Gaughan: Analysis: Josh Allen Has More Short Completions for the Taking

[Thurman#1]

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-completion-percentage-analysis-2019/

 

 

Excerpts to come:

 

"Josh Allen has a lot of low-hanging fruit to grab in his quest for better accuracy in the NFL. Allen completed an NFL-low 10.1 passes per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2018. The league average for the 32 starting quarterbacks was 16.5 completions per game on "short passes," within 10 yards of the line, according to an analysis of data from Pro Football Focus.

 

"Allen also had the lowest completion percentage on short passes. The Bills rookie completed 75 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line, which isn’t quite as good as it sounds. The league average for starting QBs was 81 percent."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll acknowledged at the end of the season that Allen needs to hit his checkdowns better. 'People are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, the corners bailing off,' the Bills’ offensive coordinator said. 'I think we can help ourselves, too, by taking what they give us on some of those verticals.'

 

"The Bills did not try to be a horizontal, possession-passing offense for most of 2018. That’s not necessarily best suited to a rookie quarterback. Allen’s big arm is a deep-passing threat to the defense, and the emergence of Robert Foster helped the deep passing game improve the second half of the season."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"In an annual study by PFF, Allen’s 'accuracy percentage' was a league-low 33 percent on 'underneath' throws. Those are specific routes defined as longer than screens and swing passes but shorter than intermediate crossing routes in which the receiver needs to be led with the pass. And that 33 percent isn’t the actual completion percentage, it’s the rate of accurately delivered balls, essentially into the frame of the receiver. Only two other QBs were under 50 percent on such passes (both Eagles QBs, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles).

 

"On the plus side, Allen’s accuracy percentage on “stick routes,” essentially intermediate routes, on a line with the receiver facing the QB, was 71 percent, according to PFF. That was better than the league average of 68 percent.

 

"Another indication of the need to improve the Bills’ possession passing game is how long Allen held the ball (3.2 seconds on average) – the longest in the NFL, according to PFF. Of course, part of that figure stems from the fact Allen has more ability to extend plays than most QBs.

 

"But when Allen got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, his completion percentage was 75.7 percent, near the league average of 78.6 (and adjusted for drops, throwaways, etc.) When Allen held the ball 2.6 seconds or more, his completion percentage was second worst in the league, at 53.5 percent (with the league average at 68.9)."

 

 

 

 

There's a bunch more in the article, including mentions of footwork and throwing technique mechanics he needs to work on.

 

The numbers are interesting. Clearly he's got accuracy issues, which we're all aware of. But it's interesting to see that two specific areas where it turns up are specifically what PFF calls "underneath throws" and throws where he held the ball longer.

 

Gaughan of course mentions that another year of experience should help and that improving the receiving corps may also help.

Edited February 11, 2019 by Thurman#1

[eball]

Nothing surprising here.  Lots of stuff for Allen to work on, as most have said.  Now, if you believe he's incapable of doing this stuff that's another story, but I certainly don't.

[H2o]

This makes me think of his Wyoming coach talking about Josh while in a practice. He said there was a play they were running and Josh was supposed to throw the ball to the RB in the flat. He proceeds to unleash a 60 yard bomb. The coach says, "Josh, the play was supposed to go to the RB in the flat." Josh says, "Coach, Favre says Touchdowns first."

 

Josh is always looking for the big play. Once he reels that in a little bit and adds that balance then he will be tough to handle. 

[Ramza86]

Learning to take what the defense gives will be a process for him. 

 

Ball placement within 5 yards is not a strong suit for him right now. 

[Bring it]

48 minutes ago, eball said:

Nothing surprising here.  Lots of stuff for Allen to work on, as most have said.  Now, if you believe he's incapable of doing this stuff that's another story, but I certainly don't.

I certainly think Josh can improve in the short game. I don’t recall him doing a lot of it at Wyoming. Don’t know about Reedley College. His accuracy issues are almost all footwork and repetition!

[richardb1952]

I like the fact he is always pushing the ball down field.  He needs to learn though that short passes would put even more pressure on the defense and actually increase the probability of longer routes being open as the game progresses.  Bills have had too many check down QBs in past and they become easier to defend.  Allens ability to run and the long ball threat really pressures defenses.  With improved running game and some shorter passes to further stress the defense, Dabol can put together an exciting and efficient offense with exciting big play potential.  I expect huge improvement from Allen this next year, part from better supporting cast,  part from scheme and part from the maturation progress on Allen and the rest of the team.

[Mickey]

Sure he needs to work on his accuracy but I have a feeling that if you fix the line, get the run game going again and find some real WR's that his accuracy across the board will magically improve. 

[Big Turk]

I'd much rather him throw the ball deep first and have to learn to check it down than the other way araound like Tyrod and Captain Checkdown Edwards...

[Jasovon]

He is the complete opposite of Trent Edwards, wouldnt mind seeing him complete the easy stuff more often though.

[costrovs]

Who cares?? Honestly.... Do people want Josh to check-down more to make his accuracy % higher?? Do people want him to throw it to the RB at the line of scrimmage, or 2-3 yards beyond it just to get tackled right when the RB catches the ball? We've seen it too many times being a bills fan. Tyrod or whoever throws check-downs to the RB near the sideline, who are either behind/on/ or 1-2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, just to get tackled for no gain or a loss on the play. I've seen Allen look to his check-down multiple times a game, but not throw to him even though he's wide open, then watch Allen throw the long ball, or run with it. I rather he take a chance throwing it down field or running than dumping it off to the running back for little gain.

 

You keep doing you, Mr. Josh " No Check-down" Allen

[One Buffalo]

12 minutes ago, Jasovon said:

He is the complete opposite of Trent Edwards, wouldnt mind seeing him complete the easy stuff more often though.

 

That's exactly my take... and as they refine and coach him, along with improved weapons around him, we will see some real offensive production around here.  

[MJS]

38 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I'd much rather him throw the ball deep first and have to learn to check it down than the other way araound like Tyrod and Captain Checkdown Edwards...

 

Exactly. That's why he is so promising.

[oldmanfan]

He doesn't necessarily have an accuracy issue, he has a completion percentage issue which will improve as he gets better at reading defenses and gets the ball out sooner.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Reading the article, the comment that surprised me the most was it listed Nick Foles as 6'6 and around 240 lbs.  Is that correct, or was it a mistake and was really referring to Wentz?  Didn't think foles was anywhere near that big.

[teef]

as i've mentioned before, i always felt he took too many deep chances on 3rd and manageable.  i'm not sure if there's stats to back that up, but far too often allen seemed to be going for the big play, even when not necessary.  there's work to do, but he certainly strikes me as a guy that will put in whatever work it takes.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

So, just to make sure, people want him to become a checkdown passer?

 

 

[eball]

You can teach a risk taker to limit risks.  It's extremely difficult to teach a "play it safe" QB to take more chances.

 

See:  Trentative Checkwards, Tyrod Taylor

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

44 minutes ago, costrovs said:

Who cares?? Honestly.... Do people want Josh to check-down more to make his accuracy % higher?? Do people want him to throw it to the RB at the line of scrimmage, or 2-3 yards beyond it just to get tackled right when the RB catches the ball? We've seen it too many times being a bills fan. Tyrod or whoever throws check-downs to the RB near the sideline, who are either behind/on/ or 1-2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, just to get tackled for no gain or a loss on the play. I've seen Allen look to his check-down multiple times a game, but not throw to him even though he's wide open, then watch Allen throw the long ball, or run with it. I rather he take a chance throwing it down field or running than dumping it off to the running back for little gain.

 

You keep doing you, Mr. Josh " No Check-down" Allen

 

The goal of an NFL offense should always be to use the whole field. As soon as you’ve shown you won’t do something, the defense doesn’t need to defend it. 

 

An offense that consistently throws behind the sticks and gets 6-7 yards per play with some RAC can win championships.  At least 5 or 6. 

[kevnallen]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/02/11/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-completion-percentage-analysis-2019/

 

 

Excerpts to come:

 

"Josh Allen has a lot of low-hanging fruit to grab in his quest for better accuracy in the NFL. Allen completed an NFL-low 10.1 passes per game within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in 2018. The league average for the 32 starting quarterbacks was 16.5 completions per game on "short passes," within 10 yards of the line, according to an analysis of data from Pro Football Focus.

 

"Allen also had the lowest completion percentage on short passes. The Bills rookie completed 75 percent of his throws within 10 yards of the line, which isn’t quite as good as it sounds. The league average for starting QBs was 81 percent."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll acknowledged at the end of the season that Allen needs to hit his checkdowns better. 'People are playing Josh a little bit different than they play some other people, whether it’s a deeper safety, the corners bailing off,' the Bills’ offensive coordinator said. 'I think we can help ourselves, too, by taking what they give us on some of those verticals.'

 

"The Bills did not try to be a horizontal, possession-passing offense for most of 2018. That’s not necessarily best suited to a rookie quarterback. Allen’s big arm is a deep-passing threat to the defense, and the emergence of Robert Foster helped the deep passing game improve the second half of the season."

 

 

... and ...

 

 

"In an annual study by PFF, Allen’s 'accuracy percentage' was a league-low 33 percent on 'underneath' throws. Those are specific routes defined as longer than screens and swing passes but shorter than intermediate crossing routes in which the receiver needs to be led with the pass. And that 33 percent isn’t the actual completion percentage, it’s the rate of accurately delivered balls, essentially into the frame of the receiver. Only two other QBs were under 50 percent on such passes (both Eagles QBs, Carson Wentz and Nick Foles).

 

"On the plus side, Allen’s accuracy percentage on “stick routes,” essentially intermediate routes, on a line with the receiver facing the QB, was 71 percent, according to PFF. That was better than the league average of 68 percent.

 

"Another indication of the need to improve the Bills’ possession passing game is how long Allen held the ball (3.2 seconds on average) – the longest in the NFL, according to PFF. Of course, part of that figure stems from the fact Allen has more ability to extend plays than most QBs.

 

"But when Allen got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, his completion percentage was 75.7 percent, near the league average of 78.6 (and adjusted for drops, throwaways, etc.) When Allen held the ball 2.6 seconds or more, his completion percentage was second worst in the league, at 53.5 percent (with the league average at 68.9)."

 

 

 

 

There's a bunch more in the article, including mentions of footwork and throwing technique mechanics he needs to work on.

 

The numbers are interesting. Clearly he's got accuracy issues, which we're all aware of. But it's interesting to see that two specific areas where it turns up are specifically what PFF calls "underneath throws" and throws where he held the ball longer.

 

Gaughan of course mentions that another year of experience should help and that improving the receiving corps may also help.

 

After having so many past QBs who checked down too often, I’m thrilled to have a QB who can stretch the field. Hopefully, he will get better at the shorter throws with experience and coaching. I think that he will be awesome as a play action QB if we can establish our running game.

[Gugny]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Mark Gaughan of the Buffalo News.

 

 

Is his last name pronounced "Gone?"