 percent, according to PFF. That was better than the league average of 68 percent.

 

"Another indication of the need to improve the Bills’ possession passing game is how long Allen held the ball (3.2 seconds on average) – the longest in the NFL, according to PFF. Of course, part of that figure stems from the fact Allen has more ability to extend plays than most QBs.

 

"But when Allen got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, his completion percentage was 75.7 percent, near the league average of 78.6 (and adjusted for drops, throwaways, etc.) When Allen held the ball 2.6 seconds or more, his completion percentage was second worst in the league, at 53.5 percent (with the league average at 68.9)."

 

 

 

 

There's a bunch more in the article, including mentions of footwork and throwing technique mechanics he needs to work on.

 

The numbers are interesting. Clearly he's got accuracy issues, which we're all aware of. But it's interesting to see that two specific areas where it turns up are specifically what PFF calls "underneath throws" and throws where he held the ball longer.

 

Gaughan of course mentions that another year of experience should help and that improving the receiving corps may also help.

 

Didnt he do a better job toward the last few games of the season?

[C.Biscuit97]

It seems like it should be easy but I feel like it’s tougher than it appears.  It requires a lot more reading of progressions. 

2 hours ago, Wagon Circler said:

The kid's refusal to check it down on third down was refreshing. His reluctance to EVER check it down was alarming. The anti-Trent.

But the opposite of this is Tom Brady, possibly the best qb ever, loves the checkdown. 

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, Wagon Circler said:

The kid's refusal to check it down on third down was refreshing. His reluctance to EVER check it down was alarming. The anti-Trent.

All I know is on 3rd and forever....for the first time in a long time I had a glimmer of hope that we could convert it......

 

Till of course some OL penalty would bring back a perfect Josh Allen strike down the field

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

All I know is on 3rd and forever....for the first time in a long time I had a glimmer of hope that we could convert it......

 

Till of course some OL penalty would bring back a perfect Josh Allen strike down the field

 

There are times when the check down is not the answer.

 

3rd and long then throwing it 5 yards short of the sticks (unless you setup a great screen or a good pick on a drag route) will likely net you a slightly better place to punt from.

 

There are things to like about a QB who can push it down the field when needed, but on those early downs if defenses are playing off your receivers, you have to be able to make them pay.

 

Great read BTW if I did not credit the OP.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I'd much rather him throw the ball deep first and have to learn to check it down than the other way araound like Tyrod and Captain Checkdown Edwards...

 

...with an arm like his, finesse will have to become a learned trait.....it may take time, but he'll master "the touch".....