BADOLBILZ Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 6 hours ago, dave mcbride said: This topic comes up a lot, but I have to ask: why would Atlanta, even factoring in the contract squabbling, trade one of the best players in the league ( https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneJu02.htm ) when everyone knows that it's win now for them or else? I'd be extremely surprised if he's not playing for the Falcons next season. They won their last 4 games in 2018, and they were definitely better than their 7-9 record. Injuries in their secondary killed them. So you don't buy the Saints model? At a similar career point with Brees the Saints were dealing from strengths in their receiving corps and avoiding big contracts while re-building their OL and defense. The Falcons are already cap strapped with Julio on a bargain deal, their defense is in disarray and their best defensive player might be the top player to hit FA. They got reasons. I don't think they will be ballsy or innovative enough to pull off what the Saints did but I think the blueprint is there and while they want to win NOW they might not be in position to accomplish re-creating a SB team with their limited cap space and draft capital. I think Ryan could do a lot of the same stuff that he accomplishes now with Julio with complementary targets that Brees does with mostly nobodies after Thomas in that WR corps.
dave mcbride Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: So you don't buy the Saints model? At a similar career point with Brees the Saints were dealing from strengths in their receiving corps and avoiding big contracts while re-building their OL and defense. The Falcons are already cap strapped with Julio on a bargain deal, their defense is in disarray and their best defensive player might be the top player to hit FA. They got reasons. I don't think they will be ballsy or innovative enough to pull off what the Saints did but I think the blueprint is there and while they want to win NOW they might not be in position to accomplish re-creating a SB team with their limited cap space and draft capital. I think Ryan could do a lot of the same stuff that he accomplishes now with Julio with complementary targets that Brees does with mostly nobodies after Thomas in that WR corps. I definitely see your point, but the simple fact of the matter is that Julio is a significantly better player than all of those Saints players mentioned above and definitely a more committed “process” guy than the likes of Jimmy Graham (a life-long wretched blocker, btw). Edited February 6, 2019 by dave mcbride
Aussie Joe Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 13 hours ago, NoSaint said: I put the close of his window at 39-40 with that. It’s not like I stretched it wildly. He’s still a young guy by an standards. Well.. I was just going on him being 34 before the next season and then you saying he had another 6-7 years left... Not all these guys are going to want to play that long in my view.. I don't know enough about him personally to make a judgement either way, but I see that he has earnt nearly $200Mil in his career so maybe he only wants to play a few more years and enjoy the fruits of his labour.. I guess my point is that not all these guys are going to be as driven to keep going as Brady who seems relentless...
BADOLBILZ Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: I definitely see your point, but the simple fact of the matter is that Julio is a significantly better player than all of those Saints players mentioned above and definitely a more committed “process” guy than the likes of Jimmy Graham (a life-long wretched blocker, btw). It's easy to forget how valued Graham was with the Saints. He had 26 TD's in his last two seasons there and he and Brees were connected at the hip.......particularly late in close games. People were shocked by the trade and thought it was very risky for the Saints to take the great TE away from Brees. And while Julio is a great teammate perhaps the pressure to feed him the ball isn't ideal at this stage of Ryans career either. Maybe......also like Brees........a return to a more run heavy attack is better for their team. Remember Tyrod produced more combined TD's than Ryan did in 2017.........but that Falcons team won 10 games versus the more pass happy 2018 Falcons. I think there is a blueprint right in their own division about how to best support a veteran QB. By the same token, I think the blueprint for supporting a young QB is giving him playmakers so he can produce at a high level while still very much learning how to play the position. 1
Aussie Joe Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: It's easy to forget how valued Graham was with the Saints. He had 26 TD's in his last two seasons there and he and Brees were connected at the hip.......particularly late in close games. People were shocked by the trade and thought it was very risky for the Saints to take the great TE away from Brees. And while Julio is a great teammate perhaps the pressure to feed him the ball isn't ideal at this stage of Ryans career either. Maybe......also like Brees........a return to a more run heavy attack is better for their team. Remember Tyrod produced more combined TD's than Ryan did in 2017.........but that Falcons team won 10 games versus the more pass happy 2018 Falcons. I think there is a blueprint right in their own division about how to best support a veteran QB. By the same token, I think the blueprint for supporting a young QB is giving him playmakers so he can produce at a high level while still very much learning how to play the position. Appreciate this is all just speculation, and I suspect you like me don't really think he will be traded.. not this off season anyway.. I just checked up on the history of the Graham trade and saw that the Saints got a first rounder and a starting C (Max Unger) in return .. that's pretty nice compensation in my view... Would Atlanta get the same for Julio? There are people here speculating that a 2nd will get it done ( which I don't see mind you..) I'm sure all players are available to be traded at the right price... its whether the right price gets offered that tempts Atlanta... I also think that if the Falcons motivation is a means of creating cap space, then other options are available before they need to move on Julio..
NoSaint Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 52 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Well.. I was just going on him being 34 before the next season and then you saying he had another 6-7 years left... Not all these guys are going to want to play that long in my view.. I don't know enough about him personally to make a judgement either way, but I see that he has earnt nearly $200Mil in his career so maybe he only wants to play a few more years and enjoy the fruits of his labour.. I guess my point is that not all these guys are going to be as driven to keep going as Brady who seems relentless... With new league rules, improved medicine etc... 40 should be a pretty basic threshold to at least roughly hit. We will not he seeing franchise guys retire at 35 just cause they made enough money already except for the rarest exceptions. This 45 nonsense will not be for everyone though.
Aussie Joe Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, NoSaint said: With new league rules, improved medicine etc... 40 should be a pretty basic threshold to at least roughly hit. We will not he seeing franchise guys retire at 35 just cause they made enough money already except for the rarest exceptions. This 45 nonsense will not be for everyone though. Yes. agree that medical advances, better training and diets, and reduced physical workload ( not as many full impact training sessions as in prior years) will lead to longer player longevity.. I don't think we can just assume this though in relation to all or specific players.. . Too many variables, eg injuries, form and desire will play their part.. These guys don't come from a cookie cutter ..
Just Joshin' Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 Yes at the right price. Your scenario is not the right price nor will that trade occur.
NoSaint Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 39 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Yes. agree that medical advances, better training and diets, and reduced physical workload ( not as many full impact training sessions as in prior years) will lead to longer player longevity.. I don't think we can just assume this though in relation to all or specific players.. . Too many variables, eg injuries, form and desire will play their part.. These guys don't come from a cookie cutter .. Generally speaking though.... to be a franchise qb, you largely are carrying certain competitive traits that don’t lend themselves to hanging it up early just because. obviously injuries may change that. Likewise he could get hit by a bus tomorrow and really catapult Julio onto the market. But in the grand scheme I think it’s pretty darn safe to say Matt Ryan will have more than a couple years left. 1
LikeIGiveADarn Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) Bills: 9th 2019 3rd Atlanta 14th Julio Not giving up anything more for an oft injured receiver pushing 30 and a murky contract. Edited February 6, 2019 by LikeIGiveADarn
Aussie Joe Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Generally speaking though.... to be a franchise qb, you largely are carrying certain competitive traits that don’t lend themselves to hanging it up early just because. obviously injuries may change that. Likewise he could get hit by a bus tomorrow and really catapult Julio onto the market. But in the grand scheme I think it’s pretty darn safe to say Matt Ryan will have more than a couple years left. Lets revisit the situation in 2025.. Its all speculation until then... Wouldn't it be funny if Julio is still playing and Matty has retired.. Julio will only be as old as Larry Fitzgerald is now... 7 minutes ago, LikeIGiveADarn said: Bills: 9th 2018 3rd Atlanta 14th Julio Not giving up anything more for an oft injured receiver pushing 30 and a murky contract. He has two pretty cheap years left.... That's part of the reason you trade for him right?
NoSaint Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, LikeIGiveADarn said: Bills: 9th 2018 3rd Atlanta 14th Julio Not giving up anything more for an oft injured receiver pushing 30 and a murky contract. Hes missed 3 of his last 80 games while averaging like 100 catches a season over the stretch. Oft injured? Outside the foot injury, pretty durable truly. As for the contract- you’d assume there’d be an agreement in principal atleast before a trade. 4
Buffalo03 Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, LikeIGiveADarn said: Bills: 9th 2018 3rd Atlanta 14th Julio Not giving up anything more for an oft injured receiver pushing 30 and a murky contract. This is actually an interesting scenario. A swap of 2019 firsts and a 2019 3rd and maybe in throw in a 2020 3rd for Julio. I would actually like that a lot Edited February 6, 2019 by Buffalo03 1
NoSaint Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Lets revisit the situation in 2025.. Its all speculation until then... Wouldn't it be funny if Julio is still playing and Matty has retired.. Julio will only be as old as Larry Fitzgerald is now... He has two pretty cheap years left.... That's part of the reason you trade for him right? Distinctly possible. If you had to bet though I’m guessing you take the qb lasting longer than the wr. Though similarly the new rules benefit each lasting longer than predecessors did. 1
Bing Bong Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: True and the scoring in our league is PPR for WR 1 point for every 15 yards, so need TD's to rack up the points. There were many weeks he didn't make his projection. I also have Fornette, so need to decide between the two. Fornette had a terrible year, but will see if he does get cut/traded or they gear the offense around him. Haha weird scoring system. Not very Julio friendly. But.. definitely keep him I am in PPR 10 per. The TDs suck I always figure "he's due" Don't keep fournette. You have one of the top WRs coming off his 2nd best year. Edited February 6, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
mrags Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 (edited) On 2/4/2019 at 8:12 PM, Formerly Allan in MD said: Jones is no youngster. I'd pass. He only lead the league in yards last year. Yeah. Getting too old. Edited February 6, 2019 by mrags
formerlyofCtown Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/4/2019 at 7:08 PM, ndirish1978 said: Not just to get to 9, this is an exercise in futility scenario if I've ever seen one A second round pick to move into the top 10 is definitely not unreasonable. We gave up 2 of them last draft to make a similar move. 12 to 7
Thurman#1 Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 8:35 AM, John from Riverside said: Not at Jones age This.
BADOLBILZ Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 11 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Appreciate this is all just speculation, and I suspect you like me don't really think he will be traded.. not this off season anyway.. I just checked up on the history of the Graham trade and saw that the Saints got a first rounder and a starting C (Max Unger) in return .. that's pretty nice compensation in my view... Would Atlanta get the same for Julio? There are people here speculating that a 2nd will get it done ( which I don't see mind you..) I'm sure all players are available to be traded at the right price... its whether the right price gets offered that tempts Atlanta... I also think that if the Falcons motivation is a means of creating cap space, then other options are available before they need to move on Julio.. A second rounder ain't gonna' get it done.........nor will a 2019 second and a first in 2020, IMO. The 9th pick in this draft is worth a lot more than that. The 15th pick would probably be worth more too should the Bills trade back, but I don't think they could wait until draft day to swing the deal because a new contract for Julio will be a prerequisite for any trade to go thru. I think there is probably a 1 in 3 chance Jones is dealt..........it just makes a lot of sense versus stacking on another $30M or so in cap hits over the next 4 years.........it's not just about creating space now.........keeping him will require a significant additional investment in him. I think it's more likely that a team picking later in the first round would swing the deal and give them multiple picks for Julio.
dave mcbride Posted February 6, 2019 Posted February 6, 2019 12 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Appreciate this is all just speculation, and I suspect you like me don't really think he will be traded.. not this off season anyway.. I just checked up on the history of the Graham trade and saw that the Saints got a first rounder and a starting C (Max Unger) in return .. that's pretty nice compensation in my view... Would Atlanta get the same for Julio? There are people here speculating that a 2nd will get it done ( which I don't see mind you..) I'm sure all players are available to be traded at the right price... its whether the right price gets offered that tempts Atlanta... I also think that if the Falcons motivation is a means of creating cap space, then other options are available before they need to move on Julio.. Let's not forget either that Unger is a borderline elite center - first team all-pro once plus multiple pro bowls.
Recommended Posts