Turk71 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, teef said: is it me or are there a lot of overpaid tight ends? none more so than Clay I think, only Gronk Kelce and Reed had higher cap hits this year. Between McCoy being #1 rb hit and Clay #4 te the Bills paid a lot of money for practically nothing. Edited January 31, 2019 by Turk71 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwhit34 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I was disappointed that Vlad Ducasse didn't make the list with his $83k in dead cap hit. The author listed just about everyone that had a big cap number and/or a down year and/or is getting older. Enough will happen that will enable him to say "see I told you so". I'm mad I at myself for taking the time to check out the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 hours ago, billsfan89 said: Star might be overpaid for his style of play but its not like he isn't a productive player who has a role in the defense. The Bills rush defense was 16th in 2018, that's not bad but hardly enough to write home about except when you factor in the Bills were 29th in 2017. Star wasn't the only reason for the Bills improvement there but he was a major factor for the Bills considerable improvement. So yes is Star worth 11 million in 2019? No, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the defense. They will likely roll with Star this year but they need to find a much cheaper replacement.........preferably this season. He's never been a real playmaker, his role is obviously to tie up blockers but he's no stud in that regard and the little playmaking he used to consistently provide in Carolina ceased entirely in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Allen Robinson would be a good veteran WR and borderline #1 when healthy. Foster, Robinson, and Zay-draft offense and edge all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I guess I'll have to trust everyone who says he played well in the defense. I don't doubt it, but he was practically invisible to my eyes. Definitely not worth 11 million a year, I don't think, but hopefully he continues to do whatever it is he does at a high level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 7 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: They will not cut Lotulelei, nor should they. They vastly overpaid and he's not a great player by any stretch of the imagination, but he's serviceable. If they could go back in time, they may do things differently. As it stands right now, he'll be here for a couple seasons. Cap space is pretty irrelevant as it may be tough to even approach the number. I can tolerate him for 2 more years only as he does eat up double teams. He's never seeing his 4th or 5th years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBeane Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 The comments about Star completely ruined the entire article for me. Obviously the writer doesn't know how much Beane/McDermott value Star. So what dont they know about other teams?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) i don't see anyone on the "bubble" list that interests me. however, the free agent pool of defensive linemen is pretty deep. i could see the bills looking at a dt on a short term prove it deal. sheldon richardson and wilkerson are both on that list along with a bunch of others who could possibly tempt the bills to use shaq to maybe move around the draft and get an extra pick? i just don't see shaq doing anymore than he did this year. he is supposed to be an end but, i think he's better kicked inside with murphy and lorax on the end. i'd rather have richardson ( for example ) inside. in the case that they look to upgrade the dt spot, ( along with signing j. phillipps ), i'd like to see them trade down and draft montez sweat and then grab ximines later. those 2 egde guys could give us hughes and lorax replacements for the future. we need to really ramp up the pass rush this year. Edited January 31, 2019 by billsredneck1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 13 hours ago, billsfan89 said: Star might be overpaid for his style of play but its not like he isn't a productive player who has a role in the defense. The Bills rush defense was 16th in 2018, that's not bad but hardly enough to write home about except when you factor in the Bills were 29th in 2017. Star wasn't the only reason for the Bills improvement there but he was a major factor for the Bills considerable improvement. So yes is Star worth 11 million in 2019? No, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value to the defense. This is the way free agency works. If you stomp your feet and dig your heels in the ground as a GM, refusing to overpay for anyone - then you are going to get the scraps that nobody wants. We've had the GMs in the past who "took a nap" during the first round of free agency, and the complaining from people on this board was insufferable. Of course there needs to be a balance, and you can't just throw stupid money at everyone. You have to pick your spots, build the majority of your roster through the draft, and hope that your big signings don't turn into somebody completely worthless like Albert Haynesworth. The frustration is... some fans want the best of both worlds and criticize every move that our front office makes that doesn't live up to those standards. They complain and whine that our roster has holes and weak spots. They complain and whine that Beane didn't "address" certain positions. But when Beane addresses a position like DT and we see significant improvement in that area, they complain and whine that he wasn't able to sign that player for $2-3 million less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 6 hours ago, TheBeane said: The comments about Star completely ruined the entire article for me. Obviously the writer doesn't know how much Beane/McDermott value Star. So what dont they know about other teams?? Nobody has time to watch every player in the league. I'm convinced that 99% of websites out there are using the same source (Pro Football Focus) to rank players, which is why everyone seems to have the same negative opinion on Star Lotulelei. As I've said before, PFF grades are fun and interesting. But they have holes in their system, and some positions get a raw deal in their grading. When it comes defensive tackles, they expect everyone to play like a 3-Technique and be like Aaron Donald or Kyle Williams. But for some DTs, their job is not to penetrate into the backfield. Their job is not to push blockers aside, but to keep them from getting to the second level and reaching the linebackers. How does a PFF grader know the difference? The truth is, they don't. So they give high grades to the players who appear to be "beating" the guy in front of them, and give low grades to the players who appear to be in a stalemate and not going anywhere. Our coaching staff has not been shy calling out players who aren't performing. They have had nothing but praise for Star, and how well he's doing the job they signed him to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Comments about Star... His Dead cap is too high to release this year.. even next year is extremely unlikely.. No way do the Bills let him go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 17 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Comments about Star... His Dead cap is too high to release this year.. even next year is extremely unlikely.. "He's never going to be a big stat-guy, but a $10M cap charge for a guy who can stuff the run seems...OK." Comments are about Dareus, but make equal sense about Star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEpsYtown Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 I really like Michael Brockers and I think he would make for a nice 3 tech in our defense. I would also take on Allen Robinson. Bears save a ton of cap if they can trade him pre 3/15, so perhaps they would give him away in exchange for another team taking on the hit. Robinson is still somehow only 25 years old. I'd offer those teams late round picks to give them a chance at extra cap savings with a trade pre 3/15 rather than a release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, billsfan89 said: It is a hard contract to get out of until 2021 (in 2020 its a 7.8 million dollar cap hit, even post June first that would be 3.9 a season for 2 seasons.) And even in 2021 the cap penalty is 5 million although you could spread that over 2 seasons to ease it out if needed. I am not going to defend the contract as I think it was a massive overpay and might be an albatross once 2017 and 2018 draft guys need extensions. However for people to act like Star bring zero or negative value to the team is just flat out wrong. Star is a positive for the team and while I think you can find what he offers cheaper it is not as though what he offers isn't needed along the D-line. But if Star in 2019 and 2020 plays to the same level he did in 2018 I think the value he brings to the team will be enough to at least call the contract a productive overpay. And luckily D-line players tend to play well for longer than some other positions. Couldn't agree more with the perspective. He's added value up front and honestly, I haven't seen many DTs off the ball as quickly and as consistently as Star is. While he may not be establishing stat columns, or making eye test plays, his role in being the first off the ball to take up double teams and direct rushes makes him a valuable asset we yet to have anyone remotely adequate enough to replace him with, or scheme differently for. And I agree, I don't think the contract was foresighted well in any regard, but my hope is that he'd be willing to restructure down the line after 2020 and 2021 if we are looking to sign our key young guys back to the roster. It'd be a shame to see the likes of Tre, Milano, or Dawkins be let go because we were handicapped by any contracts. My hope is while it may be a difficult contract to get out of in any regard, maybe Star would be open to restructuring to accommodate the team's needs (however unlikely that may be). Edited January 31, 2019 by ctk232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turk71 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 16 hours ago, mjt328 said: Nobody has time to watch every player in the league. I'm convinced that 99% of websites out there are using the same source (Pro Football Focus) to rank players, which is why everyone seems to have the same negative opinion on Star Lotulelei. As I've said before, PFF grades are fun and interesting. But they have holes in their system, and some positions get a raw deal in their grading. When it comes defensive tackles, they expect everyone to play like a 3-Technique and be like Aaron Donald or Kyle Williams. But for some DTs, their job is not to penetrate into the backfield. Their job is not to push blockers aside, but to keep them from getting to the second level and reaching the linebackers. How does a PFF grader know the difference? The truth is, they don't. So they give high grades to the players who appear to be "beating" the guy in front of them, and give low grades to the players who appear to be in a stalemate and not going anywhere. Our coaching staff has not been shy calling out players who aren't performing. They have had nothing but praise for Star, and how well he's doing the job they signed him to do. I have seen a lot of comments about how a space eater like Star does not grade well on pff because his job is to occupy blockers. I don't know how pff grades dts but I do know that Star is not the only guy in the league to play one tech dt in a 4 man front. I also know that however they are grading these guys, Star has been at or near the bottom of these one tech dts the last couple years. Pff may or may not be any good; but if you look at their rankings of the different positions, the guys at the top and the guys at the bottom seem to make sense and align mostly with my own perceptions. That said, I think Star is definitely a Bill for a couple more years at least and I hope he plays his role well whether pff sees it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing Bong Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Man, spotrac is awesome. Wow.. I'd literally sign every bubble receiver available as far down as Cameron Meridith and draw the line there for recievers of various depth chart roles. I really like all those options! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing Bong Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 (edited) 18 hours ago, mjt328 said: Nobody has time to watch every player in the league. I'm convinced that 99% of websites out there are using the same source (Pro Football Focus) to rank players, which is why everyone seems to have the same negative opinion on Star Lotulelei. As I've said before, PFF grades are fun and interesting. But they have holes in their system, and some positions get a raw deal in their grading. When it comes defensive tackles, they expect everyone to play like a 3-Technique and be like Aaron Donald or Kyle Williams. But for some DTs, their job is not to penetrate into the backfield. Their job is not to push blockers aside, but to keep them from getting to the second level and reaching the linebackers. How does a PFF grader know the difference? The truth is, they don't. So they give high grades to the players who appear to be "beating" the guy in front of them, and give low grades to the players who appear to be in a stalemate and not going anywhere. Our coaching staff has not been shy calling out players who aren't performing. They have had nothing but praise for Star, and how well he's doing the job they signed him to do. My buddy volunteers for PFF because he's a major football nerd and literally does watch a single guard all 4 time slots in a week and measures that given guard's very specific plays such as how many yards he pushed a guy back on a running play, exactly how fast he pulled to his block, where he was positioned as the Quarterback threw the ball (to judge how he helped formed the pocket I guess), etc. You get it. And he's not even the only guy measuring that guard as there's multiple quantifiable stats to watch for on a play. And when there isn't, PFF is just gathering the same data from at lease 2 different sources to check errors (they "promote" guard guys to centers to RBs to the glorious QB PFF volunteer! They demote the bad ones to kickers lol or as the 5th crappy analyst for the same guard that's used with a grain of salt) And it's very idiot proof. I watched him do a game for the heck of it, and he's tasked with very simple metrics and types into some cloud software constantly that automates location, speed, and distance to help so he only punches in the few things needed that need to be seen. He does it for free, got promoted from RG to LG (second string of course). So apparently PFF has an absolute legion of these guys doing this for free, with overhead going to automated software developers and real analysts that find a way to compile the crapload of data (which I imagine aren't that many and automate as much as possible) It's boring as hell and we were drinking while we did it lol. But I'm pretty sure they have every player looked at every play, often by multiple people. The limitations are clearly quantifying football, and probably most valuable: the quality graders are making with the data they receive. But they have all the data in the world to analyze and come up with solutions to what you're saying. I too find it fascinating.. I mean it's basically my job to do the same thing for.... boring business crap: quantifying qualitative value. Heck PFF is my dream job to be honest. Think about solutions to the problem you mentioned; finding a player's role in a play. With every bit of data available you could possibly say Star gets pushed back less than a specific guard's average or has 2 OL recorded pushing Star back both less than their average push. To differentiate him from someone trying to blow up a play is tough.. figure out how far each OL went, which DL they came in contact with, the distance between the DL and the carrier at the beginning and end of play and you mitigate a handful of this. On a whole year's worth of plays with this data, I'd say you have an okay guestimate on aggregating Aaron Donald's penetrating his man yet missing the carrier or getting the carrier for a loss vs aggregating Star's push with OL and the need to differentiate role is mitigated by which result was more impactful. So basically you need the top $700,000 per year financial quants working for Goldman Sachs investment on PFF to really nail Star's impact lol. And since PFF is probably a pretty loose operation I don't think we need super valuable people in society's talent being wasted grading Star by a marginally more accurate model. I'm sure the PFF graders are great and all.. and I think with infinite data you can be really accurate with grades more than most end up dismissing it.. so long as the graders are smart, technical, know football and essentially address the same problems you bring up. I say we team up and create a competitor to PFF mjt338. Only we create an algorithm secretly created for Bills inflation of course. Edited February 1, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 15 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said: My buddy volunteers for PFF because he's a major football nerd and literally does watch a single guard all 4 time slots in a week and measures that given guard's very specific plays such as how many yards he pushed a guy back on a running play, exactly how fast he pulled to his block, where he was positioned as the Quarterback threw the ball (to judge how he helped formed the pocket I guess), etc. You get it. And he's not even the only guy measuring that guard as there's multiple quantifiable stats to watch for on a play. And when there isn't, PFF is just gathering the same data from at lease 2 different sources to check errors (they "promote" guard guys to centers to RBs to the glorious QB PFF volunteer! They demote the bad ones to kickers lol or as the 5th crappy analyst for the same guard that's used with a grain of salt) And it's very idiot proof. I watched him do a game for the heck of it, and he's tasked with very simple metrics and types into some cloud software constantly that automates location, speed, and distance to help so he only punches in the few things needed that need to be seen. He does it for free, got promoted from RG to LG (second string of course). So apparently PFF has an absolute legion of these guys doing this for free, with overhead going to automated software developers and real analysts that find a way to compile the crapload of data (which I imagine aren't that many and automate as much as possible) It's boring as hell and we were drinking while we did it lol. But I'm pretty sure they have every player looked at every play, often by multiple people. The limitations are clearly quantifying football, and probably most valuable: the quality graders are making with the data they receive. But they have all the data in the world to analyze and come up with solutions to what you're saying. I too find it fascinating.. I mean it's basically my job to do the same thing for.... boring business crap: quantifying qualitative value. Heck PFF is my dream job to be honest. Think about solutions to the problem you mentioned; finding a player's role in a play. With every bit of data available you could possibly say Star gets pushed back less than a specific guard's average or has 2 OL recorded pushing Star back both less than their average push. To differentiate him from someone trying to blow up a play is tough.. figure out how far each OL went, which DL they came in contact with, the distance between the DL and the carrier at the beginning and end of play and you mitigate a handful of this. On a whole year's worth of plays with this data, I'd say you have an okay guestimate on aggregating Aaron Donald's penetrating his man yet missing the carrier or getting the carrier for a loss vs aggregating Star's push with OL and the need to differentiate role is mitigated by which result was more impactful. So basically you need the top $700,000 per year financial quants working for Goldman Sachs investment on PFF to really nail Star's impact lol. And since PFF is probably a pretty loose operation I don't think we need super valuable people in society's talent being wasted grading Star by a marginally more accurate model. I'm sure the PFF graders are great and all.. and I think with infinite data you can be really accurate with grades more than most end up dismissing it.. so long as the graders are smart, technical, know football and essentially address the same problems you bring up. I say we team up and create a competitor to PFF mjt338. Only we create an algorithm secretly created for Bills inflation of course. Hmmm. I wonder how much a site like that brings in.... I agree with all of your points. I actually like Pro Football Focus, and love to read their grades - along with multiple other All-22 Reviews. Just like with any "statistic" - a person needs to understand the limitations of what it has the ability to tell you. They can be valuable and fun to discuss. But all the film in the world simply can't tell you what a player was supposed to do, unless you are part of the coaching staff. It's the same way when looking at passing yards, touchdowns, etc. Statistically, Kirk Cousins was a Top 5 quarterback this year. But most Vikings fans feel he was a tremendous disappointment. Statistically, Josh Allen was near the bottom of all starting quarterbacks this year. But most Bills fans are excited and optimistic about his play. Bottom line. Sean McDermott's defense has always been about letting the linebackers be the stars and make the plays. Guys like Star Lotulelei do the grunt work, occupy blockers and keep the LBs clean to make the plays. 17 hours ago, Turk71 said: I have seen a lot of comments about how a space eater like Star does not grade well on pff because his job is to occupy blockers. I don't know how pff grades dts but I do know that Star is not the only guy in the league to play one tech dt in a 4 man front. I also know that however they are grading these guys, Star has been at or near the bottom of these one tech dts the last couple years. Pff may or may not be any good; but if you look at their rankings of the different positions, the guys at the top and the guys at the bottom seem to make sense and align mostly with my own perceptions. That said, I think Star is definitely a Bill for a couple more years at least and I hope he plays his role well whether pff sees it or not. Not all 1-Tech DTs have the same job. Just the same alignment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Lotulelei was definitely overpaid, but they'd take on a lot of dead money if they got rid of him and they wouldn't get much in return. They've already talked up Shady, so I kinda doubt they move him. I don't think they'd get much for him anyways. Ivory is a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM57 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 11:38 PM, MJS said: I don't doubt it, but he was practically invisible to my eyes. Definitely not worth 11 million a year, I don't think. - Yes, that's the point, his role is to eat up blockers and space and keep the others free to make plays. - agreed, there are lots of guys in the league that can play that role for half the price or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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